eBay (EBAY)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $97.86 | Market Cap: $44.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
eBay (EBAY)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $97.86Market Cap: $44.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.0x Key risksEBAY key risks include [1] maintaining user trust by combating the fraud and counterfeit products inherent to its open marketplace model. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.0x |
| Key risksEBAY key risks include [1] maintaining user trust by combating the fraud and counterfeit products inherent to its open marketplace model. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Exceeding Expectations.
eBay reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 17-18, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.41, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $1.24 by 13.71% or $1.35 by $0.06. Concurrently, quarterly revenue reached $2.97 billion, exceeding the $2.87 billion consensus and representing a 15.0% year-over-year increase, which positively influenced market perception and stock performance. Following this strong report, eBay's shares gained 3.1% the day after the announcement and drifted 12.9% higher in the subsequent 53 days.
2. Increased Shareholder Returns Through Dividend Hike.
eBay demonstrated its financial health and commitment to shareholder value by raising its quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share, an increase from the previous $0.29 per share. This enhanced dividend, equating to an annualized $1.24, was payable on March 20, 2026, to stockholders of record as of March 6, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.8% change in EBAY stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.81 | 97.94 | 12.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,714 | 11,100 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.4% | 18.3% | -10.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.1 | 21.8 | 20.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 456 | 453 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 12.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 44.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.6% | 46.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.4% change in EBAY stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.33 | 97.94 | 8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,470 | 11,100 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.9% | 18.3% | -12.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.1 | 21.8 | 14.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 461 | 453 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 39.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 36.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.6% change in EBAY stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.79 | 97.94 | 46.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,283 | 11,100 | 7.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.2% | 18.3% | -4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.2 | 21.8 | 35.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 478 | 453 | 5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 46.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 30.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.9% | 28.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 133.3% change in EBAY stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 71.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.98 | 97.94 | 133.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,795 | 11,100 | 13.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 4.0 | 71.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 543 | 453 | 19.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 133.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 133.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 34.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 62.3% | 32.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EBAY Return | 34% | -36% | 8% | 45% | 43% | 19% | 125% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -33% | 29% | 18% | 6% | 14% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EBAY Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 37% | 58% | 55% | 48% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EBAY Max Drawdown | 0% | -44% | -7% | -7% | -3% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -46% | -17% | -15% | -18% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, MELI, ETSY, TGT. See EBAY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EBAY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,026 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 527 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,137 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, MELI, ETSY, TGT
In The Past
eBay's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -54.3% loss requires a 118.9% gain to breakeven.
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About eBay (EBAY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Airbnb for physical goods, connecting individual buyers and sellers globally.
- Amazon's marketplace, but specializing in used items, collectibles, and auctions.
- A global, structured Craigslist, complete with integrated payments and shipping.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Online Marketplace Platform: eBay provides a global digital platform, including its website and mobile apps, that connects buyers and sellers to list, discover, and purchase a wide variety of goods.
- Payment Facilitation Services: The company offers integrated services that enable users to securely process payments for transactions conducted on its marketplace platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
eBay (EBAY) operates a marketplace platform that connects buyers and sellers. Its primary customers, from whom it generates revenue, are the sellers who utilize its platform to list and sell items. Given the nature of a broad, open marketplace, eBay does not have a few specific "major customer companies" in the traditional B2B sense. Instead, its customer base is highly fragmented and consists of millions of sellers, ranging from individuals to large enterprises.
Therefore, eBay primarily serves a wide array of individuals and businesses as sellers. The categories of customers that eBay serves, based on their selling activity and scale, include:
- Individual/Casual Sellers: These are individuals who use eBay to sell personal items, collectibles, used goods, or items they no longer need, often on an irregular basis or as a hobby.
- Small to Medium-sized Business (SMB) Sellers: This category includes entrepreneurs, small businesses, and professional merchants who leverage eBay as a significant sales channel. They often operate dedicated eBay Stores, selling new or specialized products to a wider audience.
- Larger Merchant/Liquidator Sellers: These are larger enterprises, distributors, or liquidators who utilize eBay for specific sales strategies, such as inventory clearance, selling overstock items, or reaching niche markets, often in high volumes.
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- Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
- Adyen N.V. (ADYEN.AS)
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Here is the management team for eBay:Jamie Iannone, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jamie Iannone was appointed CEO of eBay in April 2020. He has over 20 years of experience in digital and omnichannel platforms. Prior to rejoining eBay, he served as COO of Walmart eCommerce and CEO of SamsClub.com, where he led digital transformation initiatives and operational oversight. He also held the position of Executive Vice President of Digital Products at Barnes & Noble, Inc. Iannone had an earlier tenure at eBay from 2001 to 2009, holding various leadership roles in areas such as global search and buyer experience. He holds a Bachelor of Science from Princeton University and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
Peggy Alford, Chief Financial Officer
Peggy Alford assumed the role of eBay's Chief Financial Officer effective May 12, 2025. She brings over 20 years of experience leading finance, operations, and global teams in the technology sector. Previously, Alford served as Executive Vice President, Global Sales of PayPal Holdings, Inc. from March 2020 to January 2024. She also held roles as Senior Vice President, Core Markets at PayPal and Chief Financial Officer and Head of Operations at the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. Earlier in her career, Alford held various finance and business leadership positions at both PayPal and eBay. She is a CPA and began her career in auditing and consulting. Alford currently serves on the board of directors of Meta Platforms, Inc.
Jordan Sweetnam, Chief Commercial Officer
Jordan Sweetnam leads eBay's newly combined Global Markets and Product organization as Chief Commercial Officer, a role he assumed as part of executive leadership changes announced in April 2025.
Mazen Rawashdeh, Chief Technology Officer
Mazen Rawashdeh leads eBay's unified engineering organization as Chief Technology Officer, a position he took on following executive leadership changes announced in April 2025.
Stefanie Jay, Chief Business and Strategy Officer
Stefanie Jay was appointed as eBay's Chief Business and Strategy Officer in May 2021. In this role, she leads an organization that integrates Strategy, Business Operations, Analytics, and Communications.
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Here are the key risks to eBay's business:
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Intense Competition
eBay operates in a highly competitive e-commerce market, facing significant challenges from larger, diversified platforms like Amazon, which offers extensive product selections, faster shipping, and comprehensive fulfillment services, often overshadowing eBay's market share. The competitive landscape also includes specialized marketplaces (e.g., StockX, Poshmark for specific categories) and traditional retailers that have expanded their online presence. This intense competition is exacerbated by low barriers to entry in certain e-commerce segments and evolving consumer preferences, such as a decreasing brand loyalty where price, convenience, and quality often dictate purchasing decisions over platform allegiance.
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Regulatory and Compliance Challenges
eBay faces increasing regulatory scrutiny and compliance obligations, particularly in international markets. As a "very large online platform" under the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA), eBay has explicit statutory duties to implement risk-mitigation measures for illicit products. Recent enforcement actions by French authorities (DGCCRF) have cited eBay for the availability of prohibited items, setting a precedent for potential significant financial penalties, which could amount to up to 10% of global revenue for serious violations. Furthermore, the General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) in the EU and Northern Ireland, effective December 2024, places primary liability on marketplaces like eBay to ensure product compliance, introducing further financial and operational risks related to non-compliance.
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Fraud, Counterfeit Goods, and Cybersecurity Risks
Maintaining a secure and trustworthy environment is critical for eBay's marketplace model. The platform is continuously exposed to various forms of fraudulent activities, including the sale of stolen or counterfeit items, payment fraud, bid manipulation, phishing scams, and feedback extortion. These issues can significantly damage eBay's brand reputation, erode consumer and seller confidence, and increase operational costs and loss rates. Additionally, as a prominent online platform, eBay remains a target for cyberattacks and security breaches. Such incidents can lead to the compromise of sensitive user data, disruption of operations, and a substantial loss of user trust, as demonstrated by a past data breach in 2014 that resulted in a revenue decline.
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The following clear emerging threats have been identified for eBay:
- The rise of social commerce platforms: Platforms such as TikTok Shop and Instagram Shopping are increasingly integrating direct product sales into their social media experiences. These platforms leverage short-form video, live streaming, and influencer marketing to create an entertainment-driven and highly engaging shopping journey. This model presents a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and purchase items, challenging eBay's traditional search-and-browse, destination-site marketplace approach by capturing consumer attention and e-commerce spending through a different paradigm of product discovery and transaction.
- The proliferation of specialized, authenticated marketplaces: For high-value and niche categories (e.g., luxury goods, collectible sneakers, trading cards, vintage items), there is a growing trend towards highly specialized online marketplaces. Platforms like StockX, GOAT, and The RealReal offer enhanced authentication services, tailored user experiences, and specific escrow or verification processes. These specialized platforms address key trust and authenticity concerns for specific product types, potentially drawing away significant transaction volume and sellers from eBay's broader, generalist marketplace, particularly in categories where eBay has historically been strong.
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eBay Inc. operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers globally. The addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily its online marketplace, can be identified within the broader e-commerce market and specifically the online marketplace segment.
The global e-commerce market was estimated at USD 25.93 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 83.26 trillion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.9% from 2024 to 2030.
More specifically, the Top 100 global online marketplaces are projected to reach a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of USD 3.832 trillion by the end of 2024.
In the U.S. region, total e-commerce sales reached a record high of USD 1.1 trillion in 2023 and are forecast to rise to USD 1.7 trillion by 2028.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for eBay (EBAY) over the next 2-3 years:1. Growth in Strategic Focus Categories, Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C), and Recommerce Initiatives: eBay continues to prioritize and invest in specific categories, its consumer-to-consumer marketplace, and the recommerce segment (pre-owned and refurbished goods). These areas have been significant drivers of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth in 2025 and are expected to sustain this momentum into 2026.
2. Expansion of Advertising Revenue: The company has demonstrated effective monetization strategies, with its first-party advertising products showing strong growth. Advertising revenue has been a notable contributor to overall revenue, with significant year-over-year increases in late 2025.
3. Development of New Growth Vectors: Emerging areas such as "eBay Live," the interactive live-stream shopping experience, and the vehicles category are showing promising results and are expected to contribute to strategic priorities in 2026. eBay Live, for example, has experienced substantial year-over-year growth and expanded into new markets.
4. Integration of AI Technologies: eBay is leveraging AI to enhance the user experience and operational efficiency through innovations like AI-powered card scanning and agentic search. These technological advancements are aimed at improving customer satisfaction and engagement, which can indirectly drive revenue growth.
5. Strategic Acquisitions, such as Depop: The acquisition of Depop for approximately $1.2 billion is a strategic move to strengthen eBay's C2C offerings and expand its presence in the circular fashion segment, particularly targeting a younger demographic. This acquisition is anticipated to contribute to total FX-neutral GMV growth.
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Share Repurchases
- eBay completed a multi-year $8.20 billion buyback program in February 2026.
- In Q4 2025, eBay repurchased $625 million of its common stock.
- In December 2024, eBay's Board of Directors authorized an additional $3.0 billion under its stock repurchase program. In February 2026, an incremental $2.0 billion was authorized under the stock repurchase program.
Outbound Investments
- eBay completed the acquisition of Caramel, an end-to-end online automotive transaction solution provider, in February 2025, after signing a definitive agreement in January 2025.
- eBay announced the acquisition of Depop, a leading C2C fashion marketplace, for approximately $1.2 billion in cash, expected to close in Q2 2026.
- eBay Ventures, established in 2022, invests in disruptive companies revolutionizing the commerce landscape, with a focus on early-stage investments in areas such as marketplaces, e-commerce enablers, and the future of commerce, including AI.
Capital Expenditures
- eBay's capital expenditures averaged $454 million for the fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were $525 million.
- Expected capital expenditures are $549.9 million for 2026 and $558.8 million for 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| eBay Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 11% | 04/07/2026 | |
| eBay Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| eBay Stock Shares $40 Bil Success With Investors | 12/18/2025 | |
| ETSY Looks Smarter Buy Than eBay Stock | 10/29/2025 | |
| Can eBay Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Strong and Rising: EBAY May Have More Upside | 10/16/2025 | |
| EBAY: Quality Momentum Stock Trading Below Its Peak | 10/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| The One Metric That Complicates eBay’s Rally | 04/17/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/17/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/17/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: MU, EBAY, TPL | Losers: NEM, ALB, TSLA | 12/29/2025 | |
| eBay Stock Capital Return Hits $40 Bil | 12/18/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to EBAY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 10102025 | EBAY | eBay | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.5% | 3.5% | -10.0% |
| 06302022 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 9.6% | -11.2% |
| 10312018 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.7% | 22.8% | -10.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.8 |
| Rev LTM | 66,836 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,159 |
| FCF LTM | 5,265 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,598 |
| CFO LTM | 9,339 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,954 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.8 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.9 |
| P/E | 37.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $97.94 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 44.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/24/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $92.26 | $89.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.2% | 9.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.4% | 37.0% |
| Downside Capture | 0.94 | 0.40 |
| Upside Capture | 145.81 | 94.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.7% | 26.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.66 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.11 | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| Up Beta | 1.10 | -0.13 | 0.17 | 0.48 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| Down Beta | 0.69 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 1.18 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | 75% | 154% | 206% | 136% | 75% | 77% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 37 | 73 | 140 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 45% | 115% | 122% | 118% | 70% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 25 | 52 | 111 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EBAY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 49.3% | 37.2% | 1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 25.6% | 18.9% | 1.07 | 23.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -1.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 11.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 13.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EBAY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 10.9% | 32.9% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.8% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 47.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 48.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 40.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 19.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EBAY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 15.9% | 31.0% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 48.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 10.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -15.9% | -18.6% | -16.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.2% | -3.7% | -2.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | -8.2% | -2.5% | 1.5% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.1% | -0.9% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -3.3% | -2.7% | 6.7% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.3% | -1.3% | 5.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -3.7% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 18.3% | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -18.6% | -16.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 3.00 Bil | 3.02 Bil | 3.05 Bil | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.86 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 FX-Neutral Y/Y Growth | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 22.2% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 9.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume | 21.50 Bil | 21.70 Bil | 21.90 Bil | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 20.70 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted GAAP EPS | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.2 | 18.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.98 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 16.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.33 for Q4 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 2.83 Bil | 2.86 Bil | 2.89 Bil | 5.3% | Higher New | Actual: 2.71 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 FX-Neutral Y/Y Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 125.0% | 5.0% | Higher New | Actual: 4.0% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Gross Merchandise Volume | 20.50 Bil | 20.70 Bil | 20.90 Bil | 6.7% | Higher New | Actual: 19.40 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Diluted GAAP EPS | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.01 | -1.0% | Lower New | Actual: 0.99 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 1.31 for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | 10.97 Bil | 11.00 Bil | 11.03 Bil | ||||
| 2025 FX-Neutral Y/Y Growth | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2025 Gross Merchandise Volume | 78.90 Bil | 79.10 Bil | 79.30 Bil | ||||
| 2025 Diluted GAAP EPS | 4.09 | 4.12 | 4.14 | ||||
| 2025 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | 5.42 | 5.45 | 5.47 | ||||
EBAY Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock receives the lowest possible score due to a combination of fatal flaws. The risk/reward skew is profoundly negative, with a downside of over 40% versus negligible upside. This is driven by a structurally 'ERODING' moat, a stagnant user base, and a valuation that qualifies as a 'VALUE TRAP'. The current monetization success is a temporary harvest on a deteriorating asset.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'eBay fits the 'Transition' archetype as it's a former high-growth company now focused on improving profitability and FCF generation through higher-margin advertising revenue, rather than pursuing user growth. This is a classic pivot from growth to monetization efficiency.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that eBay is successfully transitioning its revenue model to rely on high-margin advertising and services, which are growing faster than its core marketplace volume. This mix-shift structurally improves the company's operating margin and profitability, even with a stagnant user base.
- First-Party Advertising revenue grew 17% YoY in Q4 2025, significantly outpacing core GMV growth.
- Overall revenue growth of 13% YoY outpaced GMV growth of 8% YoY in Q4 2025, confirming monetization and take-rate expansion.
- The advertising business has reached a scale of ~$2B annually, making it a material contributor to the top and bottom line.
- Management has explicitly guided for revenue to continue growing ahead of GMV in 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The critical risk is that the active buyer base has stopped growing, indicating market saturation and competitive irrelevance in mainstream e-commerce. Without user growth, the high-margin advertising business has a natural ceiling, as sellers will not perpetually increase ad spend to reach the same, non-growing audience. This turns the current monetization story into a finite harvesting strategy on a structurally disadvantaged platform.
- Active buyer growth was anemic at only +1% YoY in Q4 2025, stuck at 135 million.
- The company is structurally losing the mainstream e-commerce battle to Amazon, which has a superior logistics network, and is facing intense pressure from niche, vertical-specific marketplaces like StockX and Etsy.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Active Buyers YoY Growth | Must be > 0% | This is the primary leading indicator of the health of the marketplace network. Continued stagnation or decline signals a terminal problem for the long-term growth of the entire platform, including the ad business. |
| First-Party Advertising Revenue Growth YoY | Must remain > 15% | This is the core driver of the bull thesis and margin expansion story. A deceleration below this level would indicate the monetization strategy is hitting a ceiling. |
| GMV Growth vs. Revenue Growth Spread | Revenue Growth must remain > GMV Growth | This spread is the clearest mathematical indicator that the take-rate and advertising monetization strategy is working. If this spread compresses, the thesis is weakening. |
Monetization Engine vs. Stagnant Network
BULL VIEW
Advertising revenue (+17% YoY) and take-rate expansion are structurally improving margins, allowing revenue to outpace GMV growth, proving user growth is not currently necessary.
CORE TENSION
Can high-margin advertising revenue and take-rate expansion create value faster than the stagnant active buyer base destroys the network's long-term potential?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull thesis relies on the spread between Revenue (+13% YoY) and GMV (+8% YoY), but the bear case is validated by the stagnant Active Buyer count (+1% YoY)
BEAR VIEW
The anemic active buyer growth (+1% YoY) creates a ceiling for monetization. You cannot perpetually sell more ads to the same, non-growing audience.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
April 29, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Watch for Active Buyer count to be above 135M and GMV growth guidance for Q2 to exceed the 6-8% baseline established in late 2025. |
Post May 8, 2026 | UK CMA Decision on Depop Acquisition Watch: A binary announcement: whether the CMA will open a formal Phase 2 investigation into the acquisition. |
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Focus on the Revenue Growth vs. GMV Growth spread. It must remain positive to support the bull thesis on take-rate expansion. |
Next 90 Days | Ongoing US Consumer Health Data Watch: The US Personal Saving Rate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). A sustained level below 4.0% is the signal of distress. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 GMV growth of +8% YoY. Despite solid metrics, the stock pulled back as investors focused on the stagnant active buyer growth of just +1% YoY. | Fell notably by -2.89% $83.15 -> $80.75 |
Jan 1, 2026 | New Promoted Listings Policy Details: A controversial new policy for promoted listings began, charging sellers ad fees based on clicks rather than direct attribution, sparking seller frustration but having little immediate stock impact. | Muted (-0.05%) $86.80 -> $86.76 |
Feb 1, 2026 | Seller Fee Increases Implemented Details: eBay implemented previously announced increases to final value fees and fixed fees per order, a key part of its take-rate expansion strategy. The market reaction was positive. | Rose significantly by 2.81% $90.91 -> $93.46 |
Feb 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Company reported strong results, with GMV growth of +8% YoY (FX-Neutral) and revenue growth of +13% YoY. The stock reacted positively to the beat. | Rose significantly by 3.13% $81.90 -> $84.46 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades with Explosive volatility (3.25x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, Eroding Moat, Low Visibility, and 'Value Trap' valuation create a poor risk/reward, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
BKNG
SECTORUnlike EBAY's stagnant user base, BKNG benefits from secular tailwinds in travel. Its financial health is robust with strong margins, and AI disruption fears appear manageable.
DECK
SECTORSuperior brand momentum and growth. Unlike EBAY's decelerating platform, DECK's HOKA brand is driving explosive revenue growth, demonstrating true market share gains.
eBay is re-rating from a stagnant, broad-line marketplace into a more focused and profitable operator by concentrating on high-value enthusiast categories and scaling its high-margin advertising business.
Filter all news through the lens of accelerating Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and the growth of high-margin advertising revenue.
GMV growth accelerating above guidance; advertising revenue growing faster than overall revenue; active buyer count showing positive growth; successful integration of acquisitions like Depop to capture specific C2C markets.
Stagnant or declining active buyer count; deceleration in GMV growth; loss of market share in key 'focus categories' like collectibles or refurbished goods; significant seller pushback on fee increases or mandatory promoted listings.
Generic e-commerce macro trend news; individual high-value item listings; short-term fluctuations in non-focus categories; competitor moves in general merchandise.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating eBay based on the successful scaling of its advertising business, which reached ~$2B annually and grew 19% YoY in Q4 2025, significantly outpacing GMV growth. This high-margin revenue stream, coupled with a strategic focus on enthusiast categories, is shifting the narrative from user growth to monetization efficiency, with management guiding for continued revenue growth ahead of GMV in 2026.
Marketplace Transaction Fees
$9.3B TTM (83.7% of Total) · 71.5% MarginWhat It Is
Core marketplace services for third-party sellers, including listing, payment processing, and fulfillment integration.
Who Pays & How
Millions of third-party sellers pay to access eBay's 132 million active buyers (as of FY2023) and its established platform for new, used, and collectible goods. The primary value is access to a large, established buyer base and trust features like authentication for high-value items.
Competition
Promoted Listings & Ads
$1.8B TTM (16.3% of Total) · 80% MarginWhat It Is
Advertising products, primarily 'Promoted Listings', that allow sellers to pay for better visibility and placement in search results on the eBay platform.
Who Pays & How
Sellers pay to have their listings featured more prominently, increasing the probability of a sale in a competitive marketplace. It is a cost-of-doing-business to stand out among millions of listings.
Competition
External Quote Links
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