Upbound (UPBD)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $17.25 | Market Cap: $978.1 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Computer & Electronics Retail
Upbound (UPBD)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $17.25Market Cap: $978.1 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Computer & Electronics Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). | Key risksUPBD key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and restrictive covenants, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing. Themes include Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Platform as a Service (PaaS). |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 176% |
| Key risksUPBD key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and restrictive covenants, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UPBD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025, Upbound (UPBD) experienced a -29.2% decline in its stock price due to several key factors: **1. Negative market reaction to Q3 2025 earnings despite beating estimates.** On October 30, 2025, Upbound Group's stock declined following its third-quarter earnings report, even though the company exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. This decline was primarily attributed to broader market conditions and concerns regarding future guidance. **2. Tighter Full-Year 2025 EPS Guidance.** Concurrent with its Q3 results, Upbound Group narrowed its full-year 2025 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance range to $4.05 - $4.15. This revised guidance was viewed as a reduction in outlook, contributing to investor apprehension. **3. Stock hitting a 52-week low.** On November 6, 2025, Upbound Group's stock reached a 52-week low of $18.57, reflecting significant investor concern arising from broader market challenges and company-specific issues. The stock continued its downward trend, trading at $17.32 by December 19, 2025. **4. Concerns regarding credit stress and high leverage.** Analyst reports in December 2025 highlighted "credit stress in Acima" and "high leverage" as persistent issues for Upbound Group, suggesting that these factors, along with potential lease charge-offs and tighter underwriting, could impede future growth. **5. Significant fall in consensus EPS estimates.** In September 2025, consensus earnings per share estimates for Upbound Group dropped by 22%, indicating a material downgrade in analyst expectations for the company's future profitability.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPBD Return | 40% | 28% | -50% | 58% | -10% | -35% | -17% |
| Peers Return | � | -33% | -65% | 36% | 1% | -44% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPBD Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 39% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 39% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPBD Max Drawdown | -58% | -0% | -62% | -1% | -19% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -39% | -71% | -29% | -33% | -53% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRG, KPLT, FPAY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPBD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 780 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BBY, GME, UPBD
In The Past
Upbound's stock fell -73.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/27/2021. A -73.1% loss requires a 272.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UPBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 10312022 | UPBD | Upbound | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 32.8% | 31.5% | -5.5% |
| 02282022 | UPBD | Upbound | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.2% | 0.9% | -36.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 10312022 | UPBD | Upbound | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 32.8% | 31.5% | -5.5% |
| 02282022 | UPBD | Upbound | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.2% | 0.9% | -36.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Upbound
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,394 |
| Op Inc LTM | 132 |
| FCF LTM | 56 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 64 |
| CFO LTM | 87 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 93 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -2.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 2.0 |
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/CFO | 1.9 |
| Total Yield | 15.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -19.3% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -49.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -23.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -41.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -50.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -48.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -114.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -16.3% | -14.1% | -21.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -15.3% | -10.7% | 6.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | 19.1% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.1% | -6.6% | -15.4% |
| 10/31/2024 | 8.0% | 25.9% | 27.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -6.8% | -15.8% | -11.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 9.0% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -6.0% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 25.9% | 51.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.3% | -15.8% | -39.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |