Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $50.02 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialty Stores
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $50.02Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialty Stores
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 8.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 8.0% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ASO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) stock moved by -6.4% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Academy Sports and Outdoors missed Q2 2025 earnings and revenue expectations.
The company reported its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 2, 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.82, falling short of the consensus estimate of $2.14. Revenue also came in at $1.60 billion, slightly below the anticipated $1.61 billion. This earnings miss led to an 8.5% drop in the stock upon the news, followed by an additional 3.4% decline on September 9, 2025.
2. The company experienced a contraction in its operating margin.
During the Q2 2025 earnings report, Academy Sports and Outdoors revealed that its operating margin had contracted to 10.8% from 12.3% in the same period last year. This indicated a weakening of profitability, despite some growth in total sales.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASO Return | - | 112% | 21% | 26% | -12% | -15% | 140% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 38% | -7% | 18% | 22% | 11% | 147% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASO Win Rate | 100% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 69% | 47% | 58% | 58% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASO Max Drawdown | - | -1% | -37% | -17% | -31% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -2% | -35% | -20% | -26% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: R, ABG, VSCO, DKS, FIVE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 148 days |
Compare to R, ABG, VSCO, DKS, FIVE
In The Past
Academy Sports and Outdoors's stock fell -44.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -44.9% loss requires a 81.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ASO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 55.1% | 12.8% | -1.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 55.1% | 12.8% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Academy Sports and Outdoors
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 170.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,486 |
| Op Inc LTM | 751 |
| FCF LTM | 294 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 279 |
| CFO LTM | 713 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 539 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 6.4 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 5.9 |
| Total Yield | 9.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9022025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6102025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3202025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9102024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6112024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3212024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11302023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3162023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12102021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |