Tearsheet

Steven Madden (SHOO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.11 | Market Cap: $3.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear

Steven Madden (SHOO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.11
Market Cap: $3.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Footwear

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 6.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.9%
 
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Creator Economy Monetization.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 6.9%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Creator Economy Monetization.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.9%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SHOO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Steven Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO) experienced a significant upward movement in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Optimistic Fourth Quarter 2025 Guidance: Following its Third Quarter 2025 earnings report on November 5, 2025, Steven Madden provided robust guidance for the fourth quarter. The company projected a revenue increase of 27% to 30% compared to the same period in 2024, alongside an expected diluted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.41 to $0.46, which surpassed analyst consensus estimates. This positive outlook contributed to investor confidence and an initial surge in the stock price by 6.23% in pre-market trading.

2. Favorable Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Revisions: Throughout late 2025, Steven Madden received numerous positive revisions from financial analysts. For example, on December 4, 2025, BTIG maintained a "Buy" rating and increased its price target for SHOO from $43 to $50. Similarly, Piper Sandler raised its price target from $40 to $50, and UBS increased its target from $26 to $43 on November 6, 2025. This trend of increasing price targets and favorable ratings indicated a positive sentiment from Wall Street regarding the company's future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SHOO Return-17%33%-30%35%3%0%8%
Peers Return10%47%-3%29%21%-27%81%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SHOO Win Rate42%67%33%67%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%58%37%48%45%25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SHOO Max Drawdown-59%-5%-42%-4%-8%-54% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-2%-27%-11%-9%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DECK, CROX, CAL, WEYS, FWDI. See SHOO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSHOOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven146.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven447 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven192 days1480 days

Compare to DECK, CROX, CAL, WEYS, FWDI


In The Past

Steven Madden's stock fell -48.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -48.0% loss requires a 92.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Steven Madden (SHOO)

Better Bets than Steven Madden (SHOO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SHOO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
SHOO_2282025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02282025SHOOSteven MaddenDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.0%30.0%-40.0%
SHOO_7312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy07312022SHOOSteven MaddenDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.2%8.1%-15.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
SHOO_2282025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02282025SHOOSteven MaddenDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.0%30.0%-40.0%
SHOO_7312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy07312022SHOOSteven MaddenDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.2%8.1%-15.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Steven Madden

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SHOODECKCROXCALWEYSFWDIMedian
NameSteven M.Deckers .Crocs Caleres Weyco Forward . 
Mkt Price44.1194.9789.3513.3531.798.5137.95
Mkt Cap3.114.25.00.40.3-3.1
Rev LTM2,3205,1254,1392,653281272,486
Op Inc LTM1361,2121,00310033-5118
FCF LTM118880769-3333-275
FCF 3Y Avg2108047998944-0149
CFO LTM1529688373134-293
CFO 3Y Avg23489388714847-0191

Growth & Margins

SHOODECKCROXCALWEYSFWDIMedian
NameSteven M.Deckers .Crocs Caleres Weyco Forward . 
Rev Chg LTM8.0%15.5%2.0%-5.3%-6.4%5.6%3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.3%16.3%14.5%-3.3%-3.6%-13.5%-0.5%
Rev Chg Q6.8%16.9%3.4%-3.6%-8.9%-50.5%-0.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%2.8%0.9%-0.9%-2.0%-8.6%-0.0%
Op Mgn LTM5.8%23.6%24.2%3.8%11.6%-19.0%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.4%21.3%25.5%5.6%12.6%-6.9%11.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4.1%-0.0%-0.6%-1.0%-0.7%-8.7%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM6.6%18.9%20.2%1.2%12.2%-6.8%9.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.3%20.2%22.0%5.3%15.2%-0.7%13.2%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%17.2%18.6%-1.3%11.6%-6.9%8.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%18.1%19.8%3.1%14.5%-0.9%12.3%

Valuation

SHOODECKCROXCALWEYSFWDIMedian
NameSteven M.Deckers .Crocs Caleres Weyco Forward . 
Mkt Cap3.114.25.00.40.3-3.1
P/S0.73.01.10.11.1-1.1
P/EBIT12.511.817.24.78.9-11.8
P/E18.715.319.76.612.1-15.3
P/CFO11.215.65.613.09.1-11.2
Total Yield8.9%6.5%5.1%16.3%17.5%-8.9%
Dividend Yield3.6%0.0%0.0%1.2%9.3%-1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.8%4.7%13.4%7.8%15.6%-8.8%
D/E0.30.00.42.40.0-0.3
Net D/E0.3-0.10.32.0-0.2-0.3

Returns

SHOODECKCROXCALWEYSFWDIMedian
NameSteven M.Deckers .Crocs Caleres Weyco Forward . 
1M Rtn34.5%17.1%10.1%21.3%19.0%-19.0%
3M Rtn52.5%-23.2%3.0%-10.3%13.2%-3.0%
6M Rtn81.5%-10.2%-9.8%1.1%8.3%-1.1%
12M Rtn-1.5%-53.2%-19.7%-58.2%-2.1%--19.7%
3Y Rtn35.3%46.4%-14.1%-37.9%50.0%-35.3%
1M Excs Rtn34.5%17.1%10.1%21.3%19.0%-19.0%
3M Excs Rtn42.1%-28.7%-5.0%-11.2%2.7%--5.0%
6M Excs Rtn66.8%-25.0%-24.5%-13.7%-6.5%--13.7%
12M Excs Rtn-14.1%-65.1%-28.9%-69.9%-15.8%--28.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-30.7%-24.2%-77.6%-115.2%-18.7%--30.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Wholesale Footwear1,0481,1951,0227141,112
Direct-to- Consumer506522488239321
Wholesale Accessories/Apparel417395344236335
Licensing101010912
First Cost01247
Corporate costs  0  
Total1,9822,1221,8661,2021,787


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Wholesale Footwear20526521792163
Wholesale Accessories/Apparel613027-222
Direct-to- Consumer306875-59-9
Licensing88868
First Cost0123-8
Corporate costs-92-89-85-71 
Total213282244-32177


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,651,367
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.5%
Average Daily Volume1,675,145
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.57
Basic Shares Quantity70,870,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023304202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021