Ross Stores (ROST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $177.65 | Market Cap: $57.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Ross Stores (ROST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $177.65Market Cap: $57.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Value Retail & Off-Price. Themes include Discount Apparel & Home Goods, Efficient Inventory Management (Off-Price Model), and In-Store Experiential Shopping (Treasure Hunt). |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Value Retail & Off-Price. Themes include Discount Apparel & Home Goods, Efficient Inventory Management (Off-Price Model), and In-Store Experiential Shopping (Treasure Hunt). |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ROST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Ross Stores reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings and raised its full-year outlook.
On November 20, 2025, Ross Stores announced third-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.58, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.38 to $1.42. The company's revenue for the quarter reached $5.60 billion, surpassing expectations of $5.38 billion and marking a 10.4% increase year-over-year. This strong performance led Ross Stores to raise its full-year 2025 EPS guidance to a range of $6.38 to $6.46. Comparable store sales also saw a robust 7% increase year-over-year.
2. Analysts responded with numerous upgrades and increased price targets.
Following the positive earnings report, several research analysts raised their price targets and reaffirmed or upgraded their ratings for ROST stock. For example, UBS Group increased its price target from $163.00 to $169.00 on November 21st, and TD Cowen raised its target from $170.00 to $174.00 on November 10th. BofA Securities and Evercore ISI also raised their price targets to $200 and $195, respectively, citing strong sales and improved product assortment. On December 1, 2025, Zacks upgraded Ross Stores to a "Buy" rating, reflecting an upward trend in earnings estimates. The stock even reached an all-time high of $178.19 on November 28, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ROST Return | 6% | -6% | 3% | 21% | 10% | 18% | 61% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 13% | 2% | 17% | -2% | 37% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ROST Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 65% | 52% | 65% | 55% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ROST Max Drawdown | -48% | -14% | -38% | -13% | -8% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -10% | -27% | -15% | -27% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, CASY, DLTR, FIVE, ROST. See ROST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ROST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 529 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 177 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TJX, CASY, DLTR, FIVE, ROST
In The Past
Ross Stores's stock fell -47.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -47.2% loss requires a 89.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ROST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ross Stores
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Accents and Bed and Bath | 5,298 | 4,861 | 4,918 | 3,509 | 4,491 |
| Ladies | 4,687 | 4,487 | 4,729 | 2,882 | 3,689 |
| Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry, and Cosmetics | 3,057 | 2,617 | 2,648 | 1,754 | 2,245 |
| Men's | 3,057 | 2,804 | 2,648 | 1,754 | 2,245 |
| Shoes | 2,649 | 2,243 | 2,270 | 1,504 | 1,925 |
| Children's | 1,630 | 1,683 | 1,702 | 1,128 | 1,444 |
| Total | 20,377 | 18,696 | 18,916 | 12,532 | 16,039 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6112025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4012025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12112024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9112024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6122024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4022024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3282023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12082021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Fleming Karen | PRES, CMO ROSS DRESS FOR LESS | 9292025 | Sell | 149.09 | 2,932 | 437,142 | 13,170,109 | Form |
| 1 | BALMUTH MICHAEL | EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN | 4042025 | Sell | 131.60 | 11,261 | 1,481,954 | 7,868,400 | Form |
| 2 | Sykes Karen | PRESIDENT, CMO DD'S DISCOUNTS | 4042025 | Sell | 130.48 | 5,036 | 657,111 | 14,400,723 | Form |
| 3 | Fleming Karen | PRES, CMO ROSS DRESS FOR LESS | 4022025 | Sell | 127.70 | 5,270 | 672,979 | 11,892,127 | Form |
| 4 | Hartshorn Michael J. | GROUP PRESIDENT, COO | 3262025 | Sell | 127.69 | 7,492 | 956,661 | 17,760,669 | Form |
External Quote Links
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