Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)


Market Price (8/13/2026): $78.27 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)


Market Price (8/13/2026): $78.27
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%

Key risks
OLLI key risks include its business model's dependence on sourcing closeout merchandise, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordable Living & Value Seeking, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Discount Retail, Inventory Management & Liquidation, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
7 Key risks
OLLI key risks include its business model's dependence on sourcing closeout merchandise, Show more.

OLLI in ETFs

Weight = OLLI's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.13%
VB0.06%
MDYG0.25%
IJK0.25%
MDY0.13%
+15 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/5/2026

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue missed expectations and comparable store sales growth decelerated. Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported revenue of $658.93 million for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended April 30, 2026, falling short of the $661.65 million consensus estimate. Additionally, comparable store sales growth slowed to 1.7% in fiscal Q1 2026, a notable deceleration from the mid-single-digit growth observed in the prior three quarters, indicating potential concerns about underlying sales momentum despite strong overall net sales growth of 14.2% year-over-year driven by new store openings.

2. Multiple analyst downgrades and significant price target reductions occurred. Following the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, several analysts lowered their ratings and price targets for OLLI. Notably, J.P. Morgan downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" and significantly reduced its price target from $152 to $70 on July 8, 2026. Other firms also adjusted their outlooks, with RBC Capital lowering its target from $152 to $121 on July 30, 2026, and KeyBanc reducing its target from $140 to $98 on July 16, 2026. These actions by Wall Street analysts likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.

Show more
Updated on 8/5/2026

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue missed expectations and comparable store sales growth decelerated. Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported revenue of $658.93 million for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended April 30, 2026, falling short of the $661.65 million consensus estimate. Additionally, comparable store sales growth slowed to 1.7% in fiscal Q1 2026, a notable deceleration from the mid-single-digit growth observed in the prior three quarters, indicating potential concerns about underlying sales momentum despite strong overall net sales growth of 14.2% year-over-year driven by new store openings.

2. Multiple analyst downgrades and significant price target reductions occurred. Following the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, several analysts lowered their ratings and price targets for OLLI. Notably, J.P. Morgan downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" and significantly reduced its price target from $152 to $70 on July 8, 2026. Other firms also adjusted their outlooks, with RBC Capital lowering its target from $152 to $121 on July 30, 2026, and KeyBanc reducing its target from $140 to $98 on July 16, 2026. These actions by Wall Street analysts likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.

3. Broader concerns regarding consumer spending pressure likely impacted investor confidence. Despite Ollie's Bargain Outlet's business model being well-positioned to attract value-conscious shoppers, management acknowledged during the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings call that "the consumer today is under pressure and increasingly focused on stretching their hard-earned dollars." While this environment could benefit discount retailers, the general apprehension about a potential weakening in overall consumer spending, combined with the company's decelerating comparable store sales, likely led to a more cautious investor outlook for the retail sector.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -9.5% change in OLLI stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268122026Change
Stock Price ($)86.5178.25-9.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,6492,7313.1%
Net Income Margin (%)9.1%9.1%0.6%
P/E Multiple22.019.1-13.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)61610.6%
Cumulative Contribution-9.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OLLI-9.5% 
Market (SPY)7.5%24.1%
Sector (XLY)-0.4%38.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -29.1% change in OLLI stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120268122026Change
Stock Price ($)110.3178.25-29.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,5372,7317.7%
Net Income Margin (%)8.8%9.1%3.6%
P/E Multiple30.319.1-36.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)61610.8%
Cumulative Contribution-29.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OLLI-29.1% 
Market (SPY)11.9%23.9%
Sector (XLY)-2.5%29.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -42.7% change in OLLI stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120258122026Change
Stock Price ($)136.6378.25-42.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,3402,73116.7%
Net Income Margin (%)8.6%9.1%6.3%
P/E Multiple41.719.1-54.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)61610.8%
Cumulative Contribution-42.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OLLI-42.7% 
Market (SPY)23.3%25.8%
Sector (XLY)7.1%31.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 7.4% change in OLLI stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120238122026Change
Stock Price ($)72.8878.257.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,8792,73145.3%
Net Income Margin (%)6.5%9.1%41.6%
P/E Multiple37.219.1-48.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)62611.8%
Cumulative Contribution7.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
OLLI7.4% 
Market (SPY)74.7%30.4%
Sector (XLY)38.8%35.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
OLLI Return-37%-8%62%45%-0%-28%-4%
Peers Return12%-3%-1%-1%39%12%67%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OLLI Win Rate42%42%83%50%58%25% 
Peers Win Rate52%48%53%48%63%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OLLI Max Drawdown-57%-36%-21%-17%-23%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-36%-34%-32%-20%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, BURL, DG, DLTR. See OLLI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/12/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventOLLIS&P 500
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-12.7%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven14.6%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven7 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-27.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven30 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-38.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven30 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.3%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven115 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.4%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven91 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-27.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven38.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven97 days15 days

Compare to TJX, ROST, BURL, DG, DLTR

In The Past

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock fell -9.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventOLLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-27.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven30 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-38.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven30 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.3%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven115 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.4%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven91 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-27.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven38.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven97 days15 days

Compare to TJX, ROST, BURL, DG, DLTR

In The Past

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock fell -9.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) operates as a prominent discount retail chain, specializing in selling a wide array of brand name merchandise at significantly reduced prices. The company's business model revolves around opportunistic buying, where it acquires excess inventory, closeouts, and refurbished goods directly from manufacturers and other retailers. This strategy enables Ollie's to offer popular products at substantial savings, embodying its "Good Stuff Cheap" motto for value-seeking consumers.

The company's product offerings are highly diverse, encompassing a broad range of categories to appeal to a wide customer base. These include household essentials such as housewares, bed and bath items, and food, alongside health and beauty aids, books, stationery, toys, and electronics. Additionally, Ollie's stores stock items like hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet supplies, and lawn and garden products. As of early 2022, Ollie's operated 436 stores across 29 states, primarily serving customers throughout approximately half of the United States.

Ollie's primary customers are value-conscious shoppers seeking discounted brand-name products across various demographics. The company caters to individuals and families who prioritize savings and affordability while still desiring well-known brands. Its network of physical stores serves as the main channel for reaching these customers, providing a unique "treasure hunt" shopping experience that encourages frequent visits and discovery of new bargains.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are brief analogies for Ollie's Bargain Outlet:

  • A Big Lots, but specializing in an ever-changing assortment of brand-name closeouts and opportunistic buys.
  • Like a TJ Maxx or Marshalls, but for a constantly rotating inventory of everything from electronics and food to home goods and toys, all at deeply discounted prices.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Housewares: A variety of goods for the home, including kitchenware, small appliances, and home decor items.
  • Bed and Bath: Products such as linens, towels, and other items for bedrooms and bathrooms.
  • Food: Packaged and non-perishable food items, often including snacks, beverages, and pantry staples.
  • Floor Coverings: Products like rugs, mats, and other materials used to cover floors.
  • Health and Beauty Aids: Personal care products, cosmetics, and over-the-counter health items.
  • Books and Stationery: A selection of reading materials, writing supplies, and office products.
  • Toys: Various playthings and games for children.
  • Electronics: Consumer electronic devices and accessories.
  • Hardware: Tools, fasteners, and other items for home improvement and repairs.
  • Candy: Confectionery products and sweet treats.
  • Clothing: Apparel for various ages and purposes.
  • Sporting Goods: Equipment and accessories for sports and outdoor activities.
  • Pet and Lawn & Garden Products: Supplies for pets and items for garden maintenance and outdoor living.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) operates primarily as a retailer with physical stores, selling a wide variety of brand-name merchandise directly to individual consumers. Therefore, its major customers are not other companies, but rather the general public.

Based on its business model as a "bargain outlet" offering "Good Stuff Cheap!" and "Real Brands Real Cheap!", Ollie's serves the following categories of individual customers:

  • Value-Driven Consumers: This category includes individuals and families who prioritize cost savings and actively seek out discounted branded merchandise for household goods, groceries, seasonal items, and other everyday needs. They are looking to purchase quality products at a lower price point than traditional retailers.
  • Opportunistic and Treasure-Hunt Shoppers: These customers enjoy the "discovery" aspect of shopping at a discount retailer with an ever-changing inventory. They are often browsing for unique finds, unexpected deals, or specific brand-name items that may only be available for a limited time, appreciating the "Real Brands! Real Bargains" experience.
  • Budget-Conscious Households: This broad category encompasses households looking to furnish or restock their homes, acquire entertainment items, or purchase essentials across a wide range of categories (from home decor and kitchenware to pet supplies and personal care) while adhering to a strict budget. They rely on Ollie's for a diverse selection of products at affordable prices.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Eric van der Valk, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Mr. van der Valk has served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a Director since February 2025. He joined Ollie's in May 2021 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer and was promoted to President in June 2024. Before joining Ollie's, he was President and Chief Operating Officer of Christmas Tree Shops ("CTS"), a discount retailer, a role he assumed in 2019 after joining CTS in 2005. Prior to CTS, Mr. van der Valk held various financial and merchandising roles at May Department Stores' Filene's and Robinsons-May divisions, and served as head of store operations for KB Toys. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Brightmore Brands, a privately held thrift store chain.

Robert Helm, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Helm has been Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since June 2024. He joined Ollie's as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in October 2022. In his current role, he also oversees Real Estate and Information Technology. Prior to Ollie's, Mr. Helm served as Chief Financial Officer of The Children's Place, Inc. (TCP) starting in 2021, after joining TCP in 2016 as Vice President and Controller. His previous experience includes finance leadership roles at retailers such as Ralph Lauren, rag & bone, and FreshDirect. Mr. Helm began his career in public accounting and auditing, including at KPMG, and is a Certified Public Accountant.

John Swygert, Executive Chairman of the Board

Mr. Swygert has served as Executive Chairman of the Board since February 2025. He previously held the roles of Chief Executive Officer and President of Ollie's from December 2019 to February 2025. Prior to that, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer from January 2018 to December 2019. Mr. Swygert joined Ollie's in March 2004 as Chief Financial Officer and was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2011. He has over 32 years of experience as a finance professional in discount retail. Before Ollie's, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Factory 2-U Stores, Inc., where he held various finance positions from 1992. He also worked for PETCO Animal Supplies, Inc. in Business Development and Financial Analysis and has served on the Board of Directors of Truck Hero Holdings, Inc., a privately held company, since 2018.

Chris Zender, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Mr. Zender has been Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer since June 2024. Before joining Ollie's, Mr. Zender was President and Chief Operating Officer of Variety Stores (Variety Wholesalers). He was promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer in 2023, having joined Variety Wholesalers in 2013 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. His prior experience includes serving as a Regional Project Support Manager for Home Depot from 2011 to 2013, President of K&G Fashion Superstore, and various operating roles at Value City Department Stores and CR Anthony Company.

James Comitale, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary

Mr. Comitale has served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel since October 2021, and Corporate Secretary since June 2022. Prior to joining Ollie's, Mr. Comitale spent 23 years at Rite Aid Corporation, where he advanced from Associate Counsel to Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) are primarily centered around its unique business model and aggressive growth strategy.

  1. Supply Consistency and Sourcing Pipeline: Ollie's business is built on its ability to acquire "closeout" merchandise and excess inventory from other retailers and manufacturers. The biggest operational risk and core challenge is the very nature of their sourcing pipeline. If there are fewer retail failures or if manufacturers become more adept at managing inventory, the "deal flow" of discounted products could diminish, directly impacting the company's ability to stock its stores with compelling bargains.
  2. Execution Risk from Rapid Expansion: Ollie's is in an aggressive growth phase, with plans for significant new store openings (e.g., 85 stores for fiscal 2025 and 75 stores in 2026). This rapid expansion introduces execution risks such as increased pre-opening expenses, potential strain on the supply chain, and the risk of cannibalization, where new stores might draw sales away from existing locations.
  3. Macroeconomic Sensitivity and Consumer Spending: While discount retailers can be seen as "recession-resistant," Ollie's is still sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. A severe economic downturn that impacts the discretionary spending of its target demographic (households in the $40k–$55k income range) could reduce demand for its non-essential "treasure hunt" items. External factors such as tariffs, inflation, and volatile consumer behavior also pose risks to profitability and operational stability.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The rapid emergence and growth of ultra-low-cost, direct-to-consumer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Temu, Shein) represents a clear emerging threat. These platforms offer a vast array of inexpensive general merchandise, directly competing for the value-conscious consumer's dollar in categories where Ollie's also sells, such as housewares, toys, electronics accessories, and clothing. Their business model bypasses traditional retail supply chains, potentially offering lower prices and a more convenient online shopping experience, which could divert traffic and sales from Ollie's brick-and-mortar stores.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) operates within several large addressable markets in the United States, based on its diverse product offerings:

  • Housewares: The houseware and kitchenware market in the U.S. was valued at approximately USD 166.6 billion in 2025.
  • Bed and Bath: The United States bed and bath linen market is projected to be USD 23.36 billion in 2026.
  • Food: The United States food and grocery retailing market was valued at USD 1.80 trillion in 2025.
  • Floor Coverings: The U.S. flooring market size was valued at USD 117.31 billion in 2025.
  • Health and Beauty Aids: Null
  • Books and Stationery: The United States stationery products market size was estimated at USD 34.72 billion in 2025.
  • Toys: The U.S. market size for the total toy industry was approximately USD 45.6 billion in 2025.
  • Electronics: The U.S. consumer electronics market generated a revenue of approximately USD 241.24 billion in 2025.
  • Hardware: The United States hardware stores retail market was valued at USD 58.86 billion in 2025.
  • Candy: Confectionery sales in the U.S. reached approximately USD 55 billion in 2025.
  • Clothing: The United States apparel market was valued at USD 365.70 billion in 2025.
  • Sporting Goods: The market size of Sporting Goods Stores in the U.S. was USD 107.6 billion in 2025.
  • Pet Products: Total U.S. pet industry expenditures are projected to reach USD 157 billion in 2025.
  • Lawn and Garden Products: The U.S. lawn and garden market is expected to reach USD 83 billion in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. New Store Expansion: Ollie's Bargain Outlet is pursuing an aggressive store expansion strategy, with plans to open approximately 75 new stores in fiscal year 2026, including entering new markets such as Minnesota and New Mexico. The company has a long-term goal of reaching over 1,300 stores, indicating significant potential for revenue growth through an expanded physical footprint.
  2. Comparable Store Sales Growth: The company anticipates continued growth from its existing store base. This growth is expected to be driven by an increase in transaction count and basket size, alongside improvements in merchandise assortment and the overall in-store experience. Ollie's is targeting comparable store sales growth of around 2% for fiscal year 2026.
  3. Growth of Ollie's Army Loyalty Program and Enhanced Customer Engagement: The "Ollie's Army" loyalty program is a significant driver of customer acquisition and retention. The company has seen substantial increases in new memberships and a growing total customer file. Initiatives such as loyalty program enhancements and expanded digital marketing efforts are aimed at attracting a wider customer base and fostering stronger customer engagement, thereby boosting sales.
  4. Strategic Merchandise Sourcing and Assortment Optimization: Ollie's unique "closeout" business model allows it to acquire brand-name merchandise at deeply discounted prices, often capitalizing on retail liquidations and excess inventory. This strategy enables competitive pricing and a constantly evolving product assortment, appealing to value-oriented shoppers. The company is also focusing on expanding successful product categories and leveraging data analytics and AI for improved planning to refine its merchandise offerings.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Ollie's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for an additional $300 million of outstanding common stock, effective through March 31, 2029.
  • In fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased $73.8 million worth of stock.
  • Ollie's plans to increase share repurchases to approximately $100 million for fiscal year 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are projected to be between $103 million and $113 million.
  • A significant portion of the planned 2026 capital expenditures, approximately $20 million, is allocated for the expansion of distribution centers in Texas and Illinois.
  • Capital expenditures in fiscal year 2024 were approximately $104 million, including the purchase of 99 Cents Only stores.

Better Bets vs. Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

Peer Outperformance in Broadline Retail

OLLI has outperformed 67% of its 15 Broadline Retail peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is AMZN. Broadline Retail ranks 19th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Broadline Retail constituents that OLLI has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
38%
of 16 industry peers · -41.1% return
3Y
50%
of 16 industry peers · 6.8% return
5Y
67%
of 15 industry peers · -8.6% return
Broadline Retail peers with revenue growth within 4pp of OLLI's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet 13.3% 19.1x -41.1%6.8%-8.6%
AMZN Amazon.com 13.0% 21.3x 20.7%93.1%62.3% +71pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Broadline Retail is OLLI's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -3.4%98.5%62.1% LINC 326% · UTI 277% · CVSA 240%
Homebuilding 18 2.4%26.5%53.3% GRBK 171% · TOL 156% · PHM 149%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 22.4%44.4%16.0% RCL 301% · MAR 175% · HLT 167%
Specialty Stores 7 17.8%23.5%7.5% DKS 117% · SIG 43% · ASO 39%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -11.0%1.2%6.3% LOW 25% · HD 17% · HVT 6%
Automotive Retail 18 -9.7%-1.0%6.0% MUSA 267% · PAG 173% · ORLY 132%
Home Furnishings 4 8.2%36.7%-3.2% SGI 54% · LZB 28% · MHK -35%
Casinos & Gaming 21 -7.5%-18.5%-6.2% BRAG 1221% · MCRI 113% · RRR 87%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -11.5%15.3%-6.6% HRB 150% · FTDR 99% · SCI 41%
Distributors 4 -5.8%-25.8%-10.1% ARMK 150% · GPC 24% · LKQ -44%
Footwear 9 67.7%38.0%-10.9% WEYS 147% · SHOO 27% · DECK 26%
Restaurants 34 -3.6%-14.1%-14.9% EAT 361% · CAKE 199% · TXRH 164%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -2.0%-4.9%-32.6% MOD 1297% · GTX 310% · STRT 91%
Leisure Products 13 0.3%-21.7%-33.1% GOLF 79% · HAS 15% · MCFT -4%
Apparel Retail 25 12.1%5.6%-38.3% ANF 199% · DXLG 181% · TJX 131%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 12.1%-2.4%-41.0% TPR 296% · ELA 270% · RL 252%
Household Appliances 18 0.7%33.3%-43.3% KEQU 168% · FLXS 128% · HBB 116%
Leisure Facilities 12 -11.9%-12.0%-44.7% OSW 178% · JAKK 117% · ESCA 11%
Broadline Retail ← 16 3.8%6.8%-52.5% DDS 317% · AMZN 62% · M 52%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -8.8%-8.2%-54.4% BBY -8% · GME -54% · UPBD -60%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -71.2%-68.0%-69.9% GM 68% · F 39% · TSLA 37%
Consumer Electronics 11 -25.6%-31.1%-78.6% AXIL 2015% · GRMN 105% · TBCH -52%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -25.4%-48.6%-80.7% BBW 206% · WINA 99% · TLF 99%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OLLITJXROSTBURLDGDLTRMedian
NameOllie's .TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Dollar G.Dollar T. 
Mkt Price78.25152.13248.25353.63119.60128.61140.37
Mkt Cap4.8168.379.222.226.425.325.8
Rev LTM2,73161,58423,77611,91943,07519,74821,762
Op Inc LTM3367,5482,9058742,2661,7422,004
FCF LTM2135,4772,6323682,2021,5571,879
FCF 3Y Avg1454,5081,9921411,7691,1771,473
CFO LTM3137,5993,4531,3223,5042,6953,074
CFO 3Y Avg2636,4742,7741,0343,1822,6582,716

Growth & Margins

OLLITJXROSTBURLDGDLTRMedian
NameOllie's .TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Dollar G.Dollar T. 
Rev Chg LTM16.7%8.1%11.9%10.6%4.7%9.4%10.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.3%7.0%8.1%10.2%3.9%9.3%8.7%
Rev Chg Q14.2%9.2%20.6%14.1%3.4%7.2%11.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%2.0%4.5%3.0%0.8%1.7%2.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM23.4%20.2%11.7%19.6%29.9%19.0%19.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg28.6%15.4%13.9%28.4%-8.3%0.2%14.6%
Op Mgn LTM12.3%12.3%12.2%7.3%5.3%8.8%10.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.0%11.4%12.1%6.7%5.1%9.9%10.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.4%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.5%12.3%14.5%11.1%8.1%13.6%11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%11.2%12.6%9.5%7.7%15.9%11.0%
FCF/Rev LTM7.8%8.9%11.1%3.1%5.1%7.9%7.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.9%7.8%9.0%1.3%4.3%6.6%6.3%

Valuation

OLLITJXROSTBURLDGDLTRMedian
NameOllie's .TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Dollar G.Dollar T. 
Mkt Cap4.8168.379.222.226.425.325.8
P/S1.72.73.31.90.61.31.8
P/Op Inc14.222.327.325.411.614.518.4
P/EBIT14.221.725.824.711.714.518.1
P/E19.129.134.235.616.819.724.4
P/CFO15.222.122.916.87.59.416.0
Total Yield5.2%4.6%3.6%2.8%7.9%5.1%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%0.7%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%3.1%3.8%0.7%6.8%5.2%3.5%
D/E0.10.10.10.30.60.30.2
Net D/E0.10.10.00.20.50.30.2

Returns

OLLITJXROSTBURLDGDLTRMedian
NameOllie's .TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt.Dollar G.Dollar T. 
1M Rtn19.8%1.1%13.1%7.9%-3.1%1.8%4.9%
3M Rtn5.4%3.8%17.5%23.5%18.1%48.2%17.8%
6M Rtn-31.2%1.5%29.5%15.6%-17.9%2.9%2.2%
12M Rtn-41.1%15.4%69.3%27.0%5.9%12.8%14.1%
3Y Rtn6.8%83.6%125.7%116.8%-22.6%-12.7%45.2%
1M Excs Rtn16.0%-1.5%9.6%3.1%-3.2%0.5%1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-0.6%-3.1%9.6%17.7%12.0%39.7%10.8%
6M Excs Rtn-42.4%-11.8%18.0%4.5%-29.0%-6.1%-9.0%
12M Excs Rtn-63.7%-5.3%49.4%9.2%-15.0%-9.0%-7.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-63.5%11.9%54.0%39.8%-95.1%-85.6%-25.8%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Consumables846726636515347
Home749636615580697
Other548474459407392
Seasonal506435394325317
Total2,6492,2722,1031,8271,753


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$78.25 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4.8 
First Trading Date07/16/2015 
Distance from 52W High-43.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$74.28$97.45
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA5.3%-19.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility49.2%39.7%
Downside Capture117.03143.06
Upside Capture119.9149.99
Correlation (SPY)24.4%26.1%
OLLI Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.010.530.740.660.750.76
Up Beta-0.991.852.431.671.421.00
Down Beta-2.15-1.30-1.08-0.56-0.230.33
Up Capture65%49%40%15%28%46%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days13233059113377
Down Capture135%111%134%113%124%97%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days9203367139374

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with OLLI
OLLI-42.2%39.6%-1.29-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.7%19.4%0.1632.0%
Equity (SPY)22.6%12.8%1.3226.3%
Gold (GLD)31.4%28.4%0.951.9%
Commodities (DBC)37.9%20.1%1.48-13.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.3%13.8%0.7317.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-46.5%42.9%-1.3313.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with OLLI
OLLI-2.2%44.4%0.09-
Sector ETF (XLY)6.3%24.0%0.2241.1%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.2%0.6036.8%
Gold (GLD)19.0%18.6%0.831.4%
Commodities (DBC)9.8%19.6%0.391.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.2%18.9%0.0128.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.9%52.8%0.3714.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with OLLI
OLLI11.9%43.3%0.41-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.5%22.2%0.5144.0%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7339.7%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.2%0.610.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%18.0%0.368.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1930.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.9%66.1%1.0112.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 7152026-4.9%
Average Daily Volume1.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity60.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 7/8/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
6/3/20260.6%-1.7%-6.4%
3/12/20261.5%-2.6%-13.0%
12/9/2025-4.0%-4.9%-5.3%
8/28/20250.6%2.5%1.4%
6/3/2025-1.8%3.5%16.3%
3/19/20259.0%7.4%11.0%
12/10/202413.2%16.7%8.5%
8/29/2024-7.6%-6.7%3.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141213
# Negative101211
Median Positive4.4%5.1%10.3%
Median Negative-7.2%-5.6%-8.0%
Max Positive13.2%16.7%39.6%
Max Negative-20.5%-20.9%-18.2%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
6/3/20260.6%-1.7%-6.4%
3/12/20261.5%-2.6%-13.0%
12/9/2025-4.0%-4.9%-5.3%
8/28/20250.6%2.5%1.4%
6/3/2025-1.8%3.5%16.3%
3/19/20259.0%7.4%11.0%
12/10/202413.2%16.7%8.5%
8/29/2024-7.6%-6.7%3.1%
6/5/20249.5%3.9%20.1%
3/20/20241.2%1.0%-4.1%
12/6/20230.1%-4.5%-8.0%
8/31/20232.9%-0.9%3.1%
6/7/2023-1.5%0.2%3.6%
3/22/20239.8%7.1%19.7%
12/7/2022-17.5%-9.6%-9.9%
9/1/2022-0.9%5.8%-6.7%
6/8/20224.7%6.1%39.6%
3/23/20225.9%7.9%19.0%
12/2/2021-20.5%-20.9%-16.6%
8/26/2021-6.7%-6.3%-17.4%
5/27/20217.5%4.5%6.3%
3/18/20214.2%-1.2%10.3%
12/3/2020-9.8%-13.1%-6.0%
8/27/2020-9.2%-13.0%-18.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141213
# Negative101211
Median Positive4.4%5.1%10.3%
Median Negative-7.2%-5.6%-8.0%
Max Positive13.2%16.7%39.6%
Max Negative-20.5%-20.9%-18.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
04/30/202606/03/202610-Q
01/31/202603/19/202610-K
10/31/202512/09/202510-Q
07/31/202509/03/202510-Q
04/30/202506/03/202510-Q
01/31/202503/26/202510-K
10/31/202412/10/202410-Q
07/31/202408/29/202410-Q
04/30/202406/05/202410-Q
01/31/202403/27/202410-K
10/31/202312/06/202310-Q
07/31/202308/31/202310-Q
04/30/202306/07/202310-Q
01/31/202303/24/202310-K
10/31/202212/07/202210-Q
07/31/202209/01/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
04/30/202606/03/202610-Q
01/31/202603/19/202610-K
10/31/202512/09/202510-Q
07/31/202509/03/202510-Q
04/30/202506/03/202510-Q
01/31/202503/26/202510-K
10/31/202412/10/202410-Q
07/31/202408/29/202410-Q
04/30/202406/05/202410-Q
01/31/202403/27/202410-K
10/31/202312/06/202310-Q
07/31/202308/31/202310-Q
04/30/202306/07/202310-Q
01/31/202303/24/202310-K
10/31/202212/07/202210-Q
07/31/202209/01/202210-Q
04/30/202206/08/202210-Q
01/31/202203/25/202210-K
10/31/202112/07/202110-Q
07/31/202108/31/202110-Q
04/30/202106/03/202110-Q
01/31/202103/24/202110-K
10/31/202012/08/202010-Q
07/31/202009/01/202010-Q
04/30/202006/03/202010-Q
01/31/202003/25/202010-K
10/31/201912/12/201910-Q
07/31/201909/06/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/27/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 6/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New store openings 75 0 AffirmedGuidance: 75 for 2026
2026 Net sales2.98 Bil2.99 Bil3.00 Bil-0.3% LoweredGuidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Comparable store sales growth 2.0%  0AffirmedGuidance: 2.0% for 2026
2026 Gross margin 40.7%  0.2%RaisedGuidance: 40.5% for 2026
2026 Operating income340.00 Mil344.00 Mil348.00 Mil0.1% RaisedGuidance: 343.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted net income271.00 Mil274.00 Mil277.00 Mil0.2% RaisedGuidance: 273.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted net income per diluted share4.454.54.551.1% RaisedGuidance: 4.45 for 2026
2026 Annual effective tax rate 25.0%    
2026 Diluted weighted average shares outstanding 60.90 Mil    
2026 Capital expenditures103.00 Mil108.00 Mil113.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 108.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Share repurchases 125.00 Mil 25.0% RaisedGuidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New store openings 75 -12.8% Lower NewActual: 86 for 2025
2026 Revenue2.98 Bil3.00 Bil3.01 Bil13.1% Higher NewActual: 2.65 Bil for 2025
2026 Comparable store sales growth 2.0%  -1.4%Lower NewActual: 3.35% for 2025
2026 Gross margin 40.5%  0.2%Higher NewActual: 40.3% for 2025
2026 Operating income339.00 Mil343.50 Mil348.00 Mil16.2% Higher NewActual: 295.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted net income270.00 Mil273.50 Mil277.00 Mil15.2% Higher NewActual: 237.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted net income per diluted share4.44.454.515.9% Higher NewActual: 3.84 for 2025
2026 Capital expenditures103.00 Mil108.00 Mil113.00 Mil22.7% Higher NewActual: 88.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Share repurchases 100.00 Mil    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/9/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Store Openings 86 1.2% RaisedGuidance: 85 for 2025
2025 Revenue2.65 Bil2.65 Bil2.65 Bil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 2.64 Bil for 2025
2025 Comparable store sales increase0.030.030.04 0.1%RaisedGuidance: 0.03 for 2025
2025 Gross margin 40.3%  0AffirmedGuidance: 40.3% for 2025
2025 Operating income293.00 Mil295.50 Mil298.00 Mil0.2% RaisedGuidance: 295.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Adjusted net income236.00 Mil237.50 Mil239.00 Mil1.1% RaisedGuidance: 235.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Adjusted net income per diluted share3.813.843.871.1% RaisedGuidance: 3.8 for 2025
2025 Annual effective tax rate 24.0%    
2025 Capital expenditures 88.00 Mil 2.9% RaisedGuidance: 85.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Store Openings 75    

Insider Activity

Updated 7/30/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell408202695.803,330319,0144,617,560Form
2Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell402202692.095,231481,7234,438,738Form
3Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell327202689.403,898348,4814,776,731Form
4Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell2112026112.061,126126,1805,401,292Form
5Ahlman, Alissa MDirectSell12292025110.26293,198993,663Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell408202695.803,330319,0144,617,560Form
2Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell402202692.095,231481,7234,438,738Form
3Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell327202689.403,898348,4814,776,731Form
4Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell2112026112.061,126126,1805,401,292Form
5Ahlman, Alissa MDirectSell12292025110.26293,198993,663Form
6Helm, Robert FEVP/CFODirectSell10272025120.0836744,069437,211Form
7Comitale, James JSVP, General CounselDirectSell10212025125.751,775223,206364,424Form
8Helm, Robert FEVP/CFODirectSell10212025122.921,493183,520492,663Form
9Kraus, LarrySVP, CIODirectSell10152025130.318,9211,162,504479,414Form
10Kraus, LarrySVP, CIODirectSell10082025131.463,159415,286483,646Form
11Van, Der Valk EricPresident and CEODirectSell9302025132.274,000529,0801,026,547Form
12Swygert, John WExecutive ChairmanDirectSell9242025132.87107,05814,224,7966,404,334Form
13Comitale, James JSVP, General CounselDirectSell9052025130.002,117275,210325,520Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/12/2026