Tearsheet

Penske Automotive (PAG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $168.01 | Market Cap: $11.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Penske Automotive (PAG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $168.01
Market Cap: $11.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  Key risks
PAG key risks include [1] increased vehicle inventory borrowing costs due to higher interest rates and [2] operational disruptions from cybersecurity incidents impacting its profits and dealer management systems.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68%
5 Key risks
PAG key risks include [1] increased vehicle inventory borrowing costs due to higher interest rates and [2] operational disruptions from cybersecurity incidents impacting its profits and dealer management systems.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PAG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining why Penske Automotive (PAG) stock moved by -8.2% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today: 1. Penske Automotive Group reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $3.23, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.48 and represented a 3.9% decrease year-over-year. Revenue for the quarter was $7.70 billion, also falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.74 billion, despite a 1.4% increase from the prior-year quarter.

2. The company's net income attributable to common stockholders declined by 6% to $213.0 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This also led to a 5% decrease in related earnings per share to $3.23 from $3.39 in the previous year's period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAG Return20%84%9%42%-3%14%281%
Peers Return31%101%-26%26%-13%-8%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAG Win Rate67%75%50%67%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate70%62%40%52%45%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAG Max Drawdown-57%-3%-14%-1%-9%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-5%-38%-7%-32%-39% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LAD, KMX, CAR, ABG, CRMT. See PAG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPAGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven25 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven197 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,148 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven404.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,072 days1,480 days

Compare to LAD, KMX, CAR, ABG, CRMT


In The Past

Penske Automotive's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Penske Automotive (PAG)

Better Bets than Penske Automotive (PAG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Penske Automotive

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
Mkt Price167.85344.0941.07130.34242.3426.97149.09
Mkt Cap11.18.76.14.64.70.25.4
Rev LTM30,68237,61126,36811,40217,8271,38722,097
Op Inc LTM1,2961,548-234-31,01454534
FCF LTM757-42685-9,865629-11309
FCF 3Y Avg773-280517-9,621350-60145
CFO LTM1,0702951,2083,631868-8969
CFO 3Y Avg1,125319913,683546-53768

Growth & Margins

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
Rev Chg LTM2.2%8.4%1.8%-3.2%8.1%2.1%2.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%11.0%-7.4%-3.6%7.5%1.9%3.1%
Rev Chg Q1.4%4.9%-6.0%3.3%13.3%0.8%2.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%1.2%-1.6%1.0%3.3%0.2%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM4.2%4.1%-0.9%-0.0%5.7%3.9%4.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.5%4.7%-1.0%8.9%6.4%3.6%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%1.5%-0.1%-2.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM3.5%0.8%4.6%31.8%4.9%-0.6%4.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.8%0.0%3.8%30.8%3.2%-3.8%3.5%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%-0.1%2.6%-86.5%3.5%-0.8%1.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.6%-0.9%2.0%-80.0%2.1%-4.2%0.5%

Valuation

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
Mkt Cap11.18.76.14.64.70.25.4
P/S0.40.20.40.50.30.20.3
P/EBIT7.44.26.3-2.24.7-4.7
P/E12.28.819.3-2.78.5-16.88.7
P/CFO10.727.08.31.65.5-28.76.9
Total Yield10.4%12.0%5.2%-37.2%11.8%-5.9%7.8%
Dividend Yield2.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.9%-3.4%4.7%-195.9%7.4%-4.7%
D/E0.71.81.95.11.3-1.8
Net D/E0.71.81.95.01.2-1.8

Returns

PAGLADKMXCARABGCRMTMedian
NamePenske A.Lithia M.CarMax Avis Bud.Asbury A.America'. 
1M Rtn7.8%20.6%27.9%0.7%11.8%50.5%16.2%
3M Rtn-4.8%3.5%-30.5%-14.9%-0.2%-16.2%-9.8%
6M Rtn0.1%5.6%-36.2%0.4%2.8%-44.8%0.2%
12M Rtn7.1%-6.5%-50.6%46.2%-3.9%-51.3%-5.2%
3Y Rtn52.4%65.6%-33.2%-22.5%45.0%-61.3%11.3%
1M Excs Rtn7.0%19.9%27.2%-0.0%11.1%49.8%15.5%
3M Excs Rtn-6.5%0.8%-32.9%-17.8%-2.6%-22.4%-12.1%
6M Excs Rtn-12.3%-6.7%-48.5%-12.0%-9.6%-57.2%-12.2%
12M Excs Rtn-5.0%-20.0%-63.5%30.3%-15.6%-62.3%-17.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-24.3%-8.6%-106.1%-95.5%-33.6%-132.6%-64.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Retail Automotive25,20923,69522,51317,92920,616
Retail Commercial Truck3,6843,5412,4662,0612,050
Other634579576454513
Non-Automotive Investments00   
Total29,52727,81525,55520,44423,179


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,892,804
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.3%
Average Daily Volume215,408
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.79
Basic Shares Quantity66,015,808
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20250.1%-1.9%1.5%
7/30/20250.4%6.8%12.9%
4/30/2025-0.0%-0.4%6.3%
2/13/2025-0.8%-7.0%-14.3%
10/29/2024-1.7%-2.5%8.4%
7/31/2024-1.6%-8.5%-2.0%
4/30/2024-0.6%0.2%-1.0%
2/7/2024-0.2%2.1%3.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101317
# Negative14117
Median Positive2.0%4.5%8.4%
Median Negative-1.3%-3.1%-3.2%
Max Positive8.1%15.8%31.7%
Max Negative-6.6%-8.5%-14.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021