Mohawk Industries (MHK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $115.0 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Home Furnishings
Mohawk Industries (MHK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $115.0Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Home Furnishings
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Green Building Certification, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Green Building Certification, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MHK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Mohawk Industries (MHK) experienced a decline of 13.2% in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Weak Fourth Quarter 2025 Profit Forecast: On October 23, 2025, Mohawk Industries reported its third-quarter 2025 results and, more significantly, issued a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter profit forecast. The company projected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $1.90 and $2.00 for Q4 2025, with the midpoint of $1.95 falling short of the analyst consensus estimate of $2.67. This outlook suggested ongoing softness in market volumes and higher input costs.
2. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss on Profitability: While Mohawk's third-quarter 2025 net sales of $2.76 billion aligned with or slightly beat analyst expectations, its adjusted EPS of $2.67 was a decline from $2.90 in the same period of 2024 and slightly missed the consensus estimate of $2.68. The reported GAAP net earnings were $109 million, or $1.75 per share. This indicated pressures on profitability despite stable revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MHK Return | 3% | 29% | -44% | 1% | 15% | -4% | -16% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 41% | -38% | 16% | 10% | 12% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MHK Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 62% | 38% | 48% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MHK Max Drawdown | -57% | -3% | -52% | -25% | -6% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -65% | -6% | -49% | -24% | -23% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TILE, LEG, LOVE, SGI, MHK. See MHK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MHK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 503.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1422 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TILE, LEG, LOVE, SGI, MHK
In The Past
Mohawk Industries's stock fell -66.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -66.7% loss requires a 200.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MHK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 02292020 | MHK | Mohawk Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.5% | 44.4% | -51.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 02292020 | MHK | Mohawk Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.5% | 44.4% | -51.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mohawk Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Ceramic | 4,988 | 4,841 | 5,161 | 5,250 | 5,420 |
| Flooring Rest of the World (ROW) | 4,052 | 4,276 | 4,362 | 4,194 | 3,925 |
| Flooring North America (NA) | 3,910 | 4,299 | 4,126 | 3,595 | 3,824 |
| Corporate and intersegment eliminations | 610 | 704 | 576 | 1,288 | 218 |
| Total | 13,560 | 14,120 | 14,225 | 14,328 | 13,387 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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