Tearsheet

Winmark (WINA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $427.19 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Winmark (WINA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $427.19
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 55%
2 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Circular Fashion, Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%
2 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Circular Fashion, Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 55%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WINA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Winmark's (WINA) stock movement of approximately -4.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Missed Estimates.** Winmark announced its third-quarter 2025 results on October 15, 2025, reporting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.02, which was slightly below the $3.03 reported in Q3 2024 and missed the consensus analyst estimate of $3.22. **2. Net Income Margin Compressed Due to Increased Operating Expenses.** Despite a modest beat on revenue, the company experienced a compression in its net income margin, falling to approximately 49.2% from 51.7% year-over-year. This was primarily attributed to a 19% year-over-year increase in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which outpaced revenue growth. **3. Bearish Technical Indicators and Sell Signals Emerged.** Technical analysis revealed bearish signals for WINA, with the stock holding sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages. A pivot top point was issued on November 11, 2025, and the stock has fallen over 5% since that time. **4. Concerns Over High Valuation in Comparison to Industry and Intrinsic Value.** Analyst reports and valuation models indicated that Winmark's stock might be overvalued. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio was notably elevated compared to the broader US Specialty Retail industry average, and a discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggested a fair value significantly below the market price. **5. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Downgraded Forecasts.** Several analyses reflected a negative outlook for Winmark's stock in the near term. StockInvest.us, for instance, downgraded its recommendation for WINA from a "Sell" to a "Strong Sell" candidate, and general forecasts predicted a negative trajectory for the stock's price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WINA Return-4%39%-3%83%-3%8%147%
Peers Return81%19%-24%-21%-15%1%10%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WINA Win Rate58%67%33%75%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%42%47%50%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WINA Max Drawdown-42%-8%-24%0%-20%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-17%-43%-42%-45%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BNED, SPWH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY. See WINA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWINAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven229 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven471 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven239 days1480 days

Compare to BNED, SPWH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY


In The Past

Winmark's stock fell -30.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -30.7% loss requires a 44.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Winmark (WINA)

Better Bets than Winmark (WINA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WINA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Winmark

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WINABNEDSPWHTSCOULTACHWYMedian
NameWinmark Barnes &.Sportsma.Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy  
Mkt Price430.168.872.4154.07544.5233.9544.01
Mkt Cap1.50.30.128.624.514.17.8
Rev LTM851,5681,20815,39911,65512,3456,611
Op Inc LTM5432-131,4881,595163108
FCF LTM45-69-55952952463254
FCF 3Y Avg44-36-36769972354199
CFO LTM45-57-371,8281,296611328
CFO 3Y Avg44-20131,5991,358507276

Growth & Margins

WINABNEDSPWHTSCOULTACHWYMedian
NameWinmark Barnes &.Sportsma.Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy  
Rev Chg LTM3.3%-0.3%-2.9%4.3%2.9%9.2%3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.6%2.3%-6.4%4.5%7.7%9.1%3.4%
Rev Chg Q5.2%2.1%1.8%7.2%9.3%8.6%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%0.6%0.4%1.7%2.1%2.0%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM64.3%2.0%-1.1%9.7%13.7%1.3%5.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg64.3%-0.4%-0.6%9.9%14.4%0.7%5.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%0.4%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%0.3%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM53.0%-3.6%-3.0%11.9%11.1%5.0%8.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg52.7%-1.3%1.0%10.6%12.1%4.4%7.5%
FCF/Rev LTM52.8%-4.4%-4.5%6.2%8.2%3.8%5.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg52.4%-2.3%-2.8%5.1%8.7%3.1%4.1%

Valuation

WINABNEDSPWHTSCOULTACHWYMedian
NameWinmark Barnes &.Sportsma.Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy  
Mkt Cap1.50.30.128.624.514.17.8
P/S20.90.20.12.01.81.41.6
P/EBIT32.0-8.7-8.120.213.295.916.7
P/E42.8-5.1-3.527.317.5116.822.4
P/CFO39.5-6.3-3.616.516.228.916.4
Total Yield4.6%-19.5%-28.3%3.7%5.7%0.9%2.3%
Dividend Yield2.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%12.4%-9.7%2.9%4.7%2.3%2.9%
D/E0.01.04.20.20.10.00.1
Net D/E0.01.04.10.20.1-0.00.1

Returns

WINABNEDSPWHTSCOULTACHWYMedian
NameWinmark Barnes &.Sportsma.Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy  
1M Rtn6.6%0.0%1.7%3.5%5.2%3.1%3.3%
3M Rtn-4.9%6.6%-8.7%-9.7%2.5%-16.7%-6.8%
6M Rtn5.1%-25.0%-6.6%10.5%16.9%-28.2%-0.8%
12M Rtn8.6%-21.1%9.5%-3.5%37.7%1.0%4.8%
3Y Rtn95.7%-96.7%-75.3%26.7%15.5%-24.4%-4.4%
1M Excs Rtn6.7%0.0%1.7%3.5%5.3%3.2%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-13.4%0.1%-25.3%-15.8%-2.5%-22.9%-14.6%
6M Excs Rtn-9.7%-39.7%-21.3%-4.2%2.2%-42.9%-15.5%
12M Excs Rtn-5.7%-32.5%-0.9%-16.6%27.3%-11.9%-8.8%
3Y Excs Rtn22.6%-169.1%-148.8%-44.4%-53.7%-89.9%-71.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Franchising7874  57
Other57  16
Total8381  73


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Franchising4949  35
Other45  8
Total5354  43


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Unallocated2121181232
Franchising89554
Other0141427
Total2930273162


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity236,656
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.0%
Average Daily Volume74,073
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.19
Basic Shares Quantity3,553,211
Short % of Basic Shares6.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251015202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025715202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025416202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241016202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024717202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024417202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231018202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023719202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023419202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221012202210-Q 9/24/2022
6302022713202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022414202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021308202210-K 12/25/2021