Tearsheet

eBay (EBAY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.17 | Market Cap: $37.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

eBay (EBAY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.17
Market Cap: $37.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EBAY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock movement for eBay (EBAY) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, reflects a decrease of 9.2%. Several key factors contributed to this decline.

1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Guidance Following Q3 Earnings Beat: While eBay reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, beating analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share, its forward guidance for the fourth quarter was weaker than anticipated. Management's forecast for Q4 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.31 to $1.36 fell below analyst estimates of $1.39. This dampened investor enthusiasm despite the Q3 beat.

2. Impact of Changes in U.S. Trade Policy and Tariffs: The elimination of the de minimis exemption for imports under $800 in late August negatively impacted eBay's transaction volumes, particularly for cross-border sellers in Japan and Canada. This policy shift was expected to be a full-quarter headwind in Q4, reducing gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EBAY Return41%34%-36%8%45%36%154%
Peers Return96%9%-18%31%30%-1%195%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EBAY Win Rate50%58%33%50%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate65%55%37%65%63%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EBAY Max Drawdown-27%0%-44%-7%-7%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-14%-40%-17%-13%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, FICO, TGT, ETSY. See EBAY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEBAYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1026 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven32 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven527 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven295.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1137 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, FICO, TGT, ETSY


In The Past

eBay's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -54.3% loss requires a 118.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About eBay (EBAY)

Interactive Breakdown

eBay Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EBAY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
EBAY_10102025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10102025EBAYeBayQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-6.0%-6.0%-9.6%
EBAY_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%9.6%-11.2%
EBAY_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
30.7%22.8%-10.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
EBAY_10102025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10102025EBAYeBayQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-6.0%-6.0%-9.6%
EBAY_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%9.6%-11.2%
EBAY_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
30.7%22.8%-10.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for eBay

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EBAYAMZNWMTFICOTGTETSYMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart Fair Isa.Target Etsy  
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
FCF 3Y Avg-------
CFO LTM-------
CFO 3Y Avg-------

Growth & Margins

EBAYAMZNWMTFICOTGTETSYMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart Fair Isa.Target Etsy  
Rev Chg LTM-------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-------
Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-------
FCF/Rev LTM-------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-------

Valuation

EBAYAMZNWMTFICOTGTETSYMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart Fair Isa.Target Etsy  
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E-------
Net D/E-------

Returns

EBAYAMZNWMTFICOTGTETSYMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart Fair Isa.Target Etsy  
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn-------
6M Excs Rtn-------
12M Excs Rtn-------
3Y Excs Rtn-------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment10,112    
Marketplace 9,79510,4208,8948,636
Total10,1129,79510,4208,8948,636


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,202,849
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-15.0%
Average Daily Volume5,062,261
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.61
Basic Shares Quantity461,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021