Tearsheet

Murphy USA (MUSA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $409.57 | Market Cap: $7.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Murphy USA (MUSA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $409.57
Market Cap: $7.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  Key risks
MUSA key risks include [1] declining same-store fuel demand driven by the evolving energy and consumer landscape and [2] a notably elevated debt-to-equity ratio.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5%
5 Key risks
MUSA key risks include [1] declining same-store fuel demand driven by the evolving energy and consumer landscape and [2] a notably elevated debt-to-equity ratio.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MUSA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that likely contributed to the approximately 9% movement in Murphy USA (MUSA) stock during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:



1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report with Mixed Results: Murphy USA reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025. While net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 were lower year-over-year, the reported EPS of $7.25 significantly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.60 (adjusted for non-recurring items). Revenue also surpassed analyst expectations at $5.11 billion. This mixed performance, particularly beating adjusted EPS and revenue estimates while showing a decline in reported net income, likely introduced volatility and contributed to stock movement.

2. Significant Shareholder Returns through Buybacks and Increased Dividends: The company announced a substantial capital allocation strategy, including the authorization of a new $2 billion share repurchase program set to commence after the existing program is completed. Additionally, Murphy USA increased its quarterly cash dividend by 19% to $0.63 per share, payable December 1, 2025, following a 6% increase to $0.53 per share payable on September 4, 2025. These actions signal strong financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, which typically has a positive impact on stock performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MUSA Return12%53%41%28%41%-18%259%
Peers Return-10%14%28%17%-2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MUSA Win Rate50%58%50%67%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate54%60%60%56%44%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MUSA Max Drawdown-30%-6%-15%-14%-1%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-7%-9%-15%-26%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CASY, SUN, DK, ARKO. See MUSA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMUSAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-24.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven126 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven463 days120 days

Compare to COST, CASY, AN, RH, HTZ


In The Past

Murphy USA's stock fell -24.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2022. A -24.7% loss requires a 32.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Murphy USA (MUSA)

Better Bets than Murphy USA (MUSA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MUSA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Murphy USA

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MUSACASYSUNDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Sunoco Delek US ARKO  
Mkt Price409.61554.73-31.535.04220.57
Mkt Cap7.421.07.31.90.67.3
Rev LTM19,35116,97021,87010,6677,84116,970
Op Inc LTM732897985-5995732
FCF LTM367682373-74137367
FCF 3Y Avg408497268-21576268
CFO LTM8171,258923-130171817
CFO 3Y Avg8081,033623230192623

Growth & Margins

MUSACASYSUNDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Sunoco Delek US ARKO  
Rev Chg LTM-6.1%13.3%-5.2%-20.5%-12.6%-6.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.4%4.5%-4.0%-17.2%-4.1%-4.1%
Rev Chg Q-2.5%14.2%4.9%-5.1%-11.3%-2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%3.4%1.3%-1.4%-3.2%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM3.8%5.3%4.5%-0.6%1.2%3.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.7%5.0%3.4%-0.2%1.2%3.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%0.1%0.6%3.9%-0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.2%7.4%4.2%-1.2%2.2%4.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.9%6.6%2.8%1.3%2.2%2.8%
FCF/Rev LTM1.9%4.0%1.7%-6.9%0.5%1.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%3.2%1.2%-2.2%0.9%1.2%

Valuation

MUSACASYSUNDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Sunoco Delek US ARKO  
Mkt Cap7.421.07.31.90.67.3
P/S0.41.20.30.20.10.3
P/EBIT--6.4-10.64.44.4
P/E15.734.620.4-3.827.720.4
P/CFO9.016.77.4-14.93.07.4
Total Yield6.9%3.3%7.2%-23.3%6.3%6.3%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.4%2.3%3.2%2.7%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--4.2%-12.2%10.1%4.2%
D/E--1.51.75.01.7
Net D/E--1.01.44.41.4

Returns

MUSACASYSUNDKARKOMedian
NameMurphy U.Casey's .Sunoco Delek US ARKO  
1M Rtn14.3%3.4%--21.1%20.6%8.9%
3M Rtn3.1%0.0%-1.8%1.7%1.8%
6M Rtn0.8%9.8%-50.5%21.6%15.7%
12M Rtn-23.7%32.2%-89.5%-29.4%4.3%
3Y Rtn45.3%134.9%-37.2%-39.2%41.2%
1M Excs Rtn13.6%2.7%--21.8%19.8%8.1%
3M Excs Rtn6.1%0.8%--2.6%-0.3%0.3%
6M Excs Rtn-11.5%-2.6%-38.1%9.2%3.3%
12M Excs Rtn-36.3%19.9%-79.1%-40.0%-8.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-23.7%61.4%--35.6%-110.2%-29.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Marketing21,52923,44517,36011,26414,034
Other revenues01100
Total21,52923,44617,36011,26414,035


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Marketing4,0623,7943,5692,4182,305
All other assets278    
Other revenues 329479268382
Total4,3404,1234,0482,6862,687


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,457,469
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.5%
Average Daily Volume258,425
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.64
Basic Shares Quantity19,029,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-7.3%-6.5%-1.5%
7/30/2025-11.2%-9.9%-8.1%
5/7/2025-12.3%-13.1%-15.9%
2/5/2025-3.2%-4.6%-11.6%
10/30/20243.3%8.2%16.0%
7/31/20242.0%-1.0%1.2%
5/1/2024-3.7%-1.0%6.7%
2/7/20249.2%6.5%13.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111315
# Negative12108
Median Positive3.3%2.9%5.8%
Median Negative-3.7%-5.1%-8.0%
Max Positive14.3%15.3%21.0%
Max Negative-12.3%-13.1%-15.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0MURPHY ROBERT MADISON 8062025Buy367.015,0001,835,038142,829,121Form
1Haley David C. 5282025Buy435.581,000435,580435,580Form
2Phillips Jeanne Linder 3052025Sell452.31797360,4871,062,464Form
3Bacon Renee MSVP, Sales & Ops & CMO3042025Sell469.582,000939,1602,783,342Form
4Turner Rosemary 2142025Sell495.00400198,000196,515Form