O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $99.06 | Market Cap: $84.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $99.06Market Cap: $84.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ORLY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) stock moved by approximately -4.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Stock Decline Despite Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat.
O'Reilly Automotive reported record revenue and earnings for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025, surpassing Wall Street's expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Despite these positive financial results, the stock experienced a notable decline of 6.05% in after-hours trading following the earnings announcement on October 22, 2025.
2. Investor Concerns Over Valuation and Future Growth Prospects.
The post-earnings stock dip was partly attributed to broader market fluctuations and investor concerns regarding O'Reilly's future growth trajectory. Additionally, analysts noted that the stock's valuation metrics suggested it was trading above its fair value, indicated by a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.79x and a high EBITDA multiple.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORLY Return | 3% | 56% | 20% | 13% | 25% | 26% | 242% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 24% | -24% | 217% | 65% | 31% | 770% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORLY Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 65% | 42% | 55% | 62% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORLY Max Drawdown | -40% | -6% | -19% | -9% | -3% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -39% | -6% | -14% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AZO, CVNA, CASY, GNTX, SMP. See ORLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 336 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AZO, CVNA, CASY, GNTX, SMP
In The Past
O'Reilly Automotive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ORLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for O'Reilly Automotive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |