Green Brick Partners (GRBK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.31 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Green Brick Partners (GRBK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.31Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.5% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, and Green Building Certification. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.5% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GRBK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For Green Brick Partners (GRBK), the stock movement of -3.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors, including year-over-year declines in financial performance, pressure on homebuilding margins, and a challenging broader housing market.
1. Despite exceeding analyst forecasts for the third quarter of 2025, Green Brick Partners reported a year-over-year decrease in net income and diluted earnings per share. Net income attributable to Green Brick Partners for Q3 2025 decreased 13% year-over-year to $78 million, and diluted earnings per share declined 11% year-over-year to $1.77 per share.
2. The company experienced a year-over-year decline in home closings revenue and a reduction in its average selling price in Q3 2025. Home closings revenue was $499 million, representing a 4.6% decrease compared to $523 million in the third quarter of 2024. The average selling price (ASP) also decreased by 4.2% year-over-year to $524,000, as the company adjusted pricing to address affordability concerns.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRBK Return | 100% | 32% | -20% | 114% | 9% | 18% | 480% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 55% | -21% | 75% | 7% | 10% | 191% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRBK Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 75% | 38% | 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRBK Max Drawdown | -49% | -16% | -42% | 0% | -6% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -4% | -41% | -0% | -7% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRBK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 396 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4432.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR
In The Past
Green Brick Partners's stock fell -45.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -45.1% loss requires a 82.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GRBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | GRBK | Green Brick Partners | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 64.0% | 94.2% | -7.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | GRBK | Green Brick Partners | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 64.0% | 94.2% | -7.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Green Brick Partners
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,049 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,589 |
| FCF LTM | 736 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,652 |
| CFO LTM | 765 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.8 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 120.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 64.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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