Tearsheet

Murphy USA (MUSA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $390.4 | Market Cap: $7.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Murphy USA (MUSA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $390.4
Market Cap: $7.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MUSA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report.

Murphy USA reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, which presented a mixed picture. While the company's net income decreased year-over-year, partly due to a restructuring charge, its diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.25 surpassed the consensus estimate of $6.60. Conversely, total fuel contribution declined due to lower margins, despite a slight increase in retail gallons, and revenue of $5.11 billion missed analyst expectations. However, merchandise contribution dollars saw a significant 11.3% increase compared to the prior year. This combination of strong EPS and merchandise growth against lower net income and fuel margins likely introduced volatility to the stock.

2. Substantial Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend.

Concurrent with its Q3 2025 earnings release on October 29, 2025, Murphy USA announced a significant increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it by 19% to $0.63 per share. This move signals confidence in the company's financial health and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which typically has a positive impact on investor sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MUSA Return12%53%41%28%41%-22%241%
Peers Return40%30%-20%18%14%9%112%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MUSA Win Rate50%58%50%67%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%72%50%57%52%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MUSA Max Drawdown-30%-6%-15%-14%-1%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-4%-32%-15%-23%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COST, CASY, AN, RH, HTZ. See MUSA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMUSAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-24.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven126 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven463 days120 days

Compare to COST, CASY, AN, RH, HTZ


In The Past

Murphy USA's stock fell -24.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2022. A -24.7% loss requires a 32.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Murphy USA (MUSA)

Better Bets than Murphy USA (MUSA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MUSA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Murphy USA

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MUSACOSTCASYANRHHTZMedian
NameMurphy U.Costco W.Casey's .AutoNati.RH Hertz Gl. 
Mkt Price390.41922.26555.30214.34162.315.22302.38
Mkt Cap7.6409.520.68.13.01.67.8
Rev LTM19,479275,23516,41027,9153,3378,51617,945
Op Inc LTM74010,3838501,284357-677795
FCF LTM3657,837666-178-54-8,713155
FCF 3Y Avg4447,07047657-23-8,194251
CFO LTM83413,3351,1821111741,8461,008
CFO 3Y Avg83111,9149874082182,136909

Growth & Margins

MUSACOSTCASYANRHHTZMedian
NameMurphy U.Costco W.Casey's .AutoNati.RH Hertz Gl. 
Rev Chg LTM-8.0%8.2%8.7%6.1%9.6%-7.4%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.7%6.6%4.9%1.3%-4.1%-0.1%0.6%
Rev Chg Q-8.2%8.1%11.5%6.9%8.4%-3.8%7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.2%2.4%2.9%1.6%2.1%-1.1%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM3.8%3.8%5.2%4.6%10.7%-7.9%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.8%3.6%4.8%5.2%12.1%2.8%4.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.0%0.2%-0.0%0.8%2.9%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.3%4.8%7.2%0.4%5.2%21.7%5.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.0%4.6%6.4%1.5%6.8%23.7%5.5%
FCF/Rev LTM1.9%2.8%4.1%-0.6%-1.6%-102.3%0.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.1%2.7%3.1%0.2%-0.8%-91.5%1.2%

Valuation

MUSACOSTCASYANRHHTZMedian
NameMurphy U.Costco W.Casey's .AutoNati.RH Hertz Gl. 
Mkt Cap7.6409.520.68.13.01.67.8
P/S0.41.51.20.31.10.20.7
P/EBIT10.937.522.36.19.8-176.210.3
P/E16.250.732.612.433.2-2.024.4
P/CFO9.530.816.074.020.31.118.2
Total Yield6.7%2.2%3.5%8.1%3.0%-48.8%3.2%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.6%2.1%3.5%1.1%-1.3%-440.5%1.6%
D/E0.30.00.21.21.19.30.7
Net D/E0.3-0.00.11.21.18.80.7

Returns

MUSACOSTCASYANRHHTZMedian
NameMurphy U.Costco W.Casey's .AutoNati.RH Hertz Gl. 
1M Rtn6.1%-0.6%8.1%8.1%-4.6%5.7%5.9%
3M Rtn5.3%-2.8%11.3%-2.7%-26.6%-3.5%-2.7%
6M Rtn-7.3%-12.1%24.2%17.0%-8.9%-14.0%-8.1%
12M Rtn-27.5%-5.6%33.6%18.8%-57.2%15.7%5.1%
3Y Rtn37.4%94.3%141.1%77.1%-42.2%-69.1%57.2%
1M Excs Rtn6.1%-0.6%8.1%8.1%-4.5%5.7%5.9%
3M Excs Rtn-0.7%-8.7%6.2%-10.4%-36.3%-9.2%-9.0%
6M Excs Rtn-22.0%-26.8%9.4%2.2%-23.6%-28.7%-22.8%
12M Excs Rtn-41.9%-18.2%19.0%6.3%-71.4%-7.5%-12.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-39.7%8.2%62.1%6.8%-113.8%-141.9%-16.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Marketing21,52923,44517,36011,26414,034
Other revenues01100
Total21,52923,44617,36011,26414,035


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Marketing4,0623,7943,5692,4182,305
All other assets278329   
Other revenues  479268382
Total4,3404,1234,0482,6862,687


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,542,170
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202540.4%
Average Daily Volume249,915
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.17
Basic Shares Quantity19,546,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211028202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0MURPHY ROBERT MADISON 8062025Buy367.015,0001,835,038142,829,121Form
1Haley David C. 5282025Buy435.581,000435,580435,580Form
2Phillips Jeanne Linder 3052025Sell452.31797360,4871,062,464Form
3Bacon Renee MSVP, Sales & Ops & CMO3042025Sell469.582,000939,1602,783,342Form
4Turner Rosemary 2142025Sell495.00400198,000196,515Form