TJX Companies (TJX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $155.66 | Market Cap: $173.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
TJX Companies (TJX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $155.66Market Cap: $173.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 25x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | Key risksTJX key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its physical "treasure-hunt" retail model given a minimal e-commerce presence and [2] a potential failure to execute its core opportunistic buying and inventory management strategy. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Consumption, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 25x |
| Key risksTJX key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its physical "treasure-hunt" retail model given a minimal e-commerce presence and [2] a potential failure to execute its core opportunistic buying and inventory management strategy. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TJX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate 14.3% stock movement for TJX Companies (TJX) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2026 Earnings Performance and Upgraded Guidance: TJX Companies reported robust third-quarter 2026 results on November 19, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.22. The company's revenue of $15.12 billion also surpassed expectations. This strong performance led to a pre-market stock price increase of 3.89% upon the announcement. Management subsequently raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $4.63 to $4.66 and projected solid fourth-quarter sales, signaling continued confidence in future growth.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases: Throughout the specified period, TJX received multiple positive reassessments from financial analysts. Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy" in August 2025, and Erste Group Bank initiated coverage with a "buy" rating in early September 2025. Furthermore, in November and December 2025, firms like Bank of America, TD Cowen, JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS Group, Robert W. Baird, and Telsey Advisory Group significantly raised their price targets and reiterated "buy" or "outperform" ratings, contributing to positive investor perception.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TJX Return | 12% | 13% | 7% | 20% | 31% | 30% | 175% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 94% | -11% | 15% | 2% | 37% | 157% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TJX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 58% | 40% | 52% | 48% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TJX Max Drawdown | -40% | -8% | -27% | -7% | -2% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -8% | -42% | -29% | -22% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROST, BURL, M, DDS, KSS. See TJX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TJX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 200 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -50.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ROST, TGT, M, KSS, TJX
In The Past
TJX Companies's stock fell -28.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -28.3% loss requires a 39.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TJX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TJX Companies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 169.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| Rev LTM | 18,889 |
| Op Inc LTM | 847 |
| FCF LTM | 808 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 644 |
| CFO LTM | 1,390 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,185 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.7 |
| P/E | 20.0 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 56.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 44.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marmaxx | 33,413 | 30,545 | 29,483 | 19,363 | 25,665 |
| HomeGoods | 8,990 | 8,264 | 8,995 | 6,096 | 6,356 |
| TJX International | 6,768 | 6,215 | 5,729 | 3,842 | 5,665 |
| TJX Canada | 5,046 | 4,912 | 4,343 | 2,836 | 4,031 |
| Total | 54,217 | 49,936 | 48,550 | 32,137 | 41,717 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marmaxx | 4,597 | 3,883 | 3,813 | 891 | 3,470 |
| HomeGoods | 861 | 522 | 907 | 510 | 681 |
| TJX Canada | 715 | 690 | 485 | 124 | 516 |
| TJX International | 332 | 347 | 161 | -504 | 307 |
| General corporate expense | -708 | -582 | -611 | -439 | -557 |
| Total | 5,797 | 4,860 | 4,755 | 582 | 4,416 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marmaxx | 12,993 | 12,170 | 11,229 | 10,220 | 11,163 |
| Corporate | 6,689 | 6,511 | 7,293 | 11,317 | 4,023 |
| TJX International | 4,154 | 4,075 | 4,281 | 4,389 | 4,284 |
| HomeGoods | 3,828 | 3,590 | 3,461 | 2,851 | 2,785 |
| TJX Canada | 2,083 | 2,003 | 2,197 | 2,035 | 1,890 |
| Total | 29,747 | 28,349 | 28,461 | 30,814 | 24,145 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | 0.2% | 4.7% | |
| 8/20/2025 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.9% |
| 5/21/2025 | -2.9% | -6.5% | -8.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.2% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| 8/21/2024 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 13.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | 0.6% | -3.1% | 0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.7% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 8.9% | 13.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -7.5% | -26.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12022025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4022025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4032024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11292023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3292023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11292022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3302022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Benjamin Peter | SEVP, Group President | 9092025 | Sell | 139.23 | 1,500 | 208,845 | 21,003,542 | Form |
| 1 | Nemerov Jackwyn | 9032025 | Sell | 138.00 | 1,192 | 164,496 | 132,066 | Form | |
| 2 | LANE AMY B | 6042025 | Sell | 128.09 | 950 | 121,689 | 2,909,253 | Form | |
| 3 | Benjamin Peter | SEVP, Group President | 5232025 | Sell | 129.77 | 4,123 | 535,042 | 19,771,108 | Form |
| 4 | Herrman Ernie | CEO & President | 3242025 | Sell | 116.54 | 15,000 | 1,748,058 | 54,677,972 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |