Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (8/5/2026): $76.68 | Market Cap: $5.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (8/5/2026): $76.68Market Cap: $5.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.1% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% | Key risksFTDR key risks include [1] significant indebtedness of approximately $2.5 billion that limits financial flexibility and [2] a heavy operational dependence on its large network of independent contractors for service delivery. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% |
| Key risksFTDR key risks include [1] significant indebtedness of approximately $2.5 billion that limits financial flexibility and [2] a heavy operational dependence on its large network of independent contractors for service delivery. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor (FTDR) stock has gained about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat.
Frontdoor reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, with earnings announced on April 30, 2026. The company posted an adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $0.66 by $0.07, a positive surprise of 10.61%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $451.0 million, surpassing expectations of $442.28 million and representing a 5.9% increase year-over-year. This strong performance likely fueled the initial stock appreciation.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Following the better-than-expected fiscal Q1 2026 results, several Wall Street analysts either reaffirmed their positive outlook or raised their price targets for Frontdoor. For example, Truist Financial set an $82.00 price target on July 24, 2026, and Goldman Sachs increased its price target from $67.00 to $71.00 on May 18, 2026. The consensus among analysts is a "Moderate Buy" rating, with an average price target of $74.75.
Show more
Frontdoor (FTDR) stock has gained about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat.
Frontdoor reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, with earnings announced on April 30, 2026. The company posted an adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $0.66 by $0.07, a positive surprise of 10.61%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $451.0 million, surpassing expectations of $442.28 million and representing a 5.9% increase year-over-year. This strong performance likely fueled the initial stock appreciation.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Following the better-than-expected fiscal Q1 2026 results, several Wall Street analysts either reaffirmed their positive outlook or raised their price targets for Frontdoor. For example, Truist Financial set an $82.00 price target on July 24, 2026, and Goldman Sachs increased its price target from $67.00 to $71.00 on May 18, 2026. The consensus among analysts is a "Moderate Buy" rating, with an average price target of $74.75.
3. Strategic Share Repurchases and Increased Institutional Investment.
Frontdoor demonstrated confidence in its valuation by repurchasing $60 million of its shares during fiscal Q1 2026. This action typically signals management's belief in the company's future and can enhance shareholder value. Furthermore, institutional investors showed increased interest, with Cubist Systematic Strategies LLC significantly increasing its holdings in Frontdoor during fiscal Q2 2026 by 309.6%, acquiring an additional 326,112 shares, totaling approximately $25.4 million.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.8% change in FTDR stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.63 | 76.75 | 11.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,119 | 2,119 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 20.8 | 11.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 71 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.8% change in FTDR stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 59.11 | 76.75 | 29.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,042 | 2,119 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 12.3% | -4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.4 | 20.8 | 27.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 71 | 3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 29.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | 22.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.2% | 37.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.2% change in FTDR stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.50 | 76.75 | 31.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,891 | 2,119 | 12.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 12.3% | -2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.4 | 20.8 | 13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 75 | 71 | 5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 31.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.1% | 23.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.5% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 119.8% change in FTDR stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 126.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.92 | 76.75 | 119.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,678 | 2,119 | 26.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 12.3% | 126.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.3 | 20.8 | -33.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 82 | 71 | 15.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 119.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 119.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.4% | 33.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.3% | 35.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTDR Return | -27% | -43% | 69% | 55% | 6% | 32% | 51% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -42% | 33% | 14% | 21% | 9% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTDR Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 38% | 53% | 48% | 55% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTDR Max Drawdown | -44% | -49% | -23% | -16% | -41% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -55% | -42% | -32% | -40% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FAF, ORI, FNF, ANGI, PRCH. See FTDR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 594 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Frontdoor's stock fell -36.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 57.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | FTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 594 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Frontdoor's stock fell -36.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 57.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Frontdoor (FTDR)
Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) is a leading provider of home service plans, often referred to as home warranties, in the United States. Its core business involves offering homeowners comprehensive coverage for the repair or replacement of principal components across approximately 20 major home systems and appliances. This typically includes essential items like electrical and plumbing systems, central heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) units, water heaters, and key kitchen appliances such as refrigerators, dishwashers, and ovens/cooktops.
Beyond its traditional home service plans, Frontdoor has expanded its offerings to include modern home service solutions. The company operates ProConnect, an on-demand home services business that facilitates quick access to professionals for various home repair needs. Furthermore, Frontdoor leverages advanced technology through its Streem platform, which utilizes augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to enable home service professionals to more accurately diagnose issues and efficiently complete repairs.
Frontdoor primarily serves homeowners across the U.S. under a portfolio of well-known brands, including American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, and OneGuard, in addition to its eponymous Frontdoor brand and Streem. The company's objective is to provide peace of mind and simplify home maintenance for its customers by managing unexpected repair costs and facilitating access to qualified service professionals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: AAA for your home
Analogy 2: AppleCare for your entire house
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Home Service Plans: These plans cover the repair or replacement of principal components of major home systems and appliances.
- ProConnect: An on-demand home services business connecting homeowners with professionals for various home repairs.
- Streem: A technology platform that uses augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to help home service professionals diagnose breakdowns and complete repairs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor (FTDR) primarily serves individuals. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
-
Homeowners purchasing comprehensive service plans: These are individuals who subscribe to annual contracts (e.g., under the American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, and OneGuard brands) to cover the repair or replacement of major home systems and appliances. They seek peace of mind, budgeting predictability, and convenience in managing potential home repairs.
-
Homeowners utilizing on-demand home services: This category includes individuals who need immediate repairs or maintenance for specific issues and may use Frontdoor's ProConnect service to connect with home service professionals for ad-hoc services, often outside of a long-term plan.
-
Homebuyers and Sellers: Homeowners who purchase or receive home service plans (often as part of a real estate transaction) to provide coverage during the home buying or selling process. These plans offer protection against unforeseen system or appliance breakdowns for a specified period, benefiting both parties in a real estate deal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bill Cobb, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
Bill Cobb was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Frontdoor in June 2022 and also serves as Chairman of the Board. He joined Frontdoor's board of directors in October 2018 and previously served on the board of its former parent company, ServiceMaster Global Holdings, Inc., from April 2018 until Frontdoor's separation in October 2018. Before Frontdoor, he held significant leadership roles including president and chief executive officer of H&R Block, Inc. from 2011 to 2017. From 2000 to 2008, he held various leadership positions at eBay, Inc., including president of eBay Marketplaces North America. Earlier in his career (1987-2000), Cobb held marketing and executive roles at PepsiCo and Tricon Global Restaurants, such as senior vice president and chief marketing officer for Tricon International and Pizza Hut. He currently serves on the board of directors of Deluxe Corporation.
Jason Bailey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jason Bailey was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontdoor, effective November 10, 2025. He brings over 25 years of progressive leadership experience in finance and public accounting, with more than 15 years spent at Frontdoor and its former publicly traded parent, ServiceMaster. Prior to his current role, Bailey served as Vice President, Finance for Frontdoor. His professional background also includes 11 years in public accounting with Deloitte and Arthur Andersen.
Kathy Collins, Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer
Kathy Collins was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer, effective January 1, 2024. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing and optimizing all revenue-generating activities for Frontdoor's brands, including product and service development, sales, marketing, and corporate partnerships. Previously, she served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Brand Officer for Frontdoor.
Evan Iverson, Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Evan Iverson was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, effective January 1, 2024. He is responsible for overseeing all day-to-day operational functions for the American Home Shield and Frontdoor brands, with a focus on enhancing contractor and member experiences. Iverson joined Frontdoor in January 2019 as Vice President of Operations and subsequently held positions as Vice President of Contractor Relations and Senior Vice President of Contractor Engagement.
Bala Ganesh, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Bala Ganesh assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer for Frontdoor in July 2025. Prior to this, he served as a Frontdoor board director from July 2023 to June 2025. His previous experience includes serving as Chief Technology Officer at OnTrac Logistics and as a Partner at AKF Consulting LLC, a technology consulting firm. He also spent over 10 years at United Parcel Service (UPS) in various technology leadership positions, including Vice President of Engineering, Vice President of Advanced Technology, and Vice President of Advanced Analytics and Revenue Management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Macroeconomic Conditions and Housing Market Sensitivity: Frontdoor's business is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and trends in the housing market. Economic downturns, fluctuations in interest rates, and a cooling housing market can directly lead to reduced consumer spending on home service plans and a decrease in demand for new home warranties. This sensitivity can impact both customer acquisition and retention.
- Rising Costs and Contractor Dependence: The company's profitability is significantly affected by the cost of repairs and replacements of covered home systems and appliances, including the cost of labor and parts. Inflationary pressures and potential tariffs can increase these costs, thereby squeezing profit margins. Furthermore, Frontdoor relies on a vast network of independent contractors. Risks associated with this dependence include the availability and quality of these professionals, the ability to replace contractors in a timely manner if relationships are terminated, and potential increases in contractor costs, all of which can impact service delivery and customer satisfaction.
- Intense Competition: The home services and home warranty market is highly fragmented and competitive, with numerous established players and new entrants vying for market share. This intense competition can exert pressure on pricing, erode profit margins, and necessitate significant investment in marketing and customer acquisition strategies, making it challenging to maintain market position and grow customer numbers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The proliferation of smart home technology, IoT devices, and predictive maintenance solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) operates within significant addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily in the United States.
Home Service Plans
The addressable market for home service plans in the U.S. is substantial. The United States Home Warranty Market was valued at approximately $4.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $5.68 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.19% from 2026 to 2032. Another estimate places the U.S. home warranty market size at $4.6 billion in 2026. Frontdoor itself recognizes this as a $4 billion opportunity in the U.S. with low penetration, where it holds a dominant 46% market share.
ProConnect On-Demand Home Services
The broader U.S. home services industry, which includes on-demand services like Frontdoor's ProConnect, represents an estimated annual revenue of over $500 billion. Frontdoor has stated its aim to transform this market with its on-demand offerings. More specifically, the U.S. online on-demand home services market is projected to grow to $1.7 billion by 2028. Globally, the online on-demand home services market was valued at $5.15 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to $19.65 billion by 2033. North America leads this global market, accounting for approximately 45% of the total market share.
Streem (Augmented Reality, Computer Vision, and Machine Learning Platform)
Frontdoor's Streem platform leverages augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to assist home service professionals. The global augmented reality market is anticipated to reach $591.7 billion by 2033, with an estimated size of $29.6 billion in 2024. In North America, the demand for augmented reality reached $7.6 billion in 2023. A significant application for augmented reality, remote assistance and maintenance, which aligns with Streem's function, represented 29.09% of revenues in the augmented reality market in 2025. The global computer vision market size was valued at $21.7 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to $35.4 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Growth in Member Count: After stabilizing its member base in 2025, Frontdoor anticipates a resumption of member growth in 2026, marking the first increase since 2020. This growth is projected to be fueled by approximately 5% first-year channel growth and enhanced momentum in both the direct-to-consumer (DTC) and real estate channels.
- Expansion of Non-Warranty Services: The company is strategically expanding its non-warranty revenue streams. The new HVAC program demonstrated significant success, growing 48% to $128 million in 2025 and is forecasted to reach approximately $165 million in 2026. Additionally, Frontdoor has broadened its partnership with Moen and initiated an appliance upgrade pilot program, contributing to a 66% rise in non-warranty and other revenue in 2025, with projections of $220 million to $240 million for 2026.
- Strategic Price Increases: Frontdoor has realized revenue growth through a combination of increased volume and strategic price adjustments. Management anticipates that ongoing price increases of 2-3% will be a foundational element supporting its revenue guidance for 2026.
- Synergies from the 2-10 Acquisition: The integration of the 2-10 acquisition is progressing ahead of schedule, with over $20 million in cost synergies realized in 2025, surpassing the initial $10 million target. Frontdoor plans to migrate the 2-10 platform in 2026 to unlock further revenue synergies and strengthen its relationships with builders and real estate partners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Frontdoor authorized a new three-year share repurchase program of up to $400 million in September 2021, with the program expected to run through September 2024.
- The company repurchased $160 million of shares in 2024, acquiring approximately 4 million shares, and an additional $280 million in 2025, which reduced shares outstanding by 7%.
- Since 2021, Frontdoor has cumulatively repurchased approximately 17 million shares totaling $720 million, leading to a net reduction of about 17% in shares outstanding. Furthermore, nearly half of a separate $650 million authorization, initiated in late 2024, has been completed, with the remaining $329 million anticipated to be utilized by early 2027.
Outbound Investments
- Frontdoor acquired 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty (2-10 HBW) in an all-cash transaction valued at $585 million, with the agreement entered into in June 2024 and the acquisition completed in December 2024.
- The acquisition was partially funded through a new $1.47 billion credit facility.
- The acquisition of 2-10 HBW diversifies Frontdoor's business into new home structural warranties, adding members, revenue, and EBITDA, and generated over $20 million in cost synergies during 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $39 million in 2024 and $26 million in 2025, primarily directed towards recurring capital needs and technology projects.
- Frontdoor forecasts its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $30 million to $35 million.
- The company operates with a "capital-light business model" but consistently invests in capability-expanding technology, focusing on its technology-enabled platform to enhance efficiency and service quality.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is 12.7% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 03/19/2026 | |
| Frontdoor Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| Is 21.8% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/27/2025 | |
| Is 28.8% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/07/2025 | |
| Is 20.4% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/06/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Frontdoor Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Frontdoor vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Frontdoor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Does Frontdoor Stock Qualify as a Tier-1 Capital Compounder? | 05/04/2026 | |
| Time To Buy The Dip In Frontdoor Stock? | 03/19/2026 | |
| Frontdoor Stock To $70? | 11/27/2025 | |
| Frontdoor Stock To $65? | 11/07/2025 | |
| Why Frontdoor’s 16% Selloff May Be More Than a Blip | 11/06/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,048 |
| Op Inc LTM | 234 |
| FCF LTM | 609 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 439 |
| CFO LTM | 708 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 556 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 38.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 106.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.6 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 11.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $76.75 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $70.66 | $62.07 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.6% | 23.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.6% | 42.9% |
| Downside Capture | 8.26 | 58.97 |
| Upside Capture | 67.26 | 75.69 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.6% | 23.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Up Beta | -1.69 | -0.24 | 0.14 | 1.04 | 1.28 | 0.87 |
| Down Beta | -0.77 | -0.59 | -0.40 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 51% | 126% | 62% | 85% | 62% | 92% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 27 | 35 | 68 | 136 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 152% | 17% | 50% | 59% | 66% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 16 | 28 | 58 | 116 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 32.2% | 42.9% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.2% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.2% | 12.9% | 1.47 | 23.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.3% | 19.8% | 1.14 | -20.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.6% | 13.8% | 0.81 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 43.0% | -1.23 | 5.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 9.2% | 38.8% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.1% | 24.1% | 0.21 | 38.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 36.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.5% | 0.76 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 0.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 35.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.0% | 53.0% | 0.38 | 14.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 6.2% | 40.5% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 37.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 36.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 18.0% | 0.31 | 6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 9.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 2.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.0% | -4.2% | 6.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| 11/4/2024 | 6.9% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 12.8% | 11.1% | 20.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | 10.6% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.4% | -9.0% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 2.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.0% | -4.2% | 6.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| 11/4/2024 | 6.9% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 12.8% | 11.1% | 20.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | 10.6% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | -5.8% | -8.7% | -2.2% |
| 11/1/2023 | 15.1% | 23.0% | 18.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | 5.7% | 1.9% | -5.2% |
| 5/4/2023 | 12.6% | 15.6% | 19.5% |
| 3/1/2023 | 5.3% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -4.4% | -2.3% | -12.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -10.3% | -10.5% | -19.8% |
| 2/24/2022 | -8.4% | -10.3% | -13.6% |
| 10/28/2021 | -10.9% | -9.3% | -16.0% |
| 8/4/2021 | -11.6% | -10.3% | -11.8% |
| 5/6/2021 | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| 2/18/2021 | -0.8% | -7.1% | 0.3% |
| 11/4/2020 | 2.7% | 4.1% | 7.8% |
| 8/5/2020 | 11.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.4% | -9.0% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/9/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 635.00 Mil | 642.50 Mil | 650.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 198.00 Mil | 203.00 Mil | 208.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 2.15 Bil | 2.17 Bil | 2.19 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.17 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 565.00 Mil | 572.50 Mil | 580.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 572.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | 54.0% | 54.5% | 55.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 54.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 SG&A | 660.00 Mil | 670.00 Mil | 680.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 32.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 440.00 Mil | 442.50 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 5.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 420.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 95.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 105.00 Mil | 90.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.15 Bil | 2.17 Bil | 2.19 Bil | 4.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.08 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 565.00 Mil | 572.50 Mil | 580.00 Mil | 4.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 547.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | 54.0% | 54.5% | 55.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 55.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 8.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 415.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 425.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 50.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 55.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Revenue | 2.08 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.06 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 545.00 Mil | 547.50 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 540.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Profit Margin | 55.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 55.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 SG&A | 670.00 Mil | 672.50 Mil | 675.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 30.00 Mil | Lowered | |||||
| 2025 Annual Effective Tax Rate | 25.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 67.60 | 15,000 | 1,014,024 | 1,338,917 | Form |
| 2 | Collins, Kathryn M | SVP & Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 59.02 | 9,429 | 556,484 | 577,377 | Form |
| 3 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP, CLO & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 56.15 | 129,673 | 7,280,568 | 1,945,220 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 67.60 | 15,000 | 1,014,024 | 1,338,917 | Form |
| 2 | Collins, Kathryn M | SVP & Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 59.02 | 9,429 | 556,484 | 577,377 | Form |
| 3 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP, CLO & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 56.15 | 129,673 | 7,280,568 | 1,945,220 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
FTDR Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on a pivotal turnaround in customer growth, with management forecasting the first full year of organic member growth since 2020. This is supported by strong pricing power and excellent cash generation funding significant share repurchases. The primary watch-item is the market impact of a new, large competitor.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Services / Subscription(Number of Members x Average Realized Price) + Non-Warranty Revenue Pricing power through dynamic pricing on a large, sticky renewal base, combined with disciplined management of claims costs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful turnaround is underway, driven by effective marketing and a stabilizing real estate channel.
- Management forecasts total member count will grow approximately 1% in 2026.
- First-year member acquisition channels accelerated to 3% growth in Q1 2026.
- Customer retention remains high at 79.3% as of March 31, 2026.
- The company's real estate attach rate improved for 8 consecutive months.
PRIMARY RISK
A large, well-capitalized competitor, Assurant, has launched a home warranty product, directly challenging Frontdoor's leadership position and potentially pressuring pricing and growth in key channels.
- The home warranty category is described as 'highly competitive'.
- Management confirmed competitor Assurant has launched a home warranty product.
- A June analyst report highlighted competitive threats from Assurant as a reason for caution.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Member Count Growth | Forecasting ~1% growth for full-year 2026 - Turning around | The trajectory has inflected positively. After stabilizing in 2025 from prior declines, management now forecasts the first full year of organic member count growth since 2020. This turnaround is led by accelerating growth in the first-year DTC and real estate acquisition channels. |
| Non-Warranty Revenue Growth | 23% year-over-year growth to $41 million in Q1 2026 - Decelerating | While the growth rate is moderating from very high levels, it remains robust at 23% year-over-year. This channel, primarily driven by the HVAC upgrade program, represents a successful strategy of cross-selling to the existing member base with low customer acquisition costs. |
| Number of Home Warranties | 2.10 million (As of March 31, 2026) | Market rewards Management has guided for approximately 1% total member count growth for 2026, which they describe as a 'major milestone' marking the first year of organic growth since 2020.. This metric represents the size of the company's recurring revenue customer base. Growth in this KPI is a primary strategic priority and signals the health of the first-year acquisition channels and the renewal book. |
| Customer Retention Rate | 79.3% (As of March 31, 2026) | Calculated on a rolling 12-month basis, this KPI measures the company's ability to retain its customer base, which is critical given that renewals constituted 76% of revenue in 2025. High retention indicates customer satisfaction and revenue stability. |
| First-Year Member Growth (DTC & Real Estate) | 3% (Q1 2026) | This measures the growth in new customer acquisition, which is the leading indicator for the future health of the larger, highly profitable renewal channel. Management noted this acceleration is a key driver of their confidence in total member growth. |
Member Growth Inflection vs. New Competitive Threat
BULL VIEW
The 3% growth in first-year channels is a durable leading indicator of a successful turnaround that will drive high-margin recurring revenue, justifying a higher valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can the company's 3% first-year member growth offset the threat from Assurant, a risk the market is pricing with high uncertainty?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Current evidence favors the bull case. The company's real estate attach rate has improved for 8 straight months, suggesting the competitive threat has not yet materialized.
BEAR VIEW
The member growth is a temporary result of promotions that will be eroded as new competitor Assurant uses its scale to take share in the critical real estate channel.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/5/2026 | Peer FNF Earnings Report Watch: Peer Fidelity National Financial (FNF) is scheduled to report earnings. |
August 6, 2026 | Decelerating Quarterly Revenue Growth Watch: Q2 revenue growth rate in the 8/6 earnings report to see if the deceleration trend continues. |
August 6, 2026 | Margin Pressure from Mix Shift Watch: Reported Q2 gross margin and management's commentary on the profitability of the fast-growing non-warranty segment. |
August 6, 2026 | Elevated Market-Priced Uncertainty Watch: The stock's price reaction to the upcoming Q2 earnings report, which could resolve the priced-in uncertainty. |
August 6, 2026 | Company Q2 Earnings Release Watch: The company will release its second quarter 2026 financial results and hold a conference call. |
10/21/2026 | Peer ORI Earnings Report Watch: Peer Old Republic International (ORI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | New Competitor Market Impact Watch: Commentary on market share, attach rates, and pricing in the real estate channel during the next earnings call. |
around Q4 | Appliance Program National Launch Watch: The company plans to launch its appliance upgrade program nationwide. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-06-30 | Analyst Note on Competition Details: A press report highlighted increasing competitive threats, specifically from Assurant, and noted a rating downgrade for the stock. | +3.2% $76.03 -> $78.44 |
2026-06-29 | New Director Appointed Details: The company expanded its board to nine members and elected Hilla Sferruzza as a director, who will also serve on the Audit Committee. | +3.8% $74.73 -> $77.59 |
2026-04-30 | Full-Year Guidance Affirmed Details: Following Q1 earnings, the company affirmed its full-year 2026 guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, gross profit margin, and capital expenditures. | +13.6% $60.59 -> $68.80 |
2026-04-30 | Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Details: Reported Q1 2026 revenue of $451 million, up 6%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.73, beating consensus estimates. | +13.6% $60.59 -> $68.80 |
2026-04-15 | Expanded Partnership with SkySlope Details: An expanded relationship with technology provider SkySlope was announced to simplify transactions for real estate agents in 43 states. | +1.5% $59.56 -> $60.46 |
2026-03-31 | New Marketing Campaign Launch Details: The company launched the third year of its “Warrantina” marketing campaign, which reportedly increased unaided awareness by 6% to 28%. | +4.9% $51.95 -> $54.52 |
2026-02-26 | Record Full-Year 2025 Results Details: The company announced record 2025 results, with revenue up 14% to nearly $2.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 25% to $553 million. A record $280 million in share buybacks was announced. | +21.8% $56.30 -> $68.57 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: FTDR trades at roughly 39% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market), around the 79th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ANGI - Angi
Marketplace Model ExposureAngi operates a different, higher gross margin business model likely focused on lead generation rather than service guarantees. This offers a different risk profile within the broader home services industry.
FNF - Fidelity National Financial
Diversified Financial ServicesFidelity National Financial is a much larger, more diversified company, providing exposure to title insurance and other real estate services, which may offer more stability than a pure-play warranty business.
A recurring revenue home services platform leveraging a nationwide contractor network to generate strong, capital-light cash flow.
Frontdoor is successfully executing a turnaround in its core metric, member count, which is now expected to grow for the first time in years. This is driven by aggressive and effective direct-to-consumer marketing and a stabilizing real estate channel. The company is layering on growth from non-warranty services and capitalizing on strong pricing power and operational efficiencies to deliver high margins and significant cash returns to shareholders.
Sustained growth in first-year member count, continued high renewal rates despite pricing actions, and margin expansion in line with or exceeding new long-term targets.
Evidence that new competition, such as Assurant, is successfully gaining share or forcing price concessions, a significant downturn in the real estate market that stalls first-year growth, or an unexpected spike in claims costs that erodes margins.
Quarter-to-quarter volatility in claims costs due to weather patterns, which management notes is a normal part of the business.
Repricing Catalyst
The inflection to positive year-over-year member count growth, which management now forecasts at approximately 1% for 2026, marking a significant operational milestone.
Single Segment
$2.1B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
Sells home warranties and new home builder warranties to homeowners and home builders across the United States under brands including American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW. It also markets non-warranty services, like HVAC upgrades and maintenance offerings, primarily to its existing warranty customer base.
Who Pays & How
Homeowners pay for annual contracts to protect against unexpected, expensive home repair costs and for the convenience of accessing a pre-vetted contractor network. Home builders pay for warranties to transfer long-term structural risk and provide administrative support for homeowner claims.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Specialized Consumer Services Resources |
| Consumer Reports |
| Better Business Bureau (BBB) |
| TrendWatching |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.