Tearsheet

PulteGroup (PHM)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $126.21 | Market Cap: $24.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

PulteGroup (PHM)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $126.21
Market Cap: $24.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 6.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 6.0%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PHM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Movement from 8/31/2025 to 12/14/2025** The -4.1% movement in PulteGroup's stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025, can be attributed primarily to the company's third-quarter 2025 financial results and prevailing challenging housing market conditions. **1. Decreased Net Income and Earnings Per Share (EPS).** PulteGroup reported a net income of $586 million, or $2.96 per share, for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, marking a 16% decrease from $698 million, or $3.35 per share, in the same period of the previous year. **2. Reduced Home Sale Revenues and Closings.** The company experienced a 2% decline in home sale revenues, totaling $4.2 billion in Q3 2025, compared to $4.3 billion in the prior year. Additionally, the number of homes closed decreased by 5% year-over-year to 7,529 units. **3. Contraction in Home Sale Gross Margin.** PulteGroup's home sale gross margin contracted to 26.2% in the third quarter of 2025, down from 28.8% in Q3 2024. This decrease was influenced by higher incentives offered and increased lot costs. **4. Weakness in Net New Orders and Backlog.** Net new orders for the quarter decreased by 6% year-over-year, totaling 6,638 homes. The value of the company's quarter-end backlog also saw a 19% decline to $6.2 billion, representing an 18% reduction in units compared to the third quarter of 2024. **5. Challenging Housing Market Conditions and Investor Concerns.** PulteGroup's Q3 2025 performance occurred amidst ongoing difficulties in the broader housing market, characterized by weaker consumer confidence and affordability issues stemming from high interest rates and inflation. Investors responded cautiously to the mixed earnings report, with the stock experiencing a negative reaction in pre-market trading, reflecting broader concerns about the housing sector's outlook.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PHM Return13%34%-19%129%6%18%249%
Peers Return21%52%-21%75%8%2%182%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PHM Win Rate67%67%42%58%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate68%77%38%63%62%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PHM Max Drawdown-54%-5%-36%0%-3%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-5%-42%-0%-6%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, NVR, TOL, TMHC. See PHM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPHMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven305 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven164.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven151 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven393.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3349 days1480 days

Compare to DHI, LEN, NVR, J, TOL


In The Past

PulteGroup's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PulteGroup (PHM)

Better Bets than PulteGroup (PHM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PHM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
PHM_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022PHMPulteGroupDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
56.4%99.6%-2.4%
PHM_3312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312022PHMPulteGroupDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.3%41.0%-13.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
PHM_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022PHMPulteGroupDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
56.4%99.6%-2.4%
PHM_3312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312022PHMPulteGroupDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.3%41.0%-13.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PulteGroup

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PHMDHILENNVRTOLTMHCMedian
NamePulteGro.D.R. Hor.Lennar NVR Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
Mkt Price126.43156.45119.377,517.81139.1562.60132.79
Mkt Cap24.846.330.521.613.76.223.2
Rev LTM17,62334,25034,76610,47610,8778,37814,250
Op Inc LTM3,3954,4243,4701,7821,7681,2272,589
FCF LTM1,5523,284-7131,2929185701,105
FCF 3Y Avg1,8753,1542,7831,4301,2015711,652
CFO LTM1,6683,421-5681,3199956091,157
CFO 3Y Avg1,9833,3052,9181,4571,2746121,720

Growth & Margins

PHMDHILENNVRTOLTMHCMedian
NamePulteGro.D.R. Hor.Lennar NVR Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
Rev Chg LTM1.8%-6.9%-4.7%3.4%3.3%7.0%2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.4%0.9%3.0%1.4%4.4%0.7%2.2%
Rev Chg Q-1.6%-3.2%-6.4%-4.5%8.0%-1.2%-2.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%-0.9%-1.7%-1.2%2.0%-0.3%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM19.3%12.9%10.0%17.0%16.3%14.6%15.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg20.6%15.4%13.6%18.4%17.5%14.9%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%-1.2%-1.5%-0.6%-0.4%-0.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%10.0%-1.6%12.6%9.1%7.3%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.6%9.4%8.4%14.4%11.9%7.6%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM8.8%9.6%-2.1%12.3%8.4%6.8%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%8.9%8.0%14.2%11.2%7.1%9.9%

Valuation

PHMDHILENNVRTOLTMHCMedian
NamePulteGro.D.R. Hor.Lennar NVR Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
Mkt Cap24.846.330.521.613.76.223.2
P/S1.51.40.92.21.00.81.2
P/EBIT7.611.39.312.26.45.38.4
P/E9.912.912.016.18.27.610.9
P/CFO15.613.5-56.717.511.310.712.4
Total Yield10.8%8.8%10.0%6.2%12.7%13.1%10.4%
Dividend Yield0.7%1.1%1.6%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.2%7.1%7.3%6.3%12.1%11.1%8.2%
D/E0.10.10.20.00.30.30.1
Net D/E0.00.10.1-0.00.20.30.1

Returns

PHMDHILENNVRTOLTMHCMedian
NamePulteGro.D.R. Hor.Lennar NVR Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
1M Rtn6.8%9.1%-1.5%3.6%5.5%4.7%5.1%
3M Rtn-7.8%-11.8%-12.7%-10.7%-2.8%-10.1%-10.4%
6M Rtn24.9%27.8%10.9%4.0%29.9%7.9%17.9%
12M Rtn7.6%5.6%-21.4%-12.5%4.8%-3.3%0.8%
3Y Rtn178.9%84.3%37.2%58.4%182.0%103.8%94.1%
1M Excs Rtn5.2%7.5%-3.5%3.5%3.0%3.7%3.6%
3M Excs Rtn-9.4%-12.0%-13.6%-12.4%-4.8%-12.1%-12.1%
6M Excs Rtn10.7%13.6%-3.4%-10.2%15.6%-6.4%3.6%
12M Excs Rtn-11.5%-12.3%-38.0%-28.3%-16.7%-21.4%-19.1%
3Y Excs Rtn117.2%13.2%-33.5%-14.4%115.8%32.4%22.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Homebuilding segment15,24713,92412,27011,51310,081
Financial Services8408721,082692634
Total16,08714,79713,35312,20510,716


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,225,580
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.3%
Average Daily Volume1,746,024
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.57
Basic Shares Quantity196,536,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/20250.0%-2.4%-7.9%
7/22/202511.5%7.5%20.0%
4/22/20258.4%10.0%8.8%
1/30/20254.9%-1.5%-8.6%
10/22/2024-7.2%-7.2%-10.9%
7/23/20240.0%5.8%-0.7%
4/23/20244.6%6.2%9.3%
1/30/2024-0.5%-1.6%0.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171515
# Negative799
Median Positive4.5%7.5%8.0%
Median Negative-4.3%-2.4%-5.0%
Max Positive11.5%25.8%35.8%
Max Negative-7.2%-7.3%-10.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251021202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025722202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024723202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022206202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021207202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0OShaughnessy RobertExec. VP8152025Sell128.0321,9272,807,2488,227,527Form
1O'Meara Brien P.Vice President & Controller8152025Sell127.97814104,1701,351,139Form
2O'Meara Brien P.Vice President & Controller2132025Sell106.403,500372,3861,209,934Form
3Sheldon Todd NEVP, Gen Counsel, Corp Sec'y2132025Sell106.5015,1911,617,8427,961,727Form
4ANDERSON BRIAN P 2112025Sell106.452,500266,1226,026,823Form