PulteGroup (PHM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $128.91 | Market Cap: $25.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
PulteGroup (PHM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $128.91Market Cap: $25.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PHM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the available information for PulteGroup (PHM) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, the stock movement of -1.1% can be attributed to several factors:
1. PulteGroup's Q3 2025 Earnings Report Indicated Year-Over-Year Declines in Key Metrics. PulteGroup reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 21, 2025, revealing a mixed performance despite beating analyst expectations for earnings per share. The company's net income decreased by 16% to $586 million, and home sale revenues saw a 2% decline to $4.2 billion compared to the prior year. Additionally, the number of homes closed decreased by 5% year-over-year to 7,529 units.
2. Contracted Gross Margins Due to Higher Incentives and Increased Lot Costs. The company's gross margin significantly contracted to 26.2% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 260 basis points from 28.8% in Q3 2024. This was largely attributed to higher incentives, which rose by 190 basis points over the prior year, and increased lot costs.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PHM Return | 13% | 34% | -19% | 129% | 6% | 17% | 246% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 51% | -20% | 62% | 10% | 4% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PHM Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 73% | 42% | 62% | 65% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PHM Max Drawdown | -54% | -5% | -36% | 0% | -3% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | -38% | -2% | -6% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, NVR, J, TOL. See PHM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PHM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 393.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3349 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DHI, LEN, NVR, J, TOL
In The Past
PulteGroup's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PHM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | PHM | PulteGroup | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 56.4% | 99.6% | -2.4% |
| 03312022 | PHM | PulteGroup | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | 41.0% | -13.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | PHM | PulteGroup | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 56.4% | 99.6% | -2.4% |
| 03312022 | PHM | PulteGroup | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | 41.0% | -13.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PulteGroup
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | OShaughnessy Robert | Exec. VP | 8152025 | Sell | 128.03 | 21,927 | 2,807,248 | 8,227,527 | Form |
| 1 | O'Meara Brien P. | Vice President & Controller | 8152025 | Sell | 127.97 | 814 | 104,170 | 1,351,139 | Form |
| 2 | O'Meara Brien P. | Vice President & Controller | 2132025 | Sell | 106.40 | 3,500 | 372,386 | 1,209,934 | Form |
| 3 | Sheldon Todd N | EVP, Gen Counsel, Corp Sec'y | 2132025 | Sell | 106.50 | 15,191 | 1,617,842 | 7,961,727 | Form |
| 4 | ANDERSON BRIAN P | 2112025 | Sell | 106.45 | 2,500 | 266,122 | 6,026,823 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |