Tearsheet

Green Brick Partners (GRBK)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.31 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Green Brick Partners (GRBK)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.31
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -9.5%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -9.5%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GRBK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For Green Brick Partners (GRBK), the stock movement of -3.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors, including year-over-year declines in financial performance, pressure on homebuilding margins, and a challenging broader housing market.



1. Despite exceeding analyst forecasts for the third quarter of 2025, Green Brick Partners reported a year-over-year decrease in net income and diluted earnings per share. Net income attributable to Green Brick Partners for Q3 2025 decreased 13% year-over-year to $78 million, and diluted earnings per share declined 11% year-over-year to $1.77 per share.

2. The company experienced a year-over-year decline in home closings revenue and a reduction in its average selling price in Q3 2025. Home closings revenue was $499 million, representing a 4.6% decrease compared to $523 million in the third quarter of 2024. The average selling price (ASP) also decreased by 4.2% year-over-year to $524,000, as the company adjusted pricing to address affordability concerns.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GRBK Return100%32%-20%114%9%18%480%
Peers Return16%55%-21%75%7%10%191%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GRBK Win Rate83%42%42%58%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%75%38%58%58%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GRBK Max Drawdown-49%-16%-42%0%-6%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-4%-41%-0%-7%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGRBKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven230 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven396 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-97.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4432.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR


In The Past

Green Brick Partners's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Green Brick Partners (GRBK)

Better Bets than Green Brick Partners (GRBK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GRBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
GRBK_9302022_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield09302022GRBKGreen Brick PartnersDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
64.0%94.2%-7.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
GRBK_9302022_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield09302022GRBKGreen Brick PartnersDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
64.0%94.2%-7.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Green Brick Partners

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GRBKCVCODHILENPHMNVRMedian
NameGreen Br.Cavco In.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR  
Mkt Price67.32586.69165.00133.13130.337,679.42149.06
Mkt Cap2.94.650.234.025.622.123.8
Rev LTM2,1132,14434,57534,76617,62310,47614,049
Op Inc LTM4392254,8923,4703,3951,7822,589
FCF LTM1581802,785-7131,5521,292736
FCF 3Y Avg1391872,7072,7831,8751,4301,652
CFO LTM1622102,911-5681,6681,319765
CFO 3Y Avg1442102,8562,9181,9831,4571,720

Growth & Margins

GRBKCVCODHILENPHMNVRMedian
NameGreen Br.Cavco In.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR  
Rev Chg LTM6.6%15.8%-7.3%-4.7%1.8%3.4%2.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.1%1.2%2.9%3.0%5.4%1.4%3.0%
Rev Chg Q-4.7%9.7%-7.4%-6.4%-1.6%-4.5%-4.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%2.3%-2.1%-1.7%-0.4%-1.2%-1.2%
Op Mgn LTM20.8%10.5%14.2%10.0%19.3%17.0%15.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg20.5%10.5%16.3%13.6%20.6%18.4%17.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%0.4%-1.0%-1.5%-0.7%-0.6%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM7.7%9.8%8.4%-1.6%9.5%12.6%8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.7%10.7%8.1%8.4%11.6%14.4%9.6%
FCF/Rev LTM7.5%8.4%8.1%-2.1%8.8%12.3%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.4%9.5%7.7%8.0%10.9%14.2%8.8%

Valuation

GRBKCVCODHILENPHMNVRMedian
NameGreen Br.Cavco In.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR  
Mkt Cap2.94.650.234.025.622.123.8
P/S1.52.11.10.91.52.21.5
P/EBIT7.318.78.09.37.612.28.6
P/E9.523.39.912.09.916.110.9
P/CFO19.821.813.5-56.715.617.516.5
Total Yield10.5%4.3%11.3%10.0%10.8%6.2%10.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.2%1.6%0.7%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.5%6.1%6.5%7.3%9.2%6.3%6.5%
D/E0.10.00.20.20.10.00.1
Net D/E0.1-0.10.10.10.0-0.00.0

Returns

GRBKCVCODHILENPHMNVRMedian
NameGreen Br.Cavco In.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR  
1M Rtn7.5%9.6%14.1%10.4%9.7%8.6%9.7%
3M Rtn-2.9%9.9%-3.9%-0.3%-2.1%-6.2%-2.5%
6M Rtn13.0%37.5%34.3%21.8%28.4%6.5%25.1%
12M Rtn-6.0%14.6%0.0%-22.0%-2.0%-16.4%-4.0%
3Y Rtn172.4%144.5%96.8%57.4%199.8%63.8%120.6%
1M Excs Rtn7.6%9.6%14.1%10.4%9.8%8.6%9.7%
3M Excs Rtn-11.9%0.3%-11.7%-8.5%-10.5%-14.0%-11.1%
6M Excs Rtn-1.7%22.8%19.6%7.1%13.7%-8.2%10.4%
12M Excs Rtn-19.3%0.5%-14.6%-35.9%-16.4%-30.4%-17.9%
3Y Excs Rtn108.5%96.3%31.7%-9.9%132.2%-0.0%64.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Builder operations Central1,2711,181940645397
Builder operations Southeast499530398287364
Land Development846654331
Total1,7781,7581,403976792


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,593,980
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.4%
Average Daily Volume202,559
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.87
Basic Shares Quantity43,541,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Press Richard S 8202025Sell69.753,000209,2505,999,058Form
1Dolson JedPresident and COO8142025Sell66.7620,0001,335,20018,265,870Form