Aramark (ARMK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.61 | Market Cap: $9.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Distributors
Aramark (ARMK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.61Market Cap: $9.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARMK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Aramark's (ARMK) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Aramark's Q4 2025 Earnings Missed Forecasts.** The company reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on November 17, 2025, with an adjusted EPS of $0.57, falling short of the anticipated $0.64. Additionally, revenue reached $5.05 billion, which was below the expected $5.16 billion. This resulted in a pre-market stock decline of 7.91% following the announcement.
**2. Higher Incentive-Based Compensation Impacted Earnings.** An increase in incentive-based compensation negatively affected Aramark's adjusted EPS by $0.07 in the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to the overall earnings miss.
**3. Delays in New Contract Starts Pushed Revenue to Fiscal Year 2026.** Aramark experienced timing delays in the initiation of new contracts, particularly within its healthcare and corrections segments. This shifted anticipated revenue into the upcoming fiscal year 2026, thereby impacting the reported Q4 2025 results.
**4. Analysts Lowered Price Targets Following Financial Results.** Several investment firms adjusted their outlook for Aramark's stock after the Q4 2025 earnings report. Morgan Stanley, for instance, lowered its price target from $44.00 to $43.00, while Robert W. Baird reduced its target from $47.00 to $46.00. Stifel also adjusted its price target from $49.00 to $44.00.
**5. Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Guidance Trailed Wall Street Consensus.** Although Aramark's revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 was largely in line with expectations, its adjusted EPS guidance of $2.18 to $2.28 per share was slightly below the Wall Street consensus of $2.29 per share. This cautious outlook, combined with the quarterly miss, further impacted investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARMK Return | -10% | -3% | 14% | -5% | 34% | 0% | 27% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 57% | 0% | -10% | 16% | 10% | 121% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARMK Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 55% | 50% | 53% | 58% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARMK Max Drawdown | -70% | -17% | -20% | -19% | -1% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -6% | -20% | -27% | -17% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CTAS, SYY, UNF, UNFI, GPC. See ARMK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARMK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -72.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 261.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1547 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 388 days | 120 days |
Compare to CTAS, SYY, UNF, UNFI, GPC
In The Past
Aramark's stock fell -31.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -31.0% loss requires a 45.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Aramark Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Aramark vs UnitedHealth: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Aramark vs General Motors: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than ARMK Stock: Pay Less Than Aramark To Get More From D, OKE | |||
| Better Bet Than ARMK Stock: Pay Less Than Aramark To Get More From CCL, DECK | |||
| ARMK Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Aramark Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 56.0% in 2024 and 16.8% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Aramark (ARMK) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aramark (ARMK) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aramark (ARMK) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Will Aramark Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| Aramark Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Momentum Continue? | August 1st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARMK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | ARMK | Aramark | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 33.5% | 92.1% | -14.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | ARMK | Aramark | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 33.5% | 92.1% | -14.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aramark
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 101.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.9 |
| Rev LTM | 20,968 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,104 |
| FCF LTM | 260 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 390 |
| CFO LTM | 716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 835 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.9 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.6 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -78.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-K 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 10-K 10/1/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |