Tearsheet

Tesla (TSLA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $474.2 | Market Cap: $1.5 Tril
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Tesla (TSLA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $474.2
Market Cap: $1.5 Tril
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 206x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 91x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 283x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%
2   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8%
4   Key risks
TSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 206x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 91x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 283x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8%
7 Key risks
TSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TSLA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Significant Progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD) Technology and Robotaxi Development.** Elon Musk's confirmation of testing fully driverless vehicles in Austin, Texas, without human occupants, served as a major catalyst for the stock's surge. This advancement was perceived as a crucial step towards realizing Tesla's vision of a profitable robotaxi network, fueling strong investor optimism.

**2. Intensified Focus and Investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Robotics.** Tesla's strategic shift and substantial capital allocation towards AI and robotics, including the development of Optimus (Tesla bot), were highlighted as central to the company's future profitability. This long-term vision resonated with investors, outweighing concerns about short-term sales.

**3. Persistent Investor Conviction in Tesla's Long-Term Narrative.** Despite facing challenges such as intensifying competition, the waning impact of price cuts, and the expiry of EV tax credits leading to weak Q4 2025 sales forecasts, the stock rally was primarily driven by a "referendum on belief." Investors maintained conviction in Tesla's potential to dominate in autonomy and for its software capabilities to outperform traditional hardware.

**4. Strong Positive Stock Momentum Leading to Record Highs.** Tesla's stock demonstrated significant upward momentum, including a 9% return in August 2025 and an 18% gain in the month leading up to mid-December 2025. The share price reached an all-time high of $489.88 on December 16, 2025, reflecting a substantial overall increase during the period.

**5. Optimistic Outlook for Future Growth and Innovation.** Elon Musk's projections for "epic" growth in 2026 and beyond, driven by the monetization of the autonomous fleet and the anticipated launch of a low-cost EV, bolstered investor confidence. These forward-looking statements reinforced the belief in Tesla's continued innovation and market expansion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TSLA Return743%50%-65%102%63%21%1657%
Peers Return-56%-1%-18%33%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TSLA Win Rate75%67%17%67%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate42%38%45%45%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TSLA Max Drawdown-14%-20%-69%-12%-43%-45% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-34%-38%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTSLAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven279.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven708 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven198 days120 days

Compare to GM, PCAR, F, RIVN, OSK


In The Past

Tesla's stock fell -73.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -73.6% loss requires a 279.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Tesla (TSLA)

Interactive Breakdown

Tesla Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Tesla (TSLA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TSLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tesla

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TSLAGMFRIVNLCIDRUNMedian
NameTesla General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Lucid Sunrun  
Mkt Price467.2680.5113.3117.6311.1317.0817.35
Mkt Cap1,507.876.053.021.53.53.937.3
Rev LTM95,633187,435189,5885,8351,0662,31750,734
Op Inc LTM4,8688,0783,619-3,413-3,170-3581,631
FCF LTM6,834-1,74911,897-489-3,383-3,661-1,119
FCF 3Y Avg4,719-2,9497,967-3,945-3,267-3,443-3,108
CFO LTM15,74824,21220,4261,085-2,549-7778,416
CFO 3Y Avg14,13022,25216,306-2,709-2,391-8036,664

Growth & Margins

TSLAGMFRIVNLCIDRUNMedian
NameTesla General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Lucid Sunrun  
Rev Chg LTM-1.6%2.6%3.7%28.2%45.9%13.8%8.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.3%8.6%7.8%103.0%45.2%3.3%8.9%
Rev Chg Q11.6%-0.3%9.4%78.3%68.3%34.9%23.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%-0.1%2.3%13.3%14.7%8.8%6.0%
Op Mgn LTM5.1%4.3%1.9%-58.5%-297.5%-15.4%-6.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.3%5.8%2.7%-113.0%-384.2%-27.1%-12.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.1%-1.4%0.3%11.4%25.3%7.5%3.9%
CFO/Rev LTM16.5%12.9%10.8%18.6%-239.2%-33.5%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.7%12.3%8.9%-69.0%-296.8%-35.7%-13.4%
FCF/Rev LTM7.1%-0.9%6.3%-8.4%-317.5%-158.0%-4.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%-1.6%4.3%-95.2%-406.8%-154.2%-48.4%

Valuation

TSLAGMFRIVNLCIDRUNMedian
NameTesla General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Lucid Sunrun  
Mkt Cap1,507.876.053.021.53.53.937.3
P/S15.00.30.33.17.01.72.4
P/EBIT205.910.37.3-5.5-3.4-1.23.1
P/E282.618.910.1-5.0-3.3-1.64.3
P/CFO91.12.42.316.5-2.9-5.12.4
Total Yield0.4%6.4%13.6%-20.0%-30.7%-61.8%-9.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%3.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.5%-5.8%17.2%-24.9%-36.0%-99.4%-15.3%
D/E0.02.33.50.40.43.71.3
Net D/E-0.01.82.6-0.00.13.50.9

Returns

TSLAGMFRIVNLCIDRUNMedian
NameTesla General .Ford Mot.Rivian A.Lucid Sunrun  
1M Rtn14.3%18.8%3.3%18.6%-13.8%-8.0%8.8%
3M Rtn9.7%37.4%15.5%24.9%-45.3%7.4%12.6%
6M Rtn45.1%68.2%30.8%28.0%-49.9%178.6%38.0%
12M Rtn-2.6%59.0%43.4%19.9%-59.7%69.8%31.6%
3Y Rtn211.0%129.8%39.3%-21.6%-84.9%-41.4%8.9%
1M Excs Rtn13.5%18.1%2.6%17.8%-14.5%-8.8%8.1%
3M Excs Rtn10.7%34.8%13.3%18.7%-47.1%3.4%12.0%
6M Excs Rtn32.7%55.8%18.4%15.6%-62.2%166.2%25.6%
12M Excs Rtn-4.0%43.8%26.5%11.6%-67.9%57.7%19.0%
3Y Excs Rtn110.0%47.4%-43.0%-99.6%-155.0%-111.0%-71.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive segment90,73877,55351,03429,54223,047
Energy generation and storage segment6,0353,9092,7891,9941,531
Total96,77381,46253,82331,53624,578


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity78,303,390
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.0%
Average Daily Volume81,018,337
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity3,227,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/2/2025-5.1%-4.5%-4.2%
7/2/20255.0%3.0%0.6%
4/2/20255.3%-17.4%4.5%
1/2/2025-6.1%-2.2%-5.0%
10/2/2024-3.5%-5.2%-0.2%
7/2/202410.2%25.0%10.6%
4/2/20241.1%6.2%8.0%
1/2/2024-4.0%-5.4%-24.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151213
# Negative91211
Median Positive5.0%5.1%23.7%
Median Negative-6.1%-5.1%-13.4%
Max Positive13.5%26.1%81.3%
Max Negative-12.2%-17.4%-24.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023129202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231023202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023724202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023424202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022131202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221024202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021207202210-K 12/31/2021