Tearsheet

Duolingo (DUOL)

Market Price (4/19/2026): $100.58 | Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Duolingo (DUOL)

Market Price (4/19/2026): $100.58
Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 7.7%

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -71%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%

Key risks
DUOL key risks include [1] slowing user growth and rising acquisition costs, Show more.

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 7.7%
1	Cash is significant % of market cap Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
2	Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
3	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
4	Valuation becoming less expensive P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -71%
5	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
6	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100%
7	Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
8	Expensive valuation multiples P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x
9	Significant share based compensation SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
10	Key risks DUOL key risks include [1] slowing user growth and rising acquisition costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	4/19/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price CYE	$100.58	$175.50	$324.23	$226.85	$71.13
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	4.7	8.1	14.3	9.6	2.9
Total Debt ($ Bil)	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Total Cash ($ Bil)	1.1	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.6
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	3.6	8.2	14.4	9.6	2.9
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	4.5	7.8	19.2	18.0	7.7
P/EBIT TTM	34.4	60.0	229.2	-722.6	-43.9
P/E TTM	11.3	19.7	162.0	596.3	-48.1
P/FCF TTM	12.9	22.6	54.3	68.5	65.8
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	8.7	7.9	7.8	7.7	6.2
P/E TTM (Sector)	12.3	11.4	10.1	10.7	8.1
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	10.7	10.6	11.3	9.8	6.6

	4/19/26	2025	2024
Share Price CYE	$100.58	$175.50	$324.23
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	4.7	8.1	14.3
Total Debt ($ Bil)	0.1	0.1	0.1
Total Cash ($ Bil)	1.1	1.1	0.9
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	3.6	8.2	14.4
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	4.5	7.8	19.2
P/EBIT TTM	34.4	60.0	229.2
P/E TTM	11.3	19.7	162.0
P/FCF TTM	12.9	22.6	54.3
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.9	0.9	0.9
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	8.7	7.9	7.8
P/E TTM (Sector)	12.3	11.4	10.1
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	10.7	10.6	11.3

	DUOL	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	VERY GOOD
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	1.0
Rev Chg Q	35.0%	7.5%
Rev Chg LTM	38.7%	6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	41.1%	5.7%
PROFITABILITY	VERY GOOD
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.1
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	0.4
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.4
Op Mgn LTM	13.1%	18.6%
CFO/Rev LTM	37.4%	20.6%
Net Inc Mgn	39.9%	12.8%
VALUATION	LOW
P/S	4.5	3.3
P/CFO	12.0	15.8
P/FCF	12.9	20.6
P/E	11.3	24.5
STABILITY	VERY GOOD
Debt/Equity	0.02	0.20
Cash/Assets	0.57	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Daily Active Users (DAUs)	50500000	9302025	Link
Monthly Active Users (MAUs)	135300000	9302025	Link
Paid Subscribers	11500000	9302025	Link
Total Bookings	281900000	9302025	Link
Paid Subscriber Penetration	9.0%	9302025	Link

Upcoming
5/04/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $288 Mil (E) EPS: $0.79 (E)

Price Chart

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Duolingo (DUOL) stock has lost about 45% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Weaker-than-Expected Forward Bookings and Revenue Guidance.

Duolingo's stock experienced a significant decline after its Q4 2025 earnings release in late February 2026, primarily due to disappointing forward guidance for bookings and revenue. The company projected 2026 bookings between $1.274 billion and $1.298 billion, representing a growth of 10-12%, which fell substantially below the analyst consensus of $1.39 billion. Similarly, the full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.20-$1.22 billion missed the $1.26 billion consensus.

2. Strategic Pivot Towards User Growth Over Near-Term Monetization.

Management announced a strategic shift to prioritize expanding its daily active user base and enhancing the free learner experience, even if it leads to moderated short-term financial growth. This pivot means a reduced focus on immediate revenue extraction, with the company anticipating investing over $50 million of foregone bookings into improving the free user experience.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -42.7% change in DUOL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	12312025	4182026	Change
Stock Price ($)	175.50	100.51	-42.7%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	964	1,038	7.6%
Net Income Margin (%)	40.0%	39.9%	-0.3%
P/E Multiple	20.9	11.3	-46.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	46	46	-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution			-42.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026

	Return	Correlation
DUOL	-42.7%
Market (SPY)	-5.4%	24.7%
Sector (XLY)	0.8%	27.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -68.8% change in DUOL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -91.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	9302025	4182026	Change
Stock Price ($)	321.84	100.51	-68.8%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	885	1,038	17.2%
Net Income Margin (%)	13.2%	39.9%	201.4%
P/E Multiple	125.3	11.3	-91.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	46	46	-1.7%
Cumulative Contribution			-68.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026

	Return	Correlation
DUOL	-68.8%
Market (SPY)	-2.9%	27.9%
Sector (XLY)	0.7%	29.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -67.6% change in DUOL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -92.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	3312025	4182026	Change
Stock Price ($)	310.54	100.51	-67.6%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	748	1,038	38.7%
Net Income Margin (%)	11.8%	39.9%	237.0%
P/E Multiple	155.2	11.3	-92.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	44	46	-4.6%
Cumulative Contribution			-67.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026

	Return	Correlation
DUOL	-67.6%
Market (SPY)	16.3%	38.4%
Sector (XLY)	22.7%	35.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -29.5% change in DUOL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	3312023	4182026	Change
Stock Price ($)	142.59	100.51	-29.5%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	369	1,038	180.8%
P/S Multiple	15.5	4.5	-71.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	40	46	-13.2%
Cumulative Contribution			-29.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026

	Return	Correlation
DUOL	-29.5%
Market (SPY)	63.3%	41.4%
Sector (XLY)	64.7%	39.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
DUOL Return	-24%	-33%	219%	43%	-46%	-41%	-26%
Peers Return	-19%	-20%	41%	-11%	-22%	8%	-32%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	3%	87%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
DUOL Win Rate	50%	50%	58%	58%	33%	25%
Peers Win Rate	36%	43%	62%	42%	47%	55%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	50%
Max Drawdowns [4]
DUOL Max Drawdown	-31%	-41%	-0%	-30%	-48%	-49%
Peers Max Drawdown	-36%	-41%	-22%	-47%	-36%	-23%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%	-7%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COUR, UDMY, CHGG, LRN, ATGE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	DUOL	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-68.9%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	221.7%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	547 days	464 days

Compare to COUR, UDMY, CHGG, LRN, ATGE

In The Past

Duolingo's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.7% gain to breakeven.

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About Duolingo (DUOL)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

Duolingo, Inc. develops a language-learning website and mobile app in the United States and China. The company offers courses in 40 different languages, including Spanish, English, French, Japanese, German, Italian, Chinese, Portuguese, and others. It also provides a digital language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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Here are a few analogies for Duolingo:

Spotify for language learning
The Khan Academy for languages

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Language Learning Platform: A website and mobile app offering interactive courses in over 40 different languages.
Duolingo English Test (DET): A digital language proficiency assessment exam used for academic and professional certification.

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Duolingo (DUOL) primarily serves individual customers rather than other businesses.

Major Categories of Individual Customers:

Casual and Dedicated Language Learners: This is the largest customer segment, encompassing individuals who use the Duolingo mobile app and website to learn new languages. These learners are motivated by a variety of personal reasons, such as travel, cultural immersion, hobbies, or general self-improvement. This category includes both users of the free, ad-supported platform and subscribers to Duolingo Super (formerly Duolingo Plus) for an ad-free experience and additional features.
Students and Academics seeking Language Learning Support: This category includes students of all ages (from K-12 to higher education) who utilize Duolingo to supplement their formal language education. Their usage may be self-initiated or part of a structured curriculum where educators use tools like "Duolingo for Schools" to track progress. Educators themselves also fall into this category as users who leverage the platform to enhance their teaching methods.
Individuals Needing Language Proficiency Certification: These customers are individuals who purchase and take the Duolingo English Test (DET) to certify their English language proficiency. This certification is often required for academic admissions to universities, for employment opportunities, or for immigration purposes. While they may also be language learners, their primary interaction with Duolingo in this context is as a test-taker seeking official proof of their language skills.

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Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

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Luis von Ahn - Co-founder, Chief Executive Officer & Board Chairman

Luis von Ahn co-founded Duolingo and currently serves as its Chief Executive Officer and Board Chairman. He is also recognized as the founder of reCAPTCHA, a company he sold to Google in 2009. Prior to his work with Duolingo, von Ahn was a professor in the Computer Science Department at Carnegie Mellon University.

Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

Gillian Munson was appointed as Duolingo's Chief Financial Officer, effective February 23, 2026. She has been a member of Duolingo's Board of Directors since 2019. Ms. Munson previously held CFO positions at Vimeo, Iora Health, Inc., and XO Group Inc.

Severin Hacker - Co-founder, Chief Technology Officer & Board Director

Severin Hacker is a co-founder and the Chief Technology Officer of Duolingo. He plays a key role in leading the company's technological innovation and product development, including the integration of advanced machine learning, data analytics, and gamification. Hacker holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon University.

Natalie Glance - Chief Engineering Officer

Natalie Glance serves as Duolingo's Chief Engineering Officer, overseeing technology scaling, product direction, and AI innovation. She is credited with fostering a culture of rapid experimentation and building scalable engineering processes within the company. Before joining Duolingo in 2015, Glance worked as an Engineering Manager at Google. She was also a co-founder of BlogPulse.

Cem Kansu - Chief Product Officer

Cem Kansu is the Chief Product Officer at Duolingo, where he is responsible for product management and innovation. His contributions include building the company's freemium model, scaling annual revenues, and pioneering new AI-driven subscription offerings. Prior to Duolingo, Kansu held product management roles at Google and Jawbone.

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The key risks to Duolingo's business (DUOL) include intense competition and challenges in user engagement and retention, the potential for disruption from artificial intelligence (AI), and its reliance on third-party app distribution platforms.

1. Intense Competition and User Engagement/Retention

The online language learning industry is highly competitive, characterized by low switching costs for users and a constant influx of new products and market entrants. Duolingo faces a significant risk if it fails to attract new users, retain existing ones, or if current users reduce their engagement with its products. A decline in user engagement or a failure to convert free users into paying subscribers could materially harm Duolingo's revenue, financial results, and overall business. Recent reports have indicated a deceleration in the growth rate of daily active users, underscoring the ongoing challenge in sustaining high levels of user growth and engagement.

2. Potential for Disruption from Artificial Intelligence (AI)

The increasing effectiveness of artificial intelligence poses a significant threat to Duolingo's business model. Concerns are growing that readily available AI tools for translation and language learning could diminish the perceived need for dedicated language learning applications like Duolingo. This risk of "AI-driven disruption" is considered a primary challenge to the company's long-term growth and its investment thesis. Although Duolingo has integrated AI into premium offerings such as Duolingo Max, the broader impact of AI on the necessity of its core offerings remains a key risk.

3. Reliance on Third-Party Platforms

Duolingo's business heavily relies on third-party platforms, specifically the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, for the distribution of its products and the collection of payments. Any changes in the terms, conditions, or pricing policies of these major platforms, or disruptions to their services, could negatively affect Duolingo's operations and financial performance. This dependence limits Duolingo's control over its user experience and financial stability, making it vulnerable to decisions made by these platform providers.

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The rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs), represent a clear emerging threat. This technology can provide highly personalized, adaptive, and dynamic language tutoring experiences that may offer a fundamentally different and potentially superior approach to language acquisition compared to Duolingo's current structured methodology. Additionally, increasingly sophisticated real-time translation and interpretation capabilities powered by AI could diminish the perceived necessity or value of human language proficiency for practical communication, potentially impacting the overall market for language learning applications.

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Duolingo operates in significant global addressable markets for its main products and services.

Language-Learning Website and Mobile App (Online Language Learning Market)

The global online language learning market was valued at approximately USD 22.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.83 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6% from 2025 to 2030.
Another estimate places the global online language learning market at USD 25.78 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 98.65 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 16.08% during 2026-2034.
The total addressable market (TAM) for direct-to-consumer language learning is estimated at USD 115 billion.
The U.S. online language learning market was estimated at USD 7.35 billion in 2025.

Digital Language Proficiency Assessment Exam (English Proficiency Test Market)

The global English proficiency test market was valued at USD 3.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 7.46 billion by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 9.44%.
Another report states the global English Proficiency Test market size as USD 2.97 billion in 2024, expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.70% from 2024 to 2031.
The North American English Proficiency Test market was valued at USD 1.19 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 2.39 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.2%.

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Duolingo (NASDAQ: DUOL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives:

Accelerated User Growth: Duolingo is prioritizing aggressive growth in its daily active users (DAUs), aiming to nearly double its DAUs from 52.7 million in Q4 2025 to 100 million by 2028. This "user-growth first" strategy involves enhancing the free user experience to drive word-of-mouth acquisition and engagement, even if it means moderating near-term financial growth.
Expansion into New Subjects: The company is diversifying its educational offerings beyond languages by investing in and expanding subjects such as Math, Music, and Chess. These new learning verticals are considered "next growth engines" and are already being monetized, broadening Duolingo's total addressable market and attracting new user segments.
AI-Driven Product Innovation and Personalization: Duolingo is heavily leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its platform. AI is integral to creating new content more rapidly, enabling the launch of numerous language courses in a shorter timeframe, and providing advanced personalization features. This includes AI-powered conversational tools, like the Video Call feature for Duolingo Max subscribers, which aim to improve user engagement, retention, and the value proposition of premium subscriptions.
Growth in Paid Subscribers and Premium Tiers: While the immediate focus is on expanding the overall user base, a key long-term revenue driver remains the conversion of free users into paid subscribers and the increased adoption of higher-priced tiers, such as Duolingo Max and the Family Plan. The introduction of exclusive AI-powered features for premium subscribers is designed to encourage these upgrades.
Improved Free User Experience: Duolingo's commitment to significantly improving the free user experience is a foundational driver for future revenue. By making the free product more engaging and effective, the company expects to boost organic user acquisition and retention, creating a larger funnel of active users who may eventually convert to paid subscriptions.

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Share Repurchases

Duolingo's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $400 million on February 26, 2026.
The program reflects a commitment to capital allocation, including returning capital to stockholders and managing dilution.
Historically, the company has focused on reinvesting in growth opportunities rather than equity repurchases.

Share Issuance

Duolingo has primarily financed its operations through revenues and equity issuance.
Net total equity issued/repurchased for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $0.039 billion.
A shelf registration for 2,331,377 shares related to employee plans was noted in March 2026.

Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) totaled approximately $10.73 million USD.
Quarterly purchases of property, plant & equipment have been modest, indicating continued platform improvements without heavy capital outlays.
The company executed an amendment to its Pittsburgh headquarters lease, increasing its leased space and extending the term through 2036 to support long-term operational needs.

Interactive Breakdown

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Super Micro Computer

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for DUOL: 38.7%)

MU (85.5%)

Micron Technology

NVDA (65.5%)

NVIDIA

PLTR (56.2%)

Palantir Technologies

APH (51.7%)

Amphenol

LLY (44.7%)

Eli Lilly

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 41.1%)

NU (63129.4%)

NVDA (101.8%)

NVIDIA

KKR (65.2%)

KKR

HOOD (49.0%)

Robinhood Markets

MU (45.3%)

Micron Technology

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for DUOL: 13.1%)

NVDA (60.4%)

NVIDIA

MSFT (46.7%)

Microsoft

AVGO (41.5%)

Broadcom

AAPL (32.4%)

Apple

GOOGL (32.0%)

Alphabet

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for DUOL: 37.4%)

META (57.6%)

Meta Platforms

MSFT (52.5%)

Microsoft

NVDA (47.6%)

NVIDIA

AVGO (43.5%)

Broadcom

GOOGL (40.9%)

Alphabet

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for DUOL: 34.7%)

V (55.4%)

Visa

MA (50.1%)

Mastercard

PLTR (46.9%)

Palantir Technologies

NVDA (44.8%)

NVIDIA

AVGO (42.3%)

Broadcom

Higher Total Yield (Value for DUOL: 8.9%)

VZ (14.6%)

Verizon Communications

TD (12.3%)

Toronto-Dominion Bank

T (11.7%)

AT&T

WFC (10.6%)

Wells Fargo

MRK (8.9%)

Merck

Best Bets in Consumer Discretionary

What You Pay

P/EBIT (Value for DUOL: 34.4x)

ABNB (33.6x)

Airbnb

BKNG (18.2x)

Booking

DUOL (34.4x)

Duolingo

MCD (17.7x)

McDonald's

ETSY (16.3x)

Etsy

LOPE (15.5x)

Grand Canyon Education

ALSN (12.0x)

Allison Transmission

PRDO (10.3x)

Perdoceo Education

DECK (12.0x)

Deckers Outdoor

GRMN (27.4x)

Garmin

P/E (Value for DUOL: 11.3x)

ABNB (34.0x)

Airbnb

BKNG (28.5x)

Booking

DUOL (11.3x)

Duolingo

MCD (25.9x)

McDonald's

ETSY (37.4x)

Etsy

LOPE (22.2x)

Grand Canyon Education

ALSN (17.3x)

Allison Transmission

PRDO (14.4x)

Perdoceo Education

DECK (15.6x)

Deckers Outdoor

GRMN (30.9x)

Garmin

What You Get

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 41.1%)

ABNB (13.4%)

Airbnb

BKNG (16.5%)

Booking

DUOL (41.1%)

Duolingo

MCD (5.1%)

McDonald's

ETSY (4.0%)

Etsy

LOPE (6.7%)

Grand Canyon Education

ALSN (3.1%)

Allison Transmission

PRDO (7.4%)

Perdoceo Education

DECK (14.7%)

Deckers Outdoor

GRMN (14.4%)

Garmin

Rev Chg LTM (Value for DUOL: 38.7%)

ABNB (10.3%)

Airbnb

BKNG (13.4%)

Booking

DUOL (38.7%)

Duolingo

MCD (3.7%)

McDonald's

ETSY (2.7%)

Etsy

LOPE (7.1%)

Grand Canyon Education

ALSN (-6.7%)

Allison Transmission

PRDO (24.2%)

Perdoceo Education

DECK (9.2%)

Deckers Outdoor

GRMN (15.1%)

Garmin

Rev Chg Q (Value for DUOL: 35.0%)

ABNB (12.0%)

Airbnb

BKNG (16.0%)

Booking

DUOL (35.0%)

Duolingo

MCD (9.7%)

McDonald's

ETSY (3.5%)

Etsy

LOPE (5.3%)

Grand Canyon Education

ALSN (-7.4%)

Allison Transmission

PRDO (20.0%)

Perdoceo Education

DECK (7.1%)

Deckers Outdoor

GRMN (16.6%)

Garmin

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 32.1%)

ABNB (39.2%)

Airbnb

BKNG (33.3%)

Booking

DUOL (32.1%)

Duolingo

MCD (27.0%)

McDonald's

ETSY (23.9%)

Etsy

LOPE (22.2%)

Grand Canyon Education

ALSN (21.4%)

Allison Transmission

PRDO (21.2%)

Perdoceo Education

DECK (20.8%)

Deckers Outdoor

GRMN (20.4%)

Garmin

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 14%, alpha of 2.9%, and sharpe of 0.61

Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Cash Machine Trading Cheap - Duolingo Stock Set to Run?	04/02/2026
2	Cash Rich, Low Price - Duolingo Stock to Break Out?	03/11/2026
3	Duolingo Stock Pre-Market (-21%) : Weak Guidance and Strategic Pivot to User Growth	02/27/2026
4	Would You Still Hold Duolingo Stock If It Fell Another 30%?	01/13/2026
5	Duolingo Earnings Notes	12/29/2026
6	Is 24.3% Fall In Duolingo (DUOL) Stock A Buying Opportunity?	10/31/2025
7	Is 21.5% Fall In Duolingo (DUOL) Stock A Buying Opportunity?	10/30/2025
8	Is The 22.8% Decline In Duolingo (DUOL) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity?	09/16/2025
9	ARTICLES
10	Cash Machine Trading Cheap – Duolingo Stock Set to Run?	04/02/2026
11	Could Duolingo Stock’s Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally?	03/11/2026
12	Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low	01/31/2026
13	Is Duolingo Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?	01/13/2026
14	Buy Duolingo Stock On This Dip?	11/11/2025

	Title
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Cash Machine Trading Cheap - Duolingo Stock Set to Run?
2	Cash Rich, Low Price - Duolingo Stock to Break Out?
3	Duolingo Stock Pre-Market (-21%) : Weak Guidance and Strategic Pivot to User Growth
4	Would You Still Hold Duolingo Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
5	Duolingo Earnings Notes
6	Is 24.3% Fall In Duolingo (DUOL) Stock A Buying Opportunity?
7	Is 21.5% Fall In Duolingo (DUOL) Stock A Buying Opportunity?
8	Is The 22.8% Decline In Duolingo (DUOL) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity?
9	ARTICLES
10	Cash Machine Trading Cheap – Duolingo Stock Set to Run?
11	Could Duolingo Stock’s Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally?
12	Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low
13	Is Duolingo Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
14	Buy Duolingo Stock On This Dip?

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to DUOL.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
SKY_3312026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03312026	SKY	Champion Homes	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
DPZ_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	DPZ	Domino's Pizza	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	3.1%	3.1%	0.0%
ETSY_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	ETSY	Etsy	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	5.6%	5.6%	0.0%
OLLI_3272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	03272026	OLLI	Ollie's Bargain Outlet	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	3.1%	3.1%	0.0%
PATK_3272026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2	03272026	PATK	Patrick Industries	Insider	Insider Buys \| Low D/EStrong Insider Buying Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	3.4%	3.4%	-1.6%
DUOL_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE	11072025	DUOL	Duolingo	Dip Buy	DB \| CFO/Rev \| Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap	-51.0%	-51.0%	-53.2%

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FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.5	12.6%	-9.6%
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LION	Lionsgate Studios	3.6	12.5%	36.4%
ROAD	Construction Partners	7.0	12.0%	15.7%
MSTR	Strategy	49.0	11.8%	9.6%
KMTS	Kestra Medical Technologies	1.3	11.8%	-14.0%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
BMI	Badger Meter	3.4	-24.1%	-33.6%
PBF	PBF Energy	4.3	-12.8%	38.1%
DK	Delek US	2.2	-12.3%	26.4%
LYB	LyondellBasell Industries	21.3	-12.0%	54.9%
DOW	Dow	25.6	-10.8%	54.1%
IPI	Intrepid Potash	0.5	-10.4%	26.9%
CVI	CVR Energy	3.0	-10.4%	15.7%
PARR	Par Pacific	2.8	-10.0%	63.1%
NFLX	Netflix	411.5	-9.7%	3.8%
CF	CF Industries	17.6	-9.6%	46.5%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
AVNS	Avanos Medical	1.1	73.6%	119.2%
CAR	Avis Budget	17.4	64.7%	284.9%
IONQ	IonQ	16.0	60.1%	2.7%
RVMD	Revolution Medicines	28.9	54.1%	86.6%
QBTS	D-Wave Quantum	7.7	52.2%	-17.1%
NN	NextNav	3.1	49.4%	37.2%
HIMS	Hims & Hers Health	6.5	48.3%	-11.2%
TSHA	Taysha Gene Therapies	2.3	43.2%	16.9%
BAND	Bandwidth	0.7	42.6%	48.9%
SYRE	Spyre Therapeutics	5.4	42.3%	122.9%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
REPL	Replimune	0.2	-54.4%	-77.7%
IIIN	Insteel Industries	0.5	-28.0%	-17.1%
BMI	Badger Meter	3.4	-25.6%	-33.6%
SENEA	Seneca Foods	1.0	-16.2%	26.8%
HPK	HighPeak Energy	0.7	-15.7%	12.8%
REPX	Riley Exploration Permian	0.7	-15.4%	28.6%
LCID	Lucid	2.4	-14.9%	-30.9%
KMX	CarMax	6.0	-12.5%	5.8%
WINA	Winmark	1.4	-12.3%	-3.6%
ALLO	Allogene Therapeutics	0.5	-12.1%	74.5%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
CAR	Avis Budget	17.4	386.5%	284.9%
SATL	Satellogic	0.9	134.1%	270.6%
AEHR	Aehr Test Systems	2.5	131.0%	315.4%
APLS	Apellis Pharmaceuticals	5.2	128.6%	62.8%
CBIO	Crescent Biopharma	0.6	105.6%	79.4%
KOD	Kodiak Sciences	2.4	103.4%	60.6%
FBYD	Falcons Beyond Global	0.5	103.1%	-9.6%
YSS	York Space Systems	4.5	96.3%	6.3%
FLY	Firefly Aerospace	7.0	88.5%	95.4%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	1.7	88.0%	287.0%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
PIPR	Piper Sandler Cos	6.1	-69.4%	8.7%
REPL	Replimune	0.2	-67.9%	-77.7%
VRDN	Viridian Therapeutics	1.4	-46.6%	-52.4%
MAZE	Maze Therapeutics	1.3	-42.0%	-32.2%
BUR	Burford Capital	1.1	-39.7%	-44.4%
WVE	WAVE Life Sciences	1.4	-37.1%	-55.9%
TE	T1 Energy	0.8	-31.4%	-24.7%
BTU	Peabody Energy	3.1	-29.3%	-13.4%
CSIQ	Canadian Solar	0.9	-28.7%	-44.5%
LCID	Lucid	2.4	-26.6%	-30.9%

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	DUOL	COUR	UDMY	CHGG	LRN	ATGE	Median
Name	Duolingo	Coursera	Udemy	Chegg	Stride	Adtalem .
Mkt Price	100.51	6.36	5.07	1.05	98.44	-	6.36
Mkt Cap	4.7	1.1	0.7	0.1	4.2	-	1.1
Rev LTM	1,038	758	790	377	2,519	-	790
Op Inc LTM	136	-78	-3	-115	463	-	-3
FCF LTM	360	89	70	-13	179	-	89
FCF 3Y Avg	255	60	31	67	199	-	67
CFO LTM	388	109	88	15	248	-	109
CFO 3Y Avg	276	78	46	129	263	-	129

Growth & Margins

	DUOL	COUR	UDMY	CHGG	LRN	ATGE	Median
Name	Duolingo	Coursera	Udemy	Chegg	Stride	Adtalem .
Rev Chg LTM	38.7%	9.0%	0.4%	-39.0%	14.9%	-	9.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	41.1%	13.2%	8.1%	-19.8%	12.7%	-	12.7%
Rev Chg Q	35.0%	9.9%	-3.0%	-49.4%	7.5%	-	7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	7.6%	2.4%	-0.7%	-15.8%	1.8%	-	1.8%
Op Inc Chg LTM	116.6%	24.9%	96.5%	-91.8%	38.4%	-	38.4%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg	256.1%	21.8%	52.5%	-300.4%	47.1%	-	47.1%
Op Mgn LTM	13.1%	-10.3%	-0.3%	-30.5%	18.4%	-	-0.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	6.3%	-16.4%	-8.3%	-16.4%	14.9%	-	-8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	2.1%	-0.9%	0.3%	-6.4%	0.6%	-	0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM	37.4%	14.3%	11.1%	4.1%	9.8%	-	11.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	34.8%	10.9%	5.9%	19.6%	12.0%	-	12.0%
FCF/Rev LTM	34.7%	11.8%	8.9%	-3.4%	7.1%	-	8.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	32.1%	8.3%	3.9%	9.2%	9.0%	-	9.0%

Valuation

	DUOL	COUR	UDMY	CHGG	LRN	ATGE	Median
Name	Duolingo	Coursera	Udemy	Chegg	Stride	Adtalem .
Mkt Cap	4.7	1.1	0.7	0.1	4.2	-	1.1
P/S	4.5	1.4	0.9	0.3	1.7	-	1.4
P/Op Inc	34.4	-13.6	-286.3	-1.0	9.2	-	-1.0
P/EBIT	34.4	-13.6	81.4	-1.2	9.9	-	9.9
P/E	11.3	-20.9	193.9	-1.1	13.3	-	11.3
P/CFO	12.0	9.8	8.4	7.4	17.1	-	9.8
Total Yield	8.9%	-4.8%	0.5%	-90.0%	7.5%	-	0.5%
Dividend Yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-	0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	2.6%	4.4%	3.6%	10.2%	6.2%	-	4.4%
D/E	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.1	-	0.0
Net D/E	-0.2	-0.7	-0.5	-0.0	-0.0	-	-0.2

Returns

	DUOL	COUR	UDMY	CHGG	LRN	ATGE	Median
Name	Duolingo	Coursera	Udemy	Chegg	Stride	Adtalem .
1M Rtn	0.9%	5.3%	6.7%	85.3%	12.6%	-	6.7%
3M Rtn	-33.1%	1.1%	1.2%	22.8%	41.2%	-	1.2%
6M Rtn	-69.0%	-36.6%	-23.2%	-17.3%	-32.1%	-	-32.1%
12M Rtn	-69.2%	-13.0%	-17.2%	105.9%	-27.5%	-	-17.2%
3Y Rtn	-29.2%	-38.6%	-40.4%	-94.0%	157.1%	-	-38.6%
1M Excs Rtn	-7.1%	1.0%	1.7%	77.6%	5.6%	-	1.7%
3M Excs Rtn	-37.5%	-4.5%	-4.0%	16.7%	38.4%	-	-4.0%
6M Excs Rtn	-77.4%	-44.8%	-31.0%	-24.8%	-39.5%	-	-39.5%
12M Excs Rtn	-101.1%	-40.8%	-50.4%	83.7%	-60.5%	-	-50.4%
3Y Excs Rtn	-99.7%	-116.5%	-116.9%	-167.9%	86.3%	-	-116.5%

Comparison Analyses

	Title
0	How Does Duolingo Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?

FDIC Bank Data

Bank Capital

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Bank Deposits

null

Bank Assets

null

Bank Loans

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FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for Morenull

Financials

Annual
Quarterly

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Period End	12/31/2025	12/31/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020
Filing Date	2/27/2026	2/27/2026	2/28/2025	2/29/2024	3/1/2023	3/4/2022	7/28/2021
Key Financials
Total Revenue	1,038	1,038	748	531	369	251	162
EBITDA	150	150	73	-6	-60	-57	-14
Operating Income	136	136	63	-13	-65	-60	-16
Net Income	414	414	89	16	-60	-60	-16
EPS	9.02	9.05	2.04	0.39	-1.51	-2.57	-0.49
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	38.7%	38.7%	40.8%	43.7%	47.3%	55.1%	128.5%
EBITDA Growth	104.2%	104.2%	1291.6%	89.8%	-5.3%	-316.4%	-18.1%
Operating Income Growth	116.6%	116.6%	572.1%	79.7%	-8.6%	-274.8%	-24.1%
Net Income Growth	367.5%	367.5%	451.3%	127.0%	0.9%	-281.2%	-16.4%
Margins
EBITDA Margin	14.5%	14.5%	9.8%	-1.2%	-16.3%	-22.8%	-8.5%
Operating Income Margin	13.1%	13.1%	8.4%	-2.5%	-17.6%	-23.9%	-9.9%
Net Income Margin	39.9%	39.9%	11.8%	3.0%	-16.1%	-24.0%	-9.8%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	1,140	1,140	878	748	608	554	120
Total Debt	94	94	55	21	28	32	9
Net Debt / (Cash)	-1,047	-1,047	-823	-727	-580	-521	-111
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	388	388	286	154	54	9	18
Free Cash from Operations	360	360	264	140	44	3	14
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Share Repurchases	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	1	-0

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1
Period End	12/31/2025	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023
Filing Date	2/27/2026	11/6/2025	8/7/2025	5/2/2025	2/28/2025	11/7/2024	8/8/2024	5/9/2024	2/29/2024	11/9/2023	8/9/2023	5/10/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	283	272	252	231	210	193	178	168	151	138	127	116
Ebitda	47	39	37	27	18	16	21	19	7	-3	-3	-7
Operating Income	43	35	33	24	14	14	19	16	5	-5	-5	-9
Net Income	42	292	45	35	14	23	24	27	12	3	4	-3
EPS	0.90	6.36	0.98	0.78	0.31	0.53	0.56	0.63	0.29	0.07	0.09	-0.06
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	1,038	964	885	811	748	689	634	583	531	484	442	404
Ebitda TTM	150	120	98	82	73	63	43	19	-6	-30	-45	-56
Operating Income TTM	136	106	84	70	63	54	35	12	-13	-36	-52	-62
Net Income TTM	414	386	117	97	89	87	66	46	16	-10	-31	-50
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	35.0%	41.1%	41.5%	37.7%	38.8%	39.9%	40.6%	44.9%	45.4%	43.3%	43.5%	42.4%
EBITDA Growth	169.4%	135.3%	75.7%	46.8%	156.6%	646.0%	748.2%	374.0%	140.9%	83.9%	76.7%	39.0%
Operating Income Growth	213.0%	159.0%	78.4%	43.5%	189.5%	390.7%	484.4%	293.0%	126.4%	76.8%	67.6%	28.1%
Net Income Growth	201.7%	1150.8%	83.9%	30.3%	14.8%	732.2%	553.7%	1144.0%	187.0%	115.2%	124.8%	78.8%
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	16.7%	14.2%	14.6%	11.8%	8.4%	8.5%	11.7%	11.0%	4.5%	-2.2%	-2.5%	-5.8%
Operating Income Margin	15.4%	12.9%	13.2%	10.2%	6.6%	7.0%	10.5%	9.8%	3.2%	-3.4%	-3.8%	-7.4%
Net Income Margin	14.8%	107.5%	17.8%	15.2%	6.6%	12.1%	13.7%	16.1%	8.0%	2.0%	2.9%	-2.2%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	1,140	1,121	1,098	999	878	881	888	830	748	702	679	641
Total Debt	94	93	94	55	55	55	55	54	21	26	27	28
Net Debt / (Cash)	-1,047	-1,028	-1,004	-945	-823	-826	-833	-776	-727	-676	-651	-613
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	107	84	91	106	83	56	62	84	49	38	37	30
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	388	364	336	308	286	251	233	208	154	116	87	63
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share Repurchases	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	1105.8%	425.2%	679.9%	237.2%	27.1%	36.7%	65.7%	53.6%	10.4%	-10.8%	-11.2%	-17.6%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	1120.4%	320.4%	404.6%	152.2%	42.5%	35.9%	33.3%	9.4%	-8.1%	-20.6%	-29.0%	-33.4%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022
Subscription	405	274	181	118
Advertising	50	45	39	27
Duolingo English Test	41	33	25	15
In-App Purchases	35	18
Other	1	1	7	2
Total	531	369	251	162

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$100.51
Market Cap ($ Bil)	4.7
First Trading Date	07/28/2021
Distance from 52W High	-81.4%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$102.52	$223.82
DMA Trend	down	down
Distance from DMA	-2.0%	-55.1%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	62.3%	65.4%
Downside Capture	1.21	1.22
Upside Capture	73.67	32.37
Correlation (SPY)	23.5%	26.2%

DUOL Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	0.79	1.35	1.17	1.43	1.36	1.65
Up Beta	0.53	2.21	2.56	1.02	1.49	1.44
Down Beta	1.69	-0.47	-0.31	1.05	1.25	1.73
Up Capture	42%	109%	19%	6%	41%	386%
Bmk +ve Days	7	16	27	65	139	424
Stock +ve Days	10	19	25	50	117	376
Down Capture	46%	229%	239%	220%	148%	112%
Bmk -ve Days	12	23	33	58	110	323
Stock -ve Days	12	23	38	76	134	374

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Based On 1-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with DUOL
DUOL	-69.2%	65.2%	-1.54	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	28.4%	19.5%	1.16	24.3%
Equity (SPY)	21.1%	12.9%	1.32	26.8%
Gold (GLD)	50.9%	27.5%	1.49	-7.3%
Commodities (DBC)	25.2%	16.2%	1.40	0.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)	17.5%	13.7%	0.93	14.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-7.8%	42.6%	-0.08	20.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 5-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with DUOL
DUOL	-6.3%	66.6%	0.17	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	7.2%	23.8%	0.26	42.5%
Equity (SPY)	10.8%	17.1%	0.49	40.4%
Gold (GLD)	22.6%	17.8%	1.04	2.1%
Commodities (DBC)	11.6%	18.8%	0.51	10.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)	4.4%	18.8%	0.14	26.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	5.2%	56.5%	0.31	21.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 10-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with DUOL
DUOL	-3.2%	66.6%	0.17	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	13.1%	22.0%	0.55	42.5%
Equity (SPY)	14.0%	17.9%	0.67	40.4%
Gold (GLD)	14.3%	15.9%	0.75	2.1%
Commodities (DBC)	8.5%	17.6%	0.40	10.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.6%	20.7%	0.24	26.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	68.4%	66.9%	1.07	21.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	8.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3152026	4.4%
Average Daily Volume	1.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	4.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity	46.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	17.2%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Would You Still Hold Duolingo Stock If It Fell Another 30%?

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
2/26/2026	-14.0%	-13.5%	-18.8%
11/5/2025	-25.5%	-28.2%	-20.0%
8/6/2025	13.7%	-4.6%	-21.1%
2/27/2025	-17.0%	-27.4%	-16.2%
11/6/2024	-1.0%	1.4%	15.6%
8/7/2024	10.9%	22.1%	29.0%
5/8/2024	-18.0%	-27.5%	-22.8%
2/28/2024	22.2%	8.6%	12.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	11	9	10
# Negative	7	9	8
Median Positive	10.9%	12.8%	26.6%
Median Negative	-14.0%	-13.5%	-19.4%
Max Positive	34.0%	36.3%	50.9%
Max Negative	-25.5%	-28.2%	-35.4%

	Forward Returns
2/26/2026	-14.0%	-13.5%	-18.8%
11/5/2025	-25.5%	-28.2%	-20.0%
8/6/2025	13.7%	-4.6%	-21.1%
2/27/2025	-17.0%	-27.4%	-16.2%
11/6/2024	-1.0%	1.4%	15.6%
8/7/2024	10.9%	22.1%	29.0%
5/8/2024	-18.0%	-27.5%	-22.8%
2/28/2024	22.2%	8.6%	12.8%
11/8/2023	21.4%	22.6%	28.4%
8/8/2023	6.6%	-4.0%	14.9%
5/9/2023	10.0%	6.9%	17.2%
2/28/2023	22.2%	36.3%	50.9%
11/10/2022	-13.4%	-18.3%	-16.1%
8/4/2022	4.4%	5.4%	-5.9%
5/12/2022	34.0%	19.3%	25.8%
3/3/2022	4.6%	12.8%	34.0%
11/10/2021	2.3%	-4.6%	-35.4%
8/11/2021	-1.6%	-3.3%	27.5%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	11	9	10
# Negative	7	9	8
Median Positive	10.9%	12.8%	26.6%
Median Negative	-14.0%	-13.5%	-19.4%
Max Positive	34.0%	36.3%	50.9%
Max Negative	-25.5%	-28.2%	-35.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
12/31/2025	02/27/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/06/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	08/07/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	05/02/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/28/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	11/07/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/08/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	05/09/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	02/29/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/09/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	08/09/2023	10-Q
03/31/2023	05/10/2023	10-Q
12/31/2022	03/01/2023	10-K
09/30/2022	11/14/2022	10-Q
06/30/2022	08/05/2022	10-Q
03/31/2022	05/13/2022	10-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/12/2026

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Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

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Insider Activity

Expand for More

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	11202025	172.74	10,000	1,727,441	12,438	Form
2	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	11192025	177.95	1,282	228,132	5,882,315	Form
3	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	11192025	175.87	1,514	266,265	5,547,246	Form
4	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	11192025	177.95	2,799	498,082	7,215,161	Form
5	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	11192025	175.76	3,059	537,643	6,588,628	Form

Collapse to Preview

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	11202025	172.74	10,000	1,727,441	12,438	Form
2	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	11192025	177.95	1,282	228,132	5,882,315	Form
3	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	11192025	175.87	1,514	266,265	5,547,246	Form
4	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	11192025	177.95	2,799	498,082	7,215,161	Form
5	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	11192025	175.76	3,059	537,643	6,588,628	Form
6	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	11192025	177.95	2,534	450,925	20,221,704	Form
7	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	11192025	175.79	2,471	434,366	19,541,363	Form
8	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	11182025	177.95	1,444	256,960	22,001,026	Form
9	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	11062025	263.13	10,000	2,631,299	18,945	Form
10	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	10222025	314.72	10,000	3,147,198	22,660	Form
11	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	10072025	321.63	10,000	3,216,303	23,157	Form
12	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	10032025	312.30	3,283	1,025,265	36,279,645	Form
13	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	9222025	288.94	10,000	2,889,373	20,803	Form
14	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	9092025	268.55	10,000	2,685,462	19,335	Form
15	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	8282025	321.36	1,515	486,860	10,488,548	Form
16	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	8282025	317.39	10,937	3,471,322	13,757,377	Form
17	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	8212025	344.56	10,000	3,445,587	24,808	Form
18	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	8192025	367.09	2,471	907,091	43,919,585	Form
19	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	8182025	329.03	1,282	421,816	11,237,362	Form
20	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	8182025	329.03	2,797	920,297	17,407,003	Form
21	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	8182025	329.03	2,533	833,433	40,178,511	Form
22	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	8182025	329.03	1,444	475,119	39,509,922	Form
23	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	8072025	344.41	10,000	3,444,076	24,797	Form
24	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	7222025	360.33	10,000	3,603,336	25,944	Form
25	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	7092025	392.89	10,000	3,928,885	28,288	Form
26	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	7022025	402.58	2,709	1,090,581	51,105,154	Form
27	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	6232025	471.20	10,000	4,711,993	33,926	Form
28	Shelton, James H		Direct	Sell	6162025	476.85	895	426,777	2,028,026	Form
29	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	6062025	525.10	10,000	5,251,039	37,807	Form
30	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	5202025	524.70	10,000	5,247,039	37,779	Form
31	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	5192025	528.35	3,573	1,887,802	30,762,248	Form
32	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	5192025	528.37	3,267	1,726,186	68,505,319	Form
33	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	5192025	526.94	2,635	1,388,480	19,067,234	Form
34	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	5162025	531.71	1,257	668,359	20,640,982	Form
35	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	5162025	531.71	1,635	869,346	64,615,526	Form
36	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	5162025	531.71	3,039	1,615,867	70,675,425	Form
37	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	5162025	531.71	3,304	1,756,770	32,857,551	Form
38	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	5072025	495.95	10,000	4,959,527	35,709	Form
39	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	4302025	395.00	5,000	1,975,000	46,927,975	Form
40	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	4242025	367.65	10,000	3,676,456	45,516,367	Form
41	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	4232025	314.36	10,000	3,143,601	22,634	Form
42	Von, Ahn Luis	President & CEO, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	4172025	327.41	8,000			Form
43	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	4092025	292.43	10,000	2,924,302	21,055	Form
44	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	4022025	319.59	3,482	1,112,805	40,667,875	Form
45	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	3262025	320.02	5,351	1,712,448	42,820,798	Form
46	Munson, Gillian		Direct	Sell	3212025	310.00	5,000	1,550,000	1,094,300	Form
47	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	3212025	298.25	10,000	2,982,515	21,474	Form
48	Shelton, James H		Direct	Sell	3182025	300.68	20,000	6,013,605	1,547,902	Form
49	Von, Ahn Luis	President & CEO, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	3182025	293.80	8,000			Form
50	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	3072025	290.59	9,020	2,621,157	37,990,206	Form
51	Hacker, Severin	Chief Tech Officer, Co-Founder	Direct	Sell	3062025	290.54	10,000	2,905,357	20,919	Form
52	Meese, Robert	Chief Business Officer	Direct	Sell	2192026	110.06	1,000	110,060	13,497,318	Form
53	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	2192026	110.06	1,870	205,812	3,920,007	Form
54	Skaruppa, Matthew	Chief Financial Officer	Direct	Sell	2192026	113.52	3,986	452,492	3,590,760	Form
55	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	2192026	110.06	896	98,614	3,571,007	Form
56	Chen, Stephen C	General Counsel	Direct	Sell	2192026	113.26	1,901	215,313	3,459,622	Form
57	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	2192026	110.06	1,741	191,614	13,088,886	Form
58	Glance, Natalie	Chief Engineering Officer	Direct	Sell	2192026	113.51	3,545	402,403	13,097,109	Form
59	Shelton, James H		Direct	Buy	3042026	99.76	5,000	498,792	960,873	Form

DUOL Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

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CONVICTION RATIONALE

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STOCK ARCHETYPE

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Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.

INVESTMENT THESIS

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Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

PRIMARY RISK

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Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

Key KPI Watchlist

KPI	Threshold	Rationale

Core Investment Debate

BULL VIEW

CORE TENSION

PREVAILING SENTIMENT

BEAR VIEW

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts

Timeline	Event & Metric To Watch

Key Events in Last 6 Months

Date	Event	Stock Impact

Risk Management

Position Sizing

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Diversification Alternatives

How Is The Market Pricing DUOL?

What will confirm the thesis

What will damage the thesis

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Repricing Catalyst

What DUOL Makes & Who Pays

TTM figures based on

DUOL Evolution: Price Return by Era

① Structure

② Volume / Momentum

③ Catalyst

Combined Score

0 / 12

1 Price Structure & Trend · ▾

2 Momentum ▾

3 Relative Strength vs. SPY ▾

4 Institutional Footprint & Volume ▾

5 Volatility ▾

6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol ▾

7 Earnings Reaction History ▾

8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾

Pillar	Score
① Structure	0
② Vol / Mom	0
③ Catalyst	0

ℹ Bull Pillars: 0 · Bear Pillars: 0 · Combined Score: 0 →

External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Duolingo (DUOL)

Market Price (4/19/2026): $100.58 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Duolingo (DUOL)

Market Price (4/19/2026): $100.58Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

How Low Can It Go

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

About Duolingo (DUOL)

Major Categories of Individual Customers:

1. Intense Competition and User Engagement/Retention

2. Potential for Disruption from Artificial Intelligence (AI)

3. Reliance on Third-Party Platforms

Language-Learning Website and Mobile App (Online Language Learning Market)

Digital Language Proficiency Assessment Exam (English Proficiency Test Market)

Share Repurchases

Share Issuance

Capital Expenditures

Interactive Breakdown

Better Bets vs. Duolingo (DUOL)

INDUSTRY: Education Services

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for DUOL: 38.7%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for DUOL: 13.1%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for DUOL: 8.9%)

SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for DUOL: 41.1% | 4.5x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for DUOL: 41.1% | 34.4x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for DUOL: 38.7%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 41.1%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for DUOL: 13.1%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for DUOL: 37.4%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for DUOL: 34.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for DUOL: 8.9%)

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for DUOL: 41.1% | 4.5x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for DUOL: 41.1% | 34.4x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for DUOL: 38.7%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 41.1%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for DUOL: 13.1%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for DUOL: 37.4%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for DUOL: 34.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for DUOL: 8.9%)

Best Bets in Consumer Discretionary

P/EBIT (Value for DUOL: 34.4x)

P/E (Value for DUOL: 11.3x)

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 41.1%)

Rev Chg LTM (Value for DUOL: 38.7%)

Rev Chg Q (Value for DUOL: 35.0%)

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for DUOL: 32.1%)

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Financials

Market Price (4/19/2026): $100.58 | Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Market Price (4/19/2026): $100.58
Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services