O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $91.54 | Market Cap: $77.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $91.54Market Cap: $77.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.4% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. O'Reilly Automotive provided lower-than-expected earnings per share (EPS) guidance for fiscal year 2026. The company projected EPS between $3.10 and $3.20, which was below the analyst consensus of $3.32, representing a miss of approximately 5% at the midpoint.
2. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share narrowly missed analyst expectations. O'Reilly Automotive reported an adjusted EPS of $0.71 for Q4 2025, falling slightly short of the analyst consensus estimate of $0.72.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.0% change in ORLY stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.70 | 91.54 | -10.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,463 | 17,782 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 14.3% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.7 | 30.4 | -12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 848 | 844 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | -10.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 9.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 13.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.7% change in ORLY stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.68 | 91.54 | -11.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,122 | 17,782 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 14.3% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.5 | 30.4 | -16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 854 | 844 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | -11.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | -0.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.2% | 10.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.0% change in ORLY stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.58 | 91.54 | 0.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,708 | 17,782 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 14.3% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.2 | 30.4 | -8.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 865 | 844 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | -0.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 13.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.4% change in ORLY stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.34 | 91.54 | 65.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,410 | 17,782 | 23.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.1% | 14.3% | -5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.9 | 30.4 | 27.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 938 | 844 | 11.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 65.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 21.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 56.0% | 20.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORLY Return | 56% | 20% | 13% | 25% | 15% | 3% | 213% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -9% | -26% | -19% | -14% | 19% | -18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORLY Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 40% | 42% | 48% | 50% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORLY Max Drawdown | -6% | -19% | -9% | -3% | 0% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -33% | -34% | -32% | -26% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AZO, AAP, GPC, LKQ, PRTS. See ORLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 336 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AZO, AAP, GPC, LKQ, PRTS
In The Past
O'Reilly Automotive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
It's like the Home Depot for car parts and maintenance.
Think of it as a comprehensive Lowe's, but exclusively for automotive parts, tools, and repair services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Automotive Hard Parts: New and remanufactured essential components for vehicle repair and operation, including alternators, brakes, engine parts, and fuel pumps.
- Maintenance Items & Fluids: Products for routine vehicle upkeep, such as antifreeze, filters, fluids, lighting, oil, and wiper blades.
- Automotive Tools & Equipment: A wide selection of tools for both do-it-yourself and professional automotive repair, along with professional service provider equipment.
- Vehicle Accessories: Items like floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories designed to enhance or customize vehicles.
- Auto Body Paint & Materials: Supplies and related materials for automotive body repair and finishing.
- Recycling Services: Programs for the responsible disposal and recycling of used oil, oil filters, and batteries.
- Diagnostic & Replacement Services: Assistance with battery, wiper, and bulb replacement, battery testing, electrical testing, and check engine light code extraction.
- Loaner Tool Program: A service that allows customers to borrow specialized tools for specific automotive repair tasks.
- Component Resurfacing & Customization: Services including drum and rotor resurfacing and the creation of custom hydraulic hoses.
- Professional Paint Shop Services: Mixing and provision of related materials for professional auto body paint applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) primarily serves two major categories of customers:
- Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Customers: These are individual consumers who purchase automotive parts, tools, and supplies to perform maintenance and repairs on their own vehicles.
- Professional Service Provider Customers: This category includes businesses such as independent repair shops, car dealerships, and other professional mechanics who purchase parts, tools, equipment, and supplies for the vehicles they service for their own clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which fundamentally changes the maintenance requirements and significantly reduces the demand for many traditional internal combustion engine parts and fluids that O'Reilly Automotive currently supplies.AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullLatest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ORLY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| Rev LTM | 15,849 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,167 |
| FCF LTM | 634 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 780 |
| CFO LTM | 977 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,186 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 19.4 |
| P/E | 27.3 |
| P/CFO | 11.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -35.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -107.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $91.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 77.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $94.70 | $97.01 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.3% | -5.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.0% | 22.1% |
| Downside Capture | 17.64 | 24.34 |
| Upside Capture | 2.97 | 25.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.9% | 13.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.16 | 0.17 | 0.12 | -0.06 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Up Beta | 1.16 | 1.17 | 0.95 | 0.69 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| Down Beta | 0.52 | 0.24 | -0.12 | -0.55 | -0.00 | 0.20 |
| Up Capture | -128% | -6% | -23% | -15% | 12% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 30 | 63 | 128 | 424 |
| Down Capture | -6% | -28% | 29% | 11% | 23% | 42% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 18 | 31 | 61 | 122 | 327 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 1.1% | 21.8% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 16.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 14.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 17.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 5.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 22.9% | 22.0% | 0.89 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 23.7% | 0.30 | 30.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 33.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 8.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 17.4% | 26.3% | 0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 45.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | -4.0% | -2.7% | -2.2% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.9% | -6.6% | -2.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | -2.1% | 2.5% | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | 0.0% | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | -3.5% | -8.0% | -10.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -3.8% | -2.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.4% | 9.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.6% | -11.9% | -10.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mancini, Christopher Andrew | SVP OF STORE OPERATIONS | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 101.31 | 2,355 | 238,585 | 2,837 | Form |
| 2 | Hopper, Philip M | SVP OF REAL ESTATE & EXPANSION | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 101.25 | 3,500 | 354,361 | 485,171 | Form |
| 3 | Fletcher, Jeremy Adam | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 100.00 | 3,795 | 379,500 | 3,587,600 | Form |
| 4 | Murphy, John Raymond | Indirectly in an IRA. | Sell | 11062025 | 92.60 | 3,125 | 289,376 | 752,378 | Form | |
| 5 | Sastre, Maria | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 102.31 | 595 | 60,877 | 1,630,390 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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