Tearsheet

Duolingo (DUOL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $185.61 | Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Duolingo (DUOL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $185.61
Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 140x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 140x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DUOL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Duolingo's stock movement by -37.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Disappointing Investor Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings: Despite reporting robust Q3 2025 revenue and daily active user (DAU) growth that surpassed analyst expectations, Duolingo's stock experienced a significant decline following its earnings release on November 5, 2025. This negative market reaction was largely attributed to a considerable portion of the reported earnings per share (EPS) beat stemming from a non-recurring $222.7 million tax valuation allowance release, rather than core operational performance.

2. Softer Q4 2025 Guidance and Strategic Rebalancing: Management's guidance for Q4 2025 bookings was perceived as softer than investor expectations. The company communicated a strategic shift towards prioritizing long-term product efficacy and user growth over immediate monetization, which tempered investor enthusiasm for near-term revenue potential.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DUOL Return---33%219%43%-44%72%
Peers Return4%4%-12%22%9%-3%23%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DUOL Win Rate-40%50%58%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate50%50%40%58%58%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DUOL Max Drawdown---41%-0%-30%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-20%-40%-15%-30%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVLT, ACIW, BLKB, HI, ARRY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDUOLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-68.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven221.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven547 days464 days

Compare to CVLT, ACIW, BLKB, HI, ARRY


In The Past

Duolingo's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.7% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Duolingo (DUOL)

Better Bets than Duolingo (DUOL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DUOL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
DUOL_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025DUOLDuolingoDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.2%-9.2%-16.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
DUOL_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025DUOLDuolingoDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.2%-9.2%-16.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Duolingo

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DUOLCVLTACIWBLKBHIARRYMedian
NameDuolingo CommVaul.ACI Worl.BlackbaudHillenbr.Array Te. 
Mkt Price185.34123.9547.0861.6931.847.7954.38
Mkt Cap8.55.54.92.92.31.23.9
Rev LTM9641,0961,7311,1362,8591,3331,235
Op Inc LTM10686343171174144157
FCF LTM34820928821911388214
FCF 3Y Avg22720121617498163188
CFO LTM364216328281155116248
CFO 3Y Avg244206257239153181222

Growth & Margins

DUOLCVLTACIWBLKBHIARRYMedian
NameDuolingo CommVaul.ACI Worl.BlackbaudHillenbr.Array Te. 
Rev Chg LTM39.9%22.0%7.0%-1.0%-8.0%35.8%14.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg41.7%11.7%6.6%3.3%17.8%2.7%9.1%
Rev Chg Q41.1%18.4%6.8%-1.9%-23.9%70.0%12.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.9%4.1%1.8%-0.5%-6.2%13.8%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM11.0%7.8%19.8%15.0%6.1%10.8%10.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.8%8.7%18.6%8.6%8.5%11.4%8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%-0.7%-0.1%1.2%-0.7%-0.0%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM37.7%19.7%18.9%24.7%5.4%8.7%19.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.7%22.3%15.8%21.3%5.4%14.1%18.5%
FCF/Rev LTM36.0%19.1%16.6%19.3%3.9%6.6%17.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg30.3%21.8%13.2%15.5%3.5%12.8%14.3%

Valuation

DUOLCVLTACIWBLKBHIARRYMedian
NameDuolingo CommVaul.ACI Worl.BlackbaudHillenbr.Array Te. 
Mkt Cap8.55.54.92.92.31.23.9
P/S15.37.63.12.70.50.92.9
P/EBIT139.596.514.4-13.79.1282.355.5
P/E38.3104.520.9-12.2-78.9-37.34.4
P/CFO40.638.916.610.99.210.813.8
Total Yield2.6%1.0%4.8%-8.2%3.2%-2.7%1.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.4%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%3.9%4.6%4.9%4.4%10.5%4.5%
D/E0.00.10.20.31.20.50.3
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.10.31.10.40.2

Returns

DUOLCVLTACIWBLKBHIARRYMedian
NameDuolingo CommVaul.ACI Worl.BlackbaudHillenbr.Array Te. 
1M Rtn-30.0%-11.7%-1.2%-3.4%0.7%-7.4%-5.4%
3M Rtn-34.4%-30.8%-4.3%-7.3%29.5%-9.9%-8.6%
6M Rtn-64.3%-32.0%1.0%-2.6%62.5%11.6%-0.8%
12M Rtn-48.7%-27.3%-16.7%-25.4%-3.1%22.9%-21.0%
3Y Rtn162.1%85.2%117.0%2.6%-35.1%-64.9%43.9%
1M Excs Rtn-30.0%-11.7%-1.2%-3.4%0.7%-7.3%-5.4%
3M Excs Rtn-37.4%-35.4%-10.5%-12.4%19.3%-19.6%-16.0%
6M Excs Rtn-79.0%-46.7%-13.7%-17.3%47.8%-3.1%-15.5%
12M Excs Rtn-60.3%-41.3%-30.7%-40.1%-16.5%2.5%-35.4%
3Y Excs Rtn105.7%17.7%57.6%-66.7%-101.7%-136.8%-24.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,364,843
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.8%
Average Daily Volume3,483,471
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.54
Basic Shares Quantity45,950,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Chen Stephen C.General Counsel11192025Sell177.951,282228,1325,882,315Form
1Skaruppa MatthewChief Financial Officer11192025Sell177.952,799498,0827,215,161Form
2Glance NatalieChief Engineering Officer11192025Sell177.952,534450,92520,221,704Form
3Meese RobertChief Business Officer11182025Sell177.951,444256,96022,001,026Form