Genesco (GCO)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $28.41 | Market Cap: $293.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Genesco (GCO)
Market Price (4/5/2026): $28.41Market Cap: $293.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 142% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.8% Key risksGCO key risks include [1] an overleveraged balance sheet, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 142% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.8% |
| Key risksGCO key risks include [1] an overleveraged balance sheet, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Genesco (GCO) stock has gained about 15% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Genesco's Q4 Fiscal 2026 results significantly exceeded analyst expectations, with net sales reaching $800 million, a 7.2% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $3.74, surpassing estimates by 1.6% and 4.3% respectively. The company's adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal year 2027 was also set at $2.10 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 8.7%.
2. The company demonstrated sustained comparable sales momentum, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales growth in Q4 Fiscal 2026, with an overall increase of 9%. This performance was largely driven by the Journeys segment, which posted double-digit comparable sales growth of 12%.
Show more
1. Genesco's Q4 Fiscal 2026 results significantly exceeded analyst expectations, with net sales reaching $800 million, a 7.2% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $3.74, surpassing estimates by 1.6% and 4.3% respectively. The company's adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal year 2027 was also set at $2.10 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 8.7%.
2. The company demonstrated sustained comparable sales momentum, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales growth in Q4 Fiscal 2026, with an overall increase of 9%. This performance was largely driven by the Journeys segment, which posted double-digit comparable sales growth of 12%.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.6% change in GCO stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 33169.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.77 | 28.39 | 14.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,382 | 2,436 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 33169.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 6,563.4 | 22.1 | -99.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCO | 14.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 37.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.4% | 49.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.1% change in GCO stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.99 | 28.39 | -2.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,362 | 2,436 | 3.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -4.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 10 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCO | -2.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.6% | 38.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.7% change in GCO stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.23 | 28.39 | 33.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,325 | 2,436 | 4.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | 23.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 10 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCO | 33.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 47.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.2% | 53.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.0% change in GCO stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -81.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.88 | 28.39 | -23.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,385 | 2,436 | 2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 0.5% | -81.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.1 | 22.1 | 262.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 12 | 10 | 15.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCO | -23.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 38.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.9% | 43.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GCO Return | 113% | -28% | -23% | 21% | -42% | 15% | -5% |
| Peers Return | 51% | -24% | 22% | 37% | -23% | -9% | 35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GCO Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 52% | 42% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GCO Max Drawdown | -6% | -39% | -61% | -33% | -60% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -41% | -22% | -21% | -56% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DECK, CAL, WWW, SCVL, DBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 446.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 199.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,394 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 946 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DECK, CAL, WWW, SCVL, DBI
In The Past
Genesco's stock fell -75.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -75.7% loss requires a 311.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Genesco (GCO)
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce and catalogs for young men, women, and children. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of men's dress and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, as well as women's footwear and accessories. The Licensed Brands segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and G.H. Bass brands for men, women, and children, as well as designs and manufactures the STARTER and ETONIC brands footwear. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated approximately 1,425 retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy names. Its e-commerce websites include journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, johnstonmurphy.com, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.ca, nashvilleshoewarehouse.com, and dockersshoes.com. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
AI Analysis | Feedback
It's like a smaller Wolverine World Wide, a footwear giant that owns and operates a diverse portfolio of shoe brands and retail chains.
Imagine a footwear version of Gap Inc., where instead of clothing, they operate multiple distinct shoe store chains like Journeys (for youth fashion) and Johnston & Murphy (for classic styles).
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Footwear: Genesco offers a wide range of footwear, including casual, athletic, dress, and children's shoes, sold through its various retail chains, e-commerce platforms, and under licensed brands.
- Apparel: The company provides men's and women's apparel primarily through its Johnston & Murphy Group segment.
- Accessories: Genesco sells various accessories for men, women, and children across its Journeys, Johnston & Murphy, and other retail groups.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Genesco (GCO) primarily sells to individual consumers through its extensive network of retail stores and e-commerce websites. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Youth and Young Adults: This segment is primarily targeted by the Journeys Group (Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Little Burgundy) and Schuh Group, offering trendy, casual, and athletic footwear and accessories for young men, women, and children.
- Adults (Men and Women): The Johnston & Murphy Group caters to this demographic with men's dress and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, as well as women's footwear and accessories. The Licensed Brands segment (e.g., Levi's, Dockers, G.H. Bass) also markets footwear for adult men and women.
- Children: Served through the Journeys Kidz brand and various Licensed Brands (e.g., Levi's, G.H. Bass, STARTER, ETONIC), offering footwear for younger consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The following are major suppliers for Genesco (GCO), primarily supplying branded merchandise for its Journeys and Schuh retail segments:
- Nike, Inc. (NKE)
- VF Corporation (VFC)
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
- Crocs, Inc. (CROX)
- Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)
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Mimi E. Vaughn, Board Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Vaughn was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Genesco in February 2020 and assumed the additional role of Board Chair in July 2020. Effective March 6, 2026, she also assumed the role of Interim Chief Financial Officer. Ms. Vaughn began her career with Genesco in September 2003 as vice president of strategy and business development, progressing through various leadership roles including senior vice president of strategy and shared services, chief financial officer from 2015 to 2019, and chief operating officer. Prior to joining Genesco, she served as executive vice president of business development and marketing, and acting chief financial officer for Link2Gov Corporation. From 1993 to 1999, Ms. Vaughn was a consultant at McKinsey & Company, specializing in consumer and retail sectors. She also held corporate finance positions at Goldman Sachs & Co., Wasserstein Perella & Co. Inc., and Drexel Burnham Lambert.
Scott E. Becker, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Mr. Becker was named Genesco's senior vice president, general counsel, and corporate secretary in October 2019. Before joining Genesco, he spent from 2006 to 2019 at Nissan Group of North America and Latin America, where he held various roles with increasing responsibility, including senior vice president overseeing legal, government affairs, finance, strategy, and administration.
Parag D. Desai, Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Digital Officer
Mr. Desai was appointed Genesco's senior vice president, chief strategy and digital officer in April 2021, having previously served as senior vice president, strategy and shared services since December 2014. He brings several decades of experience in developing business strategies, including 14 years with McKinsey & Company, where he was a partner and a core member of the firm's global retail leadership team and consumer practice.
Andrew "Andy" I. Gray, Senior Vice President; Chief Executive Officer, Journeys Global Retail Group
Mr. Gray serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of the Journeys Global Retail Group.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlKey Risks to Genesco (GCO)
- Economic downturns and decreased consumer discretionary spending: As a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories, Genesco's performance is highly sensitive to overall economic conditions, consumer confidence, and levels of discretionary income. A decline in any of these factors could lead to reduced demand for its products, impacting sales and profitability across all segments.
- Failure to anticipate and respond to rapidly changing fashion trends and consumer preferences: Especially for its youth-oriented brands within the Journeys Group and Schuh Group, Genesco operates in a dynamic industry where consumer tastes and fashion trends can shift quickly. A failure to effectively identify, source, and market products that align with evolving preferences could result in excess inventory, increased markdowns, and a loss of market share and brand relevance.
- Intense competition in the retail and wholesale footwear and apparel markets: Genesco faces significant competition from a wide array of entities, including other multi-brand retailers, specialty stores, department stores, online-only retailers, and direct-to-consumer brands. This competitive landscape can put pressure on pricing, margins, and market share, requiring continuous investment in product innovation, marketing, and customer experience to remain competitive.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy by major footwear and apparel brands poses a clear emerging threat. Brands that Genesco either sells in its retail segments (Journeys, Schuh, Johnston & Murphy) or competes with its licensed brands are increasingly investing in and prioritizing their own retail stores and e-commerce channels. This strategic shift by suppliers to control their distribution and customer relationships could lead to reduced product availability for multi-brand retailers like Genesco, increased direct competition from its own suppliers, and a fundamental shift in consumer purchasing habits away from multi-brand retail environments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Genesco Inc. (GCO) operates in the footwear, apparel, and accessories markets across various regions. The addressable market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:
Footwear Market
- Global: The global footwear market size was valued at approximately USD 423.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 618.39 billion by 2033, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.3% from 2025 to 2033.
- United States: The U.S. footwear market size was USD 95.1 billion in 2024, and it is projected to grow by 3.7% annually from 2025 to 2032, reaching USD 125.7 billion by 2032.
- United Kingdom: The UK footwear market generated a revenue of USD 15.03 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 18.88 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025 to 2030.
- Canada: The Canada footwear market generated a revenue of USD 8.58 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 10.91 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.1% from 2025 to 2030.
Apparel Market
- United States (Men's Apparel): The U.S. menswear market is expected to generate approximately USD 110 billion in revenue in 2024. The market is anticipated to reach USD 154.5 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 192.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 2.40% from 2026-2034.
Accessories Market
- United States: The U.S. fashion accessories market generated a revenue of approximately USD 222.07 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately USD 342.99 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlGenesco (GCO) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Continued Momentum and Strategic Initiatives within the Journeys Group: The Journeys brand is expected to be a primary growth engine, with projections for continued positive comparable sales. This growth is driven by strategic initiatives such as the expansion of "Journeys 4.0" store concepts, which have consistently outperformed, and a focus on becoming a "multi-brand, multi-category offering to inspire the journey from one you to the next" through product elevation and diversification strategies.
- Digital and Omnichannel Acceleration: Genesco is investing in its digital and omnichannel platforms to enhance customer reach and improve the overall shopping experience. This focus has already led to significant growth in e-commerce sales, which represented 25% of total retail sales for fiscal year 2026 and 31% in Q4 FY26, and is a key component of connecting with new customers.
- Strategic Brand Portfolio Optimization and New Licensing Partnerships: The company is actively refining its brand portfolio and pursuing new licensing ventures to diversify revenue streams. A notable example is the new multiyear partnership with Wrangler for footwear, which follows the exit of Levi's from the footwear business. This strategy, part of Genesco's "Footwear First Strategy," aims to leverage brand equity in new product categories and optimize its offerings.
- Growth in the Johnston & Murphy Group: The Johnston & Murphy Group has shown consistent sales improvements and is projected to deliver positive comparable sales. While the company is optimizing its overall store footprint, Johnston & Murphy is expected to add new stores, contributing to its segment growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Genesco's board of directors authorized a $50 million increase to its existing $200 million share repurchase authorization in June 2023. Since September 2019, the company repurchased approximately 3.9 million shares at a total cost of about $189.5 million.
- As of early Fiscal 2026, the company repurchased approximately 600,000 shares for $12.6 million.
- As of January 31, 2026, Genesco had $29.8 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026 were primarily directed towards retail stores, including establishing 84 Journeys 4.0 stores and opening four new Johnston & Murphy stores.
- For Fiscal 2026, projected capital expenditures were $51 million, with expectations of $52 million for Fiscal 2027.
- Planned capital allocation for Fiscal 2027 is focused on remodels and digital initiatives.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Genesco Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Genesco Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GCO.
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| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,597 |
| Op Inc LTM | 54 |
| FCF LTM | 81 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 76 |
| CFO LTM | 125 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -21.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -88.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journeys Group | 1,364 | 1,482 | 1,576 | 1,228 | 1,460 |
| Schuh Group | 480 | 432 | 424 | 306 | 374 |
| Johnston & Murphy Group | 339 | 315 | 253 | 153 | 301 |
| Genesco Brands Group | 141 | 159 | 169 | ||
| Corporate & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Intercompany sales elimination | -3 | ||||
| Licensed Brands | 100 | 62 | |||
| Total | 2,325 | 2,385 | 2,422 | 1,787 | 2,197 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schuh Group | 21 | 18 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
| Johnston & Murphy Group | 16 | 14 | 7 | -48 | 18 |
| Journeys Group | 11 | 94 | 165 | 77 | 115 |
| Genesco Brands Group | -0 | -1 | 7 | ||
| Corporate & Other | -62 | -32 | -43 | -119 | -53 |
| Licensed Brands | -5 | -1 | |||
| Total | -13 | 93 | 156 | -107 | 83 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journeys Group | 659 | 732 | 679 | 768 | 908 |
| Corporate & Other | 245 | 257 | 480 | 370 | 148 |
| Schuh Group | 200 | 199 | 207 | 233 | 363 |
| Johnston & Murphy Group | 165 | 194 | 128 | 159 | 198 |
| Genesco Brands Group | 60 | 75 | 68 | ||
| Licensed Brands | 58 | 63 | |||
| Total | 1,330 | 1,456 | 1,562 | 1,587 | 1,680 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $28.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.90 | $27.98 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.3% | 69.2% |
| Downside Capture | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| Upside Capture | 202.49 | 131.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 35.9% | 43.4% |
GCO Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.06 | 1.77 | 1.79 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.70 |
| Up Beta | 6.58 | 4.26 | 3.91 | 4.18 | 2.08 | 1.78 |
| Down Beta | 0.47 | 0.69 | 1.94 | 2.17 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Up Capture | 178% | 211% | 215% | 85% | 171% | 251% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 30 | 59 | 121 | 359 |
| Down Capture | 23% | 148% | 75% | 87% | 115% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 33 | 67 | 130 | 390 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCO | 35.1% | 70.9% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.1% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 52.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 46.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 18.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 28.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCO | -9.4% | 61.1% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 45.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 42.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 15.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 35.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCO | -8.2% | 65.6% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 21.9% | 0.50 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 41.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 39.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/6/2026 | 1.6% | -3.9% | |
| 12/4/2025 | -30.8% | -32.5% | -22.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | -5.9% | 2.1% | -8.3% |
| 6/4/2025 | -0.3% | 3.2% | -3.3% |
| 3/7/2025 | -16.3% | -35.2% | -44.4% |
| 12/6/2024 | 9.5% | 15.4% | 12.1% |
| 9/6/2024 | -12.0% | -17.9% | -4.4% |
| 5/31/2024 | 4.4% | 0.7% | -10.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| # Negative | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.9% | -15.4% | -8.0% |
| Max Positive | 17.6% | 15.4% | 12.1% |
| Max Negative | -32.2% | -63.3% | -44.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 3/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Comparable Sales Growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | -50.0% | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 |
| 2027 Total Sales Growth | -1.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% | -125.0% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 |
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 121.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.95 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 12/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Sales Growth | 2.0% | -42.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Comparable Sales Growth | 3.0% | -33.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 0.95 | -36.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.5 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 34.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fund, 1 Investments, Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6062025 | 23.26 | 25,000 | 581,500 | 24,954,491 | Form | |
| 2 | Fund, 1 Investments, Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 3312025 | 20.73 | 12,000 | 248,759 | 22,758,321 | Form | |
| 3 | Sandfort, Gregory A | Sandfort Investments III, LLC | Buy | 3202025 | 22.92 | 10,974 | 251,524 | 613,202 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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