Tearsheet

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $116.33 | Market Cap: $7.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $116.33
Market Cap: $7.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OLLI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Jefferies Downgrade and Industry-Wide Inventory Concerns

On February 3, 2025, Jefferies downgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet to 'Hold' from 'Buy', lowering its price target from $125 to $111. This downgrade was based on a warning that historical growth cycles where inventories surpass sales growth tend to result in a decline in gross margins and stock returns, indicating a challenging environment in the U.S. consumer discretionary sector due to rising inventories.

2. Decline in U.S. Consumer Confidence

On September 30, 2025, Ollie's stock experienced a decline following a report indicating a drop in U.S. consumer confidence. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index reached its lowest level since April 2025, primarily due to a significant deterioration in consumers' outlook on the current economic situation and the job market.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OLLI Return25%-37%-8%62%45%9%83%
Peers Return26%19%-8%-5%-29%23%14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OLLI Win Rate42%42%42%83%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate45%53%40%42%28%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OLLI Max Drawdown-48%-43%-26%-0%-10%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-9%-23%-26%-37%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TGT, DG, DLTR, FIVE, BGO. See OLLI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOLLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven179.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1002 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-47.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven40 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven85.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven289 days120 days

Compare to TGT, DG, DLTR, FIVE, BGO


In The Past

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock fell -64.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -64.2% loss requires a 179.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

Better Bets than Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OLLI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
OLLI_8312021_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy08312021OLLIOllie's Bargain OutletDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-40.0%-23.6%-47.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
OLLI_8312021_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy08312021OLLIOllie's Bargain OutletDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-40.0%-23.6%-47.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ollie's Bargain Outlet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OLLITGTDGDLTRFIVEBGOMedian
NameOllie's .Target Dollar G.Dollar T.Five Bel.Bialgo C. 
Mkt Price118.3790.92109.89112.92163.15-112.92
Mkt Cap7.341.324.223.49.0-23.4
Rev LTM2,441105,64041,65211,7774,232-11,777
Op Inc LTM2655,4241,7901,453349-1,453
FCF LTM1442,9441,8501,690345-1,690
FCF 3Y Avg1253,2821,2111,008181-1,008
CFO LTM2536,3863,1582,923559-2,923
CFO 3Y Avg2347,4702,7462,583475-2,583

Growth & Margins

OLLITGTDGDLTRFIVEBGOMedian
NameOllie's .Target Dollar G.Dollar T.Five Bel.Bialgo C. 
Rev Chg LTM10.1%-1.5%5.0%13.6%13.9%-10.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.9%-0.7%5.7%-20.9%13.3%-5.7%
Rev Chg Q17.5%-0.9%5.1%12.3%23.7%-12.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.3%-0.2%1.3%4.5%4.9%-4.3%
Op Mgn LTM10.9%5.1%4.3%12.3%8.3%-8.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.7%5.1%5.9%12.7%9.6%-9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.1%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM10.4%6.0%7.6%24.8%13.2%-10.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.7%7.0%6.8%21.4%12.7%-10.7%
FCF/Rev LTM5.9%2.8%4.4%14.3%8.2%-5.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.8%3.1%3.0%8.5%4.7%-4.7%

Valuation

OLLITGTDGDLTRFIVEBGOMedian
NameOllie's .Target Dollar G.Dollar T.Five Bel.Bialgo C. 
Mkt Cap7.341.324.223.49.0-23.4
P/S3.30.40.61.71.7-1.7
P/EBIT30.58.114.113.320.7-14.1
P/E37.911.421.1-7.026.5-21.1
P/CFO32.07.08.07.012.9-8.0
Total Yield2.6%13.3%5.8%-14.3%3.8%-3.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%4.6%1.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.4%5.6%4.5%4.5%2.2%-4.5%
D/E0.10.40.70.40.3-0.4
Net D/E0.00.30.60.30.2-0.3

Returns

OLLITGTDGDLTRFIVEBGOMedian
NameOllie's .Target Dollar G.Dollar T.Five Bel.Bialgo C. 
1M Rtn-4.8%0.7%10.8%12.0%3.0%-3.0%
3M Rtn-7.9%-0.3%0.8%10.7%8.1%-0.8%
6M Rtn3.5%-0.9%-0.6%27.4%34.6%-3.5%
12M Rtn21.6%-27.8%42.6%55.8%58.1%-42.6%
3Y Rtn95.7%-38.5%-52.2%-25.3%-11.4%--25.3%
1M Excs Rtn-4.7%0.7%10.8%12.0%3.0%-3.0%
3M Excs Rtn-16.9%-6.0%-3.4%7.3%1.4%--3.4%
6M Excs Rtn-11.3%-15.7%-15.3%12.7%19.8%--11.3%
12M Excs Rtn6.1%-41.8%32.3%44.9%62.4%-32.3%
3Y Excs Rtn17.4%-111.8%-126.7%-96.4%-71.4%--96.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Consumables636515347  
Home615580697  
Other459407392490393
Seasonal394325317  
Bed and bath   197148
Books and stationery   137121
Electronics   11093
Floor coverings   154118
Food   184152
Health and beauty aids   13980
Housewares   284211
Toys   11292
Total2,1031,8271,7531,8091,408


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,603,821
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.6%
Average Daily Volume967,585
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.76
Basic Shares Quantity61,340,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025903202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025603202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025326202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241210202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024829202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024605202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024327202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231206202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023831202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023607202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221207202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022901202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022325202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211207202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Helm Robert FEVP/CFO10272025Sell120.0836744,069437,211Form