Winmark (WINA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $427.19 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Winmark (WINA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $427.19Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 55% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Circular Fashion, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Circular Fashion, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 55% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WINA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Winmark's (WINA) stock movement of approximately -4.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Missed Estimates.** Winmark announced its third-quarter 2025 results on October 15, 2025, reporting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.02, which was slightly below the $3.03 reported in Q3 2024 and missed the consensus analyst estimate of $3.22. **2. Net Income Margin Compressed Due to Increased Operating Expenses.** Despite a modest beat on revenue, the company experienced a compression in its net income margin, falling to approximately 49.2% from 51.7% year-over-year. This was primarily attributed to a 19% year-over-year increase in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which outpaced revenue growth. **3. Bearish Technical Indicators and Sell Signals Emerged.** Technical analysis revealed bearish signals for WINA, with the stock holding sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages. A pivot top point was issued on November 11, 2025, and the stock has fallen over 5% since that time. **4. Concerns Over High Valuation in Comparison to Industry and Intrinsic Value.** Analyst reports and valuation models indicated that Winmark's stock might be overvalued. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio was notably elevated compared to the broader US Specialty Retail industry average, and a discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggested a fair value significantly below the market price. **5. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Downgraded Forecasts.** Several analyses reflected a negative outlook for Winmark's stock in the near term. StockInvest.us, for instance, downgraded its recommendation for WINA from a "Sell" to a "Strong Sell" candidate, and general forecasts predicted a negative trajectory for the stock's price.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WINA Return | -4% | 39% | -3% | 83% | -3% | 8% | 147% |
| Peers Return | 81% | 19% | -24% | -21% | -15% | 1% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WINA Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 42% | 47% | 50% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WINA Max Drawdown | -42% | -8% | -24% | 0% | -20% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -17% | -43% | -42% | -45% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BNED, SPWH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY. See WINA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WINA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 229 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 471 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BNED, SPWH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY
In The Past
Winmark's stock fell -30.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -30.7% loss requires a 44.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WINA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Winmark
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,611 |
| Op Inc LTM | 108 |
| FCF LTM | 254 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 199 |
| CFO LTM | 328 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 276 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 16.7 |
| P/E | 22.4 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10152025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7152025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10162024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7172024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4172024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10182023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4192023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10122022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7132022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4142022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3082022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |