Shoe Station (SHOE)
Market Price (9/4/2026): $13.71 | Market Cap: $372.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Shoe Station (SHOE)
Market Price (9/4/2026): $13.71Market Cap: $372.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 24%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 20%, FCF Yield is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.71 | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% Key risksSHOE key risks include [1] potential underperformance and significant execution challenges with its capital-intensive "rebanner" strategy, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 24%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 20%, FCF Yield is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.71 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
| Key risksSHOE key risks include [1] potential underperformance and significant execution challenges with its capital-intensive "rebanner" strategy, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Shoe Station (SHOE) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Financial Performance: Shoe Station Group experienced a significant decline in its financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended in May 2026. Net sales decreased by 2.5% to $270.7 million year-over-year, and net income plummeted by 160.2%, resulting in a net loss of $5.6 million. Looking ahead, analysts are forecasting continued weakness for fiscal Q2 2026, expecting revenue to fall to $298.9 million from $306.4 million in the prior year, alongside anticipated drops in net profits and cash flows.
2. Failed Strategic Initiatives and Leadership Instability: The company's stock decline was exacerbated by the abandonment of a key strategic initiative to convert 101 stores to its Shoe Station banner. This program, which involved a 35% increase in capital expenditures and cost approximately $0.66 per share of earnings, resulted in an $8.3 million impairment charge and plans for 18–24 store closures. This strategic misstep led to the termination of the CEO responsible for the initiative, who received a $4.8 million severance package, and as of September 1, 2026, the company continues to operate with an Interim President and CEO, Cliff Sifford, indicating ongoing leadership uncertainty.
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Shoe Station (SHOE) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Financial Performance: Shoe Station Group experienced a significant decline in its financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended in May 2026. Net sales decreased by 2.5% to $270.7 million year-over-year, and net income plummeted by 160.2%, resulting in a net loss of $5.6 million. Looking ahead, analysts are forecasting continued weakness for fiscal Q2 2026, expecting revenue to fall to $298.9 million from $306.4 million in the prior year, alongside anticipated drops in net profits and cash flows.
2. Failed Strategic Initiatives and Leadership Instability: The company's stock decline was exacerbated by the abandonment of a key strategic initiative to convert 101 stores to its Shoe Station banner. This program, which involved a 35% increase in capital expenditures and cost approximately $0.66 per share of earnings, resulted in an $8.3 million impairment charge and plans for 18–24 store closures. This strategic misstep led to the termination of the CEO responsible for the initiative, who received a $4.8 million severance package, and as of September 1, 2026, the company continues to operate with an Interim President and CEO, Cliff Sifford, indicating ongoing leadership uncertainty.
3. Negative Market Sentiment and Broad Industry Headwinds: Shoe Station Group's stock performance was also affected by a generally pessimistic market sentiment within the footwear retail sector. This sentiment is partly driven by shifts in consumer spending on discretionary footwear and increased competition from new product releases by major brands. Adding to the negative perception, Shoe Station Group Inc. was removed from the Russell 2000 Dynamic Index on June 29, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.0% change in SHOE stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.50 | 13.65 | -22.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,220 | 1,220 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.4 | 5.0 | -22.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOE | -22.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.6% | 40.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.9% change in SHOE stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.75 | 13.65 | -30.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,220 | 1,220 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.2 | 5.0 | -30.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOE | -30.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.0% | 32.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 44.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.3% change in SHOE stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.15 | 13.65 | -32.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,220 | 1,220 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.3 | 5.0 | -32.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOE | -32.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 29.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.1% | 40.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.3% change in SHOE stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.44 | 13.65 | -36.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,226 | 1,220 | -0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 6.1% | -24.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.9 | 5.0 | -15.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOE | -36.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.7% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.5% | 45.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHOE Return | 101% | -38% | 29% | 11% | -48% | -18% | -23% |
| Peers Return | 36% | -27% | 22% | 16% | 9% | -5% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHOE Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 69% | 35% | 54% | 52% | 58% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHOE Max Drawdown | -21% | -50% | -32% | -28% | -51% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -47% | -44% | -28% | -36% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GAP, GCO, ZUMZ, REF, TJX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHOE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 616 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 167 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Shoe Station's stock fell -26.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | SHOE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 616 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 167 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 139 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 954 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Shoe Station's stock fell -26.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Shoe Station (SHOE)
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SHOE) operates as a prominent family footwear retailer across the United States. While trading under the symbol SHOE, the company manages two primary retail banners: Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station. Its business model centers on offering a wide selection of footwear for the entire family, making it a go-to destination for various shoe needs.
The company's product offering is comprehensive, encompassing dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children. In addition to footwear, Shoe Carnival, Inc. also provides a range of accessories. These products are retailed through its extensive network of physical stores – comprising 372 Shoe Carnival locations across 35 states and Puerto Rico, and 21 Shoe Station locations primarily in the Southeast – complemented by its robust online presence via shoecarnival.com and a dedicated mobile application.
Shoe Carnival, Inc. primarily serves families and individuals seeking diverse footwear options across various demographics and occasions. Its market reach extends across a significant portion of the United States, with the Shoe Station brand specifically catering to customers in the Southeast. Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, the company has established itself as a key player in the national footwear retail landscape.
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- Footwear: A wide range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children.
- Accessories: Various items sold to complement footwear.
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The public company trading under the symbol SHOE is Shoe Carnival, Inc. Shoe Station is one of the retail banners operated by Shoe Carnival, Inc. As a family footwear retailer, Shoe Carnival, Inc. (including its Shoe Station brand) sells primarily to individual consumers.
The major categories of individual customers it serves are:
- Adult Women: Customers purchasing a variety of shoes, including dress, casual, athletic, sandals, and boots.
- Adult Men: Customers purchasing various types of footwear such as dress, casual, work, athletic shoes, sandals, and boots.
- Children and Youth: Customers (or their parents) purchasing shoes for children and teenagers, covering athletic, casual, and special occasion footwear.
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Cliff Sifford Interim President and Chief Executive Officer
Cliff Sifford was appointed Interim President and Chief Executive Officer of Shoe Station Group in February 2026, also serving as Vice Chairman. He has been with the company since 1997, holding various leadership roles including President and CEO from October 2012 to September 2019, Vice Chairman and CEO from September 2019 to September 2021, and Vice Chairman of the Board from October 2021 before his return to the CEO role. Prior to his initial CEO appointment, he served as General Merchandise Manager.
W. Kerry Jackson Executive Vice President - Chief Financial Officer
W. Kerry Jackson serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Shoe Station Group. He has a long history with the company, having served as Chief Financial Officer for 27 years before his retirement in May 2023. Mr. Jackson rejoined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President, New Business Development, and was appointed Executive Vice President, effective September 28, 2025. He has a total tenure of 35 years with the company.
Marc A. Chilton Senior Executive Vice President - Chief Operating Officer
Marc A. Chilton holds the position of Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.
Tanya E. Gordon Executive Vice President – Chief Merchandising Officer
Tanya E. Gordon is the Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer.
J. Wayne Weaver Chairman of the Board
J. Wayne Weaver is the Chairman of the Board for Shoe Station Group. He is also known as the former owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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The key risks for Shoe Carnival, Inc., which is transitioning its corporate name to Shoe Station Group, Inc. and trading under the symbol SHOE, are primarily related to its strategic transformation, the competitive retail environment, and broader economic factors.
- Challenges with the "Rebanner" Strategy and Shifting Consumer Base: Shoe Carnival is undertaking a significant "rebanner" strategy, converting many of its traditional Shoe Carnival stores to the Shoe Station banner, with a goal for Shoe Station to represent over 80% of its store fleet by March 2027. This initiative requires substantial capital expenditure and investment, which is projected to decrease operating income and earnings per share in the short term. There is a notable risk that this strategic conversion may not meet performance expectations, as some reports indicate negative comparable store sales for Shoe Station and flat gross margins during the transition period. Furthermore, the company is deliberately shifting its focus from its traditional lower-income Shoe Carnival customer to target higher-income shoppers for Shoe Station, who seek more premium products and elevated service. Executing this shift effectively, including attracting the new target demographic while managing the decline in the legacy banner, presents significant operational and market acceptance risks.
- Intense Competition and Evolving Retail Landscape: The footwear retail industry is highly competitive and is undergoing rapid transformation due to evolving consumer preferences and a pronounced shift toward omnichannel shopping. Shoe Station Group faces fierce competition from a diverse array of players, including mid-tier and specialty retailers, large-format discounters, online-only retailers, and direct-to-consumer channels from major brands like Nike and Adidas. The broader shoe store industry, particularly brick-and-mortar formats, has seen revenue growth suppressed by the increasing dominance of mass merchandisers and e-commerce platforms. To remain competitive, the company must continually invest in its e-commerce capabilities and digital infrastructure. Failure to effectively differentiate its offerings or compete on factors such as price, product assortment, in-store experience, and digital fulfillment could adversely impact its financial performance.
- Macroeconomic Conditions and Consumer Discretionary Spending: The business is susceptible to broader economic trends and fluctuations in consumer discretionary spending. Economic downturns or inflationary pressures can lead consumers to trade down to lower-priced alternatives, which can impact sales and profit margins. The traditional lower-income customer base of the Shoe Carnival banner has already experienced economic pressure, contributing to intense industry-wide discounting that erodes margins. Although the Shoe Station banner targets a higher-income demographic, a general decline in consumer confidence or spending across economic segments could still negatively affect the company's overall performance.
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The addressable market for Shoe Station Group Inc.'s main products and services in the U.S. is comprised of the footwear market and the fashion accessories market.
U.S. Footwear Market
The U.S. footwear market was valued at approximately $97.72 billion USD in 2024. It is projected to grow to around $141.89 billion USD by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.80% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates for the U.S. footwear market in 2024 range from $95.1 billion USD to $95.23 billion USD.
U.S. Fashion Accessories Market
The U.S. fashion accessories market generated a revenue of approximately $222.07 billion USD in 2024. This market is anticipated to grow to about $342.99 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2030. Another projection estimates the U.S. fashion accessories market to reach $477.4 billion USD by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2025 to 2034.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Shoe Carnival, Inc. (soon to be Shoe Station Group, Inc., trading under the symbol SHOE) over the next 2-3 years:
- Strategic Multi-Banner Expansion with Focus on Shoe Station: The company is shifting its primary long-term growth vehicle to the Shoe Station banner and is rebranding its corporate name to Shoe Station Group, Inc. to reflect this focus. The strategy involves opening 10-20 net new stores annually, targeting a total of over 500 locations by fiscal year 2028, with new Shoe Station store growth concentrated in high-traffic suburban markets in the South and Midwest. While initially planning extensive rebanners of Shoe Carnival stores to Shoe Station, the company is now adopting a more measured approach, operating both banners as permanent, independent components and focusing on disciplined conversion of Shoe Carnival locations where demographics align with the Shoe Station format.
- Strategic Acquisitions of Other Footwear Retailers: Shoe Carnival, Inc. explicitly intends to pursue strategic acquisitions of other footwear retailers beyond its current Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station banners. The 2024 acquisition of Rogan's Shoes serves as a template, demonstrating the potential for geographic synergy, rapid market share gains, and improved margins through centralized supply chain integration.
- Enhanced E-commerce and Omnichannel Capabilities: The company aims to drive significant growth through its e-commerce platform and by strengthening its omnichannel approach. This includes leveraging its substantial 35-million-member loyalty program to boost online sales and store productivity. Investments in modernizing the e-commerce infrastructure, such as implementing headless commerce architecture and Progressive Web App (PWA) technology, are designed to create seamless customer experiences and extend product assortment reach.
- Optimization of Product Mix and Category Expansion: Shoe Carnival, Inc. is focused on expanding into higher-margin specialty categories like workwear and performance running to diversify its revenue streams. The strategy also involves optimizing the merchandise mix by broadening private-label and exclusive offerings to enhance gross margins, while also strengthening partnerships with national brands such as Nike and Adidas. This includes targeted product strategies like specialized assortments for back-to-school and timed sneaker releases. Following an assessment of rebannered stores, the company is also reconfiguring product assortments at each location to better align with local market demographics and re-engage value-focused customers.
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Share Repurchases
- On December 12, 2025, a new share repurchase program for up to $50 million of outstanding common stock was authorized, effective January 1, 2026, and set to expire on December 31, 2026. This program replaced a prior $50 million authorization from December 11, 2024.
- As of the first quarter of 2026, the company had $50 million remaining under its existing share repurchase authorization.
Outbound Investments
- The company completed the integration of its 28-store Rogan's acquisition into the Shoe Station banner in October 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2025, anticipated capital expenditures ranged from $45 million to $55 million, with $30 million to $35 million specifically allocated to rebanner initiatives aimed at converting Shoe Carnival stores to the Shoe Station banner.
- Year-to-date capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 totaled $38.3 million, primarily directed towards supporting rebannered stores.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to be between $45 million and $60 million, with $30 million to $40 million focused on rebanner initiatives.
Peer Outperformance in Apparel Retail
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOE | Shoe Station | -1.2% | 5.0x | -34.2% | -36.5% | -58.8% | — |
| BKE | Buckle | 0.0% | 9.9x | -18.3% | 52.7% | 83.4% | +142pp |
| VSXY | Victoria's Secret | 2.7% | 28.3x | 220.6% | 271.7% | 9.9% | +69pp |
| GAP | Gap | 0.5% | 6.4x | 1.8% | 110.4% | 8.3% | +67pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -11.3% | 94.6% | 67.6% | LINC 307% · CVSA 244% · PRDO 227% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -7.5% | 14.7% | 37.1% | GRBK 187% · PHM 144% · TOL 134% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -15.5% | 6.9% | 15.9% | MUSA 240% · PAG 183% · ORLY 124% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 15.1% | 44.3% | 10.4% | RCL 244% · MAR 164% · HLT 159% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -21.0% | -7.8% | 8.0% | HD 9% · HVT 9% · LOW 8% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | -6.2% | 28.7% | 5.2% | FIVE 24% · DKS 12% · HZO 7% |
| Distributors | 4 | -6.9% | -25.2% | -7.3% | ARMK 146% · GPC 28% · LKQ -43% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -10.2% | 27.4% | -13.8% | HRB 135% · FTDR 89% · SCI 41% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -3.6% | 18.5% | -14.0% | SGI 60% · LZB 4% · MHK -32% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -10.6% | -14.9% | -15.2% | EAT 344% · CAKE 165% · RAVE 142% |
| Footwear | 9 | 48.6% | 29.2% | -17.0% | WEYS 155% · DECK 24% · SHOO 19% |
| Apparel Retail ← | 25 | -1.6% | 1.7% | -27.0% | ANF 313% · DXLG 195% · URBN 150% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -9.4% | -27.7% | -32.0% | MCRI 108% · RSI 73% · RRR 55% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -2.2% | -13.3% | -33.1% | OSW 125% · JAKK 87% · ESCA 13% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -15.9% | -21.9% | -33.5% | GOLF 85% · HAS 14% · MCFT -13% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -13.8% | -9.7% | -35.0% | MOD 1414% · GTX 290% · STRT 95% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -4.7% | -9.9% | -39.3% | TPR 241% · RL 231% · ELA 212% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 8.6% | 34.1% | -42.9% | KEQU 177% · FLXS 158% · HBB 117% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | 4.9% | 12.6% | -52.7% | DDS 316% · EBAY 51% · AMZN 49% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -16.0% | 4.4% | -61.4% | BBY -3% · UPBD -61% · GME -62% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -62.5% | -50.5% | -70.7% | GM 86% · TSLA 54% · F 52% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -27.5% | -50.1% | -77.9% | TLF 108% · BBW 98% · WINA 78% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -2.9% | -14.2% | -80.7% | AXIL 2398% · GRMN 74% · TBCH -56% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,449 |
| Op Inc LTM | 97 |
| FCF LTM | 85 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 144 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 95 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 33.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 36.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/16/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -45.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $15.00 | $16.98 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.0% | -19.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.1% | 50.1% |
| Downside Capture | 84.38 | 142.46 |
| Upside Capture | -24.02 | 62.81 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.8% | 29.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.53 | 1.05 | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Up Beta | 1.02 | -0.69 | -0.50 | 0.59 | 0.74 | 1.21 |
| Down Beta | 4.84 | 3.08 | 2.80 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.31 |
| Up Capture | -105% | -34% | -49% | 33% | 46% | 79% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 30 | 61 | 119 | 354 |
| Down Capture | 88% | 39% | 64% | 137% | 119% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 34 | 66 | 132 | 396 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOE | -34.3% | 50.1% | -0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 1.4% | 19.5% | -0.05 | 40.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.8% | 1.23 | 29.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.1% | 29.1% | 0.77 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 20.4% | 1.64 | -18.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.7% | 13.6% | 0.50 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.0% | 43.5% | -0.73 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOE | -16.6% | 47.6% | -0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.1% | 24.1% | 0.21 | 49.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 44.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.6% | 18.8% | 0.85 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | 6.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.0% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 36.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.5% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 18.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOE | 0.6% | 53.7% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 48.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 44.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.3% | 0.63 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.1% | 0.36 | 16.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 40.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 10.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/21/2026 | 9.5% | 11.6% | 0.8% |
| 3/26/2026 | -8.1% | -11.1% | 5.8% |
| 11/20/2025 | -6.0% | 0.3% | 10.2% |
| 9/4/2025 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 0.4% |
| 5/30/2025 | 4.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -0.9% | -3.0% | -23.2% |
| 11/21/2024 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 3.5% |
| 9/5/2024 | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -7.6% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.3% | 14.7% | 21.2% |
| Max Negative | -16.5% | -22.1% | -23.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/21/2026 | 9.5% | 11.6% | 0.8% |
| 3/26/2026 | -8.1% | -11.1% | 5.8% |
| 11/20/2025 | -6.0% | 0.3% | 10.2% |
| 9/4/2025 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 0.4% |
| 5/30/2025 | 4.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -0.9% | -3.0% | -23.2% |
| 11/21/2024 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 3.5% |
| 9/5/2024 | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
| 5/23/2024 | 5.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| 3/21/2024 | 8.2% | 8.4% | 1.0% |
| 11/16/2023 | -8.6% | -2.2% | 21.2% |
| 8/29/2023 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 7.4% |
| 5/24/2023 | -6.3% | -10.0% | 2.8% |
| 3/22/2023 | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| 11/16/2022 | -1.0% | 7.8% | -10.9% |
| 8/25/2022 | 11.0% | 5.3% | -7.7% |
| 5/18/2022 | -16.5% | -22.1% | -20.7% |
| 3/16/2022 | 9.7% | 1.3% | -0.4% |
| 11/17/2021 | -0.2% | 0.2% | -15.0% |
| 8/25/2021 | -6.4% | -5.1% | -14.2% |
| 5/19/2021 | 1.7% | 10.8% | 0.5% |
| 3/24/2021 | 6.0% | 14.7% | 18.4% |
| 2/5/2021 | 5.2% | 4.3% | 12.1% |
| 11/18/2020 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| 9/1/2020 | -0.4% | 1.6% | -7.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -7.6% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.3% | 14.7% | 21.2% |
| Max Negative | -16.5% | -22.1% | -23.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/26/2021 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/31/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/09/2019 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2019 | 06/11/2019 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2019 | 04/02/2019 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2018 | 09/11/2018 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2018 | 06/11/2018 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2018 | 04/02/2018 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Inventory Decline | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 65.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 1.12 Bil | 1.14 Bil | 1.15 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 382.50 Mil | 386.24 Mil | 389.98 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 34.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 34.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted SG&A Reduction | Reported | 12.00 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 14.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Tax Rate | Reported | 26.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.5 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | -1.0% | 0.0% | |||||
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 34.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted SG&A expenses decrease | Reported | 12.00 Mil | 13.00 Mil | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.4 | 1.5 | -23.1% | Lower New | Actual: 1.95 for 2025 | ||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 EPS | Reported | 1.8 | 1.95 | 2.1 | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 1.9 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Rebanner Investment | Reported | 25.00 Mil | 27.50 Mil | 30.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Inventory Reduction | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 25.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Apparel Retail Resources |
| Apparel News |
| Just Style |
| Sourcing Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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