Garmin (GRMN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $199.46 | Market Cap: $38.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Consumer Electronics
Garmin (GRMN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $199.46Market Cap: $38.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Consumer Electronics
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Precision Positioning & Navigation. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Precision Positioning & Navigation. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GRMN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
During the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Garmin's stock (GRMN) experienced a decline of 17.2%, influenced by several key factors.
1. Missed Q3 Revenue Estimates and Segment Weakness. Garmin reported third-quarter 2025 net sales of $1.77 billion, which fell short of analyst consensus estimates by approximately $30 million. The Outdoor segment's revenue declined by 5%, primarily due to challenging comparisons from prior-year product launches and the late Q3 introduction of new fēnix/Phoenix 8 Pro products. Additionally, the Auto OEM segment recorded an operating loss, attributed to increased warranty accruals on sales from previous periods.
2. Flat Pro Forma EPS and Margin Pressures. While Garmin achieved a 12% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, its pro forma earnings per share (EPS) of $1.99, which met expectations, remained flat compared to the prior-year quarter. This performance was accompanied by a decrease in gross margin, impacted by higher product costs stemming from tariffs and a stronger Taiwan dollar. Furthermore, the company's effective tax rate rose to 21.2% due to U.S. tax legislation, further pressuring profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRMN Return | 26% | 15% | -30% | 43% | 63% | -3% | 129% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 11% | -34% | -8% | 21% | 11% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRMN Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 32% | 60% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRMN Max Drawdown | -34% | -4% | -41% | 0% | -7% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -12% | -47% | -32% | -25% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TDY, CODA, MIND, GRMN, SONO. See GRMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 713.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4444 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TDY, CODA, MIND, GRMN, SONO
In The Past
Garmin's stock fell -56.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/30/2021. A -56.0% loss requires a 127.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GRMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302022 | GRMN | Garmin | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.6% | 35.3% | -2.2% |
| 02282022 | GRMN | Garmin | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -16.9% | -8.5% | -27.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302022 | GRMN | Garmin | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.6% | 35.3% | -2.2% |
| 02282022 | GRMN | Garmin | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -16.9% | -8.5% | -27.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Garmin
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 1,697 | 1,770 | 1,282 | 1,128 | 918 |
| Fitness | 1,345 | 1,109 | 1,534 | 1,317 | 1,048 |
| Marine | 917 | 904 | 875 | 658 | 509 |
| Aviation | 846 | 793 | 712 | 623 | 735 |
| Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | 423 | 284 | 255 | 185 | 183 |
| Consumer Auto | 325 | 275 | 366 | ||
| Total | 5,228 | 4,860 | 4,983 | 4,187 | 3,758 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 515 | 573 | 476 | 441 | 334 |
| Fitness | 232 | 105 | 359 | 319 | 192 |
| Aviation | 226 | 213 | 193 | 137 | 253 |
| Marine | 179 | 215 | 250 | 176 | 110 |
| Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | -61 | -79 | -108 | -60 | -6 |
| Consumer Auto | 48 | 41 | 63 | ||
| Total | 1,092 | 1,028 | 1,219 | 1,054 | 946 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |