Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.54 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.54Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 7.0% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 58% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 7.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 58% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FTDR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Frontdoor (FTDR) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:
1. Revenue Miss Against Analyst Expectations: Despite reporting a 14% increase in revenue to $618 million for the third quarter of 2025, Frontdoor's reported revenue fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of $623.3 million. Furthermore, the updated full-year 2025 revenue guidance, while raised, was slightly below the prevailing analyst sales estimate, which may have dampened investor enthusiasm.
2. Concerns Over Soft Member Growth: Analysts highlighted "soft member growth in its core home warranty segment" as a "main risk" for Frontdoor, even amidst generally positive financial results. This indicated investor apprehension regarding the long-term sustainability of organic growth within the company's primary business.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTDR Return | 6% | -27% | -43% | 69% | 55% | -3% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 25% | -12% | 20% | 13% | -2% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTDR Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 31% | 40% | 25% | 35% | 32% | 41% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTDR Max Drawdown | -36% | -35% | -47% | 0% | -16% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -5% | -23% | -9% | -7% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSC, MEDG, WW, DASH, SCI. See FTDR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 265 days | 120 days |
Compare to WSC, MEDG, WW, DASH, SCI
In The Past
Frontdoor's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FTDR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Frontdoor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,318 |
| Op Inc LTM | 549 |
| FCF LTM | 513 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 461 |
| CFO LTM | 888 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 807 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 12.0 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Collins Kathryn M | SVP & Chief Revenue Officer | 8192025 | Sell | 59.02 | 9,429 | 556,484 | 577,377 | Form |
| 1 | Boland Darrin Steve | 3052025 | Buy | 42.75 | 5,000 | 213,750 | 213,750 | Form | |
| 2 | COBB WILLIAM C | CEO | 3032025 | Buy | 42.22 | 5,000 | 211,120 | 633,360 | Form |
| 3 | Iverson Evan | SVP & Chief Operating Officer | 12122024 | Sell | 58.84 | 16,000 | 941,494 | 291,569 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |