Modine Manufacturing (MOD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $128.41 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Modine Manufacturing (MOD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $128.41Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79% | ||
| Key risksMOD key risks include [1] a high customer concentration, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 79% |
| Key risksMOD key risks include [1] a high customer concentration, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MOD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Margin Pressure from Data Center Expansion Costs: Modine's shares tumbled after the company reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on October 28, 2025, despite beating adjusted earnings expectations. Investors focused on a decline in gross margin by 290 basis points to 22.3%, primarily due to increased costs associated with capacity expansion for data center products. The Climate Solutions segment, which includes data center operations, saw its gross margin drop 440 basis points compared to the prior year, with the CEO noting "temporary operating inefficiencies" as new capacity was brought online.
2. Negative Technical Signals and Downtrend: Several analyses in December 2025 indicated a bearish outlook for Modine Manufacturing's stock. As of December 17, 2025, Modine's stock held sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages, contributing to a negative forecast. The stock experienced a -18.46% loss in the two weeks leading up to December 17, 2025, and a -13.62% decline in 5 out of 10 days leading up to December 16, 2025. The stock's downtrend was noted to have started around October 29, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MOD Return | 63% | -20% | 97% | 201% | 94% | 20% | 1700% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 9% | -19% | 15% | -25% | 15% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MOD Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 35% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MOD Max Drawdown | -61% | -24% | -24% | -2% | -3% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -9% | -41% | -14% | -37% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MOD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 188 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 273.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,197 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3374.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,223 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA
In The Past
Modine Manufacturing's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MOD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Modine Manufacturing
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,816 |
| Op Inc LTM | 327 |
| FCF LTM | 275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 274 |
| CFO LTM | 398 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 378 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.2 |
| P/E | 15.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.8% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1,071 | 843 | 778 | ||
| Climate Solutions | 413 | 335 | 292 | ||
| Performance Technologies | 368 | 388 | 357 | ||
| Automotive | 124 | 272 | |||
| Building heating, ventilating, air conditioning (BHVAC) | 111 | 102 | |||
| Commercial and Industrial Solutions (CIS) | 609 | 618 | |||
| Corporate and eliminations | -6 | 126 | |||
| Heavy Duty Equipment (HDE) | 439 | 417 | |||
| Total | 1,852 | 1,566 | 1,427 | 1,277 | 1,536 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -4.2% | -9.8% | -1.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | 18.4% | 20.2% | 25.4% |
| 5/20/2025 | -11.7% | -14.0% | -8.4% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.7% | -1.4% | -22.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -7.2% | -13.4% | 2.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 18.9% | 2.5% | 15.8% |
| 5/21/2024 | -4.7% | -4.9% | -7.3% |
| 1/30/2024 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 34.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 13.3% | 18.5% | 25.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -9.8% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 30.4% | 37.7% | 58.9% |
| Max Negative | -40.8% | -35.9% | -40.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5212025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5222024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5262022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McGinnis Eric S | President, Climate Solutions | 8262025 | Sell | 140.65 | 20,868 | 2,935,084 | 3,413,716 | Form |
| 1 | WILLIAMS MARSHA C | 8132025 | Sell | 134.77 | 25,761 | 3,471,908 | 16,265,715 | Form | |
| 2 | Lucareli Michael B | EVP, CFO | 8062025 | Sell | 140.00 | 25,000 | 3,500,000 | 5,868,800 | Form |
| 3 | WULFSOHN WILLIAM A | 3052025 | Buy | 79.43 | 2,530 | 200,958 | 578,012 | Form | |
| 4 | Lucareli Michael B | EVP, CFO | 2102025 | Sell | 100.77 | 2,700 | 272,074 | 16,105,850 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |