LKQ (LKQ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $30.135 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Distributors
LKQ (LKQ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $30.135Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 8.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | Key risksLKQ key risks include [1] waning demand for its core replacement parts, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
| Key risksLKQ key risks include [1] waning demand for its core replacement parts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LKQ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why LKQ stock moved during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today:
1. Missed Revenue Estimates and Lower Net Income in Q3 2025: LKQ reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $3.499 billion, falling short of analyst estimates which ranged from $3.52 billion to $3.54 billion. Additionally, net income from continuing operations decreased to $178 million, compared to $187 million in the third quarter of 2024.
2. Decline in North American Organic Revenue and Repairable Claims: During the third quarter of 2025, North American organic revenue on a per-day basis saw a decrease of 30 basis points, alongside a 6% decline in repairable claims, indicating softness in a crucial segment of the market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LKQ Return | -1% | 71% | -9% | -9% | -21% | -16% | -7% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 36% | -7% | 24% | 8% | 14% | 144% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LKQ Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 43% | 48% | 57% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LKQ Max Drawdown | -61% | -1% | -29% | -18% | -23% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -9% | -31% | -9% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WCC, POOL, PATK, GPC, ARMK. See LKQ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LKQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 804 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 781 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WCC, POOL, PATK, GPC, ARMK
In The Past
LKQ's stock fell -29.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -29.1% loss requires a 41.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LKQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | LKQ | LKQ | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.1% | -19.6% | -24.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | LKQ | LKQ | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.1% | -19.6% | -24.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LKQ
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 119.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 16,276 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,001 |
| FCF LTM | 322 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 602 |
| CFO LTM | 561 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 705 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 25.8 |
| P/CFO | 18.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.7% | 2.7% | -0.9% |
| 7/24/2025 | -17.8% | -22.0% | -20.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.3% | -1.2% | 1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | -12.4% | -6.7% | -5.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.9% | -8.1% | -1.7% |
| 7/27/2023 | -4.0% | -4.5% | -10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -6.7% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 12.1% | 20.9% |
| Max Negative | -17.8% | -22.0% | -48.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |