Penske Automotive (PAG)
Market Price (12/27/2025): $165.525 | Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Penske Automotive (PAG)
Market Price (12/27/2025): $165.525Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 6.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Key risksPAG key risks include [1] increased vehicle inventory borrowing costs due to higher interest rates and [2] operational disruptions from cybersecurity incidents impacting its profits and dealer management systems. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
| Key risksPAG key risks include [1] increased vehicle inventory borrowing costs due to higher interest rates and [2] operational disruptions from cybersecurity incidents impacting its profits and dealer management systems. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Penske Automotive's (PAG) stock movement of approximately -9.4% from August 31, 2025, to December 27, 2025:
<b>1. Penske Automotive Group Missed Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings and Revenue Estimates.</b><br>
PAG reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $3.23 per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.48 per share by 7.18%. Additionally, quarterly revenue of $7.7 billion missed the consensus estimate by 0.58%. Net income attributable to common stockholders also decreased by 6% compared to the prior year period.
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<b>2. Profitability in the Third Quarter was Impacted by Weakness in the North American Freight Market and Challenges in the U.K. Auto Retail Market.</b><br>
The company's Q3 2025 earnings before taxes were negatively affected by approximately $23 million due to a downturn in the North American freight market, leading to lower commercial truck sales and services. Furthermore, the U.K. auto retail market faced difficulties from a cybersecurity incident at an OEM partner and increased social program costs.
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<b>3. Penske Automotive Experienced a Decline in Used Vehicle Unit Deliveries.</b><br>
For the three months ended September 30, 2025, used vehicle unit deliveries decreased by 5%, with a 1% decrease in the U.S. and a 10% decrease internationally. Over the nine months ended September 30, 2025, used units delivered decreased by 13%.
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<b>4. Significant Insider Selling Occurred During Q2 2025.</b><br>
Roger S. Penske, the CEO, sold $15.69 million in shares in June 2025, contributing to total insider sales of $28.6 million for Q2 2025. This amount exceeds the $5 million threshold for inclusion as an explanatory factor.
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<b>5. Earnings from Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) Investment Declined.</b><br>
Penske Automotive's 28.9% equity interest in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) saw its earnings decrease in Q3 2025. This was attributed to continued weakness in the freight market, lower rental revenue, an increase in bad debt expense, and reduced gains from the sale of used trucks, which collectively impacted PAG's equity income by about $2.2 million in the quarter.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.7% change in PAG stock from 9/26/2025 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a -1.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 9262025 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 170.26 | 165.60 | -2.74% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30577.50 | 30682.00 | 0.34% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.13% | 3.08% | -1.71% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.78 | 11.58 | -1.62% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66.17 | 66.02 | 0.24% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.74% |
Market Drivers
9/26/2025 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | -2.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.8% | 38.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.9% change in PAG stock from 6/27/2025 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a -3.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6272025 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 170.62 | 165.60 | -2.94% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30611.90 | 30682.00 | 0.23% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.10% | 3.08% | -0.68% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.02 | 11.58 | -3.61% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66.77 | 66.02 | 1.13% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.96% |
Market Drivers
6/27/2025 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | -2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 21.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 11.9% | 39.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.9% change in PAG stock from 12/26/2024 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a 5.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12262024 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.12 | 165.60 | 8.86% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30007.40 | 30682.00 | 2.25% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.91% | 3.08% | 5.70% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.63 | 11.58 | -0.41% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66.77 | 66.02 | 1.13% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.85% |
Market Drivers
12/26/2024 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | 8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.2% | 59.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.1% change in PAG stock from 12/27/2022 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a 109.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12272022 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.72 | 165.60 | 58.13% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27099.10 | 30682.00 | 13.22% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.14% | 3.08% | -40.18% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.54 | 11.58 | 109.01% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73.74 | 66.02 | 10.47% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.39% |
Market Drivers
12/27/2023 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAG | 7.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 50.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.0% | 57.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAG Return | 20% | 84% | 9% | 42% | -3% | 13% | 277% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAG Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAG Max Drawdown | -57% | -3% | -14% | -1% | -9% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL. See PAG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,148 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 404.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,072 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Penske Automotive's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- New Vehicle Sales: Sells a wide range of new cars, light trucks, and motorcycles from various manufacturers.
- Used Vehicle Sales: Offers a diverse inventory of pre-owned cars, light trucks, and motorcycles.
- Vehicle Service and Parts: Provides comprehensive maintenance, repair, and replacement parts for new and used vehicles.
- Commercial Truck Dealerships: Sells new and used heavy and medium-duty commercial trucks, along with related parts and service.
- Financing and Insurance: Offers vehicle financing, extended service contracts, and various insurance products to customers.
- Penske Truck Leasing (Equity Investment): Benefits from a 50% equity interest in Penske Truck Leasing, which provides full-service truck leasing, rental, and logistics solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) is one of the largest diversified international transportation services companies, with its primary business being automotive retail. Therefore, it primarily sells to individuals.
Penske Automotive serves the following major categories of customers:
- New and Used Vehicle Purchasers: This category includes individual consumers and families who purchase new and pre-owned cars, SUVs, and light trucks for personal transportation from Penske Automotive's extensive network of dealerships.
- Automotive Aftersales Customers: This category encompasses vehicle owners (including those who purchased their vehicles from Penske and external customers) who utilize Penske's service departments for routine maintenance, mechanical repairs, genuine parts purchases, and collision repair services for their personal vehicles.
- Commercial Truck Customers: While not primarily individual customers, this represents a significant category for PAG. This segment includes businesses, fleet operators, and independent owner-operators who purchase new and used commercial trucks, parts, and services for their commercial and logistical operations through Penske's commercial truck dealerships.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (XTRA: BMW)
- Daimler Truck Holding AG (XTRA: DTR)
- Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE)
- Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)
- General Motors Company (NYSE: GM)
- Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: HMC)
- Hyundai Motor Company (KRX: 005380)
- Isuzu Motors Limited (TYO: 7202)
- Mazda Motor Corporation (TYO: 7261)
- McLaren
- Mercedes-Benz Group AG (XTRA: MBG)
- Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (TYO: 7201)
- Renault SA (EPA: RNO)
- Stellantis N.V. (NYSE: STLA)
- Subaru Corporation (TYO: 7270)
- Tata Motors Limited (NYSE: TTM)
- Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM)
- Volkswagen AG (XTRA: VOW3)
- Volvo Car AB (Nasdaq Stockholm: VOLCAR B)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Roger S. Penske
Chairman and CEO
Roger S. Penske is the founder, Chairman, and CEO of Penske Corporation, a diversified transportation services company, and also serves as the Chairman and CEO of Penske Automotive Group. He began his entrepreneurial career by purchasing a Chevrolet dealership in Philadelphia in 1964 with a loan from his father, after working as a sales engineer at Alcoa and having a successful career as a race car driver. Under his leadership, Penske Corporation expanded to include Penske Truck Leasing, Team Penske (a professional motorsports team), and other transportation-related businesses. In 2020, Penske Corporation acquired the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. His ventures are primarily under the privately owned Penske Corporation, indicating a focus on building and expanding his own enterprises rather than managing companies backed by private equity firms or selling previously founded companies to acquirers.
Shelley Hulgrave
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Shelley Hulgrave has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Penske Automotive Group since June 2021. She joined Penske Automotive in 2006 as Corporate Accounting Manager and subsequently held roles as Vice President and Corporate Controller (from 2015 to 2020) and Senior Vice President (from 2020 to 2021). Prior to joining Penske, Ms. Hulgrave held various positions for DaimlerChrysler Financial and was an Audit Manager at Ernst & Young. Her background is deeply rooted in corporate finance and public accounting, with no readily available information indicating that she founded or sold other companies, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Robert H. Kurnick Jr.
President and Director
Robert H. Kurnick Jr. has been the President of Penske Automotive Group since April 2008. He also serves as Vice Chair of Penske Corporation, a position he has held since September 2017, and previously served as President of Penske Corporation from 2003. Mr. Kurnick joined the Penske organization in 1995. Before his tenure at Penske, he was a partner in the Detroit law firm of Honigman Miller Schwartz and Cohn.
Anthony R. Pordon
Executive Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Development
Anthony R. Pordon has served as Executive Vice President of Penske Automotive Group since May 2011. Prior to this, he held positions as Senior Vice President since January 2006 and Vice President since July 2001. His responsibilities primarily include investor relations, corporate communications, and corporate development. Before joining the retail automobile business, Mr. Pordon served in various capacities at Detroit Diesel Corporation and was an auditor for five years at Deloitte & Touche LLP.
George W. Brochick
Executive Vice President, Strategic Development
George W. Brochick serves as the Executive Vice President of Strategic Development at Penske Automotive Group, Inc. He also serves as a Board Member of the American International Automobile Dealers Association and Universal Technical Institute.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Penske Automotive Group (PAG) primarily revolve around macroeconomic factors, the evolving automotive landscape, and operational challenges.
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Macroeconomic Conditions and Interest Rate Fluctuations
Penske Automotive's profitability is significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, interest rates, and unemployment rates. Higher interest rates directly increase the company's borrowing costs for vehicle inventory (floorplan costs) and other debt obligations, leading to a decline in net income. For example, higher interest and vehicle floorplan costs contributed to a 28% drop in net income for Penske Automotive in the first quarter. Additionally, economic downturns, rising interest rates, or a potential recession can reduce consumer demand for both new and used vehicles, as well as decrease spending on maintenance and repair services. -
Industry Transformation and Competition
The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, posing risks to Penske Automotive's traditional business model. The global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) and the emergence of new mobility models, such as shared and autonomous vehicles, could disrupt conventional automotive retail operations. Intensifying competition from online retailers and new entrants in the electric vehicle market can pressure profit margins and market share. Adapting to these rapid technological changes and evolving consumer preferences requires substantial investments to remain competitive. -
Operational and Supply Chain Risks
Penske Automotive is exposed to various operational and supply chain risks. Supply chain disruptions, which can be caused by geopolitical events or natural disasters, can adversely affect the availability of vehicles and parts, thereby impacting sales and profitability. Furthermore, the company faces risks related to cybersecurity incidents, which can disrupt operations and result in financial and reputational damage. Past incidents, such as a cybersecurity hack at Jaguar Land Rover, have already impacted the company's profits in certain regions, and a CDK Global incident also affected its dealer management system.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Direct-to-consumer sales models by vehicle manufacturers: The rise of electric vehicle manufacturers (e.g., Tesla, Rivian, Lucid) selling directly to consumers, bypassing the traditional franchised dealer network, sets a precedent. Established original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are also exploring or implementing agency models and enhanced online sales strategies, particularly for electric vehicles. This shift threatens the traditional dealership's role as the primary sales and distribution channel, impacting Penske Automotive Group's revenue from new and used vehicle sales, and associated financing and insurance products.
Reduced service revenue due to vehicle electrification: Electric vehicles (EVs) have significantly fewer moving parts and require less routine maintenance (e.g., no oil changes, fewer brake pad replacements due to regenerative braking) compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. As EV adoption accelerates across both passenger and commercial vehicle segments, Penske Automotive Group's highly profitable service and parts departments face a long-term erosion of revenue, necessitating adaptation of their business models.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) operates as a leading international transportation services company with core business segments in automotive retail, commercial truck retail, and aftermarket services across North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
Addressable Markets for Penske Automotive's Main Products or Services:
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New Vehicle Sales (Automotive Retail)
- U.S. Market: The seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate (SAAR) for new light vehicles in the United States was 15.4 million units in October 2025. In 2025, new car sales in the United States are projected to reach an estimated 15.9 million units.
- Europe Market: Approximately 12.9 million new passenger cars were registered across Europe-28 in 2024. New passenger vehicle registrations in Europe (EU, EFTA, UK) increased by 10.7% in September 2025.
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Used Vehicle Sales (Automotive Retail)
- U.S. Market: The United States used car market size was valued at approximately USD 322.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach nearly USD 539.70 billion by 2034. In terms of revenue, the market generated USD 248.17 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach USD 267.13 billion in 2025. Americans purchase around 39.4 million second-hand automobiles annually.
- Europe Market: The Europe used car market size reached around USD 455.58 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 694.08 billion by 2034. Another estimate indicates the market generated a revenue of approximately USD 536.5 billion in 2024. In 2021, the market for used cars in Europe had a total volume of EUR 429 billion.
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Commercial Truck Sales (Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Retail)
- U.S. Market: The U.S. heavy-duty trucks market size was USD 56.79 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 127.32 billion by 2034. The United States medium and heavy-duty truck market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of more than 2.89% from 2025 to 2030.
- Europe Market: The Europe medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles market size is estimated at USD 40.99 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 50.13 billion by 2029. The Europe medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market is estimated at US$39.35 billion in 2024, projected to reach US$56.49 billion by 2031. Separately, the Europe heavy-duty trucks market is valued at USD 34.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 62.2 billion by 2035.
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Aftermarket Services (Vehicle Maintenance, Repair, and Parts Sales)
- U.S. Market: The entire U.S. automotive aftermarket, which includes light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, is projected at nearly USD 535 billion in 2024. The U.S. automotive aftermarket industry size was valued at USD 228.19 billion in 2024 and is estimated to surpass around USD 350.64 billion by 2034.
- Europe Market: The European automotive aftermarket market size was valued at USD 136.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 236.76 billion by 2033. For Europe-34, the total market value of parts and labor in the aftermarket was EUR 308 billion in 2023.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Penske Automotive (PAG) over the next 2-3 years:- Growth in High-Margin Service and Parts Revenue: Penske Automotive expects continued growth from its service and parts operations, a segment that consistently delivers higher margins than vehicle sales. The company is actively focused on increasing bay utilization and enhancing fixed cost absorption. This growth is supported by an aging vehicle fleet and the increasing complexity of newer models, leading to a higher demand for maintenance and repair services.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Geographic Expansion: Penske Automotive has a stated strategy of growth through acquisitions and maintains an active pipeline for future purchases, aiming to meet its acquired revenue targets. The company's diversified international operations across countries like the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia provide a broad base for expansion and mitigate regional economic risks.
- Recovery and Expansion of Commercial Truck Business (Penske Transportation Solutions & Premier Truck Group): While the commercial truck sector has recently faced headwinds from a prolonged freight recession, a rebound is anticipated, potentially starting in 2026. This recovery is expected to be driven by an eventual end to the freight recession and possible 2027 regulatory changes concerning nitrogen oxide emissions, which could stimulate a new truck replacement cycle. Additionally, the company's joint venture, Penske Energy LLC, focuses on developing EV charging infrastructure for commercial fleets, presenting a new avenue for growth.
- Strength in U.S. Retail Automotive and Increased Used Vehicle Sourcing: The U.S. retail automotive business has demonstrated strong performance, with increases in new unit deliveries and revenue. Furthermore, an expected improvement in lease returns beginning in 2026 is projected to benefit franchise dealers by providing enhanced sourcing opportunities for used vehicles.
- Expansion of Energy Solutions Business in Australia: Penske Automotive sees significant long-term revenue potential from its energy solutions business in Australia. This segment aims to capitalize on the growing demand for robust power solutions for data centers, particularly those supporting the expansion of artificial intelligence, with a target of generating at least $1 billion in revenue by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases:- Penske Automotive Group repurchased approximately $119.0 million of common stock through September 30, 2025.
- As of May 14, 2025, the company had a securities repurchase authorization totaling $295.8 million.
- In 2024, Penske Automotive Group repurchased $58.7 million in common stock under its repurchase program and acquired an additional $18.8 million from employees in connection with equity awards.
Share Issuance:
- No significant dollar amount of share issuances by Penske Automotive Group was explicitly detailed in the available information for the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments:
- Penske Automotive Group completed acquisitions representing approximately $2.1 billion in estimated annualized revenue during 2024. These included Porsche and Ducati dealerships in Australia, 16 high-end dealerships in the UK, and Bill Brown Ford in Michigan, which alone is expected to add $550 million in annualized revenue.
- In the third quarter of 2025, the company acquired an iconic Ferrari dealership in Modena, Italy, with an estimated annualized revenue of $40 million.
- Penske has an acquisition pipeline of over $1.5 billion of revenue expected to close during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures:
- For the full year 2024, Penske Automotive Group reported capital expenditures of $86.1 million.
- Through September 30, 2025, the company invested $227 million in capital expenditures.
- Capital expenditures are primarily focused on improvements to existing dealership facilities, construction of new facilities, and acquisition of property for future development. Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS), in which PAG holds a 28.9% interest, expects to purchase $3 billion worth of trucks annually for the next three years and beyond.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to PAG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.0% | 6.0% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.7% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Penske Automotive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $165.60 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/23/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $162.67 | $164.49 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.0% | 27.7% |
| Downside Capture | 51.68 | 74.62 |
| Upside Capture | 27.75 | 72.05 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.6% | 51.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.67 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| Up Beta | -0.43 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| Down Beta | 0.29 | 0.74 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| Up Capture | 105% | 4% | -2% | 35% | 56% | 72% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 25 | 59 | 115 | 365 |
| Down Capture | 95% | 56% | 77% | 65% | 85% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 27 | 38 | 67 | 134 | 386 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of PAG With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 8.6% | 7.5% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 27.6% | 24.3% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 59.4% | 51.2% | -3.8% | 6.1% | 53.4% | 19.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of PAG With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 25.9% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 33.0% | 23.8% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.76 | 0.36 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 52.6% | 51.6% | 2.1% | 16.7% | 48.2% | 18.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of PAG With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAG | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 17.3% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 36.4% | 21.9% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 56.7% | 56.2% | -3.2% | 25.1% | 52.0% | 14.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 0.1% | -1.9% | 1.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.4% | 6.8% | 12.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.0% | -0.4% | 6.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -0.8% | -7.0% | -14.3% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.7% | -2.5% | 8.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.6% | -8.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.6% | 0.2% | -1.0% |
| 2/7/2024 | -0.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 4.5% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -3.1% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 15.8% | 31.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -8.5% | -14.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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