Tearsheet

Green Brick Partners (GRBK)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $64.0 | Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Green Brick Partners (GRBK)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $64.0
Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 5.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
  Key risks
GRBK key risks include [1] a disproportionate exposure to adverse economic conditions due to its geographic concentration in a few specific high-growth markets.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 5.7%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
6 Key risks
GRBK key risks include [1] a disproportionate exposure to adverse economic conditions due to its geographic concentration in a few specific high-growth markets.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GRBK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -8.2% movement in Green Brick Partners (GRBK) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025: 1. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Revised Outlooks.

In August 2025, an analyst downgraded Green Brick Partners from a "Strong Buy" to a "Hold," citing impacts on margins due to lower prices and higher incentives, and that the valuation exceeded its fair value. This was followed by another significant downgrade on October 10, 2025, when Alex Rygiel of Texas Capital Securities reduced his recommendation from "buy" to "hold" with a price target of $71 per share, leading to a 17% weekly tumble in the stock. Rygiel based his decision on revised estimates for Green Brick's 2025 performance and concerns over a disadvantageous geographic mix in what he perceived as weaker Texas markets.

2. Pressure on Homebuilding Gross Margins.

While Green Brick Partners maintained homebuilding gross margins above 30% for the tenth consecutive quarter in Q3 2025, these margins decreased by 160 basis points year-over-year as the company adjusted incentives and sales prices to align with market demand. This indicates a squeeze on profitability in a challenging market.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GRBK Return100%32%-20%114%9%16%469%
Peers Return22%50%-20%90%6%3%206%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GRBK Win Rate83%42%42%58%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate68%75%40%63%60%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GRBK Max Drawdown-49%-16%-42%0%-6%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-56%-5%-42%0%-6%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, TOL, TMHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGRBKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven230 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven396 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-97.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4432.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR


In The Past

Green Brick Partners's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Green Brick Partners (GRBK)

Better Bets than Green Brick Partners (GRBK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GRBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
GRBK_9302022_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield09302022GRBKGreen Brick PartnersDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
64.0%94.2%-7.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
GRBK_9302022_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield09302022GRBKGreen Brick PartnersDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
64.0%94.2%-7.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Green Brick Partners

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GRBKDHILENPHMTOLTMHCMedian
NameGreen Br.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
Mkt Price64.08147.18107.99119.74139.7959.79113.86
Mkt Cap2.843.627.623.513.55.918.5
Rev LTM2,11334,25034,76617,62310,9678,37814,295
Op Inc LTM4394,4243,4703,3951,7211,2272,558
FCF LTM1583,284-7131,5521,026570798
FCF 3Y Avg1393,1542,7831,8751,0525711,463
CFO LTM1623,421-5681,6681,112609861
CFO 3Y Avg1443,3052,9181,9831,1306121,557

Growth & Margins

GRBKDHILENPHMTOLTMHCMedian
NameGreen Br.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
Rev Chg LTM6.6%-6.9%-4.7%1.8%1.1%7.0%1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.1%0.9%3.0%5.4%2.3%0.7%2.7%
Rev Chg Q-4.7%-3.2%-6.4%-1.6%2.7%-1.2%-2.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%-0.9%-1.7%-0.4%0.8%-0.3%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM20.8%12.9%10.0%19.3%15.7%14.6%15.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg20.5%15.4%13.6%20.6%17.3%14.9%16.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-1.2%-1.5%-0.7%-0.6%-0.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM7.7%10.0%-1.6%9.5%10.1%7.3%8.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.7%9.4%8.4%11.6%10.7%7.6%8.9%
FCF/Rev LTM7.5%9.6%-2.1%8.8%9.4%6.8%8.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.4%8.9%8.0%10.9%10.0%7.1%8.5%

Valuation

GRBKDHILENPHMTOLTMHCMedian
NameGreen Br.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
Mkt Cap2.843.627.623.513.55.918.5
P/S1.31.30.81.31.20.71.3
P/EBIT6.49.88.06.87.94.87.4
P/E8.212.110.38.910.06.99.5
P/CFO17.212.7-48.614.112.29.712.4
Total Yield12.1%9.4%11.6%11.9%10.3%14.5%11.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%1.9%0.7%0.4%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.5%7.1%7.3%9.2%9.6%11.1%8.2%
D/E0.10.10.20.10.20.40.2
Net D/E0.10.10.10.00.10.30.1

Returns

GRBKDHILENPHMTOLTMHCMedian
NameGreen Br.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.Toll Bro.Taylor M. 
1M Rtn3.4%7.2%-7.1%4.9%10.7%3.3%4.2%
3M Rtn-10.1%-12.3%-14.8%-9.0%0.3%-11.8%-10.9%
6M Rtn5.5%19.2%2.4%18.4%29.6%1.8%12.0%
12M Rtn11.2%6.7%-20.5%9.2%12.4%0.1%7.9%
3Y Rtn161.7%68.9%24.5%168.0%180.1%92.6%127.1%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%4.1%-9.1%2.6%7.7%0.1%1.5%
3M Excs Rtn-10.3%-12.2%-13.1%-9.3%0.7%-11.4%-10.9%
6M Excs Rtn-12.9%1.6%-15.0%1.2%11.3%-15.2%-5.8%
12M Excs Rtn-10.9%-11.4%-40.4%-8.8%-6.7%-19.3%-11.2%
3Y Excs Rtn86.4%2.3%-46.9%93.6%112.3%23.6%55.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Builder operations Central1,2711,181940645397
Builder operations Southeast499530398287364
Land Development846654331
Total1,7781,7581,403976792


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,653,361
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.7%
Average Daily Volume232,797
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.10
Basic Shares Quantity43,541,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20252.5%-2.1%4.1%
7/30/2025-2.9%2.5%9.6%
2/26/20255.8%4.6%2.9%
10/30/2024-9.4%-5.8%-6.2%
7/31/2024-0.4%-8.3%6.4%
2/29/2024-6.6%-10.0%3.1%
8/2/2023-7.1%-4.7%-10.9%
2/27/20232.0%5.8%12.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive7610
# Negative10117
Median Positive4.3%5.2%6.7%
Median Negative-5.8%-6.7%-10.9%
Max Positive13.6%18.0%15.9%
Max Negative-10.9%-16.5%-34.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Press Richard S 8202025Sell69.753,000209,2505,999,058Form
1Dolson JedPresident and COO8142025Sell66.7620,0001,335,20018,265,870Form