Gap (GAP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.21 | Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Gap (GAP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.21Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 7.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.0% | Key risksGAP key risks include [1] a continued failure to maintain brand relevance and adapt to shifting consumer preferences, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.0% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% |
| Key risksGAP key risks include [1] a continued failure to maintain brand relevance and adapt to shifting consumer preferences, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GAP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to provide an analysis of Gap Inc. (GAP) stock movement for the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, as this time frame is in the future. However, based on information available as of December 17, 2025, Gap Inc. (GAP) has seen recent positive analyst upgrades and stock performance.
1. Analyst Upgrades: Several firms, including Baird, Telsey Advisory, and Wells Fargo & Company, upgraded Gap Inc. (GAP) to "outperform" or "overweight" in mid-December 2025.
2. Price Target Increases: Concurrent with the upgrades, analysts raised their price targets for GAP stock, with some reaching as high as $33.00.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GAP Return | 16% | -11% | -33% | 97% | 16% | 18% | 87% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 24% | -20% | 75% | 28% | 18% | 211% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GAP Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GAP Max Drawdown | -68% | -20% | -53% | -32% | -11% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -6% | -49% | -19% | -8% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, BURL, ANF, AEO. See GAP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GAP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 389.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 239.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 634 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to URBN, ANF, AEO, LB, GES
In The Past
Gap's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 389.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Gap Earnings Notes | |||
| With Gap Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| How Does Gap Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than GAP Stock: Pay Less Than Gap To Get More From CALM | |||
| GAP Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Gap Market Price | Market Price | ||
| Gap (GAP) worth $8.3 Bil (up $1.3 Bil), more valuable than MarketAxess | Notification | ||
| Gap Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 24.8% in 2025 and ...% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Gap (GAP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Gap (GAP) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| AEO’s One-Day Rally Offers a Chance to Reevaluate GAP | August 27th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Gap’s Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | August 25th, 2025 | ||
| Big Move for AEO, but Do GAP’s Margins and Growth Give It the Edge? | August 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 12312016 | GAP | Gap | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | 56.1% | -3.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 12312016 | GAP | Gap | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | 56.1% | -3.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gap
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 136.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.5 |
| Rev LTM | 13,238 |
| Op Inc LTM | 966 |
| FCF LTM | 582 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 741 |
| CFO LTM | 1,030 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,159 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.5 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 14.4 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 105.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 25.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/20/2025 | 8.2% | 19.3% | |
| 8/28/2025 | 1.5% | 9.8% | -1.6% |
| 5/29/2025 | -20.2% | -22.8% | -22.0% |
| 3/6/2025 | 18.8% | 6.6% | -1.8% |
| 11/21/2024 | 12.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| 8/29/2024 | 1.6% | -5.0% | -4.5% |
| 5/30/2024 | 28.6% | 14.4% | 3.3% |
| 3/7/2024 | 8.2% | 19.0% | 21.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 13 | 8 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 16.8% | 14.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -11.7% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 30.6% | 38.0% | 53.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.1% | -32.0% | -26.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11252025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3182025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11262024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3192024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3142023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3152022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Donohue Elisabeth B | 11262025 | Sell | 27.11 | 3,000 | 81,332 | 27,110 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
