O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $95.17 | Market Cap: $80.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $95.17Market Cap: $80.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.3 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x Key risksORLY key risks include [1] intense competition from both traditional and e-commerce auto parts retailers, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
| Key risksORLY key risks include [1] intense competition from both traditional and e-commerce auto parts retailers, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Consistent Strong Financial Performance with Balanced Outlook. O'Reilly Automotive reported robust financial results during the period, with fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share increasing 13% to $0.71 and comparable store sales growing 5.6%. This strong performance continued into the first quarter of 2026, with diluted earnings per share rising 16% to $0.72, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.69, and comparable store sales increasing 8.1%. Despite these earnings beats, the company maintained its full-year comparable store sales guidance of 3% to 5%, suggesting a balanced outlook that factored into the stock's stability as positive results were met with a consistent future forecast.
2. Strategic Share Repurchases Providing Price Support. The company's active share repurchase program demonstrated confidence in its valuation and provided a floor for the stock price. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, O'Reilly Automotive repurchased 10.0 million shares for $923 million. This substantial return of capital to shareholders helped to absorb selling pressure and stabilize the stock during the specified period.
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1. Consistent Strong Financial Performance with Balanced Outlook. O'Reilly Automotive reported robust financial results during the period, with fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share increasing 13% to $0.71 and comparable store sales growing 5.6%. This strong performance continued into the first quarter of 2026, with diluted earnings per share rising 16% to $0.72, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.69, and comparable store sales increasing 8.1%. Despite these earnings beats, the company maintained its full-year comparable store sales guidance of 3% to 5%, suggesting a balanced outlook that factored into the stock's stability as positive results were met with a consistent future forecast.
2. Strategic Share Repurchases Providing Price Support. The company's active share repurchase program demonstrated confidence in its valuation and provided a floor for the stock price. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, O'Reilly Automotive repurchased 10.0 million shares for $923 million. This substantial return of capital to shareholders helped to absorb selling pressure and stabilize the stock during the specified period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.9% change in ORLY stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.41 | 94.58 | -3.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,463 | 17,782 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 14.3% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.6 | 31.5 | -6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 848 | 844 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | -3.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 20.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.9% | 31.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in ORLY stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.44 | 94.58 | 0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,122 | 17,782 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 14.3% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.3 | 31.5 | -5.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 854 | 844 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 15.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.3% | 25.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.2% change in ORLY stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.35 | 94.58 | 0.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,708 | 17,782 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 14.3% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.2 | 31.5 | -8.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 865 | 844 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 0.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 4.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 22.5% | 13.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.7% change in ORLY stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.15 | 94.58 | 54.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,410 | 17,782 | 23.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.1% | 14.3% | -5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.4 | 31.5 | 19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 938 | 844 | 11.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 54.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 66.2% | 20.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORLY Return | 56% | 20% | 13% | 25% | 15% | 4% | 214% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -9% | -26% | -19% | -14% | 24% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORLY Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 40% | 42% | 48% | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORLY Max Drawdown | -6% | -19% | -9% | -3% | 0% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -33% | -34% | -32% | -26% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AZO, AAP, GPC, LKQ, PRTS. See ORLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 6 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.8% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 47 days |
In The Past
O'Reilly Automotive's stock fell -0.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ORLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 6 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
O'Reilly Automotive's stock fell -0.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. Its stores offer auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. The company's stores also provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Its stores offer do-it-yourself and professional service provider customers a selection of products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
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It's like the Home Depot for car parts and maintenance.
Think of it as a comprehensive Lowe's, but exclusively for automotive parts, tools, and repair services.
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```html- Automotive Hard Parts: New and remanufactured essential components for vehicle repair and operation, including alternators, brakes, engine parts, and fuel pumps.
- Maintenance Items & Fluids: Products for routine vehicle upkeep, such as antifreeze, filters, fluids, lighting, oil, and wiper blades.
- Automotive Tools & Equipment: A wide selection of tools for both do-it-yourself and professional automotive repair, along with professional service provider equipment.
- Vehicle Accessories: Items like floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories designed to enhance or customize vehicles.
- Auto Body Paint & Materials: Supplies and related materials for automotive body repair and finishing.
- Recycling Services: Programs for the responsible disposal and recycling of used oil, oil filters, and batteries.
- Diagnostic & Replacement Services: Assistance with battery, wiper, and bulb replacement, battery testing, electrical testing, and check engine light code extraction.
- Loaner Tool Program: A service that allows customers to borrow specialized tools for specific automotive repair tasks.
- Component Resurfacing & Customization: Services including drum and rotor resurfacing and the creation of custom hydraulic hoses.
- Professional Paint Shop Services: Mixing and provision of related materials for professional auto body paint applications.
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```htmlO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) primarily serves two major categories of customers:
- Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Customers: These are individual consumers who purchase automotive parts, tools, and supplies to perform maintenance and repairs on their own vehicles.
- Professional Service Provider Customers: This category includes businesses such as independent repair shops, car dealerships, and other professional mechanics who purchase parts, tools, equipment, and supplies for the vehicles they service for their own clients.
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```htmlBrad Beckham - Chief Executive Officer
Brad Beckham began his career with O'Reilly Automotive in 1996 as a Parts Specialist and has since progressed through numerous leadership roles within the company, including Store Manager, District Manager, Regional Manager, Divisional Vice President, Vice President of Eastern Store Operations and Sales, Senior Vice President of Central Store Operations and Sales, Executive Vice President of Store Operations and Sales, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Co-President. He was promoted to Chief Executive Officer in February 2024. Beckham's career highlights his internal development within O'Reilly, with no external public-company directorships or disclosed outside executive roles identified.
Jeremy Fletcher - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jeremy Fletcher joined O'Reilly Automotive in 2005. Prior to his tenure at O'Reilly, he worked as a Certified Public Accountant in public practice and held an SEC reporting and planning role for a Fortune 1000 Corporation. His career at O'Reilly includes positions such as Financial Reporting and Budgeting Manager, Director of Finance, Vice President of Finance & Controller, and Senior Vice President of Finance and Controller. He has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since May 2022.
Brent Kirby - President
Brent Kirby became a team member of O'Reilly Automotive in 2018. Before joining O'Reilly, he spent 31 years at Lowe's Companies, Inc., where he most recently served as Chief Supply Chain Officer. At O'Reilly, Kirby's roles have included Senior Vice President of Omnichannel, Executive Vice President of Supply Chain, Executive Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, and Co-President. He was promoted to President in 2024.
Greg Henslee - Executive Chairman of the Board
Greg Henslee's extensive career with O'Reilly Automotive began in 1982 as a part-time Distribution Center Team Member. He served as Chief Executive Officer from 2005 to 2018 and held President and Co-President roles from 1999 to 2013. Under his leadership as CEO, O'Reilly experienced significant growth, expanding from 1,249 stores and $1.7 billion in sales in 2005 to 5,019 stores and $9 billion in sales by the end of 2017. He currently serves as Executive Chairman of the Board.
David O'Reilly - Executive Vice Chairman of the Board
David O'Reilly has been with O'Reilly Automotive full-time since 1972, having worked in various capacities within the company since its early days, as his family founded the company in 1957. His roles have included Vice President from 1975 to 1993, President from 1993 to 1999, Chief Executive Officer from 1993 to 2005, Co-Chairman of the Board from 1999 to 2005, and Chairman of the Board from 2005 to 2021. He led the company through its initial public offering. David O'Reilly has served as Executive Vice Chairman of the Board since May 2021.
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Here are the key risks to O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY):
- Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs): The increasing adoption of electric vehicles poses a significant long-term risk to O'Reilly Automotive. EVs generally require less maintenance and a different mix of parts compared to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, potentially reducing demand for many of the core products O'Reilly currently sells, such as oil, filters, spark plugs, and exhaust system components. While O'Reilly is adapting its inventory to include EV/hybrid consumables and enhancing related services, the structural shift in vehicle technology could reshape aftermarket demand and margins.
- Intensifying Competition: O'Reilly Automotive operates in a highly competitive automotive aftermarket industry. The company faces ongoing pressure from direct rivals like AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts, and NAPA, as well as from lower-cost big box stores and online marketplaces. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, affect comparable store sales growth, and potentially impact gross margins.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: The company's business relies on a robust and efficient supply chain to source and distribute automotive parts. Global supply chains remain vulnerable to various disruptions, including geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics. Such disruptions can lead to increased costs for parts, shipping delays, and scarcity of inventory, which can directly impact O'Reilly's operational efficiency and ability to meet customer demand.
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The increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which fundamentally changes the maintenance requirements and significantly reduces the demand for many traditional internal combustion engine parts and fluids that O'Reilly Automotive currently supplies.AI Analysis | Feedback
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) operates within the automotive aftermarket, offering a wide range of parts, tools, supplies, equipment, accessories, and services for both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional service provider customers.
Addressable Markets for O'Reilly Automotive's Main Products and Services:
United States Market:
- Overall Automotive Aftermarket: The entire U.S. automotive aftermarket, which includes light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, was projected at nearly USD 535 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately USD 574 billion in 2026.
- Automotive Parts: The U.S. light-duty aftermarket parts market was projected to be over USD 400 billion in 2024.
- Automotive Accessories (Specialty Equipment): Sales in the automotive specialty-equipment market reached USD 52.3 billion in 2023.
- Automotive Repair & Maintenance Services: The U.S. automotive repair and maintenance service market was valued at USD 183.4 billion in 2023. This market is forecast to increase by USD 81 billion between 2024 and 2029.
- Automotive Garage Equipment: The U.S. Automotive Garage Equipment Market size is expected to reach USD 7 billion by 2030.
Mexico Market:
- Overall Automotive Aftermarket: The Mexican automotive aftermarket sector generated total revenues of USD 17.5 billion in 2022. Another projection indicates the market generated USD 11,324.5 million (USD 11.32 billion) in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 16,661.8 million (USD 16.66 billion) by 2033.
- Automotive Aftermarket Accessories: The Mexico automotive aftermarket accessories market size reached USD 7,448.3 million (USD 7.45 billion) in 2025.
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O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Aggressive New Store Expansion Across North America: The company plans to significantly increase its physical footprint by opening 225-235 net new stores in 2026, building on the 207 net openings in 2025. This expansion includes continued growth within the United States, further penetration into the Mexican market, and leveraging the 2024 acquisition of Groupe Del Vasto to reinforce its presence in Canada.
- Continued Market Share Expansion in the Professional Service Provider Segment: O'Reilly Automotive anticipates sustained strong performance from its professional business, which demonstrated over 10% comparable store sales growth in Q4 2025. This growth is expected to be fueled by improving first-call status and enhancing delivery speed through its hub-and-spoke distribution networks.
- Comparable Store Sales Growth Driven by Average Ticket Growth and Steady DIY Demand: The company projects comparable store sales growth of 3% to 5% for 2026. This is expected to be largely influenced by average ticket growth, which includes targeted pricing initiatives to offset inflationary costs, alongside continued demand from do-it-yourself customers, which is anticipated to see modest improvements and positively contribute to comparable store sales.
- Enhancements to the Distribution Network and Inventory Availability: Strategic investments in its parts distribution network, such as the new distribution center in Stafford, Virginia, are aimed at improving service capabilities and ensuring industry-leading parts availability. This modernization supports efficient inventory management, which is crucial for satisfying both professional service providers and DIY consumers.
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Share Repurchases
- O'Reilly Automotive repurchased $2.10 billion of its common stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $2.08 billion of its common stock in 2024.
- In November 2025, the Board of Directors approved an additional $2.0 billion for the share repurchase program, increasing the total authorization to $29.75 billion.
Share Issuance
- O'Reilly Automotive completed a 15-for-1 forward stock split in June 2025.
- The number of outstanding shares has generally decreased over the past few years due to share buybacks.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2023, O'Reilly Automotive acquired Vast-Auto Distribution (Groupe Del Vasto), marking its entry into the Canadian market.
- The company expanded its international presence by opening its first distribution center and two retail stores in Puerto Rico in May 2023.
- In July 2023, O'Reilly opened its first O'Reilly-branded distribution center in Guadalajara, Mexico, furthering its expansion in the Mexican market.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, primarily focused on opening 225-235 new stores.
- Capital expenditures were $1.17 billion in 2025, with a focus on distribution centers, IT investments, and store growth (200-210 new stores).
- In 2024, capital expenditures were approximately $1.02 billion, and the company opened 198 net new stores and relocated its Atlanta distribution center.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 75.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| Rev LTM | 15,852 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,144 |
| FCF LTM | 678 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 715 |
| CFO LTM | 1,003 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,118 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -8.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.3 |
| P/EBIT | 19.8 |
| P/E | 27.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -39.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -117.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $94.58 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 79.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $92.69 | $97.29 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.0% | -2.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.5% | 22.7% |
| Downside Capture | -0.10 | 0.09 |
| Upside Capture | -5.54 | 15.46 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 14.7% | 3.6% |
ORLY Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Up Beta | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Down Beta | -4.13 | 0.38 | 0.48 | -0.01 | -0.19 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | 13% | 33% | -6% | 12% | 7% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 31 | 68 | 129 | 420 |
| Down Capture | 160% | 63% | 41% | 28% | 22% | 42% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 57 | 122 | 332 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | -1.4% | 22.4% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 22.4% | 18.7% | 0.95 | 14.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 5.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | 18.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 27.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | -1.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 19.9% | 22.4% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.9% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 33.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | -1.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 8.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 17.8% | 26.5% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 45.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 8.4% | 3.4% | |
| 2/4/2026 | -4.0% | -2.7% | -2.2% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.9% | -6.6% | -2.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | -2.1% | 2.5% | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | 0.0% | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -3.8% | -2.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.4% | 9.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.6% | -11.9% | -10.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 18.70 Bil | 18.85 Bil | 19.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 18.85 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Comparable store sales | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 |
| 2026 Gross profit as a percentage of sales | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.52 for 2026 |
| 2026 Operating income as a percentage of sales | 0.19 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5% | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 0.19 for 2026 |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 3.15 | 3.2 | 3.25 | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.15 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | 3.10 Bil | 3.30 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 1.30 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.35 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 1.80 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.95 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net new store openings | 225 | 230 | 235 | 12.2% | Raised | Actual: 205 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Comparable store sales | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | -11.1% | -0.5% | Lowered | Actual: 0.04 for 2025 |
| 2026 Revenue | 18.70 Bil | 18.85 Bil | 19.00 Bil | 6.5% | Raised | Actual: 17.70 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross profit as a percentage of sales | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.6% | 0.3% | Raised | Actual: 0.51 for 2025 |
| 2026 Operating income as a percentage of sales | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Actual: 0.19 for 2025 |
| 2026 Effective income tax rate | 22.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | Raised | Actual: 21.6% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 3.1 | 3.15 | 3.2 | 6.8% | Raised | Actual: 2.95 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | 3.10 Bil | 3.30 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 17.9% | Raised | Actual: 2.80 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 1.30 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 17.4% | Raised | Actual: 1.15 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 1.80 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 18.2% | Raised | Actual: 1.65 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sastre, Maria | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 92.68 | 1,000 | 92,681 | 1,384,191 | Form | |
| 2 | Mancini, Christopher Andrew | SVP OF STORE OPERATIONS | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 101.31 | 2,355 | 238,585 | 2,837 | Form |
| 3 | Hopper, Philip M | SVP OF REAL ESTATE & EXPANSION | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 101.25 | 3,500 | 354,361 | 485,171 | Form |
| 4 | Fletcher, Jeremy Adam | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 100.00 | 3,795 | 379,500 | 3,587,600 | Form |
| 5 | Murphy, John Raymond | Indirectly in an IRA. | Sell | 11062025 | 92.60 | 3,125 | 289,376 | 752,378 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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