Tearsheet

Hilton Worldwide (HLT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $293.12 | Market Cap: $68.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Hilton Worldwide (HLT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $293.12
Market Cap: $68.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.2x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  Key risks
HLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.2x
6 Key risks
HLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HLT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Below are the key points explaining the 6.2% stock movement for Hilton Worldwide (HLT) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Market Performance and All-Time Highs: Hilton Worldwide's stock reached an all-time high of $287.53 USD on December 17, 2025, indicating robust investor confidence and strong performance within the broader hospitality market. The stock had gained 7.5% over the prior month.

2. Positive Analyst Ratings and Raised Price Targets: Several financial analysts issued favorable ratings and increased their price targets for HLT in late 2025. For example, Goldman Sachs set a price target of $317.00 on December 15, 2025, anticipating an 11.62% upside, while Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a $332.00 price target in November 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HLT Return0%40%-19%45%36%16%161%
Peers Return-10%35%-13%28%19%-6%50%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HLT Win Rate58%50%50%67%75%67% 
Peers Win Rate45%58%40%57%58%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HLT Max Drawdown-49%-11%-30%-1%-2%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-8%-24%-4%-9%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHLTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven496 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven166 days120 days

Compare to MAR, H, WH, MTN, CHH


In The Past

Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Better Bets than Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hilton Worldwide

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Mkt Price293.00310.07164.2880.4995.2118.57129.75
Mkt Cap68.684.315.76.14.412.814.2
Rev LTM11,73525,9256,9141,4361,5965,9396,426
Op Inc LTM2,5804,137449593468808700
FCF LTM2,2961,927107294124671482
FCF 3Y Avg1,9162,323397268169824610
CFO LTM2,5082,7013013492681,298824
CFO 3Y Avg2,1222,9145903103011,4221,006

Growth & Margins

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Rev Chg LTM6.7%4.7%3.1%3.4%2.8%6.5%4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.1%10.6%9.1%-2.5%6.7%8.6%8.9%
Rev Chg Q8.8%3.7%9.6%-3.5%4.5%0.9%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%0.9%2.3%-1.0%1.2%0.2%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM22.0%16.0%6.5%41.3%29.3%13.6%19.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.0%16.3%5.8%38.4%29.4%14.0%19.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%0.6%0.0%0.8%-0.9%-0.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM21.4%10.4%4.4%24.3%16.8%21.9%19.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.4%11.8%8.8%22.0%19.2%25.6%19.3%
FCF/Rev LTM19.6%7.4%1.5%20.5%7.8%11.3%9.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.5%9.4%5.9%19.0%10.8%14.8%12.8%

Valuation

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Mkt Cap68.684.315.76.14.412.814.2
P/S5.22.72.04.33.12.02.9
P/EBIT23.416.944.210.68.611.614.2
P/E36.527.1-154.018.112.915.917.0
P/CFO24.226.245.017.518.49.021.3
Total Yield2.9%4.7%-0.2%7.6%7.8%11.6%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.1%1.0%0.4%2.1%0.0%5.3%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%3.5%3.1%4.4%2.9%7.0%3.6%
D/E0.20.20.50.40.40.50.4
Net D/E0.20.20.40.40.40.40.4

Returns

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
1M Rtn10.1%9.6%10.3%15.6%3.4%7.8%9.9%
3M Rtn10.0%18.6%16.6%-3.2%-14.1%7.2%8.6%
6M Rtn18.5%21.0%24.2%2.0%-22.5%21.0%19.7%
12M Rtn17.3%8.2%4.7%-20.5%-33.8%4.8%4.8%
3Y Rtn125.7%107.8%73.4%21.1%-14.5%28.0%50.7%
1M Excs Rtn9.4%8.9%9.5%14.9%2.7%7.0%9.1%
3M Excs Rtn8.7%16.4%13.8%-3.9%-14.5%5.4%7.1%
6M Excs Rtn6.1%8.6%11.8%-10.3%-34.9%8.6%7.3%
12M Excs Rtn5.1%-2.0%-7.3%-31.6%-45.5%-5.4%-6.4%
3Y Excs Rtn44.7%27.4%-2.3%-49.8%-87.2%-48.2%-25.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Other revenues from managed and franchised properties5,8275,037   
Management and franchise3,0552,6191,8091,1382,315
Ownership1,2441,0765984211,422
Other revenues1781027973101
Intersegment fees elimination-26-23-10-3-43
Amortization of contract acquisition costs-43-38-32-29-29
Direct reimbursements from managed and franchised properties  1,5031,3753,110
Indirect reimbursements from managed and franchised properties  1,8411,3322,576
Total10,2358,7735,7884,3079,452


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,564,219
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.9%
Average Daily Volume1,619,736
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.05
Basic Shares Quantity234,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/20253.4%-1.9%0.5%
7/23/2025-2.6%-0.3%-1.4%
4/29/20252.2%7.8%13.2%
2/6/20254.9%6.0%-4.1%
10/23/2024-1.9%0.4%5.1%
8/7/2024-1.7%-0.9%4.4%
4/24/20243.9%0.1%3.8%
2/7/20240.7%-2.3%5.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131213
# Negative101110
Median Positive2.4%3.0%6.2%
Median Negative-1.9%-2.3%-4.2%
Max Positive4.9%15.0%23.2%
Max Negative-4.4%-14.2%-27.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023207202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021