Dillard's (DDS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $685.99 | Market Cap: $10.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Dillard's (DDS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $685.99Market Cap: $10.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 6.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 6.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DDS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate 28.6% stock movement for Dillard's (DDS) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. Dillard's reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 13, 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $8.31, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.43 by $1.88. Quarterly revenue also rose 2.9% year-over-year to $1.49 billion, outperforming analyst estimates of $1.41 billion. 2. Significant Dividend Declarations. On November 20, 2025, Dillard's announced a substantial special dividend of $30.00 per share on its Class A and Class B Common Stock. Additionally, the company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share. These declarations typically indicate strong financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, which can positively impact stock price. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DDS Return | -13% | 306% | 39% | 32% | 13% | 58% | 1062% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 34% | -12% | 9% | -6% | 30% | 47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DDS Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 38% | 22% | 33% | 30% | 41% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DDS Max Drawdown | -69% | -12% | -19% | -15% | -18% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -3% | -23% | -16% | -15% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, M, KSS, BGO, SBDS. See DDS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DDS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 226.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 519 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1335.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 784 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TJX, M, KSS, BGO, SBDS
In The Past
Dillard's's stock fell -51.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/23/2021. A -51.8% loss requires a 107.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DDS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dillard's
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 15,886 |
| Op Inc LTM | 716 |
| FCF LTM | 603 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 543 |
| CFO LTM | 907 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,050 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 6.5 |
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | 18.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 86.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 52.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 71.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 41.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Operations | 6,480 | 6,702 | 6,375 | 4,160 | 6,012 |
| Construction | 321 | 214 | 118 | 141 | 191 |
| Service charges and other income | 122 | 125 | 131 | 132 | 140 |
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | -48 | -45 | |||
| Total | 6,874 | 6,996 | 6,624 | 4,433 | 6,343 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Operations | 3,378 | 3,274 | 3,200 | 3,039 | 3,387 |
| Construction | 71 | 55 | 46 | 54 | 43 |
| Total | 3,449 | 3,329 | 3,246 | 3,093 | 3,430 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3282025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3292024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3272023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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