Garrett Motion (GTX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.775 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Garrett Motion (GTX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.775Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 14% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Key risksGTX key risks include [1] the long-term threat to its core turbocharger business from the automotive industry's shift to electric vehicles and [2] a significant debt load coupled with substantial cash payment obligations to Honeywell. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.8%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% |
| Key risksGTX key risks include [1] the long-term threat to its core turbocharger business from the automotive industry's shift to electric vehicles and [2] a significant debt load coupled with substantial cash payment obligations to Honeywell. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For Garrett Motion (GTX), several key points contributed to positive movement in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Garrett Motion reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with net income rising to $77 million from $52 million in the prior year, and net sales growing to $902 million, exceeding analysts' average expectations of $866.9 million. This strong performance led to a significant pre-market stock increase of 18.31% on October 23, 2025. **2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance.** Following the impressive Q3 2025 performance, management increased its full-year 2025 guidance. The revised outlook projected net income between $265 million and $295 million, and adjusted free cash flow between $350 million and $420 million. Net sales were also estimated to be higher, ranging from $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion, signaling increased confidence in future financial performance. **3. Enhanced Shareholder Returns.** The company demonstrated a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders during this period. Garrett Motion declared an 8-cent per share cash dividend, a 33% increase, payable on December 15, 2025. Additionally, the company executed $84 million in share repurchases during the third quarter of 2025. **4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions.** Analysts reacted favorably to Garrett Motion's financial performance and outlook. Several analysts maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings for GTX, with the average 12-month price target reaching $18.80 as of December 2025, representing a forecasted upside. Price targets were notably increased in September and October 2025. **5. Growth in New Technologies and Market Wins.** Garrett Motion's revenue growth in Q3 2025 was driven by new product launches and market share gains across key regions, including its gasoline operations. The company continued to invest in and showed increasing momentum with its differentiated zero-emission technologies, securing critical wins for large turbochargers and entering into a partnership for e-powertrain systems.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTX Return | � | � | -5% | 27% | -7% | 91% | � |
| Peers Return | 37% | 9% | -19% | 15% | -25% | 15% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTX Win Rate | � | 57% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 35% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTX Max Drawdown | � | � | -31% | -10% | -24% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -9% | -41% | -14% | -37% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 423 days | 464 days |
Compare to PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA
In The Past
Garrett Motion's stock fell -35.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/26/2021. A -35.8% loss requires a 55.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Garrett Motion
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 3,816 |
| Op Inc LTM | 416 |
| FCF LTM | 369 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 326 |
| CFO LTM | 470 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 412 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | 7.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 19.3% | 36.5% | 25.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 3.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | 10.6% | 22.8% | 15.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 5.2% | 7.8% | -3.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -7.4% | -1.9% | 2.8% |
| 7/25/2024 | -11.6% | -3.9% | -11.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.3% | -4.7% | -9.8% |
| 2/15/2024 | 12.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 7.8% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -3.1% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 19.3% | 36.5% | 29.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -6.3% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |