Tearsheet

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $93.0 | Market Cap: $78.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $93.0
Market Cap: $78.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.5%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.2x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  Key risks
ORLY key risks include [1] intense competition from both traditional and e-commerce auto parts retailers, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.5%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.2x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x
5 Key risks
ORLY key risks include [1] intense competition from both traditional and e-commerce auto parts retailers, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ORLY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -10.4% stock movement for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Negative Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Despite Beat: Despite O'Reilly Automotive reporting Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.85 and revenue of $4.71 billion, both of which surpassed analyst expectations, the stock experienced a significant drop, including a 6.05% fall in after-hours trading following the October 22/23 earnings release. This negative market reaction indicated investor disappointment that overshadowed the positive headline numbers.

2. Trimmed Full-Year Free Cash Flow (FCF) Guidance: The company adjusted its full-year 2025 Free Cash Flow (FCF) guidance downward from a previous estimate of $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion, to a revised range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion. This reduction in FCF projections likely contributed to investor concerns about future profitability and operational efficiency, despite other positive earnings figures.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ORLY Return3%56%20%13%25%18%218%
Peers Return92%47%-9%-26%-19%-13%34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ORLY Win Rate50%75%50%58%75%58% 
Peers Win Rate60%62%40%42%48%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ORLY Max Drawdown-40%-6%-19%-9%-3%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-6%-33%-34%-32%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AZO, AAP, GPC, LKQ, PRTS. See ORLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventORLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven336 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven172 days1,480 days

Compare to AZO, CVNA, CASY, GNTX, SMP


In The Past

O'Reilly Automotive's stock fell -23.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -23.0% loss requires a 29.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

Better Bets than O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ORLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for O'Reilly Automotive

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ORLYAZOAAPGPCLKQPRTSMedian
NameO'Reilly.AutoZone Advance .Genuine .LKQ CarParts. 
Mkt Price92.853,393.3542.79128.0630.150.4367.82
Mkt Cap78.856.72.617.87.80.012.8
Rev LTM17,46318,9398,62524,06114,04656115,755
Op Inc LTM3,3713,610-7481,4151,255-531,335
FCF LTM1,5631,790-401134676-33405
FCF 3Y Avg1,9681,955-426317951713
CFO LTM2,7533,117-191666948-25807
CFO 3Y Avg3,0023,0211691,1401,094151,117

Growth & Margins

ORLYAZOAAPGPCLKQPRTSMedian
NameO'Reilly.AutoZone Advance .Genuine .LKQ CarParts. 
Rev Chg LTM6.2%2.4%-5.3%3.3%-3.0%-8.3%-0.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.5%5.3%-7.4%4.1%2.4%-4.4%3.2%
Rev Chg Q7.8%0.6%-5.2%4.9%-1.9%-11.7%-0.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%0.2%-1.3%1.2%-0.5%-2.9%-0.1%
Op Mgn LTM19.3%19.1%-8.7%5.9%8.9%-9.5%7.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.7%19.8%-2.2%6.7%9.8%-5.3%8.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.6%0.4%0.1%-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM15.8%16.5%-2.2%2.8%6.7%-4.4%4.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.3%16.5%1.9%4.9%8.0%1.9%6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM8.9%9.5%-4.7%0.6%4.8%-6.0%2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.0%10.7%-0.5%2.7%5.8%-0.3%4.3%

Valuation

ORLYAZOAAPGPCLKQPRTSMedian
NameO'Reilly.AutoZone Advance .Genuine .LKQ CarParts. 
Mkt Cap78.856.72.617.87.80.012.8
P/S5.23.80.40.80.60.10.7
P/EBIT27.019.8-4.416.16.5-16.1
P/E36.828.7-9.823.811.1-0.817.5
P/CFO33.223.0-19.329.08.3-1.715.7
Total Yield2.7%3.5%-8.6%7.1%13.0%-131.2%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.6%2.9%4.0%0.0%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%3.6%0.1%3.2%7.6%-3.2%
D/E0.10.21.40.30.8-0.3
Net D/E0.10.20.60.30.7-0.3

Returns

ORLYAZOAAPGPCLKQPRTSMedian
NameO'Reilly.AutoZone Advance .Genuine .LKQ CarParts. 
1M Rtn-6.7%-12.0%-12.5%2.0%0.9%-11.1%-8.9%
3M Rtn-11.2%-19.8%-31.4%-7.3%-2.1%-43.9%-15.5%
6M Rtn5.1%-5.8%-11.1%9.4%-16.6%-47.2%-8.4%
12M Rtn11.8%2.2%-1.6%11.6%-14.8%-53.8%0.3%
3Y Rtn71.6%42.6%-67.5%-21.1%-37.7%-93.7%-29.4%
1M Excs Rtn-7.5%-12.7%-13.3%1.2%0.1%-11.8%-9.6%
3M Excs Rtn-11.8%-19.2%-29.8%-7.8%-3.5%-46.6%-15.5%
6M Excs Rtn-7.3%-18.2%-23.4%-3.0%-29.0%-59.5%-20.8%
12M Excs Rtn-1.5%-10.4%-11.3%-2.0%-29.0%-67.5%-10.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-1.5%-30.0%-136.9%-91.8%-107.7%-161.2%-99.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive aftermarket parts15,81214,41013,32811,60410,150
Total15,81214,41013,32811,60410,150


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive aftermarket parts2,347    
Total2,347    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,361,505
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.8%
Average Daily Volume4,822,859
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.77
Basic Shares Quantity848,292,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-2.9%-6.6%-2.2%
7/23/20252.9%4.2%7.8%
4/23/2025-2.1%2.5%-1.1%
2/5/2025-1.3%-1.8%-2.2%
10/23/20240.0%-3.1%0.5%
7/24/20244.0%7.2%7.3%
4/24/2024-3.5%-8.0%-10.7%
2/7/2024-4.3%-1.7%1.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121415
# Negative12109
Median Positive3.2%4.5%4.6%
Median Negative-3.8%-4.7%-2.3%
Max Positive5.4%9.4%12.8%
Max Negative-12.6%-11.9%-12.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021