Mattel (MAT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $20.335 | Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products
Mattel (MAT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $20.335Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 9.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Key risksMAT key risks include [1] an outsized dependence on holiday season performance and forecasting errors, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% |
| Key risksMAT key risks include [1] an outsized dependence on holiday season performance and forecasting errors, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MAT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining Mattel's stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Shifting Retailer Order Patterns and Outlook Revisions in Q3 2025
Roth/MKM reiterated a Neutral rating on Mattel (MAT) in September 2025, attributing shifts in retail timing for order deliveries towards the fourth quarter of 2025. This led to reduced third-quarter estimates but raised fourth-quarter projections, with the full-year outlook remaining unchanged. Mattel also planned to mitigate tariff costs through supply chain adjustments and price increases.
2. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report
On October 21, 2025, Mattel reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, with net sales of $1.74 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89, both falling short of analyst expectations of $1.84 billion and $1.05-$1.07, respectively. This miss contributed to an initial dip in the stock price. The decline in net sales was largely driven by a 12% decrease in North America.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAT Return | 29% | 24% | -17% | 6% | -6% | 16% | 51% |
| Peers Return | -33% | 66% | -3% | 21% | 22% | -22% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAT Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 61% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAT Max Drawdown | -47% | -1% | -25% | -10% | -15% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -70% | -3% | -42% | -33% | -30% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HAS, JAKK, FNKO. See MAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -70.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,062 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HAS, DOOO, BC, PII, YETI
In The Past
Mattel's stock fell -40.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -40.7% loss requires a 68.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Mattel Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Mattel Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Mattel vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Mattel vs PulteGroup: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Mattel Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than MAT Stock: Pay Less Than Mattel To Get More From UNH, OXY | |||
| Better Bet Than MAT Stock: Pay Less Than Mattel To Get More From NCLH, ALSN | |||
| MAT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Mattel Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -6.1% in 2024 and -6.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Mattel (MAT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Can Mattel Survive The Covid-19 Recession? | June 26th, 2020 | ||
| What’s Driving The Rally In Mattel Stock? | November 4th, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302022 | MAT | Mattel | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | 4.2% | -12.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302022 | MAT | Mattel | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.5% | 4.2% | -12.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mattel
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,643 |
| Op Inc LTM | 286 |
| FCF LTM | 253 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 273 |
| CFO LTM | 344 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 387 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 2.4 |
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -2.8% | 2.2% | -1.3% |
| 7/23/2025 | -16.4% | -15.1% | -12.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.8% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | 15.3% | 20.9% | 14.4% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.4% | 14.4% | 3.4% |
| 7/23/2024 | 9.8% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | 2.4% | -2.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/7/2024 | 0.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -3.8% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -15.1% | -45.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |