Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $116.33 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $116.33Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OLLI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Jefferies Downgrade and Industry-Wide Inventory Concerns
On February 3, 2025, Jefferies downgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet to 'Hold' from 'Buy', lowering its price target from $125 to $111. This downgrade was based on a warning that historical growth cycles where inventories surpass sales growth tend to result in a decline in gross margins and stock returns, indicating a challenging environment in the U.S. consumer discretionary sector due to rising inventories.
2. Decline in U.S. Consumer Confidence
On September 30, 2025, Ollie's stock experienced a decline following a report indicating a drop in U.S. consumer confidence. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index reached its lowest level since April 2025, primarily due to a significant deterioration in consumers' outlook on the current economic situation and the job market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OLLI Return | 25% | -37% | -8% | 62% | 45% | 9% | 83% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 19% | -8% | -5% | -29% | 23% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OLLI Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 42% | 83% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 53% | 40% | 42% | 28% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OLLI Max Drawdown | -48% | -43% | -26% | -0% | -10% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -9% | -23% | -26% | -37% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TGT, DG, DLTR, FIVE, BGO. See OLLI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OLLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1002 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 120 days |
Compare to TGT, DG, DLTR, FIVE, BGO
In The Past
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock fell -64.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -64.2% loss requires a 179.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OLLI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 08312021 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -40.0% | -23.6% | -47.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 08312021 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -40.0% | -23.6% | -47.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ollie's Bargain Outlet
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 112.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.4 |
| Rev LTM | 11,777 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,453 |
| FCF LTM | 1,690 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,008 |
| CFO LTM | 2,923 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,583 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.4 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -25.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumables | 636 | 515 | 347 | ||
| Home | 615 | 580 | 697 | ||
| Other | 459 | 407 | 392 | 490 | 393 |
| Seasonal | 394 | 325 | 317 | ||
| Bed and bath | 197 | 148 | |||
| Books and stationery | 137 | 121 | |||
| Electronics | 110 | 93 | |||
| Floor coverings | 154 | 118 | |||
| Food | 184 | 152 | |||
| Health and beauty aids | 139 | 80 | |||
| Housewares | 284 | 211 | |||
| Toys | 112 | 92 | |||
| Total | 2,103 | 1,827 | 1,753 | 1,809 | 1,408 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6032025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3262025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3272024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3242023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3252022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12072021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Helm Robert F | EVP/CFO | 10272025 | Sell | 120.08 | 367 | 44,069 | 437,211 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |