Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $94.26 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $94.26Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.8% | Key risksOLLI key risks include its business model's dependence on sourcing closeout merchandise, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.8% |
| Key risksOLLI key risks include its business model's dependence on sourcing closeout merchandise, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Q4 2025 Revenue Slightly Missed Expectations.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings on March 12, 2026. While the company exceeded analyst expectations for Earnings Per Share (EPS) with $1.39 against a consensus of $1.38, its revenue of $779.26 million fell slightly short of the anticipated $783.72 million. Despite a year-over-year net sales increase of 16.8%, this minor revenue miss, representing a $4.46 million shortfall, likely contributed to investor caution, as the stock experienced an 11.1% decline in the 13 days following the earnings release, after an initial post-earnings gain.
2. Analyst Price Target Adjustments Reflecting Re-evaluation of Growth.
Following the Q4 2025 earnings announcement on March 12, 2026, and the company's fiscal year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.40-$4.50, some analysts adjusted their price targets downwards. For instance, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for OLLI to $120 from $130, and Piper Sandler reduced its target to $128 from $140 on March 13, 2026. These revisions, even amidst several upgrades from other firms (e.g., Wells Fargo and Jefferies raising targets to $130), suggest a re-evaluation of the company's growth trajectory or valuation multiples by some analysts, contributing to the stock's overall decline from previous highs around December 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.0% change in OLLI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.61 | 94.25 | -14.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,537 | 2,649 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.1 | 24.0 | -20.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLLI | -14.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 15.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.5% | 20.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.6% change in OLLI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 128.40 | 94.25 | -26.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,441 | 2,649 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.9 | 24.0 | -35.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLLI | -26.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.6% | 27.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.0% change in OLLI stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 116.36 | 94.25 | -19.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,272 | 2,649 | 16.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 9.1% | 3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.7 | 24.0 | -32.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLLI | -19.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 35.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 18.6% | 38.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 62.7% change in OLLI stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.94 | 94.25 | 62.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,827 | 2,649 | 45.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.6% | 9.1% | 61.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.0 | 24.0 | -31.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 62 | 61 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 62.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLLI | 62.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 59.3% | 33.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OLLI Return | -37% | -8% | 62% | 45% | -0% | -18% | 10% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -3% | -1% | -1% | 39% | 3% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OLLI Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 83% | 50% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 48% | 53% | 48% | 63% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OLLI Max Drawdown | -43% | -26% | -0% | -10% | -12% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -32% | -30% | -24% | -15% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, BURL, DG, DLTR. See OLLI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OLLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,002 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 120 days |
Compare to TJX, ROST, BURL, DG, DLTR
In The Past
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock fell -64.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -64.2% loss requires a 179.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are brief analogies for Ollie's Bargain Outlet:
- A Big Lots, but specializing in an ever-changing assortment of brand-name closeouts and opportunistic buys.
- Like a TJ Maxx or Marshalls, but for a constantly rotating inventory of everything from electronics and food to home goods and toys, all at deeply discounted prices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Housewares: A variety of goods for the home, including kitchenware, small appliances, and home decor items.
- Bed and Bath: Products such as linens, towels, and other items for bedrooms and bathrooms.
- Food: Packaged and non-perishable food items, often including snacks, beverages, and pantry staples.
- Floor Coverings: Products like rugs, mats, and other materials used to cover floors.
- Health and Beauty Aids: Personal care products, cosmetics, and over-the-counter health items.
- Books and Stationery: A selection of reading materials, writing supplies, and office products.
- Toys: Various playthings and games for children.
- Electronics: Consumer electronic devices and accessories.
- Hardware: Tools, fasteners, and other items for home improvement and repairs.
- Candy: Confectionery products and sweet treats.
- Clothing: Apparel for various ages and purposes.
- Sporting Goods: Equipment and accessories for sports and outdoor activities.
- Pet and Lawn & Garden Products: Supplies for pets and items for garden maintenance and outdoor living.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) operates primarily as a retailer with physical stores, selling a wide variety of brand-name merchandise directly to individual consumers. Therefore, its major customers are not other companies, but rather the general public.
Based on its business model as a "bargain outlet" offering "Good Stuff Cheap!" and "Real Brands Real Cheap!", Ollie's serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Value-Driven Consumers: This category includes individuals and families who prioritize cost savings and actively seek out discounted branded merchandise for household goods, groceries, seasonal items, and other everyday needs. They are looking to purchase quality products at a lower price point than traditional retailers.
- Opportunistic and Treasure-Hunt Shoppers: These customers enjoy the "discovery" aspect of shopping at a discount retailer with an ever-changing inventory. They are often browsing for unique finds, unexpected deals, or specific brand-name items that may only be available for a limited time, appreciating the "Real Brands! Real Bargains" experience.
- Budget-Conscious Households: This broad category encompasses households looking to furnish or restock their homes, acquire entertainment items, or purchase essentials across a wide range of categories (from home decor and kitchenware to pet supplies and personal care) while adhering to a strict budget. They rely on Ollie's for a diverse selection of products at affordable prices.
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Eric van der Valk, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
Mr. van der Valk has served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a Director since February 2025. He joined Ollie's in May 2021 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer and was promoted to President in June 2024. Before joining Ollie's, he was President and Chief Operating Officer of Christmas Tree Shops ("CTS"), a discount retailer, a role he assumed in 2019 after joining CTS in 2005. Prior to CTS, Mr. van der Valk held various financial and merchandising roles at May Department Stores' Filene's and Robinsons-May divisions, and served as head of store operations for KB Toys. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Brightmore Brands, a privately held thrift store chain.
Robert Helm, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Helm has been Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since June 2024. He joined Ollie's as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in October 2022. In his current role, he also oversees Real Estate and Information Technology. Prior to Ollie's, Mr. Helm served as Chief Financial Officer of The Children's Place, Inc. (TCP) starting in 2021, after joining TCP in 2016 as Vice President and Controller. His previous experience includes finance leadership roles at retailers such as Ralph Lauren, rag & bone, and FreshDirect. Mr. Helm began his career in public accounting and auditing, including at KPMG, and is a Certified Public Accountant.
John Swygert, Executive Chairman of the Board
Mr. Swygert has served as Executive Chairman of the Board since February 2025. He previously held the roles of Chief Executive Officer and President of Ollie's from December 2019 to February 2025. Prior to that, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer from January 2018 to December 2019. Mr. Swygert joined Ollie's in March 2004 as Chief Financial Officer and was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2011. He has over 32 years of experience as a finance professional in discount retail. Before Ollie's, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Factory 2-U Stores, Inc., where he held various finance positions from 1992. He also worked for PETCO Animal Supplies, Inc. in Business Development and Financial Analysis and has served on the Board of Directors of Truck Hero Holdings, Inc., a privately held company, since 2018.
Chris Zender, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Zender has been Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer since June 2024. Before joining Ollie's, Mr. Zender was President and Chief Operating Officer of Variety Stores (Variety Wholesalers). He was promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer in 2023, having joined Variety Wholesalers in 2013 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. His prior experience includes serving as a Regional Project Support Manager for Home Depot from 2011 to 2013, President of K&G Fashion Superstore, and various operating roles at Value City Department Stores and CR Anthony Company.
James Comitale, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary
Mr. Comitale has served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel since October 2021, and Corporate Secretary since June 2022. Prior to joining Ollie's, Mr. Comitale spent 23 years at Rite Aid Corporation, where he advanced from Associate Counsel to Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) are primarily centered around its unique business model and aggressive growth strategy.
- Supply Consistency and Sourcing Pipeline: Ollie's business is built on its ability to acquire "closeout" merchandise and excess inventory from other retailers and manufacturers. The biggest operational risk and core challenge is the very nature of their sourcing pipeline. If there are fewer retail failures or if manufacturers become more adept at managing inventory, the "deal flow" of discounted products could diminish, directly impacting the company's ability to stock its stores with compelling bargains.
- Execution Risk from Rapid Expansion: Ollie's is in an aggressive growth phase, with plans for significant new store openings (e.g., 85 stores for fiscal 2025 and 75 stores in 2026). This rapid expansion introduces execution risks such as increased pre-opening expenses, potential strain on the supply chain, and the risk of cannibalization, where new stores might draw sales away from existing locations.
- Macroeconomic Sensitivity and Consumer Spending: While discount retailers can be seen as "recession-resistant," Ollie's is still sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. A severe economic downturn that impacts the discretionary spending of its target demographic (households in the $40k–$55k income range) could reduce demand for its non-essential "treasure hunt" items. External factors such as tariffs, inflation, and volatile consumer behavior also pose risks to profitability and operational stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rapid emergence and growth of ultra-low-cost, direct-to-consumer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Temu, Shein) represents a clear emerging threat. These platforms offer a vast array of inexpensive general merchandise, directly competing for the value-conscious consumer's dollar in categories where Ollie's also sells, such as housewares, toys, electronics accessories, and clothing. Their business model bypasses traditional retail supply chains, potentially offering lower prices and a more convenient online shopping experience, which could divert traffic and sales from Ollie's brick-and-mortar stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) operates within several large addressable markets in the United States, based on its diverse product offerings:
- Housewares: The houseware and kitchenware market in the U.S. was valued at approximately USD 166.6 billion in 2025.
- Bed and Bath: The United States bed and bath linen market is projected to be USD 23.36 billion in 2026.
- Food: The United States food and grocery retailing market was valued at USD 1.80 trillion in 2025.
- Floor Coverings: The U.S. flooring market size was valued at USD 117.31 billion in 2025.
- Health and Beauty Aids: Null
- Books and Stationery: The United States stationery products market size was estimated at USD 34.72 billion in 2025.
- Toys: The U.S. market size for the total toy industry was approximately USD 45.6 billion in 2025.
- Electronics: The U.S. consumer electronics market generated a revenue of approximately USD 241.24 billion in 2025.
- Hardware: The United States hardware stores retail market was valued at USD 58.86 billion in 2025.
- Candy: Confectionery sales in the U.S. reached approximately USD 55 billion in 2025.
- Clothing: The United States apparel market was valued at USD 365.70 billion in 2025.
- Sporting Goods: The market size of Sporting Goods Stores in the U.S. was USD 107.6 billion in 2025.
- Pet Products: Total U.S. pet industry expenditures are projected to reach USD 157 billion in 2025.
- Lawn and Garden Products: The U.S. lawn and garden market is expected to reach USD 83 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) over the next 2-3 years:- New Store Expansion: Ollie's Bargain Outlet is pursuing an aggressive store expansion strategy, with plans to open approximately 75 new stores in fiscal year 2026, including entering new markets such as Minnesota and New Mexico. The company has a long-term goal of reaching over 1,300 stores, indicating significant potential for revenue growth through an expanded physical footprint.
- Comparable Store Sales Growth: The company anticipates continued growth from its existing store base. This growth is expected to be driven by an increase in transaction count and basket size, alongside improvements in merchandise assortment and the overall in-store experience. Ollie's is targeting comparable store sales growth of around 2% for fiscal year 2026.
- Growth of Ollie's Army Loyalty Program and Enhanced Customer Engagement: The "Ollie's Army" loyalty program is a significant driver of customer acquisition and retention. The company has seen substantial increases in new memberships and a growing total customer file. Initiatives such as loyalty program enhancements and expanded digital marketing efforts are aimed at attracting a wider customer base and fostering stronger customer engagement, thereby boosting sales.
- Strategic Merchandise Sourcing and Assortment Optimization: Ollie's unique "closeout" business model allows it to acquire brand-name merchandise at deeply discounted prices, often capitalizing on retail liquidations and excess inventory. This strategy enables competitive pricing and a constantly evolving product assortment, appealing to value-oriented shoppers. The company is also focusing on expanding successful product categories and leveraging data analytics and AI for improved planning to refine its merchandise offerings.
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Share Repurchases
- Ollie's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for an additional $300 million of outstanding common stock, effective through March 31, 2029.
- In fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased $73.8 million worth of stock.
- Ollie's plans to increase share repurchases to approximately $100 million for fiscal year 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are projected to be between $103 million and $113 million.
- A significant portion of the planned 2026 capital expenditures, approximately $20 million, is allocated for the expansion of distribution centers in Texas and Illinois.
- Capital expenditures in fiscal year 2024 were approximately $104 million, including the purchase of 99 Cents Only stores.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 08312021 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -40.0% | -23.6% | -47.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 139.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.7 |
| Rev LTM | 20,720 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,928 |
| FCF LTM | 1,682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,385 |
| CFO LTM | 2,661 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,679 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.7 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 20.8 |
| P/E | 28.2 |
| P/CFO | 18.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 35.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumables | 726 | 636 | 396 | 347 | |
| Home | 636 | 615 | 699 | 697 | |
| Other | 474 | 459 | 407 | 392 | 490 |
| Seasonal | 435 | 394 | 325 | 317 | |
| Bed and bath | 197 | ||||
| Books and stationery | 137 | ||||
| Electronics | 110 | ||||
| Floor coverings | 154 | ||||
| Food | 184 | ||||
| Health and beauty aids | 139 | ||||
| Housewares | 284 | ||||
| Toys | 112 | ||||
| Total | 2,272 | 2,103 | 1,827 | 1,753 | 1,809 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $94.25 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/16/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -33.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $103.04 | $119.56 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.5% | -21.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.1% | 36.2% |
| Downside Capture | 0.14 | 0.57 |
| Upside Capture | -125.61 | 57.34 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 9.0% | 33.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.48 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| Up Beta | 1.47 | 3.06 | 2.15 | 1.64 | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Down Beta | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| Up Capture | -300% | -128% | -32% | 20% | 52% | 53% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 53 | 118 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 19% | 11% | 69% | 114% | 103% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 35 | 73 | 133 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLLI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLLI | -15.4% | 36.2% | -0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 24.8% | 19.4% | 1.02 | 35.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.2% | 12.9% | 1.49 | 34.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.4% | 27.6% | 1.55 | -16.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.8% | 16.2% | 1.47 | -10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 18.7% | 13.8% | 1.00 | 25.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -6.8% | 42.9% | -0.05 | 16.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLLI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLLI | 2.1% | 43.5% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.9% | 23.7% | 0.25 | 41.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.5% | 17.8% | 1.03 | -0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 4.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.8% | 56.5% | 0.32 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLLI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLLI | 15.6% | 43.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/12/2026 | 1.5% | -2.6% | -13.0% |
| 12/9/2025 | -4.0% | -4.9% | -5.3% |
| 8/28/2025 | 0.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 6/3/2025 | -1.8% | 3.5% | 16.3% |
| 3/19/2025 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 11.0% |
| 12/10/2024 | 13.2% | 16.7% | 8.5% |
| 8/29/2024 | -7.6% | -6.7% | 3.1% |
| 6/5/2024 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 20.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 5.8% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -7.2% | -6.3% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 16.7% | 39.6% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -20.9% | -18.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/08/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New store openings | 75 | -12.8% | Lower New | Actual: 86 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 2.98 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 3.01 Bil | 13.1% | Higher New | Actual: 2.65 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Comparable store sales growth | 2.0% | -40.3% | -1.4% | Lower New | Actual: 3.35% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Gross margin | 40.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | Higher New | Actual: 40.3% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Operating income | 339.00 Mil | 343.50 Mil | 348.00 Mil | 16.2% | Higher New | Actual: 295.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted net income | 270.00 Mil | 273.50 Mil | 277.00 Mil | 15.2% | Higher New | Actual: 237.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted net income per diluted share | 4.4 | 4.45 | 4.5 | 15.9% | Higher New | Actual: 3.84 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 103.00 Mil | 108.00 Mil | 113.00 Mil | 22.7% | Higher New | Actual: 88.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Share repurchases | 100.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/9/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Store Openings | 86 | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 85 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Revenue | 2.65 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.64 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Comparable store sales increase | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 3.1% | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 0.03 for 2025 |
| 2025 Gross margin | 40.3% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.3% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Operating income | 293.00 Mil | 295.50 Mil | 298.00 Mil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 295.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted net income | 236.00 Mil | 237.50 Mil | 239.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 235.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 3.81 | 3.84 | 3.87 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 3.8 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 88.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 85.50 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ahlman, Alissa M | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 110.26 | 29 | 3,198 | 993,663 | Form | |
| 2 | Helm, Robert F | EVP/CFO | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 120.08 | 367 | 44,069 | 437,211 | Form |
| 3 | Comitale, James J | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10212025 | 125.75 | 1,775 | 223,206 | 364,424 | Form |
| 4 | Helm, Robert F | EVP/CFO | Direct | Sell | 10212025 | 122.92 | 1,493 | 183,520 | 492,663 | Form |
| 5 | Kraus, Larry | SVP, CIO | Direct | Sell | 10152025 | 130.31 | 8,921 | 1,162,504 | 479,414 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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