Tearsheet

Royal Caribbean (RCL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $261.15 | Market Cap: $71.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Royal Caribbean (RCL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $261.15
Market Cap: $71.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RCL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -26.6% stock movement for Royal Caribbean (RCL) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Revenue Miss in Q3 2025 Earnings: Despite exceeding earnings per share (EPS) estimates with $5.75, Royal Caribbean's reported revenue of $5.14 billion for the third quarter of 2025 fell short of analysts' consensus estimates of $5.16 billion. This revenue miss likely contributed to the stock's decline, as evidenced by a 7.65% pre-market drop on October 28, 2025, the day earnings were released.

2. Downward Revisions of Price Targets by Analysts: Following the August 2025 peak, several analyst firms adjusted their price targets for Royal Caribbean downwards. For example, Truist Financial decreased its target from $337.00 to $333.00 in September, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its target from $367.00 to $357.00 in October, UBS Group reduced its target from $353.00 to $304.00 in November, and Wells Fargo & Company adjusted its target from $320.00 to $316.00 in December. These revisions reflected a more cautious outlook, despite many maintaining "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RCL Return-44%3%-36%162%79%16%103%
Peers Return-22%8%-32%62%21%4%19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RCL Win Rate33%50%58%67%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate38%40%32%42%43%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RCL Max Drawdown-83%-14%-59%-1%-11%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-15%-40%-1%-16%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CCL, EXPE, H, NCLH, AHMA. See RCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRCLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven210.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven342 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven504.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1463 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven389 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven733.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven659 days1480 days

Compare to CCL, EXPE, H, NCLH, AHMA


In The Past

Royal Caribbean's stock fell -67.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -67.7% loss requires a 210.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Royal Caribbean (RCL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
RCL_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020RCLRoyal CaribbeanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.9%17.1%-72.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
RCL_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020RCLRoyal CaribbeanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.9%17.1%-72.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Royal Caribbean

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHAHMAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Ambition. 
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Growth & Margins

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NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Ambition. 
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Valuation

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHAHMAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Ambition. 
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Returns

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHAHMAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.Ambition. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment13,9008,8401,5322,20910,951
Total13,9008,8401,5322,20910,951


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,006,230
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.3%
Average Daily Volume2,167,638
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.08
Basic Shares Quantity272,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021