Mattel (MAT)


Market Price (9/16/2026): $13.44 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products

Mattel (MAT)


Market Price (9/16/2026): $13.44
Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Leisure Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 11%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57%

Key risks
MAT key risks include [1] an outsized dependence on holiday season performance and forecasting errors, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57%
7 Key risks
MAT key risks include [1] an outsized dependence on holiday season performance and forecasting errors, Show more.

MAT in ETFs

Weight = MAT's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.11%
VB0.05%
IJJ0.14%
MDYV0.14%
IVOO0.12%
+18 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/9/2026

Mattel (MAT) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mattel reported a significant miss on adjusted earnings per share for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026.

Despite net sales increasing by 10% to $1.125 billion, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.01, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.04. The company also posted a net loss of $18 million for the quarter, compared to a net income of $53 million in the prior year's second quarter.

2. The company experienced a decline in gross margin and operating income due to various cost pressures and increased expenses in fiscal Q2 2026.

Reported gross margin decreased to 48.2% from 50.9% in the prior year, and adjusted gross margin fell to 48.6% from 51.2%. This decline was primarily attributed to higher advertising and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, the gross incremental cost of tariffs, inflation, higher royalties, and unfavorable foreign exchange rates. Reported operating income decreased by $68 million to $11 million, and adjusted operating income dropped by $57 million to $39 million.

Show more
Updated on 9/9/2026

Mattel (MAT) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mattel reported a significant miss on adjusted earnings per share for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026.

Despite net sales increasing by 10% to $1.125 billion, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.01, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.04. The company also posted a net loss of $18 million for the quarter, compared to a net income of $53 million in the prior year's second quarter.

2. The company experienced a decline in gross margin and operating income due to various cost pressures and increased expenses in fiscal Q2 2026.

Reported gross margin decreased to 48.2% from 50.9% in the prior year, and adjusted gross margin fell to 48.6% from 51.2%. This decline was primarily attributed to higher advertising and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, the gross incremental cost of tariffs, inflation, higher royalties, and unfavorable foreign exchange rates. Reported operating income decreased by $68 million to $11 million, and adjusted operating income dropped by $57 million to $39 million.

3. Mattel's framing of 2026 as an "investment year" likely contributed to investor caution, despite reiterating full-year guidance.

While Mattel reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance for constant-currency net sales growth of 3% to 6%, management's characterization of the year as an "investment year" ahead of expected margin recovery in 2027 may have signaled anticipated near-term profitability pressures. This cautious outlook could have dampened investor enthusiasm, despite strong top-line performance in certain brands.

4. The broader consumer discretionary sector has shown weakness during the period, creating a macroeconomic headwind for Mattel.

The Consumer Discretionary sector, which includes toy manufacturers like Mattel, experienced a decline of 4.3% over the past 12 months. As of September 8, 2026, the Consumer Discretionary sector was down 0.50% intraday, indicating a challenging environment for companies in this industry.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.2% change in MAT stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)53120269152026Change
Stock Price ($)14.9413.42-10.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,3835,4902.0%
Net Income Margin (%)9.3%7.8%-16.0%
P/E Multiple8.99.11.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2972893.0%
Cumulative Contribution-10.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MAT-10.2% 
Market (SPY)0.1%-0.6%
Sector (XLY)-8.3%26.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -20.8% change in MAT stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820269152026Change
Stock Price ($)16.9513.42-20.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,3485,4902.7%
Net Income Margin (%)7.4%7.8%4.7%
P/E Multiple13.09.1-30.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3062895.9%
Cumulative Contribution-20.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MAT-20.8% 
Market (SPY)10.7%17.4%
Sector (XLY)-4.9%30.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -26.7% change in MAT stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120259152026Change
Stock Price ($)18.3013.42-26.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,3365,4902.9%
Net Income Margin (%)9.9%7.8%-21.1%
P/E Multiple11.39.1-19.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)32428912.0%
Cumulative Contribution-26.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MAT-26.7% 
Market (SPY)18.4%20.8%
Sector (XLY)-3.8%30.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -39.4% change in MAT stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -73.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239152026Change
Stock Price ($)22.1613.42-39.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,0595,4908.5%
Net Income Margin (%)4.5%7.8%73.7%
P/E Multiple34.79.1-73.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)35528922.7%
Cumulative Contribution-39.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MAT-39.4% 
Market (SPY)74.1%35.4%
Sector (XLY)32.9%38.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MAT Return24%-17%6%-6%12%-29%-20%
Peers Return66%-3%21%22%-20%41%169%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MAT Win Rate50%42%42%42%58%33% 
Peers Win Rate61%42%50%50%56%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MAT Max Drawdown-19%-40%-25%-21%-34%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-53%-45%-36%-55%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HAS, JAKK, FNKO. See MAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/15/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMATS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-33.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven262 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-14.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.4%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven443 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-13.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.3%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven57 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-14.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven258 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-44.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven80.6%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven214 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-38.9%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven46 days105 days

Compare to HAS, JAKK, FNKO

In The Past

Mattel's stock fell -33.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMATS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-33.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven262 days79 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-44.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven80.6%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven214 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-38.9%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven46 days105 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-39.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven64.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven126 days15 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-45.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven82.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven196 days1085 days

Compare to HAS, JAKK, FNKO

In The Past

Mattel's stock fell -33.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mattel (MAT)

Mattel, Inc. is a leading global children's entertainment company specializing in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a diverse portfolio of toys and consumer products. Operating across North America, international markets, and through its dedicated American Girl segment, Mattel serves children of all ages worldwide with a focus on delivering engaging play experiences.

The company's extensive product offerings are organized around several iconic brand families. Key categories include dolls and accessories under brands like Barbie, Monster High, and American Girl; die-cast vehicles and playsets such as Hot Wheels, Matchbox, and Mario Kart; and infant, toddler, and preschool products from Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends. Mattel also produces action figures, building sets, and games, encompassing its own brands like Masters of the Universe and UNO, alongside popular licensed properties from partners like Disney, NBCUniversal, and Warner Bros. Beyond physical toys, the company also develops related content, gaming, and lifestyle products.

Mattel reaches its broad customer base primarily through a robust distribution network that includes direct-to-consumer sales via its websites and proprietary retail stores, as well as sales to a wide range of retailers including discount, chain, and department stores. The company also leverages wholesalers, agents, and distributors to ensure its products are available globally. Its main customers are children across various age groups, from infants and toddlers to older kids, with specific lines also targeting collectors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Mattel:

  • Like a Disney, but primarily focused on designing and producing physical toys and games for children, with brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price.
  • The Procter & Gamble of the toy industry, owning a vast portfolio of iconic children's brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Dolls & Accessories

    Mattel produces a wide range of dolls, accessories, and related content/lifestyle products under popular brands like Barbie, American Girl, and Monster High.
  • Die-cast Vehicles & Playsets

    The company offers die-cast vehicles, tracks, and playsets for children and collectors, featuring brands such as Hot Wheels and Matchbox.
  • Infant, Toddler & Preschool Products

    Mattel provides toys, content, and lifestyle products designed for infants, toddlers, and preschoolers, primarily through brands like Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends.
  • Action Figures, Building Sets & Games

    The company manufactures action figures, building sets, and various games, including brands like Masters of the Universe, MEGA, and UNO, often leveraging popular licensor partnerships.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mattel (MAT) sells its products primarily to other companies, specifically retailers and wholesalers, rather than directly to individuals as its main sales channel. While it also sells directly to consumers through its own channels, the company's major customers are the large retail chains and wholesale distributors that stock and sell its toys and consumer products worldwide. Based on the company's description and common business practices in the toy industry, its major customers include:

  • Walmart Inc. (WMT)
  • Target Corporation (TGT)
  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
  • Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Ynon Kreiz became CEO of Mattel in April 2018 and Chairman of the board in May 2018. He is credited with leading a significant turnaround at Mattel, transforming it into a global entertainment brand. Prior to Mattel, Kreiz served as Chairman and CEO of Fox Kids Europe from 1997 to 2002, which was acquired by The Walt Disney Company as part of a $2.9 billion deal. He was also Chairman and CEO of Endemol from 2008 to 2011, and Chairman, CEO, and President of Maker Studios, Inc. from 2012 to 2016, which was acquired by The Walt Disney Company in 2014. Kreiz was also a General Partner at Benchmark Capital Europe (later Balderton Capital), a European venture capital firm focused on early-stage technology and media investments.

Paul Ruh, Chief Financial Officer

Paul Ruh will join Mattel as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025, succeeding Anthony DiSilvestro. He is currently the CFO of Kenvue Inc., where he led its separation from Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc., which was one of the largest splits in public company history. Before Kenvue, Ruh was CFO of Johnson & Johnson Consumer Health from 2017 to 2023. He also spent 13 years at PepsiCo, Inc., holding various finance leadership roles, including CFO of Latin America, CFO of Pepsi Beverages America, and CFO of PepsiCo Foodservice. He began his career in operations finance with The Procter & Gamble Company and also worked at McKinsey & Company.

Steve Totzke, President and Chief Commercial Officer

Steve Totzke is President and Chief Commercial Officer of Mattel, a role in which he oversees the company's global commercial operations and worldwide sales in over 150 markets. He joined Mattel in 2002, and his contributions span more than 20 years across various senior general management positions, including sales, marketing, and business operations. His previous roles at Mattel include Executive Vice President, Commercial for Mattel's North America division, Senior Vice President of U.S. Sales and Shopper Marketing, and Vice President and General Manager of Operations in Australia. Totzke also served as Vice President-North American Sales at Spin Master Corp. before rejoining Mattel.

Robbie Brenner, President of Mattel Films

Robbie Brenner is the President of Mattel Films. She was one of CEO Ynon Kreiz's first hires after he became CEO, meeting him after an agent suggested they connect. Brenner, an Academy Award-nominated producer for "Dallas Buyers Club," has been instrumental in Mattel's strategy to leverage its intellectual property into entertainment experiences, including executive producing the "Barbie" movie.

Jonathan Anschell, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary

Jonathan Anschell serves as Mattel's Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. He is responsible for the company's global legal affairs, including litigation, intellectual property, corporate governance, and compliance. Anschell previously served as General Counsel for CBS Television. He has extensive experience in media and entertainment law.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Mattel's business are primarily driven by evolving consumer behavior, global supply chain complexities, and intense market competition.

  1. Shifting Consumer Tastes and Competition from Digital Entertainment: Mattel faces a significant challenge as children increasingly gravitate towards digital games and other forms of entertainment at younger ages, leading to a decline in demand for traditional physical toys. This shift in play patterns requires Mattel to constantly innovate and adapt its product offerings to remain relevant.
  2. Supply Chain Disruptions, Geopolitical/Macroeconomic Factors, and Seasonality: Mattel's business is highly seasonal, with a substantial portion of its sales occurring during the traditional holiday season. This seasonality makes the company particularly vulnerable to unforeseen events, such as pandemics, economic downturns, severe weather, geopolitical conflicts, and disruptions in transportation or manufacturing, especially during critical production and shipping periods. Factors like high inflation and interest rates also affect consumer buying patterns and production costs. Mattel's reliance on manufacturing facilities in various countries, including China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mexico, further exposes it to global supply chain vulnerabilities.
  3. Reliance on Key Retail Customers and Intense Competition: A significant concentration of Mattel's sales comes from a few large retail customers. Any changes in these key customers' purchasing patterns, inventory management strategies, or decisions to favor competing products could adversely affect Mattel's sales and financial performance. Furthermore, the toy industry is characterized by intense competition and relatively low barriers to entry, meaning new competitors can quickly emerge and existing ones can gain market share.

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The increasing shift of children's entertainment and play preferences from physical toys to digital platforms and experiences (e.g., video games, streaming content, interactive apps) presents a clear emerging threat to Mattel's core business model centered on physical toy products.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the addressable markets for Mattel's main products:

  • Dolls and Accessories (e.g., Barbie, American Girl):
    • The global doll market was valued at approximately USD 13.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach over USD 15.95 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.9%.
    • North America holds a dominant share of over 35% of the global doll market.
  • Die-Cast Vehicles, Tracks, Playsets, and Accessories (e.g., Hot Wheels, Matchbox):
    • The global toy vehicles market size was valued at USD 8.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 12.75 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.3%.
    • The global toy cars market, a sub-segment, was valued at USD 5.46 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 10.18 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.18%.
    • North America accounts for 20–25% of the global toy cars market share.
  • Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Products (e.g., Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends):
    • The global baby and toddler toys market size was valued at USD 26.54 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 54.43 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.31%.
    • North America represents the largest regional market for baby and toddler toys, accounting for approximately 30% of the global market share in 2025.
    • The infant, toddler, and preschool toys supercategory generated USD 3.4 billion in U.S. retail sales in 2024.
  • Action Figures, Building Sets, and Games (e.g., Masters of the Universe, UNO, MEGA):
    • The global action figure toys market was valued at USD 9 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 15.3 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.3%.
    • North America occupied the largest market share of approximately 38.7% in the action figure market in 2021.
    • In the U.S. toys market, action figures dominated with a share of 22% in 2025.
    • The global traditional toys and games market (which includes building sets and games) was valued at USD 97.73 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 106.12 billion by 2031, with construction toys holding an 18.42% share in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Mattel (MAT) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Expansion into Entertainment (Film, Television, Digital Gaming, and Location-Based Experiences): Mattel is strategically leveraging its vast intellectual property (IP) beyond traditional toys into various entertainment platforms. This includes plans to release one to two films annually through Mattel Studios, such as a Barbie animated film and a Hot Wheels live-action movie. The company is also significantly expanding its digital gaming presence, including the full acquisition of mobile gaming developer Mattel163 and the planned launch of several self-published digital games by 2027. Furthermore, Mattel is developing location-based entertainment experiences, such as Barbie cafés, Hot Wheels attractions, and UNO-themed social clubs. This entertainment transformation is expected to drive higher-margin revenue through licensing and royalties.
  2. Growth of Core Toy Brands and Product Innovation: Established and iconic toy brands continue to be key revenue drivers. Hot Wheels, for instance, is projected to achieve double-digit growth, while UNO and the Mattel Brick Shop initiative are expected to maintain strong momentum. Mattel is also focused on toy innovation and the launch of new product lines, such as the global rollout of Fisher-Price Wood products, to adapt to evolving consumer preferences and enhance its competitive edge.
  3. Broadening International Market Presence: Mattel is focused on expanding its international footprint, aiming to diversify revenue streams and capitalize on global market opportunities. Initiatives like the global rollout of Fisher-Price Wood products are part of this strategy to increase international net sales.
  4. Strategic Partnerships and Licensing Agreements: Strengthening global licensing partnerships with major brands like Netflix, Disney, and DC is a key driver for new product launches and expanding brand influence, further solidifying Mattel's leadership in the global entertainment and toy industry.
  5. Operational Efficiency and Cost Savings (indirect impact): While not a direct revenue driver, Mattel's "Optimizing for Profitable Growth" program, which targets an additional $200 million in annualized cost savings by 2026, will indirectly support revenue growth. These savings are expected to free up capital for investment in key growth initiatives such as digital gaming, digital marketing, and new product development, which are designed to generate future revenue.

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Share Repurchases

  • Mattel repurchased $600 million of shares in 2025.
  • The company repurchased over $1.2 billion of shares in the three years leading up to the end of 2025, representing approximately 18% of shares outstanding.
  • Mattel's board authorized a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program expected to be completed by the end of 2028.

Share Issuance

  • In March 2021, Mattel undertook a private offering of $1.2 billion in Senior Notes (due 2026 and 2029) to refinance existing debt.
  • In November 2025, Mattel announced an underwritten public offering of $600 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due 2030, with proceeds intended to redeem outstanding Senior Notes due 2026.

Inbound Investments

  • In April 2022, Mattel reportedly engaged in early-stage talks with private equity firms, including Apollo Global Management and L Catterton, regarding a potential buyout.
  • Reuters reported in July 2024 that private equity firm L Catterton had made a buyout offer for Mattel; however, Mattel expressed confidence in its ability to operate as an independent company, and a source indicated no merit to the report.

Outbound Investments

  • Mattel acquired full ownership of the Mattel163 mobile games studio for $159 million from its joint venture partner NetEase, a move announced around February 2026, which is expected to bolster its digital strategy.
  • Management plans to allocate $110 million for strategic investments and $40 million for digital marketing in 2026, focusing on high-return areas such as digital games, direct-to-consumer capabilities, and breakthrough toy innovation.
  • In May 2024, Mattel formed a multi-year strategic partnership with Outright Games to develop several console and PC games based on its brands.

Capital Expenditures

  • Mattel's capital expenditures averaged $176.6 million annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.
  • Reported capital expenditures were $151.4 million in 2021, $186.5 million in 2022, $160.3 million in 2023, $202.6 million in 2024, and $182 million in 2025.
  • Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $190 million, primarily focused on high-return areas.

Better Bets vs. Mattel (MAT)

Peer Outperformance in Leisure Products

MAT has outperformed 50% of its 12 Leisure Products peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is GOLF. Leisure Products ranks 12th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Leisure Products constituents that MAT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
53%
of 15 industry peers · -23.0% return
3Y
38%
of 13 industry peers · -36.3% return
5Y
50%
of 12 industry peers · -34.8% return
Leisure Products peers with revenue growth within 4pp of MAT's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
MAT Mattel 2.8% 9.1x -23.0%-36.3%-34.8%
GOLF Acushnet 4.4% 22.6x 12.5%52.4%71.5% +106pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Leisure Products is MAT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -23.0%88.2%73.6% LINC 303% · PRDO 237% · CVSA 231%
Homebuilding 18 -11.2%25.0%42.1% GRBK 194% · PHM 160% · MHO 130%
Specialty Stores 7 9.1%36.7%6.1% SIG 30% · FIVE 26% · ASO 14%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -27.0%-6.1%2.8% HVT 15% · HD 3% · LOW 3%
Automotive Retail 18 -12.0%6.6%1.7% MUSA 239% · PAG 158% · ORLY 110%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 11.3%43.3%0.4% RCL 211% · MAR 143% · HLT 136%
Distributors 4 -12.5%-25.6%-13.3% ARMK 161% · GPC 22% · LKQ -48%
Home Furnishings 4 -7.1%19.8%-13.9% SGI 44% · LZB 2% · MHK -30%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -16.5%27.1%-17.8% HRB 117% · FTDR 73% · SCI 42%
Restaurants 35 -14.2%-17.3%-19.1% EAT 309% · CAKE 141% · RAVE 126%
Footwear 9 46.6%36.1%-29.4% WEYS 160% · SHOO 17% · DECK 6%
Leisure Products ← 13 -25.1%-20.8%-34.8% GOLF 71% · HAS 12% · BC -21%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -14.0%-15.1%-39.0% MOD 1468% · GTX 285% · CAAS 87%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 -10.0%5.6%-39.4% RL 229% · TPR 227% · ELA 213%
Leisure Facilities 11 -5.3%-4.5%-39.5% OSW 121% · JAKK 108% · ESCA 27%
Apparel Retail 25 -13.9%8.9%-40.5% ANF 266% · URBN 131% · ROST 110%
Household Appliances 18 -7.3%12.7%-43.2% KEQU 174% · FLXS 168% · HBB 125%
Casinos & Gaming 19 -9.0%-28.2%-52.5% MCRI 113% · RRR 46% · RSI 38%
Broadline Retail 15 -17.4%14.1%-58.1% DDS 309% · EBAY 58% · AMZN 42%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -16.0%17.7%-58.4% BBY 6% · GME -58% · UPBD -62%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -77.7%-49.7%-72.8% GM 73% · TSLA 41% · F 37%
Consumer Electronics 11 -15.5%-13.0%-78.5% AXIL 2216% · GRMN 83% · SONO -57%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -35.7%-51.3%-78.7% TLF 109% · BBW 72% · WINA 72%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MATHASJAKKFNKOMedian
NameMattel Hasbro Jakks Pa.Funko  
Mkt Price13.4290.2124.315.3418.86
Mkt Cap3.912.80.30.32.1
Rev LTM5,4904,9735849332,953
Op Inc LTM4541,1611525239
FCF LTM4351,0863527235
FCF 3Y Avg5977882829313
CFO LTM6661,2885163365
CFO 3Y Avg7969844062429

Growth & Margins

MATHASJAKKFNKOMedian
NameMattel Hasbro Jakks Pa.Funko  
Rev Chg LTM2.9%17.0%-14.7%-3.9%-0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.8%-2.6%-6.9%-7.8%-4.8%
Rev Chg Q10.5%16.2%16.9%7.4%13.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%3.3%3.6%1.6%2.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM-34.2%46.3%-67.9%161.1%6.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg9.4%110.1%-20.3%12.7%11.1%
Op Mgn LTM8.3%23.4%2.6%2.7%5.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.1%17.6%4.8%-0.9%8.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.4%-0.2%0.4%6.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM12.1%25.9%8.7%6.7%10.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.7%21.2%6.2%6.1%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM7.9%21.8%6.1%2.9%7.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.0%16.9%4.4%2.8%7.7%

Valuation

MATHASJAKKFNKOMedian
NameMattel Hasbro Jakks Pa.Funko  
Mkt Cap3.912.80.30.32.1
P/S0.72.60.50.30.6
P/Op Inc8.511.018.512.011.5
P/EBIT6.410.711.611.611.1
P/E9.116.117.2-151.212.6
P/CFO5.89.95.54.75.7
Total Yield11.0%9.3%9.9%-0.7%9.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.1%4.1%0.0%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.3%7.9%11.7%5.7%9.6%
D/E0.70.30.20.90.5
Net D/E0.60.2-0.00.70.4

Returns

MATHASJAKKFNKOMedian
NameMattel Hasbro Jakks Pa.Funko  
1M Rtn-10.7%-6.0%-4.5%-13.0%-8.4%
3M Rtn-5.0%7.0%11.9%-2.6%2.2%
6M Rtn-14.5%-1.8%24.9%39.4%11.5%
12M Rtn-23.0%22.5%41.0%59.9%31.8%
3Y Rtn-36.3%53.9%48.5%-29.8%9.3%
1M Excs Rtn-8.1%-3.4%-1.9%-10.5%-5.8%
3M Excs Rtn-6.9%6.5%10.2%-3.0%1.8%
6M Excs Rtn-28.1%-14.5%12.8%25.5%-0.9%
12M Excs Rtn-39.6%3.6%27.3%45.2%15.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.8%-24.1%-31.2%-95.0%-63.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment5,3485,3805,4415,435 
American Girl    270
International    2,219
North America    2,968
Total5,3485,3805,4415,4355,458


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20232022202120202019
North America793766873622357
International299296350272167
American Girl-605-14-59
Corporate and other expense-525-386-498-505-426
Total56267673037539


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20072006200520042003
International841663548588434
Mattel Girls & Boys Brands US269    
Fisher-Price Brands US189    
American Girl Brands62616048 
Fisher Price 217188178149
Mattel Brands US 297256319 
Mattel    244
U.S. Girls    65
Total1,3601,2381,0521,133892


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$13.42 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.9 
First Trading Date01/04/1982 
Distance from 52W High-39.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$14.56$16.39
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA-7.8%-18.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility32.7%39.2%
Downside Capture61.65109.84
Upside Capture30.5360.23
Correlation (SPY)2.6%20.3%
MAT Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.19-0.30-0.120.310.620.87
Up Beta-0.30-1.30-0.940.190.320.77
Down Beta-0.21-0.050.360.590.560.82
Up Capture-16%36%-0%8%46%52%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days10212858123367
Down Capture-3%-39%-1%52%101%104%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days11213668125373

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MAT
MAT-24.4%39.2%-0.61-
Sector ETF (XLY)-6.6%19.5%-0.4729.8%
Equity (SPY)16.3%12.8%0.9020.7%
Gold (GLD)17.6%29.3%0.55-3.5%
Commodities (DBC)48.6%20.6%1.82-12.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%13.5%0.1323.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-33.1%43.8%-0.798.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MAT
MAT-8.2%37.1%-0.14-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.6%24.1%0.1546.4%
Equity (SPY)12.4%17.2%0.5545.0%
Gold (GLD)18.7%18.8%0.80-2.3%
Commodities (DBC)11.7%19.5%0.474.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.8%18.9%-0.0638.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.7%52.5%0.3819.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MAT
MAT-8.1%41.9%-0.06-
Sector ETF (XLY)11.8%22.2%0.4843.3%
Equity (SPY)15.1%18.0%0.7142.5%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.4%0.60-0.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%18.1%0.3911.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%20.7%0.1836.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.4%66.2%1.0310.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity26.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 81520260.7%
Average Daily Volume3.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity288.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/4/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/2026-2.7%1.1%-1.5%
4/29/20261.3%1.3%0.3%
2/10/2026-25.0%-17.9%-23.0%
10/21/2025-2.8%2.2%-1.3%
7/23/2025-16.4%-15.1%-12.0%
5/5/20252.8%17.3%15.2%
2/4/202515.3%20.9%14.4%
10/23/20244.4%14.4%3.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141612
# Negative10812
Median Positive3.6%6.0%9.1%
Median Negative-4.9%-4.0%-4.1%
Max Positive15.3%20.9%16.4%
Max Negative-25.0%-17.9%-23.0%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/2026-2.7%1.1%-1.5%
4/29/20261.3%1.3%0.3%
2/10/2026-25.0%-17.9%-23.0%
10/21/2025-2.8%2.2%-1.3%
7/23/2025-16.4%-15.1%-12.0%
5/5/20252.8%17.3%15.2%
2/4/202515.3%20.9%14.4%
10/23/20244.4%14.4%3.4%
7/23/20249.8%13.7%11.8%
4/23/20242.4%-2.2%-4.5%
2/7/20240.3%2.6%5.2%
10/25/2023-7.6%-3.9%-6.7%
7/26/2023-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%
4/26/20236.1%5.8%5.2%
2/8/2023-10.7%-9.1%-18.5%
10/25/2022-2.7%-4.1%-8.4%
7/21/2022-7.1%-3.6%0.2%
4/27/20220.7%10.1%-2.2%
2/9/20227.6%12.4%-0.5%
10/21/20210.6%5.2%11.4%
7/27/20214.9%6.2%6.8%
4/22/20210.8%4.1%-3.7%
2/9/2021-2.1%1.3%11.3%
10/22/20209.6%8.4%16.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141612
# Negative10812
Median Positive3.6%6.0%9.1%
Median Negative-4.9%-4.0%-4.1%
Max Positive15.3%20.9%16.4%
Max Negative-25.0%-17.9%-23.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/01/202610-Q
12/31/202502/23/202610-K
09/30/202510/29/202510-Q
06/30/202507/29/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/30/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202303/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/01/202610-Q
12/31/202502/23/202610-K
09/30/202510/29/202510-Q
06/30/202507/29/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202407/30/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202303/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/03/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/09/202110-Q
03/31/202104/29/202110-Q
12/31/202002/25/202110-K
09/30/202011/03/202010-Q
06/30/202008/10/202010-Q
03/31/202005/06/202010-Q
12/31/201902/25/202010-K
09/30/201911/12/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/5/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Net Sales GrowthReported3.0%4.5%    
2026 Adjusted Gross MarginReported 50.0%    
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported580.00 Mil605.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 605.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Tax RateReported 24.0%    
2026 Adjusted EPSReported1.271.33 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.33 for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 400.00 Mil    


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported580.00 Mil605.00 Mil630.00 Mil5.2% RaisedGuidance: 575.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported1.271.331.397.3% RaisedGuidance: 1.24 for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Net Sales GrowthReported3.0%4.5%6.0% 2.5%Higher NewActual: 2.0% for 2025
2026 Adjusted Gross MarginReported 50.0%  0.0%Same NewActual: 50.0% for 2025
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported550.00 Mil575.00 Mil600.00 Mil-20.7% Lower NewActual: 725.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted Tax RateReported 24.0%  0.5%Higher NewActual: 23.5% for 2025
2026 Adjusted EPSReported1.181.241.3-22.5% Lower NewActual: 1.6 for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Net SalesReported0.010.020.03 0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 0.02 for 2025
2025 Adjusted Gross MarginReported 50.0%  0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 50.0% for 2025
2025 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported700.00 Mil725.00 Mil750.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 725.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Adjusted Tax RateReported23.0%23.5%24.0% 0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 23.5% for 2025
2025 Adjusted EPSReported1.541.61.660.0% AffirmedGuidance: 1.6 for 2025
2025 Free Cash FlowReported 500.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Share RepurchasesReported 600.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 600.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/2/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Isaias, Zanatta Roberto JacoboEVP & Chief Supply Chain OffrDirectSell902202615.0239,083586,9092,168,305Form
2Kreiz, YnonChairman & CEODirectBuy212202615.5365,0001,009,30027,860,063Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Isaias, Zanatta Roberto JacoboEVP & Chief Supply Chain OffrDirectSell902202615.0239,083586,9092,168,305Form
2Kreiz, YnonChairman & CEODirectBuy212202615.5365,0001,009,30027,860,063Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 16, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Serenity Capital Management PTE. LTD.$29.1 Mil7.0%10TRIM -16.1%13F
EdgePoint Investment Group Inc.$714.0 Mil5.7%37Hold13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Patient Capital Management, LLC$55.4 Mil2.1%40ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Simcoe Capital Management, LLC$52.4 Mil9.4%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Ranmore Fund Management Ltd$43.6 Mil7.5%18ExitedDec 31, 202513F
HS Management Partners, LLC$13.6 Mil2.9%24ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Serenity Capital Management PTE. LTD.$29.1 Mil7.0%10TRIM -16.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
EdgePoint Investment Group Inc.$714.0 Mil5.7%37Hold13F
Serenity Capital Management PTE. LTD.$29.1 Mil7.0%10TRIM -16.1%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/15/2026