Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $94.22 | Market Cap: $14.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $94.22Market Cap: $14.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DECK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. However, search results for Deckers Outdoor (DECK) in 2025 indicate significant stock movements and related news occurred earlier in the fiscal year 2025, particularly around the release of Q3 and Q4 2025 earnings. While the precise -20.6% movement within the requested future timeframe cannot be confirmed, the provided search results highlight factors that led to notable declines in DECK's stock price during early to mid-2025.
Here are key points explaining stock declines for Deckers Outdoor in fiscal year 2025:
**1. Weak Q4 and Q1 Guidance Miss.**
**2. HOKA's Slowing Trajectory and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Deceleration.**
**3. Broader Market Concerns about Consumer Demand and the Competitive Landscape.**
**4. Impact of Tariffs and Rising Prices.**
**5. Despite Strong Q3 and Q4 2025 Financial Results, Investor Sentiment Remained Cautious.**
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DECK Return | 70% | 28% | 9% | 67% | 82% | -55% | 226% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 37% | -22% | 5% | -0% | -1% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DECK Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 50% | 30% | 45% | 38% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DECK Max Drawdown | -46% | -3% | -38% | -2% | -2% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -4% | -39% | -14% | -11% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NKE, LEVI, CROX, SHOO, FWDI. See DECK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DECK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 337.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 473 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NKE, LEVI, CROX, SHOO, FWDI
In The Past
Deckers Outdoor's stock fell -48.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -48.4% loss requires a 94.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DECK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.6% | 12.6% | -2.4% |
| 03312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -17.9% | -28.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.6% | 12.6% | -2.4% |
| 03312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -17.9% | -28.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Deckers Outdoor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unallocated cash and cash equivalents | 1,502 | 982 | 844 | 1,089 | 649 |
| Unallocated other corporate assets | 504 | 414 | 393 | 320 | 312 |
| HOKA brand wholesale | 436 | 446 | 293 | 168 | 125 |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 264 | 219 | 191 | 196 | 243 |
| UGG brand wholesale | 247 | 262 | 383 | 212 | 245 |
| Teva brand wholesale | 82 | 95 | 91 | 87 | 90 |
| Unallocated deferred tax assets, net | 73 | 73 | 64 | 37 | 28 |
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 19 | 41 | 41 | 38 | 50 |
| Other brands wholesale | 9 | 24 | 32 | 19 | 22 |
| Total | 3,136 | 2,556 | 2,332 | 2,168 | 1,765 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5232025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2032025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5242024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5262023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2062023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5272022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2072022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |