Stride (LRN)


Market Price (8/22/2026): $84.33 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Stride (LRN)


Market Price (8/22/2026): $84.33
Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 10.0%

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7%

Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024.

Key risks
LRN key risks include [1] securities lawsuits and an SEC investigation alleging the company inflated enrollment and made illegal staffing cuts, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 10.0%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7%
7 Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024.
8 Key risks
LRN key risks include [1] securities lawsuits and an SEC investigation alleging the company inflated enrollment and made illegal staffing cuts, Show more.

LRN in ETFs

Weight = LRN's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.11%
IJR0.19%
VB0.04%
IJS0.37%
SLYV0.37%
VIOV0.36%
+15 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/4/2026

Stride (LRN) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Report and Guidance.

Stride's stock performance since April 30, 2026, was significantly influenced by its Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings, reported on April 28, 2026. The company reported an EPS of $1.93, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.21 by 12.67%. Additionally, net income declined 10.9% year-over-year, and Stride narrowed its full-year Fiscal Year 2026 guidance, which likely set a negative tone for investor sentiment as the period began.

2. Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Shortfall Against Expectations.

Stride's preliminary and actual Fiscal Year 2026 results, released around July 30 and August 4, 2026, indicated a revenue shortfall. The company reported an estimated total revenue of $2,518.1 million for Fiscal Year 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), falling short of analyst expectations of $2,645.11 million.

Show more
Updated on 8/4/2026

Stride (LRN) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Report and Guidance.

Stride's stock performance since April 30, 2026, was significantly influenced by its Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings, reported on April 28, 2026. The company reported an EPS of $1.93, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.21 by 12.67%. Additionally, net income declined 10.9% year-over-year, and Stride narrowed its full-year Fiscal Year 2026 guidance, which likely set a negative tone for investor sentiment as the period began.

2. Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Shortfall Against Expectations.

Stride's preliminary and actual Fiscal Year 2026 results, released around July 30 and August 4, 2026, indicated a revenue shortfall. The company reported an estimated total revenue of $2,518.1 million for Fiscal Year 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), falling short of analyst expectations of $2,645.11 million.

3. Decline in Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 General Education Segment Revenue and Adjusted EPS.

In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 (ending June 30, 2026), Stride experienced a 2.7% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $636.1 million. Notably, its General Education segment's revenue declined by 9.7%, which significantly impacted overall company performance. Furthermore, adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 fell by 7.4%, indicating underlying operational challenges and weakening profitability on an adjusted basis.

4. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.

Multiple analyst actions in late July 2026 contributed to negative investor sentiment. Specifically, on July 31, 2026, BMO Capital maintained a "Hold" rating but reduced its price target for LRN from $102 to $93. Additionally, on July 30, 2026, William Blair downgraded the stock to "Hold". These revisions reflected a more cautious outlook on Stride's future performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.2% change in LRN stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268212026Change
Stock Price ($)97.1684.36-13.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,5362,518-0.7%
Net Income Margin (%)12.2%13.4%10.5%
P/E Multiple13.310.5-21.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)42420.6%
Cumulative Contribution-13.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LRN-13.2% 
Market (SPY)6.5%-31.7%
Sector (XLY)-0.3%-15.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -0.3% change in LRN stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120268212026Change
Stock Price ($)84.6084.36-0.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,5192,5180.0%
Net Income Margin (%)12.7%13.4%6.1%
P/E Multiple11.410.5-8.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)43422.3%
Cumulative Contribution-0.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LRN-0.3% 
Market (SPY)11.0%-2.3%
Sector (XLY)-2.4%4.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -34.2% change in LRN stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120258212026Change
Stock Price ($)128.2384.36-34.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,2862,51810.2%
Net Income Margin (%)13.1%13.4%2.5%
P/E Multiple18.510.5-43.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)43422.4%
Cumulative Contribution-34.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LRN-34.2% 
Market (SPY)22.2%1.4%
Sector (XLY)7.2%10.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 120.8% change in LRN stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 117.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120238212026Change
Stock Price ($)38.2184.36120.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,8092,51839.2%
Net Income Margin (%)6.2%13.4%117.7%
P/E Multiple14.510.5-27.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)42420.7%
Cumulative Contribution120.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LRN120.8% 
Market (SPY)73.2%9.4%
Sector (XLY)38.9%12.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
LRN Return57%-6%90%75%-38%29%296%
Peers Return-2%-2%75%36%16%2%173%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LRN Win Rate42%58%58%83%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%48%60%55%55%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LRN Max Drawdown-24%-33%-19%-25%-64%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-29%-19%-22%-35%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LOPE, DUOL, LAUR, GHC, CVSA. See LRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/21/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventLRNS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-16.6%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven47 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-16.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven57 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-19.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven5 days427 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-22.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.3%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven10 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-49.2%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.7%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven267 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-61.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven157.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven380 days15 days

Compare to LOPE, DUOL, LAUR, GHC, CVSA

In The Past

Stride's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventLRNS&P 500
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-22.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.3%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven10 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-49.2%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.7%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven267 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-61.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven157.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven380 days15 days
2013 Taper Tantrum
  % Loss-28.2%-0.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.3%0.2%
  Time to Breakeven205 days1 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-32.1%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven63 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-56.2%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven128.5%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven560 days1085 days

Compare to LOPE, DUOL, LAUR, GHC, CVSA

In The Past

Stride's stock fell -16.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Stride (LRN)

Stride, Inc. (LRN) is a technology-based education company specializing in providing online curriculum, software systems, and educational services. Its core mission is to facilitate individualized learning, primarily for students from kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12), both within the United States and internationally. The company leverages its technology and professional expertise to support clients in attracting, enrolling, educating, tracking progress, and supporting students in virtual or blended learning environments.

For the K-12 market, Stride offers a comprehensive package for public schools, including curriculum for core subjects like math, English, science, and history. Beyond traditional academics, Stride also provides K-12 career learning products focused on developing skills for industries such as information technology, healthcare, and business, preparing younger students for future career paths.

Expanding beyond K-12, Stride serves adult learners through focused post-secondary career learning programs under brands like Galvanize, Tech Elevator, and MedCerts, equipping them with skills for fields such as data science, software engineering, healthcare, and medical professions. Additionally, Stride offers staffing and talent development services to employers, serving a broad customer base that includes individual consumers, employers, and government agencies.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a few brief analogies for Stride:

  • It's like the "University of Phoenix" for all ages, managing online K-12 schools and adult career training programs.
  • Imagine a digital Kaplan that runs full online public schools for K-12 students alongside vocational tech bootcamps for adults.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • K-12 Online Education Services: Provides proprietary and third-party online curriculum, software systems, and educational services to support individualized learning for K-12 students in virtual or blended public school settings, covering general education subjects like math, English, science, and history.
  • K-12 Career Learning Programs: Offers products and services focused on developing career-ready skills for K-12 students in industries such as information technology, health care, and business.
  • Post-Secondary Career Learning Programs: Delivers skills training for adult learners in fields like data science, software engineering, healthcare, and medical, through brands including Galvanize, Tech Elevator, and MedCerts.
  • Staffing & Talent Development Services: Provides staffing and talent development solutions directly to employers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Stride, Inc. (LRN) serves a diverse customer base, including consumers, employers, and government agencies. As the company does not primarily sell to a single group, its major customers can be categorized as follows:

  • Consumers (Individuals): This category includes individual K-12 students (typically enrolled by their parents or guardians) utilizing Stride's online learning programs directly, as well as adult learners pursuing post-secondary career training programs under brands like Galvanize, Tech Elevator, and MedCerts in fields such as data science, software engineering, healthcare, and medical.
  • Government Agencies: Stride provides an integrated package of systems, services, products, and professional expertise to support virtual or blended public schools. This includes partnerships with public school districts and other government entities for K-12 online curriculum, software systems, and educational services.
  • Employers: The company offers staffing and talent development services to businesses. Additionally, employers may engage Stride for career learning products and services focused on developing skills for their workforce in various industries, including information technology, healthcare, and business.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

James Rhyu, CEO and Board Chair

James Rhyu joined Stride in June 2013 and became CEO in January 2021, bringing over 30 years of operational, financial, and public company experience to the company. Prior to his CEO role, he served as Stride's President of Corporate Strategy, Marketing, and Technology, Chief Financial Officer, and President of Product and Technology. Before his tenure at Stride, Mr. Rhyu served as CFO and Chief Administrative Officer of Match.com, a subsidiary of publicly traded IAC/InterActiveCorp, where he was responsible for overseeing human resources, legal, information technology, operations, and certain international operations and product development. He also held positions as SVP of Finance at Dow Jones & Company and Corporate Controller of Sirius XM Radio Inc. and Graftech International. Mr. Rhyu also spent six years as an auditor with Ernst & Young LLP. He has executed on merger and acquisition opportunities that support Stride's growth strategy.

Donna Blackman, Chief Financial Officer

Donna Blackman was appointed Stride's Chief Financial Officer, effective July 1, 2022, and brings more than 20 years of experience in accounting, finance, and strategic planning. Before becoming CFO, she served as Stride's Chief Accounting Officer and Treasurer for two years. Prior to joining Stride in 2020, Ms. Blackman served as the SVP of Business Operations at BET Networks, overseeing finance, strategy, research, live events, security, facilities, and operations. During her time at BET, she also held roles as SVP and Head of Finance, SVP, Financial Planning and Analysis, and SVP Finance and Controller. Earlier in her career, Ms. Blackman worked for Marriott International and KPMG in various leadership roles in accounting and finance.

Deb Hannah, Chief Marketing Officer

Deb Hannah, Stride's Chief Marketing Officer, contributes over 25 years of experience in marketing, brand development, and digital strategy to the company. She leads various product and integrated marketing initiatives, creative strategy, website performance, customer relationship management (CRM), and data analytics at Stride. Before joining Stride, Ms. Hannah served as Senior Vice President of Marketing at Shoe Carnival, where she was responsible for the broader marketing organization, e-commerce, store design management, and corporate communications.

Todd Goldthwaite, Managing Director

Todd Goldthwaite, Managing Director, has over 25 years of experience in technological innovation, marketing, operations management, and enterprise sales. At Stride, he manages a growing number of portfolio companies and leads the company's enrollment and customer service operations. Prior to his current role, Mr. Goldthwaite served as Stride's Chief Marketing Officer and also as Senior Vice President of School Services for Stride's online public schools, where he worked to amplify best practices and improve academic performance, teacher effectiveness, and student retention.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Stride, Inc. (LRN) primarily revolve around ongoing legal and regulatory challenges, significant operational and technological failures impacting enrollment, and intense competition within the online education market.

  1. Legal and Regulatory Scrutiny Regarding Enrollment and Compliance: Stride is facing federal securities investigations and multiple class-action lawsuits. These actions stem from allegations that the company engaged in fraudulent practices, including inflating enrollment numbers by retaining "ghost students" (students who never officially started or were absent for extended periods) to secure state funding and increase profit margins. Additionally, there are claims of employing insufficiently licensed teachers and prioritizing profits over compliance and educational quality. These allegations have been described as a "credibility crisis" and have led to substantial drops in Stride's stock price. The company has previously settled similar cases.
  2. Operational Failures and Enrollment Challenges Due to Technology Issues: Stride has experienced significant operational disruptions, most notably from severe, undisclosed issues with a critical technology platform upgrade. This platform failure allegedly blocked access for an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 enrolled students, resulting in "poor customer experience," higher withdrawal rates, and lower conversion rates. This operational setback directly impacted the company's enrollment figures and forced a dramatic deceleration in its sales growth forecast for fiscal year 2026. The revelation of these issues contributed to a single-day stock price decline of over 50%.
  3. Intense Competition and Shifting Market Dynamics in Online Education: Stride operates in a highly competitive online education market, facing rivals such as Pearson's Connections Academy in the K-12 sector. The broader demand for education is evolving, shifting from traditional degrees to skills-based learning and from physical campuses to online platforms. While Stride has diversified into career-aligned education, it still faces challenges in attracting and retaining students across its K-12 and adult learning segments, with some adult career learning programs experiencing enrollment drops due to changes in the job market. The company also contends with varying public perceptions of online learning quality and potential policy shifts impacting virtual schooling.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The rapid advancement and widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) that can offer highly personalized learning experiences, generate dynamic educational content, provide real-time tutoring, and automate instructional tasks, posing a direct threat to Stride's business model for online K-12 curriculum, career learning, and adult education programs.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Stride, Inc. (LRN) operates in several addressable markets related to education and workforce development. The market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:

K-12 Online Education

  • The global K-12 online education market was valued at approximately USD 171.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2,248.36 billion by 2033.
  • The U.S. K-12 Education Technology (EdTech) market is projected to be valued at USD 94.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 273.2 billion by 2034.

Career Learning, Post-Secondary, and Adult Education

  • The global adult education market size was USD 373.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 784.38 billion by 2032.
  • The U.S. e-learning market exceeded US$ 128.37 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to US$ 278.27 billion by 2033.
  • U.S. companies invested over $90 billion in employee training and development in 2023, with a growing emphasis on digital learning platforms.

Staffing and Talent Development Services

  • The U.S. staffing market had a revenue of $184 billion in 2024.
  • The global talent management market was valued at USD 12.85 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 30.06 billion by 2031.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Stride, Inc. (LRN) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Growth in Student Enrollments: Stride's primary driver of revenue growth is expected to come from expanding its student enrollments across both its K-12 General Education and Career Learning segments. The company has seen consistent increases in total enrollments, with significant growth in recent fiscal years.
  2. Expansion and Strong Performance of Career Learning Programs: The Career Learning segment is a particularly strong growth engine, focusing on developing skills for in-demand industries such as information technology, healthcare, and business. This segment has consistently shown significant revenue and enrollment boosts and is expected to continue capitalizing on the strong demand for career-focused educational alternatives for both middle/high school students and adult learners.
  3. Leveraging the Favorable Market for Online Education and School Choice: The ongoing demand for alternative education solutions and school choice remains a fundamental tailwind for Stride. Families continue to seek out online learning options, positioning Stride, as a market leader, to benefit from this growing trend in the online K-12 market and beyond.
  4. Investments in Technology Platforms to Enhance User Experience and Scalability: Stride is actively investing in new technology platforms to replace legacy systems, aiming to improve the overall customer experience and ensure scalability. While initial integration challenges temporarily impacted enrollments in Q1 2026, these issues have been largely resolved, and ongoing optimization of these platforms is expected to support future enrollment growth and operational efficiency.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Stride, Inc. authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $500 million in November 2025, which is valid until October 31, 2026.
  • During the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company repurchased $88.6 million in shares.
  • The $500 million repurchase program represented approximately 18% of the company's market capitalization at the time of its announcement.

Share Issuance

  • Information regarding the dollar amount of shares issued by Stride, Inc. specifically for capital raising purposes over the last 3-5 years is not available in the provided search results.

Inbound Investments

  • No information is available regarding large inbound investments made in Stride, Inc. by third-parties such as strategic partners or private equity firms over the last 3-5 years.

Outbound Investments

  • No information is available regarding specific strategic investments made by Stride, Inc. in other companies (e.g., acquisitions or significant equity stakes) over the last 3-5 years. However, the company is committed to balancing investments in organic growth and potential M&A transactions.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were $60 million.
  • For fiscal year 2026, Stride, Inc. expects capital expenditures to be in the range of $70 million to $80 million.
  • The capital expenditures are primarily focused on investments in upgrading learning and technology platforms, new products and services, career platforms and programs, and artificial intelligence-related initiatives.

Better Bets vs. Stride (LRN)

Peer Outperformance in Education Services

LRN has outperformed 69% of its 13 Education Services peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is CVSA. Education Services ranks 1st of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Education Services constituents that LRN has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
17%
of 18 industry peers · -49.7% return
3Y
50%
of 14 industry peers · 107.5% return
5Y
69%
of 13 industry peers · 147.4% return
Education Services peers with revenue growth within 4pp of LRN's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
LRN Stride 11.2% 10.5x -49.7%107.5%147.4%
CVSA Covista 10.4% 17.9x -0.4%210.3%268.3% +121pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Education Services is LRN's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services ← 14 -15.9%107.5%71.8% LINC 323% · CVSA 268% · UTI 245%
Homebuilding 18 1.5%35.5%53.8% GRBK 186% · TOL 161% · PHM 157%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 20.5%55.3%18.7% RCL 284% · MAR 183% · HLT 172%
Automotive Retail 18 -11.6%3.7%16.1% MUSA 273% · PAG 187% · ORLY 120%
Specialty Stores 7 0.2%33.6%11.2% DKS 95% · ASO 29% · SIG 23%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -13.7%1.6%9.1% HD 15% · LOW 14% · HVT 9%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -5.2%-23.6%5.1% BRAG 1014% · MCRI 118% · RSI 114%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -8.8%16.9%-3.3% HRB 149% · FTDR 99% · SCI 41%
Restaurants 34 -4.3%-4.7%-6.2% EAT 389% · CAKE 201% · RAVE 168%
Distributors 4 -5.1%-23.8%-8.4% ARMK 164% · GPC 25% · LKQ -42%
Home Furnishings 4 2.6%31.0%-12.4% SGI 60% · LZB 7% · MHK -32%
Footwear 9 69.5%45.3%-14.0% WEYS 151% · SHOO 28% · DECK 27%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -10.0%-6.5%-31.5% MOD 1447% · GTX 296% · STRT 106%
Leisure Products 13 -0.7%-19.6%-31.7% GOLF 86% · HAS 19% · MCFT 4%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 6.3%-1.6%-35.1% TPR 265% · RL 254% · ELA 236%
Apparel Retail 25 0.9%6.0%-38.8% ANF 187% · DXLG 187% · ROST 105%
Leisure Facilities 12 -11.6%-7.7%-39.4% OSW 190% · JAKK 118% · ESCA 12%
Household Appliances 18 8.3%38.2%-39.9% KEQU 177% · FLXS 151% · HBB 121%
Broadline Retail 15 9.4%12.2%-50.1% DDS 299% · AMZN 62% · EBAY 55%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -14.5%5.5%-54.3% BBY -4% · GME -54% · UPBD -60%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -68.2%-67.3%-68.6% GM 88% · TSLA 60% · F 56%
Consumer Electronics 11 -15.7%-22.1%-74.9% AXIL 2091% · GRMN 92% · TBCH -53%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -26.7%-42.8%-77.2% BBW 218% · TLF 105% · WINA 92%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LRNLOPEDUOLLAURGHCCVSAMedian
NameStride Grand Ca.Duolingo Laureate.Graham Covista  
Mkt Price84.36147.46146.1337.461,166.93132.35139.24
Mkt Cap3.63.96.85.35.04.54.7
Rev LTM2,5181,1421,1451,8305,0681,9541,892
Op Inc LTM451317157447288390353
FCF LTM355242398287248393321
FCF 3Y Avg315243310231275309292
CFO LTM434279431407327470419
CFO 3Y Avg382282333315357368345

Growth & Margins

LRNLOPEDUOLLAURGHCCVSAMedian
NameStride Grand Ca.Duolingo Laureate.Graham Covista  
Rev Chg LTM4.7%7.0%29.4%17.9%4.8%9.3%8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.2%7.2%37.4%10.6%6.4%10.4%10.5%
Rev Chg Q-2.7%6.7%18.3%17.5%7.1%9.7%8.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%1.5%4.2%5.3%1.7%2.3%2.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM7.4%9.4%86.1%18.7%-3.5%13.0%11.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg42.1%10.3%131.2%13.5%16.4%22.1%19.2%
Op Mgn LTM17.9%27.8%13.7%24.4%5.7%19.9%18.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg15.9%27.2%9.6%23.7%5.2%18.4%17.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.2%-0.5%0.4%0.1%0.5%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM17.2%24.4%37.6%22.3%6.4%24.1%23.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%26.4%37.4%19.0%7.4%20.5%19.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.1%21.2%34.7%15.7%4.9%20.1%17.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.4%22.7%34.7%13.9%5.7%17.3%15.6%

Valuation

LRNLOPEDUOLLAURGHCCVSAMedian
NameStride Grand Ca.Duolingo Laureate.Graham Covista  
Mkt Cap3.63.96.85.35.04.54.7
P/S1.43.46.02.91.02.32.6
P/Op Inc7.912.243.411.817.311.612.0
P/EBIT7.812.243.411.66.511.711.6
P/E10.517.216.616.49.217.916.5
P/CFO8.213.815.812.915.29.613.4
Total Yield9.5%5.8%6.0%6.1%11.5%5.6%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.6%5.6%3.8%6.6%6.8%8.4%6.7%
D/E0.20.00.00.10.30.20.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-0.20.10.00.1-0.0

Returns

LRNLOPEDUOLLAURGHCCVSAMedian
NameStride Grand Ca.Duolingo Laureate.Graham Covista  
1M Rtn0.2%7.9%22.3%3.8%1.8%18.1%5.8%
3M Rtn-4.8%-5.9%37.1%13.1%5.8%5.8%5.8%
6M Rtn2.2%-6.3%29.4%14.1%7.0%37.0%10.5%
12M Rtn-49.7%-28.1%-57.7%42.2%10.6%-0.4%-14.3%
3Y Rtn107.5%30.1%12.4%179.4%108.5%210.3%108.0%
1M Excs Rtn-5.6%2.3%17.5%-1.2%-1.5%11.4%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-6.8%-9.0%35.3%10.5%3.6%3.6%3.6%
6M Excs Rtn-8.9%-17.3%18.3%3.0%-4.1%25.9%-0.5%
12M Excs Rtn-68.3%-46.8%-76.9%23.8%-10.0%-18.6%-32.7%
3Y Excs Rtn36.3%-38.2%-62.0%102.4%31.2%142.3%33.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Educational platform to deliver proprietary and third-party curriculum, software systems and2,4052,0401,837  
Adult   9156
General Education   1,2741,280
Middle - High School   321201
Total2,4052,0401,8371,6871,537


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$84.36 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.6 
First Trading Date12/13/2007 
Distance from 52W High-50.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$87.16$82.34
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-3.2%2.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility56.1%69.4%
Downside Capture-84.060.65
Upside Capture-95.51-77.72
Correlation (SPY)-33.1%-0.7%
LRN Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-3.16-1.92-1.61-0.140.040.32
Up Beta-8.79-5.75-4.69-1.030.060.60
Down Beta-0.950.190.130.410.650.49
Up Capture-256%-177%-128%-5%-31%4%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days11223367135400
Down Capture-197%-141%-132%4%-15%-38%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days11213059117348

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LRN
LRN-48.5%69.3%-0.53-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.3%19.6%0.108.0%
Equity (SPY)21.1%12.9%1.22-0.6%
Gold (GLD)37.5%28.8%1.10-3.1%
Commodities (DBC)43.2%20.2%1.66-4.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.9%13.8%0.6425.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-35.4%43.5%-0.881.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LRN
LRN18.7%51.8%0.55-
Sector ETF (XLY)6.2%24.1%0.2216.5%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.2%0.5715.9%
Gold (GLD)20.6%18.6%0.90-2.7%
Commodities (DBC)10.4%19.6%0.41-0.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.3%18.9%0.0216.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.1%52.7%0.367.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LRN
LRN21.8%49.5%0.60-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.3%22.2%0.5115.9%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7215.3%
Gold (GLD)12.7%16.2%0.64-1.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%18.0%0.364.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2013.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.2%66.1%1.020.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 7152026-1.5%
Average Daily Volume0.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7
Basic Shares Quantity42.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares15.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/13/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20262.6%-1.7% 
4/28/20262.8%1.3%-0.7%
1/27/202614.2%18.4%18.5%
10/28/2025-54.4%-53.7%-58.4%
8/5/202515.7%22.7%26.5%
4/29/2025-0.2%10.9%4.4%
1/28/20256.0%13.2%11.2%
10/22/202439.1%41.2%59.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171715
# Negative889
Median Positive9.3%13.2%16.4%
Median Negative-4.3%-11.1%-10.0%
Max Positive39.1%41.2%59.4%
Max Negative-54.4%-53.7%-58.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20262.6%-1.7% 
4/28/20262.8%1.3%-0.7%
1/27/202614.2%18.4%18.5%
10/28/2025-54.4%-53.7%-58.4%
8/5/202515.7%22.7%26.5%
4/29/2025-0.2%10.9%4.4%
1/28/20256.0%13.2%11.2%
10/22/202439.1%41.2%59.4%
8/6/20249.3%15.3%13.8%
4/23/20248.6%14.7%19.6%
1/23/2024-2.0%-3.2%-10.0%
10/24/202318.0%23.6%32.1%
8/15/20234.6%6.2%16.4%
4/25/202313.1%9.3%9.0%
1/24/202327.7%34.2%35.2%
10/25/2022-29.3%-27.1%-23.3%
8/9/2022-12.6%-16.2%-8.3%
4/19/202214.7%4.2%5.1%
1/25/202225.0%33.6%23.6%
10/19/20213.1%0.1%5.5%
8/10/20217.8%10.6%10.4%
4/20/2021-1.7%-0.5%-9.2%
1/26/2021-4.3%5.1%-3.5%
10/26/20202.5%-16.4%-19.1%
8/11/2020-4.3%-5.9%-35.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171715
# Negative889
Median Positive9.3%13.2%16.4%
Median Negative-4.3%-11.1%-10.0%
Max Positive39.1%41.2%59.4%
Max Negative-54.4%-53.7%-58.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-K
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202501/28/202610-Q
09/30/202510/29/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-K
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202401/29/202510-Q
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-K
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202301/24/202410-Q
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202308/16/202310-K
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202201/25/202310-Q
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-K
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202501/28/202610-Q
09/30/202510/29/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-K
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202401/29/202510-Q
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-K
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202301/24/202410-Q
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202308/16/202310-K
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202201/25/202310-Q
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202208/10/202210-K
03/31/202204/20/202210-Q
12/31/202101/26/202210-Q
09/30/202110/20/202110-Q
06/30/202108/11/202110-K
03/31/202104/21/202110-Q
12/31/202001/27/202110-Q
09/30/202010/27/202010-Q
06/30/202008/12/202010-K
03/31/202004/28/202010-Q
12/31/201901/28/202010-Q
09/30/201910/23/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 8/20/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Rhyu, James JeahoCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICERDirectSell8202025162.6613,9612,270,896114,895,379Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Rhyu, James JeahoCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICERDirectSell8202025162.6613,9612,270,896114,895,379Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 22, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC$48.5 Mil15.9%12ADD +122.6%13F
Impactive Capital LP$98.2 Mil7.1%10New13F
Praetorian PR LLC$17.6 Mil6.4%12ADD +53.8%13F
Khrom Capital Management LLC$66.1 Mil6.0%14ADD +109.4%13F
Simcoe Capital Management, LLC$26.7 Mil4.9%14New13F
Voss Capital, LP$74.9 Mil4.3%39ADD +514.7%13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$23.1 Mil3.6%14ADD +33.7%13F
Montanaro Asset Management Ltd$11.0 Mil3.3%42New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Impactive Capital LP$98.2 Mil7.1%10New13F
Simcoe Capital Management, LLC$26.7 Mil4.9%14New13F
Montanaro Asset Management Ltd$11.0 Mil3.3%42New13F
Voss Capital, LP$74.9 Mil4.3%39ADD +514.7%13F
Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC$48.5 Mil15.9%12ADD +122.6%13F
Khrom Capital Management LLC$66.1 Mil6.0%14ADD +109.4%13F
Praetorian PR LLC$17.6 Mil6.4%12ADD +53.8%13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$23.1 Mil3.6%14ADD +33.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Ophir Asset Management Pty Ltd$34.9 Mil3.9%32Exited13F
Findell Capital Management LLC$5.8 Mil1.9%15Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Impactive Capital LP$98.2 Mil7.1%10New13F
Voss Capital, LP$74.9 Mil4.3%39ADD +514.7%13F
Khrom Capital Management LLC$66.1 Mil6.0%14ADD +109.4%13F
Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC$48.5 Mil15.9%12ADD +122.6%13F
Simcoe Capital Management, LLC$26.7 Mil4.9%14New13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$23.1 Mil3.6%14ADD +33.7%13F
Praetorian PR LLC$17.6 Mil6.4%12ADD +53.8%13F
Montanaro Asset Management Ltd$11.0 Mil3.3%42New13F

LRN Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

A new CEO was appointed in July 2026 with a clear mandate to fix operational problems that led to a contract loss and stalling growth. While near-term indicators are soft, a strong net-cash balance sheet and a 9.3% total shareholder yield provide support during this turnaround. The story hinges on the new leadership's ability to stabilize the core business.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Contractual Services

(Number of K-12 Enrollments) x (Average Revenue Per Enrollment) Operating leverage achieved by scaling enrollments across its technology platform while effectively managing instructional costs as a percentage of revenue.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can a new CEO fix operational issues to restore enrollment growth?

Evidence points to a potential turnaround, with a new leader focused on improving student outcomes to stabilize the core contracted revenue base.

Mechanism: Success in improving service quality should lead to better contract renewal rates and renewed enrollment growth, leveraging a model with a 17.9% TTM operating margin. A strong balance sheet funds a 9.3% total yield while the turnaround unfolds.
Supporting Evidence:
  • A new CEO was appointed after the board determined a change was needed for Stride to reach its potential.
  • The company has a strong balance sheet with $958 million in cash and short-term investments.
  • The high-growth Career Learning segment saw revenue increase 19.1% in fiscal 2026.
  • Management expects revenue per enrollment to be 'relatively flat to up slightly' in fiscal 2027.
  • The total shareholder yield from buybacks is 9.3%, fully funded by free cash flow.
PRIMARY RISK
Systemic Performance Issues

Operational problems may be deeper than disclosed, leading to further contract non-renewals and continued declines in the core General Education segment, which saw revenue fall 2.1%.

Mechanism: Another material contract loss due to performance issues would confirm the problem is systemic, not isolated.
Supporting Evidence:
  • The company lost its contract with Roscoe Independent School District due to performance issues.
  • Latest-quarter revenue declined 2.7% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration.
  • New school year applications are currently tracking 'slightly behind' the prior year.
  • Platform implementation issues previously resulted in higher-than-expected student withdrawal rates.
  • Accounts receivable grew 18.8% in the latest quarter, far outpacing the revenue decline.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Total Enrollment GrowthDeceleratingThe year-over-year growth in student enrollments has sharply decelerated over the past four quarters, turning negative in the most recent period. This follows a period of platform implementation issues and a strategic decision to limit in-year enrollment growth to focus on program quality, as noted in prior earnings calls.
Revenue per EnrollmentStagnantRevenue per enrollment, a proxy for pricing and mix, showed modest growth for the full year but appears to have weakened in the final quarter. Management commentary points to a supportive overall funding environment for FY2027, but cautions that state mix and yield will impact the metric, guiding for flattish performance.
Total Average Enrollments (Full Year)243.9K (Fiscal Year 2026)Indicates the overall scale and demand for the company's full-service K-12 programs. Growth in this metric is the primary driver of revenue.
Career Learning Enrollments (Full Year)109.7K (Fiscal Year 2026)Measures the traction of the company's strategic focus on career-readiness education, which is its fastest-growing K-12 segment.
Core Investment Debate

New CEO Turnaround vs. Deep-Seated Operational Failures

BULL VIEW

Bulls believe the July 2026 CEO change is the necessary catalyst to fix solvable execution issues, allowing the company's scale and regulatory moat to reassert themselves and stabilize the business.

CORE TENSION

Can a new CEO's focus on student outcomes reverse the trend of contract losses and negative revenue growth (-2.7% last quarter)?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The evidence is balanced but tilting toward the turnaround case. The board's decisive action and the new CEO's clear mandate provide a path, but leading indicators like applications remain soft.

BEAR VIEW

Bears argue the recent contract loss and platform failures signal systemic quality issues that a leadership change alone cannot fix, risking further client defections and eroding the business's core value.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
in October
FY2027 Financial Guidance Release
Watch: Company to provide formal enrollment and financial guidance for fiscal year 2027.
10/27/2026 - 11/3/2026
Negative Peer Read-Across
Watch: Peer commentary on enrollment trends, the K-12 funding environment, and competitive pressures in online learning.
on 10/28/2026
Peer CVSA Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Covista (CVSA) is scheduled to report earnings.
on 10/28/2026
Peer LAUR Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Laureate Education (LAUR) is scheduled to report earnings.
on September 1, 2027
Convertible Notes Mature
Watch: The company's Convertible Senior Notes are scheduled to mature.
October 31, 2027
Share Repurchase Authorization Expires
Watch: The company's current share repurchase authorization is set to expire.
in October
Weak FY2027 Guidance
Watch: Full-year guidance for revenue, enrollment growth, and operating margins.
No set date
CEO Transition Fallout
Watch: Announcements of a strategic review, restructuring plans, or material changes to long-term financial targets.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-08-04
Q4 and Full-Year FY26 Results
Details: Stride reported full-year 2026 revenue of $2,518.1 million. Fourth quarter revenue was $636,064, a decrease of 2.7% from the prior year.
+3.1%
$80.10 -> $82.58
2026-07-30
CEO Succession Announced
Details: The company announced an immediate CEO succession, appointing independent board member Robert Knowling as CEO and reporting select preliminary fiscal year 2026 financial results.
-17.8%
$97.71 -> $80.29
2026-05-22
Tallo Platform Wins Award
Details: Tallo, the company's free digital career platform, earned a Gold Stevie® Award in the Career and Workforce Readiness Solution category at the 24th Annual American Business Awards®.
+2.1%
$87.65 -> $89.48
2026-04-28
Q3 Earnings Report Reaction
Details: The stock had a negative two-day reaction of -3.0% around the earnings call dated 2026-04-28.
-2.7%
$97.79 -> $95.16
2026-03-04
Stock Plunges After Guidance Cut
Details: A news report noted that shares plunged over 50% after fiscal 2026 guidance was cut due to platform upgrade issues, compressing its EPS multiple.
-0.4%
$86.65 -> $86.32
2026-02-18
Board Investigation Announced
Details: A national plaintiffs' law firm announced an investigation into Stride's Board of Directors for potential breaches of fiduciary duties owed to the company and its shareholders.
-1.0%
$83.78 -> $82.94
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: LRN trades at roughly 50% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (3.7x the market), around the 77th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
LAUR - Laureate Education
Peer-Group Diversification

Laureate Education offers exposure to post-secondary education with higher recent revenue growth of 17.9% and stronger TTM operating margins of 24.4%, compared to Stride's 4.7% and 17.9% respectively.

Core Thesis: A play on a different segment of the education market with superior current growth and profitability metrics.
DUOL - Duolingo
High-Growth Tech Play

Duolingo is a technology-first, consumer-facing business with a different model, evidenced by its 72.7% gross margin and 35.5% TTM revenue growth, offering a higher-growth profile without direct exposure to government funding risks.

Core Thesis: An investment in a fast-growing, high-margin education technology platform focused on supplemental learning.
How Is The Market Pricing LRN?

A publicly-funded education services operator navigating a turnaround under a new CEO, focused on improving student outcomes to stabilize its core 'school-as-a-service' contracts.

Stride operates a scaled, publicly-funded virtual school business. After a period of operational challenges and significant stock underperformance, a new CEO was appointed in August 2026 with a mandate to improve student outcomes, which is the ultimate measure of success and key to contract retention. The company has a strong balance sheet and is actively repurchasing shares, but faces decelerating growth and the recent loss of a school contract in Texas. The core investment thesis now hinges on the new leadership's ability to execute, stabilize operations, and demonstrate improved academic performance to secure its long-term revenue base.

What will confirm the thesis

News of new state approvals for virtual schools, favorable changes in state funding formulas, contract renewals or new school partnerships, and data showing improved student academic performance.

What will damage the thesis

Further contract non-renewals, legislative actions that cap enrollments or cut funding for virtual charter schools, or continued declines in enrollment growth.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term fluctuations in quarterly enrollment due to seasonal patterns or minor marketing spend adjustments.

Repricing Catalyst

The recent appointment of a new CEO, who has articulated a clear focus on improving student outcomes to drive long-term growth and shareholder value.

What LRN Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
LRN Evolution: Price Return by Era
2000-2019 · Founding and K-12 Expansion
Founded in 2000, the company focused on providing online K-12 education, starting with early grades and expanding to a full K-12 offering. It grew by adding new school clients in additional states and opening online private schools.
2020-Present · Career and Adult Learning Expansion
+318%
In 2020, the company significantly expanded its Career Learning focus by acquiring three adult learning companies: Galvanize, Tech Elevator, and MedCerts. This marked a strategic push into lifelong learning and providing skills-based training for high-demand industries, complementing its core K-12 business.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. Earnings history is neutral. The market reaction and subsequent drift do not give a clear directional signal.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Pullback in Uptrend · Golden Cross
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/21/2026