MarineMax (HZO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.67 | Market Cap: $509.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialty Stores
MarineMax (HZO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.67Market Cap: $509.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialty Stores
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 208% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 208% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HZO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock movement for MarineMax (HZO) for the period between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, cannot be factually determined as these dates are in the future. However, based on the most recent available information and general factors impacting the company, here are potential key points that could lead to a stock decline of approximately 10.2%:
1. Weak Retail Environment and Soft New Boat Sales: MarineMax has experienced a challenging retail environment, with new boat sales and pricing remaining under pressure. While the company's fiscal 2025 fourth quarter saw a 2.3% increase in same-store sales, this was driven by used boat revenue, finance and insurance, parts and service income, and superyacht services, offsetting lower new boat sales. Continued softness in the industry-wide retail environment for new boats could negatively impact revenue and profitability.
2. Disappointing Earnings or Guidance: Although MarineMax's Q4 2025 earnings reported on November 13, 2025, showed a reported and adjusted net loss per share of $0.04, which beat analyst estimates, the fiscal year 2025 full-year summary showed a reported net loss per share of $1.43. If future earnings reports or guidance for fiscal year 2026 (expected adjusted EPS range of $0.40 to $0.95) fall short of analyst expectations or indicate further deterioration in market conditions, it could lead to a significant stock drop.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HZO Return | 110% | 69% | -47% | 25% | -26% | -19% | 41% |
| Peers Return | 11% | 102% | -8% | 28% | -10% | 19% | 180% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HZO Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 72% | 50% | 57% | 47% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HZO Max Drawdown | -53% | -1% | -53% | -15% | -37% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -2% | -40% | -21% | -33% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DKS, FIVE, SIG, SBH, ASO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HZO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 365 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2079.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2156 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DKS, FIVE, SIG, SBH, ASO
In The Past
MarineMax's stock fell -60.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -60.1% loss requires a 150.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HZO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MarineMax
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,102 |
| Op Inc LTM | 419 |
| FCF LTM | 292 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 260 |
| CFO LTM | 516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 503 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 8.5 |
| P/E | 10.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1232025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1252024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1312023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11182022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2012022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11192021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |