Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $278.84 | Market Cap: $65.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $278.84Market Cap: $65.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HLT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Hilton Worldwide (HLT) experienced a 1.6% stock movement, influenced by several key corporate developments.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat: Hilton Worldwide reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 22, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.11, compared to the analyst estimate of $2.08, and reported revenue of $3.12 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $3.04 billion. This positive earnings surprise contributed to a pre-market stock uptick of approximately 3% following the announcement.
2. Significant Capital Return to Shareholders: During the third quarter of 2025, Hilton demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value by repurchasing 2.8 million shares of its common stock for a total of $757 million. The total capital returned to shareholders for the quarter, including dividends, amounted to $792 million, with a year-to-date total of $2.67 billion through October 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLT Return | 0% | 40% | -19% | 45% | 36% | 14% | 157% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 34% | -17% | 21% | 18% | -14% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 57% | 37% | 55% | 57% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLT Max Drawdown | -49% | -11% | -30% | -1% | -2% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -8% | -30% | -5% | -9% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, MTN, CHH. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 496 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 120 days |
Compare to MAR, H, WH, MTN, CHH
In The Past
Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Hilton Worldwide Earnings Notes | |||
| Would You Still Hold Hilton Worldwide Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Hilton Worldwide Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Hilton Worldwide vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Hilton Worldwide vs Booking: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Hilton Worldwide Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than HLT Stock: Pay Less Than Hilton Worldwide To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than HLT Stock: Pay Less Than Hilton Worldwide To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than HLT Stock: Pay Less Than Hilton Worldwide To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| HLT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Now is not the time to buy Hilton Worldwide stock | August 20th, 2025 | ||
| HGV Stock Up 18% after 8-Day Win Streak | July 15th, 2025 | ||
| How Hilton Hotels Performed In 2017 And The Outlook For 2018 | February 26th, 2018 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hilton Worldwide
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other revenues from managed and franchised properties | 5,827 | 5,037 | |||
| Management and franchise | 3,055 | 2,619 | 1,809 | 1,138 | 2,315 |
| Ownership | 1,244 | 1,076 | 598 | 421 | 1,422 |
| Other revenues | 178 | 102 | 79 | 73 | 101 |
| Intersegment fees elimination | -26 | -23 | -10 | -3 | -43 |
| Amortization of contract acquisition costs | -43 | -38 | -32 | -29 | -29 |
| Direct reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,503 | 1,375 | 3,110 | ||
| Indirect reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,841 | 1,332 | 2,576 | ||
| Total | 10,235 | 8,773 | 5,788 | 4,307 | 9,452 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |