Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.17 | Market Cap: $52.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.17Market Cap: $52.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
F Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Ford Motor's (F) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Ford's stock experienced volatility due to a significant supply chain disruption and subsequent revised guidance, followed by investor optimism. A fire at the Novelis aluminum plant on September 16, 2025, led to concerns about F-Series truck production, causing Ford's stock to plummet by up to 7% on October 7, 2025. This incident prompted Ford to lower its 2025 profit forecast, cutting vehicle production by up to 100,000 units. However, investors remained optimistic, sending shares higher as the company outlined plans to recover losses in 2026.
2. Strong third-quarter 2025 financial results boosted investor confidence. Ford reported robust earnings for Q3 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with earnings of 45 cents per share against an anticipated 36 cents, and revenues exceeding $47 billion, which was $4 billion more than Wall Street projected.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| F Return | -4% | 137% | -42% | 16% | -13% | 41% | 87% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 10% | -3% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| F Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 33% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| F Max Drawdown | -56% | -3% | -46% | -9% | -17% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -15% | -12% | -5% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, PCAR, HOG, EMPD, SBLX. See F Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | F | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 809 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 665.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GM, PCAR, HOG, EMPD, SBLX
In The Past
Ford Motor's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Ford Motor Earnings Notes | |||
| How Does Ford Motor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Ford Motor Stock | |||
| What Can Trigger Ford Motor Stock's Slide? | |||
| What Is Happening With Ford Motor Stock? | |||
| Time To Buy Ford Motor Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| How Low Can Ford Motor Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Ford Motor vs UnitedHealth: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Ford Motor vs General Motors: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than F Stock: Pay Less Than Ford Motor To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Does Ford Motor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | November 26th, 2025 | ||
| What Could Light a Fire Under Ford Motor Stock | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Ford Motor Stock | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| Ford Motor Stock To $9? | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: QCOM, KDP, SMCI | Losers: ALB, NEM, F | October 28th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to F. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ford Motor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Blue | 140,627 | 130,782 | |||
| Ford Pro | 58,058 | 48,939 | |||
| Ford Credit | 10,290 | 8,978 | 10,073 | 11,203 | 12,260 |
| Ford Model e | 6,526 | 5,374 | |||
| Ford Next | 3 | 99 | 118 | 47 | 41 |
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | -39,313 | -36,141 | |||
| Corporate Other | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | 0 | |||
| Special Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Adjustments | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Automotive | 126,150 | 115,894 | 143,599 | ||
| Total | 176,191 | 158,057 | 136,341 | 127,144 | 155,900 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Credit | 148,521 | 137,954 | 134,428 | 157,637 | 160,697 |
| Ford Blue | 58,990 | 56,023 | |||
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | 49,002 | -1,527 | |||
| Ford Model e | 13,648 | 5,285 | |||
| Ford Pro | 2,942 | 2,177 | |||
| Ford Next | 207 | 392 | 3,325 | 3,459 | 1,034 |
| Corporate Other | 55,580 | 51,730 | 45,410 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | ||||
| Special Items | 0 | ||||
| Adjustments | -1,417 | -1,986 | -4,542 | ||
| Automotive | 68,969 | 62,741 | 101,348 | ||
| Total | 273,310 | 255,884 | 257,035 | 267,261 | 258,537 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
