Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.07 | Market Cap: $683.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.07Market Cap: $683.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, EV Charging Infrastructure (Utility Role), Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, EV Charging Infrastructure (Utility Role), Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LINC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate 17.4% stock movement for Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) from late August 2025 to early December 2025, with a particular focus on the significant increase observed in November 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Lincoln Educational Services reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 10, 2025. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.12. Additionally, revenue reached $141.4 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $129.85 million.
2. Upward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance. Following its strong Q3 performance, Lincoln Educational Services raised its full-year 2025 guidance across key financial metrics, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, net income, and student starts. This updated optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year contributed to positive investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LINC Return | 141% | 15% | -22% | 73% | 58% | 37% | 704% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -2% | -14% | -4% | 0% | -10% | -13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LINC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 8% | 15% | 20% | 17% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LINC Max Drawdown | -34% | -11% | -37% | -12% | -11% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -5% | -21% | -15% | -15% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, PXED.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LINC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 297 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 822 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, PXED
In The Past
Lincoln Educational Services's stock fell -42.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/28/2021. A -42.0% loss requires a 72.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LINC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lincoln Educational Services
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,091 |
| Op Inc LTM | 224 |
| FCF LTM | 90 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 96 |
| CFO LTM | 153 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 141 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 24.5 |
| P/E | 39.4 |
| P/CFO | 23.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campus Operations | 367 | 331 | |||
| Transitional | 11 | 17 | 7 | ||
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | |||
| Healthcare and Other Professions | 88 | 86 | 80 | ||
| Transportation and Skilled Trades | 241 | 207 | 194 | ||
| Total | 378 | 348 | 335 | 293 | 273 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campus Operations | 48 | 48 | |||
| Transitional | -2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| Corporate | -12 | -33 | -15 | -31 | -24 |
| Healthcare and Other Professions | 12 | 11 | 8 | ||
| Transportation and Skilled Trades | 52 | 34 | 22 | ||
| Total | 33 | 16 | 49 | 15 | 5 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11082021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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