Tearsheet

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $99.06 | Market Cap: $84.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $99.06
Market Cap: $84.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ORLY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) stock moved by approximately -4.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Stock Decline Despite Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat.

O'Reilly Automotive reported record revenue and earnings for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025, surpassing Wall Street's expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Despite these positive financial results, the stock experienced a notable decline of 6.05% in after-hours trading following the earnings announcement on October 22, 2025. 2. Investor Concerns Over Valuation and Future Growth Prospects.

The post-earnings stock dip was partly attributed to broader market fluctuations and investor concerns regarding O'Reilly's future growth trajectory. Additionally, analysts noted that the stock's valuation metrics suggested it was trading above its fair value, indicated by a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.79x and a high EBITDA multiple.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ORLY Return3%56%20%13%25%26%242%
Peers Return34%24%-24%217%65%31%770%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ORLY Win Rate50%75%50%58%75%60% 
Peers Win Rate53%65%42%55%62%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ORLY Max Drawdown-40%-6%-19%-9%-3%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-39%-6%-14%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AZO, CVNA, CASY, GNTX, SMP. See ORLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventORLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven336 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven172 days1480 days

Compare to AZO, CVNA, CASY, GNTX, SMP


In The Past

O'Reilly Automotive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.9% gain to breakeven.

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About O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ORLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for O'Reilly Automotive

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ORLYAZOCVNACASYGNTXSMPMedian
NameO'Reilly.AutoZone Carvana Casey's .Gentex Standard. 
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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

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Returns

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive aftermarket parts15,81214,41013,32811,60410,150
Total15,81214,41013,32811,60410,150


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive aftermarket parts2,347    
Total2,347    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,392,832
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.9%
Average Daily Volume5,550,092
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.23
Basic Shares Quantity848,292,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021