Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $455.44 | Market Cap: $1.5 TrilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $455.44Market Cap: $1.5 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 206x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 91x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 283x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 206x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 91x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 283x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TSLA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Tesla's stock moved by approximately 36.1% from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Tesla reported record-breaking vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments in the third quarter of 2025. The company delivered over 497,000 vehicles and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products, exceeding Wall Street's expectations and demonstrating robust operational performance.
2. The company achieved record revenue and free cash flow in Q3 2025. Tesla's total revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $28.1 billion, and it generated nearly $4.0 billion in free cash flow, indicating strong financial health and increasing cash generation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSLA Return | 743% | 50% | -65% | 102% | 63% | 13% | 1530% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 43% | -34% | 26% | -1% | 33% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSLA Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 52% | 40% | 53% | 55% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSLA Max Drawdown | -14% | -20% | -69% | -12% | -43% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -3% | -45% | -16% | -21% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, F, PCAR, RIVN, OSK. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 198 days | 120 days |
Compare to GM, F, PCAR, RIVN, OSK
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -73.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -73.6% loss requires a 279.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| What Could Light a Fire Under Tesla Stock | |||
| Why Tesla Stock Jumped 60%? | |||
| Is Tesla Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Tesla Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| What Can Trigger Tesla Stock's Slide? | |||
| Can Tesla Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| What Could Send Tesla Stock Soaring | |||
| Tesla Stock on the Edge: 3 Threats You Need to Know | |||
| Tesla Stock Surged 30%, Here's Why | |||
| How Tesla Stock Gained 32% in 3 Months | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Where Could The Next Breakout for Tesla Stock Come From | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| What Is Happening With Tesla Stock? | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Priced for AI, Selling Cars: The Disconnect in Tesla’s 2025 Valuation | December 1st, 2025 | ||
| Does Tesla Stock Lead the Pack? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| Tesla Stock To $274? | November 22nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TSLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tesla
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 91.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.7 |
| Rev LTM | 62,582 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,492 |
| FCF LTM | 1,974 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,660 |
| CFO LTM | 10,233 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,290 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.7 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 9.4 |
| P/E | 15.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10232023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7242023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10242022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4252022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
