Tearsheet

Upbound (UPBD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.88 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Computer & Electronics Retail

Upbound (UPBD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.88
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Computer & Electronics Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS).
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 10%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS).
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 129%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UPBD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the -24.2% movement in Upbound (UPBD) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Weaker-than-expected Fourth Quarter 2025 Guidance: Despite reporting third-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed Wall Street's expectations for both EPS and revenue, Upbound's stock declined due to its future guidance. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 guidance missed consensus expectations for EBITDA by 11% and EPS by 14%.

2. Concerns Over Acima Segment Performance and Credit Deterioration: Analysts raised concerns about the critical Acima segment, projecting potential increases in losses from 10% to as much as 16.5%. This sparked fears of a deterioration in subprime consumer credit, which could significantly impact Upbound's earnings and book value. The third-quarter report already indicated a decline in Acima's EBITDA margin due to a 50 basis point uptick in the lease charge-off rate and lower gross margins.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UPBD Return40%28%-50%58%-10%-35%-17%
Peers Return89%240%-39%18%28%-24%350%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPBD Win Rate75%58%42%58%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate64%50%33%50%50%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPBD Max Drawdown-58%-0%-62%-1%-19%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-3%-50%-19%-24%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BBY, GME, UPBD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUPBDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven272.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven157.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven135 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven108 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-61.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven780 days1480 days

Compare to BBY, GME, UPBD


In The Past

Upbound's stock fell -73.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/27/2021. A -73.1% loss requires a 272.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Upbound (UPBD)

Better Bets than Upbound (UPBD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UPBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
UPBD_10312022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312022UPBDUpboundDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
32.8%31.5%-5.5%
UPBD_2282022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02282022UPBDUpboundDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.2%0.9%-36.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
UPBD_10312022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312022UPBDUpboundDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
32.8%31.5%-5.5%
UPBD_2282022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02282022UPBDUpboundDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.2%0.9%-36.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Upbound

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPBDBBYGMEMedian
NameUpbound Best Buy GameStop  
Mkt Price18.9674.3823.2123.21
Mkt Cap1.115.710.410.4
Rev LTM4,57841,5983,8484,578
Op Inc LTM2451,724145245
FCF LTM1411,352482482
FCF 3Y Avg1511,518228228
CFO LTM2022,064497497
CFO 3Y Avg2082,295256256

Growth & Margins

UPBDBBYGMEMedian
NameUpbound Best Buy GameStop  
Rev Chg LTM7.5%-2.2%-15.5%-2.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.5%-5.4%-13.8%-5.4%
Rev Chg Q9.0%1.6%21.8%9.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%0.4%4.7%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM5.4%4.1%3.8%4.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.1%4.1%0.3%4.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.0%2.2%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.4%5.0%12.9%5.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%5.3%5.8%5.3%
FCF/Rev LTM3.1%3.3%12.5%3.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.6%3.5%5.2%3.6%

Valuation

UPBDBBYGMEMedian
NameUpbound Best Buy GameStop  
Mkt Cap1.115.710.410.4
P/S0.30.32.80.3
P/EBIT5.512.975.212.9
P/E15.918.230.118.2
P/CFO6.66.922.06.9
Total Yield12.7%11.1%3.3%11.1%
Dividend Yield6.4%5.7%0.0%5.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.8%9.1%2.4%9.1%
D/E1.40.30.40.4
Net D/E1.30.2-0.40.2

Returns

UPBDBBYGMEMedian
NameUpbound Best Buy GameStop  
1M Rtn-5.2%-8.8%5.0%-5.2%
3M Rtn-22.5%0.6%1.4%0.6%
6M Rtn-19.0%9.6%-22.5%-19.0%
12M Rtn-41.2%-12.1%-15.4%-15.4%
3Y Rtn-6.2%-1.0%-15.7%-6.2%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%-8.7%5.0%-5.2%
3M Excs Rtn-29.1%-7.6%-1.6%-7.6%
6M Excs Rtn-33.7%-5.1%-37.2%-33.7%
12M Excs Rtn-55.0%-26.7%-33.7%-33.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-74.8%-68.4%-81.0%-74.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Acima1,2221,1991,477390 
Rent-A-Center1,0611,0681,027999953
Corporate363427433305227
Mexico5751424234
Franchising1818151511
Preferred Lease    358
Total2,7212,7642,9931,7511,583


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,161,426
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.6%
Average Daily Volume935,018
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.45
Basic Shares Quantity56,703,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021