eBay (EBAY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.17 | Market Cap: $37.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
eBay (EBAY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.17Market Cap: $37.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EBAY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock movement for eBay (EBAY) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, reflects a decrease of 9.2%. Several key factors contributed to this decline.
1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Guidance Following Q3 Earnings Beat: While eBay reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, beating analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share, its forward guidance for the fourth quarter was weaker than anticipated. Management's forecast for Q4 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.31 to $1.36 fell below analyst estimates of $1.39. This dampened investor enthusiasm despite the Q3 beat.
2. Impact of Changes in U.S. Trade Policy and Tariffs: The elimination of the de minimis exemption for imports under $800 in late August negatively impacted eBay's transaction volumes, particularly for cross-border sellers in Japan and Canada. This policy shift was expected to be a full-quarter headwind in Q4, reducing gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EBAY Return | 41% | 34% | -36% | 8% | 45% | 36% | 154% |
| Peers Return | 96% | 9% | -18% | 31% | 30% | -1% | 195% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EBAY Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 37% | 65% | 63% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EBAY Max Drawdown | -27% | 0% | -44% | -7% | -7% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -14% | -40% | -17% | -13% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, FICO, TGT, ETSY. See EBAY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EBAY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1026 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 527 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1137 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, FICO, TGT, ETSY
In The Past
eBay's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -54.3% loss requires a 118.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EBAY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | EBAY | eBay | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -6.0% | -9.6% |
| 06302022 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 9.6% | -11.2% |
| 10312018 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.7% | 22.8% | -10.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | EBAY | eBay | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.0% | -6.0% | -9.6% |
| 06302022 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 9.6% | -11.2% |
| 10312018 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.7% | 22.8% | -10.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for eBay
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
