Tearsheet

Toll Brothers (TOL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $141.34 | Market Cap: $13.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Toll Brothers (TOL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $141.34
Market Cap: $13.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TOL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining recent movements in Toll Brothers (TOL) stock. 1. Upcoming Q4 2025 Earnings Report. Toll Brothers is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after the market closes on Monday, December 8, 2025, with an investor conference call slated for December 9, 2025. This event is highly anticipated, and market participants are keenly watching for how actual results compare to analyst expectations, which forecast earnings per share of $4.91 and revenue of $3.318 billion for the quarter.

2. Recent Analyst Upgrades and Positive Ratings. On December 4, 2025, JP Morgan upgraded Toll Brothers from a "Neutral" to an "Overweight" rating, simultaneously setting an optimistic new price target of $161.00. This positive revision from a prominent financial institution can significantly influence investor perception and contribute to upward price momentum. The stock also maintains a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating across various brokerages.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TOL Return12%68%-30%109%23%11%277%
Peers Return22%44%-18%66%7%5%167%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TOL Win Rate67%83%42%83%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate72%70%42%57%65%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TOL Max Drawdown-65%-3%-43%0%-6%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-5%-37%-2%-5%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, J. See TOL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTOLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven85.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven235 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-72.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven256.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven189 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven825 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1287 days1480 days

Compare to DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, J


In The Past

Toll Brothers's stock fell -46.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -46.0% loss requires a 85.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Toll Brothers (TOL)

Better Bets than Toll Brothers (TOL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TOL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
TOL_9302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302023TOLToll BrothersQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
75.8%111.9%-7.6%
TOL_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019TOLToll BrothersDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.2%-5.8%-60.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
TOL_9302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302023TOLToll BrothersQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
75.8%111.9%-7.6%
TOL_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019TOLToll BrothersDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.2%-5.8%-60.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Toll Brothers

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TOLDHILENPHMNVRJMedian
NameToll Bro.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S. 
Mkt Price142.71165.00133.13130.337,679.42138.73140.72
Mkt Cap14.050.234.025.622.116.723.8
Rev LTM10,87734,57534,76617,62310,47611,83514,729
Op Inc LTM1,7684,8923,4703,3951,7828482,589
FCF LTM9182,785-7131,5521,2924121,105
FCF 3Y Avg1,2012,7072,7831,8751,4307521,652
CFO LTM9952,911-5681,6681,3195001,157
CFO 3Y Avg1,2742,8562,9181,9831,4578701,720

Growth & Margins

TOLDHILENPHMNVRJMedian
NameToll Bro.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S. 
Rev Chg LTM3.3%-7.3%-4.7%1.8%3.4%61.5%2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.4%2.9%3.0%5.4%1.4%1.1%3.0%
Rev Chg Q8.0%-7.4%-6.4%-1.6%-4.5%5.1%-3.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%-2.1%-1.7%-0.4%-1.2%1.3%-0.8%
Op Mgn LTM16.3%14.2%10.0%19.3%17.0%7.2%15.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.5%16.3%13.6%20.6%18.4%6.3%16.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-1.0%-1.5%-0.7%-0.6%0.5%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM9.1%8.4%-1.6%9.5%12.6%4.2%8.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.9%8.1%8.4%11.6%14.4%9.5%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%8.1%-2.1%8.8%12.3%3.5%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.2%7.7%8.0%10.9%14.2%8.2%9.6%

Valuation

TOLDHILENPHMNVRJMedian
NameToll Bro.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S. 
Mkt Cap14.050.234.025.622.116.723.8
P/S1.01.10.91.52.21.31.2
P/EBIT6.48.09.37.612.217.78.6
P/E8.29.912.09.916.132.010.9
P/CFO11.313.5-56.715.617.531.614.5
Total Yield12.7%11.3%10.0%10.8%6.2%3.6%10.4%
Dividend Yield0.4%1.2%1.6%0.7%0.0%0.5%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.1%6.5%7.3%9.2%6.3%4.7%6.9%
D/E0.30.20.20.10.00.20.2
Net D/E0.20.10.10.0-0.00.10.1

Returns

TOLDHILENPHMNVRJMedian
NameToll Bro.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Jacobs S. 
1M Rtn7.1%14.1%10.4%9.7%8.6%-9.8%9.2%
3M Rtn1.6%-3.9%-0.3%-2.1%-6.2%-3.0%-2.5%
6M Rtn32.4%34.3%21.8%28.4%6.5%11.0%25.1%
12M Rtn-11.3%0.0%-22.0%-2.0%-16.4%2.5%-6.7%
3Y Rtn206.8%96.8%57.4%199.8%63.8%38.4%80.3%
1M Excs Rtn7.1%14.1%10.4%9.8%8.6%-9.8%9.2%
3M Excs Rtn-7.0%-11.7%-8.5%-10.5%-14.0%-8.6%-9.5%
6M Excs Rtn17.7%19.6%7.1%13.7%-8.2%-3.8%10.4%
12M Excs Rtn-26.4%-14.6%-35.9%-16.4%-30.4%-13.4%-21.4%
3Y Excs Rtn146.1%31.7%-9.9%132.2%-0.0%-30.7%15.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,670,737
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.3%
Average Daily Volume814,647
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.51
Basic Shares Quantity98,434,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025828202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025529202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025228202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241220202410-K 10/31/2024
7312024904202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024531202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024301202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231221202310-K 10/31/2023
7312023831202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023601202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023302202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221219202210-K 10/31/2022
7312022901202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022602202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022303202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211217202110-K 10/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Yearley Douglas C. Jr.Chief Executive Officer9102025Sell148.0820,1452,983,10639,385,586Form
1Yearley Douglas C. Jr.Chief Executive Officer9022025Sell138.2625,0003,456,38539,557,220Form
2Pritchett Wendell E. 9022025Sell138.712,500346,7831,874,154Form
3Connor Martin P.Chief Financial Officer8282025Sell137.515,350735,6652,099,465Form
4Grubb Michael J.SVP & Chief Accounting Officer8252025Sell140.6350070,315272,682Form