Duolingo (DUOL)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $186.92 | Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Duolingo (DUOL)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $186.92Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.9x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 81x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Key risksDUOL key risks include [1] slowing user growth and rising acquisition costs, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.9x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 81x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Key risksDUOL key risks include [1] slowing user growth and rising acquisition costs, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DUOL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -37.6% stock movement for Duolingo (DUOL) from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Numerous analyst downgrades and significant price target reductions contributed to negative sentiment.
Several investment firms lowered their ratings and price targets for Duolingo during this period. For instance, Goldman Sachs cut its price target from $425 to $250 and maintained a "neutral" rating on November 8, 2025. Similarly, DA Davidson reduced its price objective from $300 to $220 in early November and further to $205 by December 3, 2025. Wells Fargo & Company set an "underweight" rating and lowered its target from $239 to $185 on November 6, 2025, while Barclays significantly cut its price target to $230 from $390 on the same day. UBS also trimmed its price target from $500 to $450 in October 2025.
2. Concerns over slowing user growth and potential market saturation weighed on investor confidence.
Analysts expressed "persistent concerns about user acquisition trends and potential downside risk to future revenue and earnings estimates" as of early November 2025. UBS notably trimmed its daily active user (DAU) growth forecasts for both Q3 and Q4 2025, projecting figures below consensus expectations, and also reduced its fiscal year 2026 DAU growth projection. This indicated a more cautious outlook on future expansion and the risk of user growth slowing in core markets.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DUOL Return | � | � | -33% | 219% | 43% | -44% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -20% | 41% | -11% | -20% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DUOL Win Rate | � | 40% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 37% | 43% | 62% | 42% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DUOL Max Drawdown | � | � | -41% | -0% | -30% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -41% | -22% | -47% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COUR, UDMY, CHGG, LRN, ATGE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DUOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 547 days | 464 days |
Compare to CVLT, ACIW, BLKB, HI, ARRY
In The Past
Duolingo's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DUOL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | DUOL | Duolingo | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.6% | -7.6% | -16.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | DUOL | Duolingo | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.6% | -7.6% | -16.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Duolingo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 880 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50 |
| FCF LTM | 208 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 156 |
| CFO LTM | 243 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 200 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -35.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -25.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -40.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -40.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -45.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -25.5% | -28.2% | -20.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.7% | -4.6% | -21.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -17.0% | -27.4% | -16.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.0% | 1.4% | 15.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 10.9% | 22.1% | 29.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -18.0% | -27.5% | -22.8% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | 21.4% | 22.6% | 28.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 12.8% | 26.6% |
| Median Negative | -15.2% | -11.4% | -20.0% |
| Max Positive | 34.0% | 36.3% | 50.9% |
| Max Negative | -25.5% | -28.2% | -35.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Chen Stephen C. | General Counsel | 11192025 | Sell | 177.95 | 1,282 | 228,132 | 5,882,315 | Form |
| 1 | Skaruppa Matthew | Chief Financial Officer | 11192025 | Sell | 177.95 | 2,799 | 498,082 | 7,215,161 | Form |
| 2 | Glance Natalie | Chief Engineering Officer | 11192025 | Sell | 177.95 | 2,534 | 450,925 | 20,221,704 | Form |
| 3 | Meese Robert | Chief Business Officer | 11182025 | Sell | 177.95 | 1,444 | 256,960 | 22,001,026 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |