LKQ (LKQ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $29.39 | Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Distributors
LKQ (LKQ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $29.39Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LKQ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that contributed to the approximate -9.1% movement in LKQ's stock price during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025:
1. Disappointing Revenue Performance in Third Quarter 2025: LKQ Corporation reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $3.5 billion, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.52 billion and represented a decline from the $3.58 billion reported in the same period of 2024.
2. Negative Organic Revenue Trend and Revised 2025 Outlook: In the third quarter of 2025, parts and services organic revenues for LKQ decreased by 1.2% year-over-year. The company also revised its 2025 guidance, anticipating a decline in parts and services organic revenues of 2-3% for the full year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LKQ Return | -1% | 71% | -9% | -9% | -21% | -18% | -9% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 36% | -7% | 24% | 8% | 14% | 143% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LKQ Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 43% | 48% | 57% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LKQ Max Drawdown | -61% | -1% | -29% | -18% | -23% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -9% | -31% | -9% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WCC, POOL, PATK, GPC, ARMK. See LKQ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LKQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 804 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 781 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WCC, POOL, PATK, GPC, ARMK
In The Past
LKQ's stock fell -29.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -29.1% loss requires a 41.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can LKQ Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Big Decline for LKQ, but Do VZ's Margins and Growth Give It the Edge? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| LKQ's One-Month Drop Offers a Chance to Reevaluate PHM | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than LKQ Stock: Pay Less Than LKQ To Get More From UAL, IBKR | |||
| Better Bet Than LKQ Stock: Pay Less Than LKQ To Get More From TNL, GRBK | |||
| LKQ Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| LKQ Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -17.1% in 2024 and -9.9% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| LKQ (LKQ) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| LKQ (LKQ) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| LKQ Down 15% In A Week. What Happened During Past Market Dips? | July 29th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: WST, URI, LH | Losers: LKQ, DOW, MOH | July 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LKQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | LKQ | LKQ | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.1% | -21.6% | -23.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | LKQ | LKQ | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.1% | -21.6% | -23.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LKQ
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |