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Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.07 | Market Cap: $683.9 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.07
Market Cap: $683.9 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, EV Charging Infrastructure (Utility Role), Show more.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, EV Charging Infrastructure (Utility Role), Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LINC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate 17.4% stock movement for Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) from late August 2025 to early December 2025, with a particular focus on the significant increase observed in November 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Lincoln Educational Services reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 10, 2025. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.12. Additionally, revenue reached $141.4 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $129.85 million.

2. Upward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance. Following its strong Q3 performance, Lincoln Educational Services raised its full-year 2025 guidance across key financial metrics, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, net income, and student starts. This updated optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year contributed to positive investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LINC Return141%15%-22%73%58%37%704%
Peers Return19%-2%-14%-4%0%-10%-13%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LINC Win Rate58%58%42%75%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate22%8%15%20%17%22% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LINC Max Drawdown-34%-11%-37%-12%-11%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-5%-21%-15%-15%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, PXED.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLINCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven297 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven235 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven822 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-31.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days1480 days

Compare to LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, PXED


In The Past

Lincoln Educational Services's stock fell -42.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/28/2021. A -42.0% loss requires a 72.3% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)

Better Bets than Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LINC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lincoln Educational Services

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LINCLOPEFCHLGVMHPXEDMedian
NameLincoln .Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Phoenix . 
Mkt Price22.08153.720.341.4717.2734.2319.67
Mkt Cap0.74.3----2.5
Rev LTM4681,091--1,948-1,091
Op Inc LTM21297--224-224
FCF LTM-63242----90
FCF 3Y Avg-31223----96
CFO LTM28279----153
CFO 3Y Avg19262----141

Growth & Margins

LINCLOPEFCHLGVMHPXEDMedian
NameLincoln .Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Phoenix . 
Rev Chg LTM14.5%7.0%--13.3%-13.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.1%6.5%----8.8%
Rev Chg Q13.2%9.6%--27.8%-13.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.0%2.1%--6.4%-3.0%
Op Mgn LTM4.5%27.2%--11.5%-11.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%26.6%--6.2%-6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.1%--4.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM5.9%25.6%----15.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%25.8%----15.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-13.4%22.2%----4.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.8%21.8%----7.5%

Valuation

LINCLOPEFCHLGVMHPXEDMedian
NameLincoln .Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Phoenix . 
Mkt Cap0.74.3----2.5
P/S1.55.6----3.6
P/EBIT29.919.2----24.5
P/E50.028.8----39.4
P/CFO25.721.8----23.8
Total Yield2.0%3.5%----2.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.2%5.1%-----0.1%
D/E0.30.0----0.1
Net D/E0.2-0.0----0.1

Returns

LINCLOPEFCHLGVMHPXEDMedian
NameLincoln .Grand Ca.Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Phoenix . 
1M Rtn19.1%-16.1%-25.0%-5.2%58.4%-4.9%-5.0%
3M Rtn12.7%-25.2%--4.5%15.8%-4.1%
6M Rtn-3.4%-21.1%--31.3%---21.1%
12M Rtn36.3%-7.6%--0.7%---0.7%
3Y Rtn237.1%40.6%--85.8%--40.6%
1M Excs Rtn19.1%-16.1%-25.0%-5.1%58.5%-4.9%-5.0%
3M Excs Rtn8.1%-30.4%-97.3%-6.0%11.2%--6.0%
6M Excs Rtn-18.1%-35.8%--46.0%---35.8%
12M Excs Rtn20.8%-20.2%--14.8%---14.8%
3Y Excs Rtn149.5%-33.7%--158.0%---33.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Campus Operations367331   
Transitional11177  
Corporate00   
Healthcare and Other Professions  888680
Transportation and Skilled Trades  241207194
Total378348335293273


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Campus Operations4848   
Transitional-210  
Corporate-12-33-15-31-24
Healthcare and Other Professions  12118
Transportation and Skilled Trades  523422
Total331649155


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,225,995
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.6%
Average Daily Volume380,513
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.22
Basic Shares Quantity30,990,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021303202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021