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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARMK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Aramark's (ARMK) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Aramark's Q4 2025 Earnings Missed Forecasts.** The company reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on November 17, 2025, with an adjusted EPS of $0.57, falling short of the anticipated $0.64. Additionally, revenue reached $5.05 billion, which was below the expected $5.16 billion. This resulted in a pre-market stock decline of 7.91% following the announcement.

**2. Higher Incentive-Based Compensation Impacted Earnings.** An increase in incentive-based compensation negatively affected Aramark's adjusted EPS by $0.07 in the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to the overall earnings miss.

**3. Delays in New Contract Starts Pushed Revenue to Fiscal Year 2026.** Aramark experienced timing delays in the initiation of new contracts, particularly within its healthcare and corrections segments. This shifted anticipated revenue into the upcoming fiscal year 2026, thereby impacting the reported Q4 2025 results.

**4. Analysts Lowered Price Targets Following Financial Results.** Several investment firms adjusted their outlook for Aramark's stock after the Q4 2025 earnings report. Morgan Stanley, for instance, lowered its price target from $44.00 to $43.00, while Robert W. Baird reduced its target from $47.00 to $46.00. Stifel also adjusted its price target from $49.00 to $44.00.

**5. Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Guidance Trailed Wall Street Consensus.** Although Aramark's revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 was largely in line with expectations, its adjusted EPS guidance of $2.18 to $2.28 per share was slightly below the Wall Street consensus of $2.29 per share. This cautious outlook, combined with the quarterly miss, further impacted investor sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARMK Return-10%-3%14%-5%34%0%27%
Peers Return22%57%0%-10%16%10%121%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARMK Win Rate50%42%50%50%75%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%55%50%53%58%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARMK Max Drawdown-70%-17%-20%-19%-1%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-6%-20%-27%-17%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CTAS, SYY, UNF, UNFI, GPC. See ARMK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARMKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven180 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-72.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven261.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1547 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven388 days120 days

Compare to CTAS, SYY, UNF, UNFI, GPC


In The Past

Aramark's stock fell -31.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -31.0% loss requires a 45.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Aramark (ARMK)

Better Bets than Aramark (ARMK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARMK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
ARMK_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020ARMKAramarkDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
33.5%92.1%-14.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
ARMK_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020ARMKAramarkDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
33.5%92.1%-14.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aramark

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARMKCTASSYYUNFUNFIGPCMedian
NameAramark Cintas Sysco UniFirst United N.Genuine . 
Mkt Price37.60184.7173.36177.3833.32129.47101.41
Mkt Cap9.974.535.13.32.018.013.9
Rev LTM17,87510,55782,0352,43231,78424,06120,968
Op Inc LTM7932,4173,0811841051,4151,104
FCF LTM2811,7021,599143239134260
FCF 3Y Avg1271,5851,924107149631390
CFO LTM7672,1202,543297470666716
CFO 3Y Avg5301,9792,7652694491,140835

Growth & Margins

ARMKCTASSYYUNFUNFIGPCMedian
NameAramark Cintas Sysco UniFirst United N.Genuine . 
Rev Chg LTM4.0%8.2%2.9%0.2%2.6%3.3%3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.0%9.1%4.8%6.8%3.2%4.1%5.4%
Rev Chg Q5.7%8.7%3.2%-4.0%-5.6%4.9%4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%2.1%0.8%-1.0%-1.4%1.2%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM4.4%22.9%3.8%7.6%0.3%5.9%5.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.8%21.8%3.9%7.0%0.4%6.7%5.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.2%0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.3%20.1%3.1%12.2%1.5%2.8%3.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%20.2%3.5%11.3%1.5%4.9%4.2%
FCF/Rev LTM1.6%16.1%1.9%5.9%0.8%0.6%1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%16.2%2.4%4.5%0.5%2.7%2.6%

Valuation

ARMKCTASSYYUNFUNFIGPCMedian
NameAramark Cintas Sysco UniFirst United N.Genuine . 
Mkt Cap9.974.535.13.32.018.013.9
P/S0.67.80.51.30.10.80.7
P/EBIT13.134.213.116.7-151.716.114.6
P/E30.444.721.720.7-19.323.822.8
P/CFO14.339.015.510.34.829.014.9
Total Yield4.3%2.6%7.2%5.6%-5.2%7.1%5.0%
Dividend Yield1.0%0.4%2.6%0.8%0.0%2.9%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.2%2.3%5.2%3.2%12.5%3.2%3.2%
D/E0.60.00.40.01.50.30.4
Net D/E0.60.00.3-0.01.50.30.3

Returns

ARMKCTASSYYUNFUNFIGPCMedian
NameAramark Cintas Sysco UniFirst United N.Genuine . 
1M Rtn0.0%1.7%0.6%13.9%-10.8%4.7%1.2%
3M Rtn-3.5%-9.9%-8.9%1.2%18.5%-4.3%-3.9%
6M Rtn-6.5%-18.4%2.0%-5.3%20.3%4.1%-1.7%
12M Rtn-5.7%-16.4%-5.2%-10.5%32.8%4.9%-5.4%
3Y Rtn27.4%64.0%-6.8%-6.9%-28.7%-25.3%-6.8%
1M Excs Rtn0.1%1.7%0.7%13.9%-10.8%4.8%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-9.3%-15.8%-15.9%-6.2%9.9%-13.0%-11.1%
6M Excs Rtn-21.2%-33.1%-12.7%-20.0%5.6%-10.6%-16.4%
12M Excs Rtn-20.2%-31.1%-15.8%-24.6%20.6%-8.1%-18.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-41.0%-5.8%-80.2%-77.7%-101.9%-96.0%-78.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,869,332
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-9.2%
Average Daily Volume2,340,663
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.79
Basic Shares Quantity262,660,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/27/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/28/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/27/2024
93020241119202410-K 9/27/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/28/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/29/2024
12312023206202410-Q 12/29/2023
93020231121202310-K 9/29/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/30/2022
93020221122202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 7/1/2022
3312022510202210-Q 4/1/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211123202110-K 10/1/2021