Murphy USA (MUSA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $409.57 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Murphy USA (MUSA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $409.57Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Key risksMUSA key risks include [1] declining same-store fuel demand driven by the evolving energy and consumer landscape and [2] a notably elevated debt-to-equity ratio. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5% |
| Key risksMUSA key risks include [1] declining same-store fuel demand driven by the evolving energy and consumer landscape and [2] a notably elevated debt-to-equity ratio. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MUSA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that likely contributed to the approximately 9% movement in Murphy USA (MUSA) stock during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report with Mixed Results: Murphy USA reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025. While net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 were lower year-over-year, the reported EPS of $7.25 significantly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.60 (adjusted for non-recurring items). Revenue also surpassed analyst expectations at $5.11 billion. This mixed performance, particularly beating adjusted EPS and revenue estimates while showing a decline in reported net income, likely introduced volatility and contributed to stock movement.
2. Significant Shareholder Returns through Buybacks and Increased Dividends: The company announced a substantial capital allocation strategy, including the authorization of a new $2 billion share repurchase program set to commence after the existing program is completed. Additionally, Murphy USA increased its quarterly cash dividend by 19% to $0.63 per share, payable December 1, 2025, following a 6% increase to $0.53 per share payable on September 4, 2025. These actions signal strong financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, which typically has a positive impact on stock performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MUSA Return | 12% | 53% | 41% | 28% | 41% | -18% | 259% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 14% | 28% | 17% | -2% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MUSA Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 60% | 60% | 56% | 44% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MUSA Max Drawdown | -30% | -6% | -15% | -14% | -1% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -7% | -9% | -15% | -26% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CASY, SUN, DK, ARKO. See MUSA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MUSA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 463 days | 120 days |
Compare to COST, CASY, AN, RH, HTZ
In The Past
Murphy USA's stock fell -24.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2022. A -24.7% loss requires a 32.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MUSA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Murphy USA
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 220.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 16,970 |
| Op Inc LTM | 732 |
| FCF LTM | 367 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 268 |
| CFO LTM | 817 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 623 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 4.4 |
| P/E | 20.4 |
| P/CFO | 7.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 1.7 |
| Net D/E | 1.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 41.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 21,529 | 23,445 | 17,360 | 11,264 | 14,034 |
| Other revenues | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 21,529 | 23,446 | 17,360 | 11,264 | 14,035 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 4,062 | 3,794 | 3,569 | 2,418 | 2,305 |
| All other assets | 278 | ||||
| Other revenues | 329 | 479 | 268 | 382 | |
| Total | 4,340 | 4,123 | 4,048 | 2,686 | 2,687 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -7.3% | -6.5% | -1.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -11.2% | -9.9% | -8.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | -12.3% | -13.1% | -15.9% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.2% | -4.6% | -11.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.3% | 8.2% | 16.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 2.0% | -1.0% | 1.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | -3.7% | -1.0% | 6.7% |
| 2/7/2024 | 9.2% | 6.5% | 13.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -5.1% | -8.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.3% | 15.3% | 21.0% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -13.1% | -15.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | MURPHY ROBERT MADISON | 8062025 | Buy | 367.01 | 5,000 | 1,835,038 | 142,829,121 | Form | |
| 1 | Haley David C. | 5282025 | Buy | 435.58 | 1,000 | 435,580 | 435,580 | Form | |
| 2 | Phillips Jeanne Linder | 3052025 | Sell | 452.31 | 797 | 360,487 | 1,062,464 | Form | |
| 3 | Bacon Renee M | SVP, Sales & Ops & CMO | 3042025 | Sell | 469.58 | 2,000 | 939,160 | 2,783,342 | Form |
| 4 | Turner Rosemary | 2142025 | Sell | 495.00 | 400 | 198,000 | 196,515 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |