Murphy USA (MUSA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $390.4 | Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Murphy USA (MUSA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $390.4Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Liquid Fuels Distribution & Retail, and Physical Retail & Convenience Hubs. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MUSA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report.
Murphy USA reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, which presented a mixed picture. While the company's net income decreased year-over-year, partly due to a restructuring charge, its diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.25 surpassed the consensus estimate of $6.60. Conversely, total fuel contribution declined due to lower margins, despite a slight increase in retail gallons, and revenue of $5.11 billion missed analyst expectations. However, merchandise contribution dollars saw a significant 11.3% increase compared to the prior year. This combination of strong EPS and merchandise growth against lower net income and fuel margins likely introduced volatility to the stock.
2. Substantial Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend.
Concurrent with its Q3 2025 earnings release on October 29, 2025, Murphy USA announced a significant increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it by 19% to $0.63 per share. This move signals confidence in the company's financial health and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which typically has a positive impact on investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MUSA Return | 12% | 53% | 41% | 28% | 41% | -22% | 241% |
| Peers Return | 40% | 30% | -20% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 112% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MUSA Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 72% | 50% | 57% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MUSA Max Drawdown | -30% | -6% | -15% | -14% | -1% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -4% | -32% | -15% | -23% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COST, CASY, AN, RH, HTZ. See MUSA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MUSA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 463 days | 120 days |
Compare to COST, CASY, AN, RH, HTZ
In The Past
Murphy USA's stock fell -24.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2022. A -24.7% loss requires a 32.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MUSA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Murphy USA
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 302.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 17,945 |
| Op Inc LTM | 795 |
| FCF LTM | 155 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 251 |
| CFO LTM | 1,008 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 909 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 10.3 |
| P/E | 24.4 |
| P/CFO | 18.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 57.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 21,529 | 23,445 | 17,360 | 11,264 | 14,034 |
| Other revenues | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 21,529 | 23,446 | 17,360 | 11,264 | 14,035 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 4,062 | 3,794 | 3,569 | 2,418 | 2,305 |
| All other assets | 278 | 329 | |||
| Other revenues | 479 | 268 | 382 | ||
| Total | 4,340 | 4,123 | 4,048 | 2,686 | 2,687 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | MURPHY ROBERT MADISON | 8062025 | Buy | 367.01 | 5,000 | 1,835,038 | 142,829,121 | Form | |
| 1 | Haley David C. | 5282025 | Buy | 435.58 | 1,000 | 435,580 | 435,580 | Form | |
| 2 | Phillips Jeanne Linder | 3052025 | Sell | 452.31 | 797 | 360,487 | 1,062,464 | Form | |
| 3 | Bacon Renee M | SVP, Sales & Ops & CMO | 3042025 | Sell | 469.58 | 2,000 | 939,160 | 2,783,342 | Form |
| 4 | Turner Rosemary | 2142025 | Sell | 495.00 | 400 | 198,000 | 196,515 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |