Home Depot (HD)
Market Price (7/30/2026): $337.66 | Market Cap: $335.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Home Improvement Retail
Home Depot (HD)
Market Price (7/30/2026): $337.66Market Cap: $335.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Home Improvement Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.7% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% | Key risksHD key risks include [1] a high sensitivity to the housing market slowdown, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% |
| Key risksHD key risks include [1] a high sensitivity to the housing market slowdown, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 7/20/2026
Home Depot (HD) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Home Depot's Fiscal Q1 2026 results met or slightly exceeded analyst expectations, and the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, providing a sense of stability.
The Home Depot, whose fiscal Q1 2026 ended on May 1, 2026, reported sales of $41.8 billion, an increase of 4.8% from the same period in fiscal 2025. Comparable sales for the quarter grew 0.6% globally and 0.4% in the U.S.. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.43, slightly surpassing analyst estimates of $3.41. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales growth ranging from flat to 2.0%. This performance, aligning with market expectations and maintaining a consistent outlook, contributed to the stock's largely stable trend.
2. While the Pro segment and digital sales showed strength, overall net earnings declined, and profit pressures were noted, creating a mixed financial picture.
During fiscal Q1 2026, Home Depot's Pro segment posted positive comparable sales, outperforming the DIY sector, and online comparable sales achieved double-digit year-over-year growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, net earnings for fiscal Q1 2026 were $3.3 billion, a decrease from $3.4 billion in the prior year's first quarter, and adjusted diluted EPS declined by 3.7% year-over-year. The company also experienced profit pressures from lower gross and operating margins and increased inventories, with larger discretionary projects remaining under pressure. This combination of strong performance in some areas and headwinds in others contributed to the stock's horizontal movement rather than a significant breakout.
Show more
Home Depot (HD) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Home Depot's Fiscal Q1 2026 results met or slightly exceeded analyst expectations, and the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, providing a sense of stability.
The Home Depot, whose fiscal Q1 2026 ended on May 1, 2026, reported sales of $41.8 billion, an increase of 4.8% from the same period in fiscal 2025. Comparable sales for the quarter grew 0.6% globally and 0.4% in the U.S.. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.43, slightly surpassing analyst estimates of $3.41. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales growth ranging from flat to 2.0%. This performance, aligning with market expectations and maintaining a consistent outlook, contributed to the stock's largely stable trend.
2. While the Pro segment and digital sales showed strength, overall net earnings declined, and profit pressures were noted, creating a mixed financial picture.
During fiscal Q1 2026, Home Depot's Pro segment posted positive comparable sales, outperforming the DIY sector, and online comparable sales achieved double-digit year-over-year growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, net earnings for fiscal Q1 2026 were $3.3 billion, a decrease from $3.4 billion in the prior year's first quarter, and adjusted diluted EPS declined by 3.7% year-over-year. The company also experienced profit pressures from lower gross and operating margins and increased inventories, with larger discretionary projects remaining under pressure. This combination of strong performance in some areas and headwinds in others contributed to the stock's horizontal movement rather than a significant breakout.
Show more
Updated on 7/20/2026
Home Depot (HD) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Home Depot's Fiscal Q1 2026 results met or slightly exceeded analyst expectations, and the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, providing a sense of stability.
The Home Depot, whose fiscal Q1 2026 ended on May 1, 2026, reported sales of $41.8 billion, an increase of 4.8% from the same period in fiscal 2025. Comparable sales for the quarter grew 0.6% globally and 0.4% in the U.S.. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.43, slightly surpassing analyst estimates of $3.41. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales growth ranging from flat to 2.0%. This performance, aligning with market expectations and maintaining a consistent outlook, contributed to the stock's largely stable trend.
2. While the Pro segment and digital sales showed strength, overall net earnings declined, and profit pressures were noted, creating a mixed financial picture.
During fiscal Q1 2026, Home Depot's Pro segment posted positive comparable sales, outperforming the DIY sector, and online comparable sales achieved double-digit year-over-year growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, net earnings for fiscal Q1 2026 were $3.3 billion, a decrease from $3.4 billion in the prior year's first quarter, and adjusted diluted EPS declined by 3.7% year-over-year. The company also experienced profit pressures from lower gross and operating margins and increased inventories, with larger discretionary projects remaining under pressure. This combination of strong performance in some areas and headwinds in others contributed to the stock's horizontal movement rather than a significant breakout.
3. A resilient housing market, coupled with the "rate lock" effect, steered homeowner spending towards remodeling rather than new home purchases.
Despite broader consumer uncertainty, the housing market exhibited resilience, with U.S. home sales reaching a five-month high in May 2026, increasing 3.2% to an annualized rate of 4.17 million. Pending home sales also saw year-over-year growth across all major U.S. regions in June 2026. However, elevated mortgage rates, predicted to remain above 6% through 2026, fostered a "rate-lock economy" where homeowners with lower existing rates opted to remodel their current homes instead of moving. This trend supported consistent demand for home improvement projects, particularly small and moderate-sized renovations, providing a steady base for Home Depot's business but limiting growth from new housing construction.
4. Persistent consumer uncertainty and affordability pressures led to selective spending, particularly in discretionary retail categories.
Consumer confidence faced challenges due to ongoing uncertainty and housing affordability pressures, as highlighted by Home Depot's CEO regarding fiscal Q1 2026 performance. While overall U.S. consumer spending showed an upward trend in Q2 2026, with inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increasing by 0.3% in May, consumers became more selective with their discretionary purchases. Many households delayed larger purchases, prioritizing essentials and seeking value, which tempered the growth potential for the home improvement sector and contributed to the stock's generally flat trajectory.
Show less
Home Depot (HD) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Home Depot's Fiscal Q1 2026 results met or slightly exceeded analyst expectations, and the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, providing a sense of stability.
The Home Depot, whose fiscal Q1 2026 ended on May 1, 2026, reported sales of $41.8 billion, an increase of 4.8% from the same period in fiscal 2025. Comparable sales for the quarter grew 0.6% globally and 0.4% in the U.S.. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.43, slightly surpassing analyst estimates of $3.41. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales growth ranging from flat to 2.0%. This performance, aligning with market expectations and maintaining a consistent outlook, contributed to the stock's largely stable trend.
2. While the Pro segment and digital sales showed strength, overall net earnings declined, and profit pressures were noted, creating a mixed financial picture.
During fiscal Q1 2026, Home Depot's Pro segment posted positive comparable sales, outperforming the DIY sector, and online comparable sales achieved double-digit year-over-year growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, net earnings for fiscal Q1 2026 were $3.3 billion, a decrease from $3.4 billion in the prior year's first quarter, and adjusted diluted EPS declined by 3.7% year-over-year. The company also experienced profit pressures from lower gross and operating margins and increased inventories, with larger discretionary projects remaining under pressure. This combination of strong performance in some areas and headwinds in others contributed to the stock's horizontal movement rather than a significant breakout.
3. A resilient housing market, coupled with the "rate lock" effect, steered homeowner spending towards remodeling rather than new home purchases.
Despite broader consumer uncertainty, the housing market exhibited resilience, with U.S. home sales reaching a five-month high in May 2026, increasing 3.2% to an annualized rate of 4.17 million. Pending home sales also saw year-over-year growth across all major U.S. regions in June 2026. However, elevated mortgage rates, predicted to remain above 6% through 2026, fostered a "rate-lock economy" where homeowners with lower existing rates opted to remodel their current homes instead of moving. This trend supported consistent demand for home improvement projects, particularly small and moderate-sized renovations, providing a steady base for Home Depot's business but limiting growth from new housing construction.
4. Persistent consumer uncertainty and affordability pressures led to selective spending, particularly in discretionary retail categories.
Consumer confidence faced challenges due to ongoing uncertainty and housing affordability pressures, as highlighted by Home Depot's CEO regarding fiscal Q1 2026 performance. While overall U.S. consumer spending showed an upward trend in Q2 2026, with inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increasing by 0.3% in May, consumers became more selective with their discretionary purchases. Many households delayed larger purchases, prioritizing essentials and seeking value, which tempered the growth potential for the home improvement sector and contributed to the stock's generally flat trajectory.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.6% change in HD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 326.44 | 338.27 | 3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 164,683 | 166,592 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.6% | 8.4% | -2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.0 | 24.0 | 4.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 996 | 994 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | 3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.2% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.4% | 63.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.3% change in HD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 339.27 | 338.27 | -0.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 166,189 | 166,592 | 0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 8.4% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.1 | 24.0 | 3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 993 | 994 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | -0.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 41.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.3% | 64.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in HD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 357.14 | 338.27 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 162,952 | 166,592 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.0% | 8.4% | -6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.2 | 24.0 | -0.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 992 | 994 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 35.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.3% | 57.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.5% change in HD stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 287.90 | 338.27 | 17.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 155,752 | 166,592 | 7.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.8% | 8.4% | -21.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.4 | 24.0 | 38.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,010 | 994 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | 17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.4% | 48.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 34.4% | 59.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HD Return | 60% | -22% | 13% | 15% | -9% | 2% | 49% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -23% | 39% | 43% | -4% | 1% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HD Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 40% | 69% | 65% | 44% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HD Max Drawdown | -12% | -35% | -17% | -18% | -22% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -36% | -15% | -13% | -24% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, LOW, BBBY. See HD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Home Depot's stock fell -14.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | HD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Home Depot's stock fell -14.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Home Depot (HD)
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) operates as a premier home improvement retailer, serving a vast customer base primarily through its extensive network of physical stores across the United States. Complementing its brick-and-mortar presence, the company also leverages multiple online platforms, including homedepot.com, blinds.com for custom window coverings, and thecompanystore.com for textiles and décor, to reach a broad audience.
Home Depot offers a comprehensive selection of products, ranging from building materials, general home improvement items, and lawn and garden supplies to various décor products. Beyond retail sales, the company provides valuable services such as installation for major projects like flooring, cabinets, countertops, HVAC systems, and windows, as well as tool and equipment rental. Its primary customers include individual homeowners embarking on DIY projects, alongside a significant segment of professional renovators, remodelers, general contractors, maintenance professionals, property managers, and specialty tradesmen like electricians and plumbers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Home Depot:
- Walmart for home improvement.
- Amazon for home building and repair supplies.
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- Building Materials & Home Improvement Products: Sells a wide range of materials and products for construction, renovation, and general home improvement projects.
- Lawn & Garden Products: Offers various items for landscaping, gardening, and outdoor living.
- Décor & Furnishings: Provides decorative products for interiors, including textiles and custom window coverings.
- Facilities MRO Products: Supplies products for the maintenance, repair, and operations of facilities.
- Installation Services: Provides professional installation for components such as flooring, cabinets, countertops, HVAC systems, and windows.
- Tool & Equipment Rental: Offers tools and equipment for rent to both homeowners and professionals.
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Home Depot (symbol: HD) serves a diverse customer base that includes both individual consumers and various types of professionals and businesses. Given the nature of its professional customers, who are typically individual tradesmen or small businesses rather than large public corporations, the most appropriate way to identify its major customers is through categories.
Here are the major categories of customers that Home Depot serves:
- Homeowners: These are individual consumers who purchase products for do-it-yourself (DIY) home improvement projects, routine maintenance, repairs, and decorative purposes for their personal residences.
- Professional Renovators & Remodelers and General Contractors: This category includes businesses and individuals involved in larger-scale home improvement projects, property renovation, remodeling, and new construction. They purchase building materials, tools, and supplies for their contractual work.
- Maintenance Professionals, Property Managers, and Specialty Tradesmen: This segment encompasses a wide range of professionals such as handymen, building service contractors, property managers, electricians, plumbers, and painters. They acquire materials, tools, and equipment for facilities maintenance, repair operations (MRO), and specialized trade services.
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- Masco Corporation (MAS)
- Techtronic Industries Co. Ltd. (669.HK)
- Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)
- Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK)
- Owens Corning (OC)
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The Home Depot's management team comprises experienced leaders with extensive backgrounds in retail and various strategic functions.
Ted Decker
Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer
Ted Decker became the Chair, President, and CEO of The Home Depot in March 2022, after serving as President and Chief Operating Officer from October 2020. He joined the company in 2000 as director of business valuation and has held several strategic positions, including senior director of business valuation, vice president, senior vice president of strategic business development, senior vice president of retail finance, and chief merchant and executive vice president of merchandising. Before joining The Home Depot, Decker worked in business development, strategic planning, and finance roles at Kimberly-Clark Corp. and Scott Paper Co., and held corporate finance, lending, and credit positions at PNC Bank. He has international experience, having lived and worked in England and Australia.
Richard McPhail
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Richard McPhail has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Home Depot since September 2019, having joined the company in 2005. His roles within Home Depot have included senior positions in strategic planning, financial planning, business development, real estate, and international financial management. Prior to his tenure at Home Depot, McPhail was the executive vice president of corporate finance with Marconi Corporation plc in London, England, where he led business development efforts in Europe and North America. He also held positions with Wachovia Securities and Arthur Andersen.
Ann-Marie Campbell
Senior Executive Vice President, U.S. Stores and Operations, The Home Depot Canada, The Home Depot Mexico, and Outside Sales and Service
Ann-Marie Campbell began her career with The Home Depot in 1985 as a part-time cashier in South Florida. She has steadily advanced through numerous roles, including store manager, district manager, regional vice president, vice president of operations, vice president of merchandising and special orders, vice president of retail marketing and sales for Home Depot Direct, vice president of vendor services, and president of the Southern Division, before ascending to her current senior executive vice president role in January 2016. She is responsible for overseeing more than 2,300 stores and over 400,000 associates across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Marc Brown
CEO, HD Supply
Marc Brown serves as the CEO of HD Supply, which is a key component of The Home Depot's strategy to cater to Pro customers in the maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) industry. He joined The Home Depot in 1998 and has held various functional support and operational roles within the company. These include human resources manager, store manager, field install manager, district manager, senior director of Pro sales, regional vice president for the Southeast Region, and senior vice president of retail operations.
Teresa Wynn Roseborough
Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Teresa Wynn Roseborough is the Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for The Home Depot. She is responsible for the company's legal affairs and corporate governance. Before joining The Home Depot in 2011, she held significant legal positions, including Deputy Assistant Attorney General for the U.S. Department of Justice and corporate counsel for MetLife, Inc. She also served as a law clerk to Justice John Paul Stevens of the U.S. Supreme Court.
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The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by its sensitivity to economic conditions, intense competition within the retail sector, and potential disruptions to its global supply chain.
The most significant risk to Home Depot's business is its **reliance on the stability of the housing and home improvement markets, which are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions**. Economic downturns, elevated interest rates, inflation, and low housing turnover can directly impact consumer confidence and discretionary spending on large home improvement projects and other related purchases. This sensitivity has been explicitly linked to recent sluggish sales and declining profits for the company. Executives have noted that consumer uncertainty and pressures in housing disproportionately affect demand for home improvement products and services.
Secondly, Home Depot operates in an **intensely competitive and fragmented retail environment**. The company faces strong competition from other large home improvement retailers like Lowe's, as well as local and regional hardware stores, specialized suppliers, and e-commerce giants such as Amazon. This competitive landscape can exert pressure on pricing, impact demand for products and services, and potentially lead to a decrease in market share.
Finally, **disruptions in Home Depot's supply chain and potential labor shortages** pose a considerable risk. The company's ability to receive and distribute merchandise in a timely manner can be adversely affected by various factors, including geopolitical events, pandemics, and challenges within its logistics network. Labor shortages, both within Home Depot's operations and among its suppliers, can also impair the flow and availability of products, leading to increased costs and potentially damaging its reputation if customer demand cannot be met.
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The increasing adoption of modular construction and pre-fabricated building components. This trend could reduce the demand for individual building materials and tools typically purchased from Home Depot by both professional contractors and DIY customers, as more of the construction and renovation process shifts to off-site manufacturing and assembly.
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The Home Depot (HD) operates in several significant addressable markets, primarily within the United States. The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be approximately $1 trillion, a figure that increased by about $50 billion following its acquisition of SRS Distribution.
Key addressable markets for Home Depot's main products and services include:
- U.S. Home Improvement Market: This market, which encompasses building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as installation services, was valued at USD 534.57 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 549.27 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 682.40 billion by 2033. Another estimate placed the U.S. residential remodeling market size at USD 527.36 billion in 2023, with a projected growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030.
- U.S. Professional (Pro) Market: Home Depot specifically targets professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, and maintenance professionals. The company estimated that the addressable pro market in the United States is worth more than $450 billion annually.
- U.S. Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) Market: This market, which includes products for facilities maintenance, repair, and operations, was valued at USD 93.17 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 102.86 billion by 2031. The U.S. accounted for 87.10% of the North America MRO market in 2025.
- U.S. Tool and Equipment Rental Market: The market size for tool and equipment rental in the U.S. was $5.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $5.7 billion in 2025. Separately, the U.S. construction equipment rental market is projected to reach USD 17.82 billion by 2026. The overall equipment rental market in North America is projected to grow to nearly $82.6 billion in 2025.
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The Home Depot (HD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and anticipated market shifts:
- Deepening Penetration with Professional (Pro) Customers: Home Depot is heavily investing in its "Pro ecosystem" to capture a larger share of the professional contractor market. This includes expanding Pro-tailored product assortments, offering specialized services, developing digital tools for order management and job site delivery, and enhancing distribution capabilities through Pro hubs and flatbed distribution centers. The company aims to provide seamless experiences for Pros, who already account for approximately 50% of its revenue.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Recent and planned acquisitions are bolstering Home Depot's position in the professional space. The 2024 acquisition of SRS Distribution and the 2025 purchase of GMS are significant moves designed to expand the company's total addressable market within specialty trades like roofing, pool, landscaping, and building products, adding distribution locations and increasing sales to professional customers.
- Enhancing the Interconnected Retail Experience: Home Depot continues to invest in its omnichannel strategy, blending its physical stores with robust digital platforms. This involves improving e-commerce functionality, mobile applications, and in-store technologies, as well as optimizing fulfillment options such as buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) and curbside pickup. The introduction of generative AI tools like "Magic Apron" in 2025 further enhances the digital customer experience by providing project advice and product information.
- Supply Chain Optimization and New Store Growth: The company is expanding its supply chain infrastructure, particularly with new distribution centers and Market Delivery Operations (MDOs) to improve the speed and reliability of deliveries for both parcel and big-and-bulky items. Additionally, Home Depot plans to open approximately 15 new stores in fiscal year 2026, contributing to its overall sales growth.
- Anticipated Housing Market Recovery: Home Depot's revenue growth projections for fiscal year 2026 (approximately 2.5% to 4.5% total sales growth) are cautiously optimistic and are largely contingent on a "thaw" and recovery in the housing market. Stabilizing mortgage rates and an increase in existing home sales are expected to drive demand for home improvement projects and larger discretionary renovations, leading to higher ticket sales.
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Share Repurchases
- The Home Depot authorized a new $15 billion share repurchase program effective August 15, 2023, replacing its previous authorization.
- In fiscal 2024, the company returned $0.6 billion to shareholders through share repurchases before pausing the program in March 2024, in anticipation of the SRS acquisition.
- Management anticipates resuming share repurchases once the company achieves an excess cash position, projected for the first half of 2027.
Share Issuance
- The company reported proceeds from sales of common stock of $314 million in fiscal 2025 and $395 million in fiscal 2024.
- During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, 436 deferred stock units were issued under the Home Depot, Inc. Nonemployee Directors' Deferred Stock Compensation Plan.
Outbound Investments
- In fiscal 2024, Home Depot acquired SRS Distribution Inc., a leading residential specialty trade distribution company, for $18.25 billion, aimed at accelerating growth with professional customers.
- In September 2025, Home Depot completed the acquisition of GMS Inc. through its SRS Distribution subsidiary for approximately $5.5 billion, including net debt, to further enhance its offerings for residential and commercial professional contractors.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 totaled approximately $3.7 billion.
- The company's capital expenditures have shown an upward trend, increasing annually from $2.6 billion in fiscal 2021 to $3.7 billion in fiscal 2025.
- For fiscal 2026, Home Depot plans capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of total sales, with a primary focus on strengthening its competitive position, delivering an enhanced customer experience, and opening approximately 15 new stores.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 221.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 384.3 |
| Rev LTM | 230,090 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,982 |
| FCF LTM | 8,212 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,682 |
| CFO LTM | 16,516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 384.3 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.4 |
| P/E | 25.4 |
| P/CFO | 17.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Segment | 151,966 | 153,108 | 152,669 | ||
| Other | 12,717 | 6,406 | 0 | ||
| Single Segment | 157,403 | 151,157 | |||
| Total | 164,683 | 159,514 | 152,669 | 157,403 | 151,157 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Segment | 20,574 | 21,313 | |
| Other | 316 | 213 | |
| HD Supply | 800 | ||
| Retail | 9,024 | ||
| Total | 20,890 | 21,526 | 9,824 |
| $ Mil | 2007 |
|---|---|
| Retail | 42,094 |
| HD Supply | 10,021 |
| Total | 52,115 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $338.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 336.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/22/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $329.15 | $345.74 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.8% | -2.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.9% | 25.3% |
| Downside Capture | 35.66 | 61.88 |
| Upside Capture | 56.82 | 41.08 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.9% | 34.6% |
HD Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 0.87 | 1.44 | 1.68 | 1.55 | 1.38 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | 1.61 | 1.15 | 0.79 | 1.10 | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| Up Capture | 56% | 20% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 43% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 34 | 65 | 122 | 377 |
| Down Capture | -74% | -37% | 5% | 46% | 61% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 29 | 60 | 130 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | -8.0% | 25.3% | -0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -0.7% | 19.3% | -0.16 | 56.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 12.8% | 0.86 | 35.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 28.1% | 0.68 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 31.5% | 19.7% | 1.27 | -38.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.9% | 14.0% | 0.82 | 51.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.1% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 1.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 3.3% | 24.5% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.1% | 24.0% | 0.18 | 63.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.1% | 0.55 | 58.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 60.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.7% | 53.3% | 0.46 | 18.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 12.1% | 25.0% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.8% | 22.1% | 0.49 | 70.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 67.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 62.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.7% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/19/2026 | 0.9% | 3.6% | 10.0% |
| 2/24/2026 | 2.0% | -1.6% | -11.6% |
| 11/18/2025 | -6.0% | -6.0% | -0.2% |
| 8/19/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.6% | -2.4% | -8.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.8% | 1.9% | -5.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.3% | 0.5% | 3.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.4% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -2.3% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 10.2% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.9% | -11.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/19/2026 | 0.9% | 3.6% | 10.0% |
| 2/24/2026 | 2.0% | -1.6% | -11.6% |
| 11/18/2025 | -6.0% | -6.0% | -0.2% |
| 8/19/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.6% | -2.4% | -8.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.8% | 1.9% | -5.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.3% | 0.5% | 3.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% |
| 5/14/2024 | -0.1% | -0.9% | 1.6% |
| 2/20/2024 | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
| 11/14/2023 | 5.4% | 7.0% | 20.0% |
| 8/15/2023 | 0.7% | -1.8% | -0.6% |
| 5/16/2023 | -2.2% | 0.7% | 4.6% |
| 2/21/2023 | -7.1% | -6.9% | -8.3% |
| 11/15/2022 | 1.6% | 3.2% | 9.3% |
| 8/16/2022 | 4.1% | -0.8% | -11.6% |
| 5/17/2022 | 1.7% | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | -8.9% | -8.9% | -4.4% |
| 11/16/2021 | 5.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% |
| 8/17/2021 | -4.3% | -2.2% | 0.0% |
| 5/18/2021 | -1.0% | -1.6% | -4.9% |
| 2/23/2021 | -3.1% | -5.2% | 5.8% |
| 11/17/2020 | -2.5% | -2.9% | -3.0% |
| 8/18/2020 | -1.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.4% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -2.3% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 10.2% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.9% | -11.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 08/24/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 05/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 11/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 08/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 05/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 11/26/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 08/27/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total sales growth | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Comparable sales growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 New stores | 15 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 15 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross margin | 33.1% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 33.1% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating margin | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted operating margin | 12.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.9% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 24.3% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.3% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net interest expense | 2.30 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.30 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted earnings-per-share growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted diluted earnings-per-share growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 0.03 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Sales Growth | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 3.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Comparable Sales Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | ||||
| 2026 New Stores | 15 | ||||||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 33.1% | -0.1% | Lower New | Actual: 33.2% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | -0.1% | Lower New | Actual: 12.6% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 12.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | -0.1% | Lower New | Actual: 13.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 24.3% | -0.2% | Lower New | Actual: 24.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 2.30 Bil | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 2.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Diluted EPS Growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% | Higher New | Actual: -6.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 7.0% | Higher New | Actual: -5.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 0.03 | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 0.03 for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/18/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total Sales Growth | 3.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.8% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 GMS Incremental Sales | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2025 Gross Margin | 33.2% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 33.4% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Operating Margin | 12.6% | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Operating Margin | 13.0% | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.4% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Tax Rate | 24.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Net Interest Expense | 2.30 Bil | 4.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.20 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Diluted EPS Growth | -6.0% | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -3.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | -5.0% | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -2.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 0.03 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McPhail, Richard V | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 368.89 | 2,550 | 940,670 | 16,440,122 | Form |
| 2 | Deaton, John A | EVP - Supply Chain & Prod. Dev | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 369.00 | 1,793 | 661,617 | 5,213,603 | Form |
| 3 | Roseborough, Teresa Wynn | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 348.52 | 2,872 | 1,000,961 | 4,599,217 | Form |
| 4 | Brown, Angie | EVP & CIO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 357.63 | 1,946 | 695,948 | 1,409,503 | Form |
| 5 | Campbell, Ann Marie | Senior EVP | by Charitable Remainder Trust | Sell | 12122025 | 358.26 | 145 | 51,948 | 4,413,763 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McPhail, Richard V | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 368.89 | 2,550 | 940,670 | 16,440,122 | Form |
| 2 | Deaton, John A | EVP - Supply Chain & Prod. Dev | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 369.00 | 1,793 | 661,617 | 5,213,603 | Form |
| 3 | Roseborough, Teresa Wynn | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 348.52 | 2,872 | 1,000,961 | 4,599,217 | Form |
| 4 | Brown, Angie | EVP & CIO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 357.63 | 1,946 | 695,948 | 1,409,503 | Form |
| 5 | Campbell, Ann Marie | Senior EVP | by Charitable Remainder Trust | Sell | 12122025 | 358.26 | 145 | 51,948 | 4,413,763 | Form |
| 6 | Bastek, William D | EVP, Merchandising | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 423.12 | 2,303 | 974,445 | 10,254,432 | Form |
| 7 | Roseborough, Teresa Wynn | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 413.23 | 5,483 | 2,265,767 | 6,635,178 | Form |
| 8 | Bastek, William D | EVP, Merchandising | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 410.23 | 3,783 | 1,551,900 | 9,942,039 | Form |
| 9 | Decker, Edward P | Chair, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 397.22 | 32,897 | 13,067,210 | 48,628,969 | Form |
| 10 | McPhail, Richard V | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 403.66 | 3,369 | 1,359,931 | 18,348,390 | Form |
| 11 | Padilla, Hector A | EVP - US Sales and Operations | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 404.17 | 1,585 | 640,609 | 5,629,506 | Form |
| 12 | Brown, Angie | EVP & CIO | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 404.07 | 1,000 | 404,070 | 1,550,292 | Form |
| 13 | Deaton, John A | EVP - Supply Chain & Prod. Dev | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 369.99 | 8,892 | 3,289,951 | 5,361,032 | Form |
| 14 | Roseborough, Teresa Wynn | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 5292025 | 369.28 | 5,406 | 1,996,328 | 6,413,122 | Form |
| 15 | Siddiqui, Fahim | EVP and CIO | Direct | Sell | 5272025 | 367.14 | 2,600 | 954,564 | 2,919,130 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 30, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $55.7 Mil | 9.0% | 8 | New | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $107.8 Mil | 7.1% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $164.4 Mil | 6.5% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $248.7 Mil | 5.2% | 22 | TRIM -14.7% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $52.7 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | ADD +19.3% | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $134.1 Mil | 3.2% | 30 | ADD +8.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $12.9 Mil | 2.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.5 Mil | 2.6% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $68.2 Mil | 2.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $101.1 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | TRIM -12.9% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $29.2 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $10.0 Mil | 1.2% | 38 | TRIM -60.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $62.0 Mil | 0.7% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Range Rock Capital, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 9.2% | 26 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $20.8 Mil | 4.2% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $10.7 Mil | 3.4% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Napean Trading & Investment Co (Singapore) PTE Ltd | $6.0 Mil | 1.2% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $10.0 Mil | 1.2% | 38 | TRIM -60.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $248.7 Mil | 5.2% | 22 | TRIM -14.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $101.1 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | TRIM -12.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provident Trust Co | $248.7 Mil | 5.2% | 22 | TRIM -14.7% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $164.4 Mil | 6.5% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $134.1 Mil | 3.2% | 30 | ADD +8.7% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $107.8 Mil | 7.1% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $101.1 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | TRIM -12.9% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $68.2 Mil | 2.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $55.7 Mil | 9.0% | 8 | New | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $52.7 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | ADD +19.3% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $29.2 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $12.9 Mil | 2.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.5 Mil | 2.6% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $10.0 Mil | 1.2% | 38 | TRIM -60.1% | 13F |
HD Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on a strategic pivot into the $700 billion professional market. Management has a record of meeting its forecasts and reaffirmed full-year guidance, suggesting the plan is on track. However, the strategy's success hinges on integrating large acquisitions and managing the near-term margin pressure from this business mix shift.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Retail & Distribution(Number of Customer Transactions) x (Average Ticket Value) Operating leverage on fixed costs and successful execution of cross-selling synergies between the high-margin retail and lower-margin distribution businesses.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests Home Depot is successfully pivoting to capture the professional market, offsetting stagnant core retail.
Mechanism:
Acquisitions (SRS, GMS) are building a new growth engine in a $700 billion market, targeting a $400 million cross-sell run rate this year to drive overall profit growth.
Supporting Evidence:
- The Pro segment posted positive comps and outperformed DIY in Q1 2026.
- Full-year 2026 guidance for total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% was reaffirmed.
- Online sales, a key part of the ecosystem, grew 10.5% in the latest quarter.
- The company is expanding its Pro footprint, planning 40 to 50 new SRS locations in fiscal 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The shift into lower-margin distribution could permanently impair profitability if synergies don't materialize, especially amid weak consumer demand.
Mechanism:
A cut to full-year EPS guidance would confirm that integration costs and margin pressures are overwhelming growth.
Supporting Evidence:
- Gross margin fell to 33.0% from 33.8% year-over-year, primarily due to the GMS acquisition.
- Comparable customer transactions declined 1.3% in Q1, showing core retail traffic is weak.
- TTM operating margin has compressed to 12.4% from 13.2% a year ago.
- Operating expenses grew 5.2% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth of 2.2%.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable Sales Growth | +0.6% for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 - Stagnant | Comparable sales have been slightly positive for three consecutive quarters, showing a very slow but stable trend just above zero. Management noted that underlying demand was relatively similar to the prior fiscal year. |
| Online Sales Growth | +10.5% for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 - Stable | Online sales have grown at a stable double-digit rate for four consecutive quarters, which management attributes to ongoing investments in interconnected platforms and faster delivery speeds. |
| Comparable Customer Transactions | -1.3% (Q1 FY2026) | Represents customer traffic and frequency, a key driver of sales volume. |
| Comparable Average Ticket | +2.2% (Q1 FY2026) | Indicates the average price paid per transaction, reflecting both price changes and product mix. |
Core Investment Debate
Pro Growth Engine vs. Margin Erosion
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the M&A-led push into the $700 billion Pro market creates a new growth S-curve, and cross-sell synergies will ultimately drive higher absolute profits despite lower gross margin rates.
CORE TENSION
Can the Pro segment's growth, which outperformed DIY in Q1, offset the structural gross margin dilution, which fell 75 basis points due to the GMS acquisition?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bulls, as management reaffirmed full-year guidance, suggesting the financial plan accounting for this tension remains intact, which the market rewarded with a +4.0% stock move.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the company is overpaying for lower-quality, cyclical revenue, and the resulting margin dilution will permanently reset valuation multiples lower, a risk amplified by weak core retail traffic.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
July 2026 | Credit Facilities Expire Watch: A and a back-up credit facility are scheduled to expire. |
8/20/2026 | Persistent Housing Market Weakness Watch: Walmart's (WMT) earnings commentary on general merchandise sales and big-ticket spending trends for any signs of further consumer pullback. |
9/24/2026 | Costco Earnings Report Watch: Peer Costco Wholesale (COST) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/26/2026 | Bed Bath Beyond Earnings Watch: Peer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/17/2026 | Margin Pressure From Pro Strategy Watch: Reported gross and operating margins versus guidance, and management commentary on the profitability of the SRS/GMS segments. |
11/18/2026 | Peer Read-Through On Consumer Demand Watch: Lowe's commentary on DIY versus Pro demand, big-ticket project trends, and any change in its full-year outlook. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-08 | Expanded Military Delivery Program Details: Expanded its partnership with Military Exchanges to include delivery to APO, FPO, and DPO addresses, making products available to overseas military bases. | -1.9% $345.21 -> $338.73 |
2026-05-19 | Acquired Mingledorff's Details: The company completed the acquisition of Mingledorff's, a leading wholesale distributor of HVAC equipment, to penetrate an addressable market of approximately $100 billion. | +3.6% $297.58 -> $308.27 |
2026-05-19 | Reported Q1 FY2026 Results Details: Reported Q1 sales of $41.8 billion, up 4.8% YoY, with comparable sales up 0.6%. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance. | +3.6% $297.58 -> $308.27 |
2026-04-17 | Acquired SIMPL Automation Details: The company acquired SIMPL Automation, which uses advanced engineering and AI, to strengthen its same-day and next-day fulfillment strategy. | +4.1% $334.64 -> $348.38 |
2026-03-28 | Received Analyst Rating Downgrade Details: An article highlighted a rating downgrade, advising investors to "Stay Away From Home Depot Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds" like weak consumer sentiment and a soft housing market. | -1.5% $325.98 -> $321.09 |
2026-02-24 | Reported Q4 FY2025 Results Details: The company beat Wall Street projections for the fourth quarter, reporting adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share. The stock reaction was muted. | -0.4% $371.70 -> $370.30 |
2026-01-26 | Launched AI Tool For Pros Details: The company introduced Material List Builder AI, a new capability to help professional customers create project material lists from voice prompts, text, or existing documents. | -0.9% $378.38 -> $375.02 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: HD trades at roughly 29% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market), around the 84th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
LOW - Lowe's Companies
Pure-Play PeerLowe's offers a more direct exposure to the core U.S. home improvement consumer without the integration risk and margin-profile changes of Home Depot's large-scale distribution acquisitions.
Core Thesis: An investment in Lowe's is a bet on a focused operator in home improvement retail gaining share in a challenging but stabilizing consumer environment.
AMZN - a business partner
Structural CompetitorAmazon provides exposure to a much broader and faster-growing e-commerce market, with diversified revenue streams from cloud computing and advertising that are absent in specialty retail.
Core Thesis: An investment in Amazon is a bet on continued dominance in e-commerce and high-margin cloud services, representing a secular growth alternative to cyclical retail.
How Is The Market Pricing HD?
A mature retail giant pivoting into a lower-margin, high-volume distribution consolidator to capture the entire professional contractor wallet.
Home Depot is leveraging its dominant retail position to aggressively expand into the fragmented professional distribution market through major acquisitions like SRS and GMS. This strategy aims to create a comprehensive 'ecosystem' for the Pro customer, driving top-line growth and capturing a larger share of a ~$700 billion addressable market. The core challenge is managing the structural gross margin dilution from this mix shift while executing on cross-selling synergies to grow overall profitability.
What will confirm the thesis
Sustained mid-single-digit or higher organic growth in the 'Other' segment, concrete evidence of accelerating cross-sell revenue between retail and distribution, and stabilization or improvement in consolidated operating margins.
What will damage the thesis
Failure to integrate acquisitions, stalling growth in the distribution segment, or an inability to prevent the lower-margin mix shift from eroding overall net earnings growth.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term fluctuations in DIY project spending or quarterly comparable sales driven by weather.
Repricing Catalyst
Evidence that the Pro ecosystem strategy is generating significant, high-margin cross-sell revenue, proving the strategic pivot is accretive to the bottom line, not just the top line.
What HD Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2027
Primary Segment
$149.5B TTM (92% of Total) · 13% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, and décor to both DIY/DIFM consumers and Professional (Pro) customers through its retail stores and online platforms in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and professional contractors pay for products and services for home maintenance, repair, and renovation projects. They choose this segment for its brand recognition, product authority, customer service, scale, and interconnected physical and digital shopping experience.
Transactional unit sales at retail prices.
Competition
Lowe's Companies (LOW) is a named peer. The market is highly fragmented with competitors including hardware stores, lumber yards, specialty stores, and online retailers.
The company's moat is its scale, premier real estate portfolio, brand recognition, extensive supply chain network, and deep relationships with Pro customers.
Other
$13.7B TTM (8% of Total) · 2% MarginWhat It Is
A specialty trade distribution business (primarily through its SRS subsidiary) selling roofing, building products, interior construction products (drywall, ceilings), landscape supplies, and pool supplies to professional contractors like roofers, landscapers, and pool contractors.
Who Pays & How
Specialty trade professionals pay for bulk and specialized materials for residential and commercial projects. This segment serves their need for a dedicated distributor with specific product expertise and job-site delivery capabilities.
Transactional unit sales at wholesale/distribution prices.
Competition
Competes with national and local wholesale supply distributors in a highly fragmented market.
The moat is being built on the scale of its distribution platform, a professional sales force, and its integration into the broader Home Depot ecosystem to create a unique value proposition for Pros.
HD Evolution: Price Return by Era
Through Fiscal 2023 · Single-Segment Retail Dominance
+13%
The company operated as a single, integrated home improvement retailer, focusing on serving both DIY and Pro customers primarily through its vast network of physical stores and growing e-commerce presence.
Fiscal 2024 - Present · Pro Ecosystem and Distribution Expansion
+6%
Marked by the acquisition of SRS in fiscal 2024, the company began a strategic pivot to build a comprehensive ecosystem for the professional customer. This era involves acquiring specialty distributors (like GMS and Mingledorff's) to create a new, fast-growing 'Other' segment focused on capturing the complex project needs of specialty trade Pros.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is showing early stress, with SMA alignment beginning to break down. Relative to SPY: Mildly ahead of the market but 'relative strength' trend is softening; monitor for rotation out. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is supportive. The reaction and drift are both positive, and the market is accepting the narrative.
① Structure
-1
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
0 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Potential Bottoming · -
▾
2
Momentum
Pausing
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Neutral Relative Strength
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Neutral / Mixed
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Flat
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Reward
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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Home Depot — Investor Video Playlist
Products & Services
How-To Workshops - How To Prep Your Lawn For Fall | The Home Depot
Products & Services
Stay Cool and Save More This Summer ❄️| The Home Depot
Products & Services
How-To Workshops - How to Prepare and Install a Shed Kit | The Home Depot
Products & Services
Grilling 101 – Find the Right Grill for You | The Home Depot
Products & Services
How-To Workshops - How To Plan For Your Bathroom Project | The Home Depot
Products & Services
We Built The Backyard Garden Of Our Dreams - Full Tour | From Scratch with @epicgardening Ep. 8
Products & Services
How to Find Products with the Home Depot App | The Home Depot
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Home Improvement Retail Resources |
| HBS Dealer |
| Hardware Retailing |
| ProSales |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/29/2026