Green Brick Partners (GRBK)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $64.0 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Green Brick Partners (GRBK)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $64.0Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 5.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Key risksGRBK key risks include [1] a disproportionate exposure to adverse economic conditions due to its geographic concentration in a few specific high-growth markets. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
| Key risksGRBK key risks include [1] a disproportionate exposure to adverse economic conditions due to its geographic concentration in a few specific high-growth markets. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GRBK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -8.2% movement in Green Brick Partners (GRBK) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025:
1. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Revised Outlooks.
In August 2025, an analyst downgraded Green Brick Partners from a "Strong Buy" to a "Hold," citing impacts on margins due to lower prices and higher incentives, and that the valuation exceeded its fair value. This was followed by another significant downgrade on October 10, 2025, when Alex Rygiel of Texas Capital Securities reduced his recommendation from "buy" to "hold" with a price target of $71 per share, leading to a 17% weekly tumble in the stock. Rygiel based his decision on revised estimates for Green Brick's 2025 performance and concerns over a disadvantageous geographic mix in what he perceived as weaker Texas markets.
2. Pressure on Homebuilding Gross Margins.
While Green Brick Partners maintained homebuilding gross margins above 30% for the tenth consecutive quarter in Q3 2025, these margins decreased by 160 basis points year-over-year as the company adjusted incentives and sales prices to align with market demand. This indicates a squeeze on profitability in a challenging market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRBK Return | 100% | 32% | -20% | 114% | 9% | 16% | 469% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 50% | -20% | 90% | 6% | 3% | 206% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRBK Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 75% | 40% | 63% | 60% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRBK Max Drawdown | -49% | -16% | -42% | 0% | -6% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -5% | -42% | 0% | -6% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, TOL, TMHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRBK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 396 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4432.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR
In The Past
Green Brick Partners's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GRBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | GRBK | Green Brick Partners | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 64.0% | 94.2% | -7.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | GRBK | Green Brick Partners | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 64.0% | 94.2% | -7.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Green Brick Partners
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 113.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.5 |
| Rev LTM | 14,295 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,558 |
| FCF LTM | 798 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,463 |
| CFO LTM | 861 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,557 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.5 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.4 |
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 11.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 127.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 55.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | -2.1% | 4.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.9% | 2.5% | 9.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | -9.4% | -5.8% | -6.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.4% | -8.3% | 6.4% |
| 2/29/2024 | -6.6% | -10.0% | 3.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | -7.1% | -4.7% | -10.9% |
| 2/27/2023 | 2.0% | 5.8% | 12.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -6.7% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 18.0% | 15.9% |
| Max Negative | -10.9% | -16.5% | -34.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |