Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $99.29 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $99.29Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Key risksMCRI key risks include [1] heightened regulatory and licensing exposure, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, and Casino Gaming. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, and Casino Gaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Key risksMCRI key risks include [1] heightened regulatory and licensing exposure, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCRI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -4.4% stock movement for Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. Revenue Miss in Q3 2025 Despite Record Results: Although Monarch Casino & Resort announced all-time record quarterly financial results for the third quarter of 2025, including record net income and Adjusted EBITDA, its net revenue of $142.81 million fell below the consensus analyst estimate of $145.54 million. This revenue miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment despite otherwise strong performance metrics.
2. Cautious Analyst Ratings and Outlook: Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, multiple analysts maintained a "Hold" consensus rating for MCRI as of December 12, 2025. Analyst commentary from October 22, 2025, indicated that while the company's results were solid, broader "industry headwinds," "macroeconomic risks," and "declining casino foot traffic" warranted a cautious stance and a "hold" rating for the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCRI Return | 26% | 21% | 4% | -3% | 16% | 27% | 128% |
| Peers Return | 63% | 65% | -33% | 13% | -13% | -1% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCRI Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 35% | 48% | 47% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCRI Max Drawdown | -71% | -14% | -27% | -19% | -6% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -82% | -16% | -44% | -13% | -27% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BYD, RRR, CZR, PENN, GDEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 871 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 301.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 722.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,017 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CHDN, BYD, FLL, LVS, FLUT
In The Past
Monarch Casino & Resort's stock fell -41.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -41.8% loss requires a 71.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Monarch Casino & Resort
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| Rev LTM | 3,033 |
| Op Inc LTM | 418 |
| FCF LTM | 228 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 88 |
| CFO LTM | 553 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 492 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 4.3 |
| P/E | 11.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -62.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.2% | -4.5% | 2.2% |
| 7/16/2025 | 20.0% | 23.9% | 16.4% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.4% | 2.8% | 6.5% |
| 2/11/2025 | 7.9% | 6.5% | -2.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 6.5% | 8.1% | 13.6% |
| 7/25/2024 | 1.7% | -2.3% | -3.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 3.1% |
| 10/18/2023 | -5.7% | -4.0% | 3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -4.0% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 26.5% | 33.3% |
| Max Negative | -19.5% | -46.4% | -30.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |