Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $47.075 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialty Stores
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $47.075Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialty Stores
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 7.8% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% Key risksASO key risks include [1] a significant dependence on its physical retail footprint as consumer preferences shift online and [2] potential profit margin pressure from rising expenses tied to its new store expansion strategy. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 7.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Key risksASO key risks include [1] a significant dependence on its physical retail footprint as consumer preferences shift online and [2] potential profit margin pressure from rising expenses tied to its new store expansion strategy. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic Headwinds Impacting Discretionary Spending. Persistent inflationary pressures and elevated gas prices have continued to strain the American consumer, particularly lower-income households, leading to a reduction in discretionary spending. This broader economic trend negatively impacted the retail sector, and was cited by analysts as a key reason for lowering price targets for Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) despite the company's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings beat. The overall non-food retail sector experienced mixed performance in Q2 fiscal 2026, with low sales growth anticipated to continue for the remainder of fiscal 2026 as consumers prioritize essential spending over discretionary purchases.
2. Q1 Fiscal 2026 Revenue Miss and Subsequent Analyst Downgrades. Although Academy Sports and Outdoors reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.93 for fiscal Q1 2026 (period ended May 2, 2026), surpassing analyst estimates of $0.91 to $0.92, the company's revenue of $1.442 billion fell slightly short of analyst expectations, which ranged from $1.44 billion to $1.456 billion. This revenue miss, coupled with concerns regarding the inclusion of tariff refunds in the company's outlook and a cautious stance on comparable sales, led several analysts to reduce their price targets. For example, Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $50 from $56, and Goldman Sachs adjusted its target to $60 from $67.
Show more
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic Headwinds Impacting Discretionary Spending. Persistent inflationary pressures and elevated gas prices have continued to strain the American consumer, particularly lower-income households, leading to a reduction in discretionary spending. This broader economic trend negatively impacted the retail sector, and was cited by analysts as a key reason for lowering price targets for Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) despite the company's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings beat. The overall non-food retail sector experienced mixed performance in Q2 fiscal 2026, with low sales growth anticipated to continue for the remainder of fiscal 2026 as consumers prioritize essential spending over discretionary purchases.
2. Q1 Fiscal 2026 Revenue Miss and Subsequent Analyst Downgrades. Although Academy Sports and Outdoors reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.93 for fiscal Q1 2026 (period ended May 2, 2026), surpassing analyst estimates of $0.91 to $0.92, the company's revenue of $1.442 billion fell slightly short of analyst expectations, which ranged from $1.44 billion to $1.456 billion. This revenue miss, coupled with concerns regarding the inclusion of tariff refunds in the company's outlook and a cautious stance on comparable sales, led several analysts to reduce their price targets. For example, Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $50 from $56, and Goldman Sachs adjusted its target to $60 from $67.
3. Cautious Outlook and Moderating Comparable Sales Trends. Despite Academy Sports and Outdoors raising the lower end of its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance following its Q1 fiscal 2026 results, the company acknowledged the ongoing financial pressure on consumers. Analysts expressed caution over a lack of detailed commentary on comparable sales metrics, with some noting that comparable sales trends were likely negative quarter-to-date (after Q1). Wells Fargo specifically indicated that the company's guidance increase in April 2026 marked a high point before market conditions deteriorated, anticipating more challenging year-over-year comparisons ahead.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.4% change in ASO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.28 | 47.06 | -16.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,053 | 6,144 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.9 | 7.9 | -19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 64 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASO | -16.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.5% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.2% | 39.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in ASO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.67 | 47.06 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,012 | 6,144 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.8 | 7.9 | -10.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 64 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASO | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.7% | 29.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.5% change in ASO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.18 | 47.06 | 6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,921 | 6,144 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 6.2% | -4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.6 | 7.9 | 3.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 64 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASO | 6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.5% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.7% | 39.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.2% change in ASO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.42 | 47.06 | -10.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,311 | 6,144 | -2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 6.2% | -31.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.0 | 7.9 | 12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77 | 64 | 19.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ASO | -10.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.4% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 31.0% | 48.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASO Return | 112% | 21% | 26% | -12% | -12% | -2% | 146% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -13% | 11% | 17% | -25% | 4% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASO Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 40% | 55% | 50% | 38% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASO Max Drawdown | -23% | -37% | -36% | -39% | -42% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -42% | -33% | -30% | -48% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DKS, SPWH, DECK, COLM, YETI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Academy Sports and Outdoors's stock fell -33.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ASO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Academy Sports and Outdoors's stock fell -33.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO)
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is a prominent U.S. retailer specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreational products. The company operates a chain of large-format stores across 16 contiguous states, complemented by an e-commerce platform at academy.com. It serves as a comprehensive destination for active lifestyles, providing a wide array of gear and apparel for various sports, outdoor activities, and casual wear.
ASO's extensive product offerings cover virtually every segment of sports and outdoor recreation. This includes equipment and accessories for hunting, fishing, and marine activities; team sports like baseball, football, and basketball; and individual fitness pursuits. Beyond gear, Academy provides a vast selection of apparel for outdoor use, athletic performance, and everyday wear, alongside a comprehensive range of footwear for all ages and activities. They also offer home recreation items such as patio furniture and trampolines, and essential outdoor items like coolers and camping equipment, often featuring their own private label brands like Magellan Outdoors and BCG.
The primary customers for Academy Sports and Outdoors are individuals and families engaged in sports, outdoor activities, and general recreation across its geographic footprint. This includes enthusiasts for hunting and fishing, athletes participating in team and individual sports, fitness-conscious consumers, and those seeking casual or work apparel and footwear. Its market primarily spans the 16 states where its physical stores are located, further extending nationwide through its robust online presence, catering to a broad demographic seeking value and selection for their active and leisure pursuits.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO):
- A regional Dick's Sporting Goods.
- Dick's Sporting Goods meets Bass Pro Shops.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Camping & Outdoor Gear: Offers coolers, drinkware, camping equipment, backpacks, and sports bags for outdoor activities.
- Marine & Fishing Supplies: Provides fishing rods, reels, bait, marine equipment, and related accessories.
- Hunting & Shooting Sports Equipment: Features firearms, ammunition, archery equipment, hunting apparel, and shooting accessories.
- Team Sports Equipment: Sells gear for various team sports including baseball, football, basketball, soccer, golf, and volleyball.
- Fitness & Wellness Products: Includes fitness equipment, accessories, and nutrition supplies.
- Outdoor Recreation & Leisure Items: Offers patio furniture, outdoor cooking gear, trampolines, watersports equipment, and pet supplies.
- Apparel: Provides a diverse range of clothing, such as outdoor, seasonal, athletic, and licensed team apparel.
- Footwear: Carries various shoes and boots, including casual, work, athletic, and specialty sports footwear.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) primarily sells to individuals rather than other companies. Based on the products offered and its operations as a retailer with physical stores and an e-commerce website, its major customer categories include:
- Outdoor Enthusiasts and Recreationalists: This category includes individuals who participate in activities such as camping, fishing, hunting, boating, and general outdoor recreation. They purchase gear, apparel, and equipment for these specific pursuits.
- Athletes and Sports Participants: This category comprises individuals involved in team sports (e.g., baseball, football, basketball, soccer, golf), racket sports, or personal fitness activities. They buy sports equipment, athletic apparel, footwear, and fitness accessories.
- General Consumers and Families: This broad category includes individuals and families looking for casual apparel, footwear, seasonal items (like patio furniture), backyard recreational equipment (e.g., trampolines, playsets), outdoor cooking supplies, and other general lifestyle and home recreational products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Suppliers of Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO):
- Nike, Inc. (NKE)
- Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)
- Yeti Holdings, Inc. (YETI)
- Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)
- VF Corporation (VFC)
- Adidas AG (OTCQX: ADDYY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Steven (Steve) P. Lawrence Chief Executive Officer
Steven P. Lawrence has served as Chief Executive Officer and on the Board of Directors since June 2023. He joined Academy Sports and Outdoors in February 2019 as Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer. Prior to joining Academy, Mr. Lawrence was President, Chief Executive Officer, and served on the board of directors at francesca's from October 2016 to January 2019. From May 2012 to September 2016, he served as Chief Merchandising Officer at Stage Stores. Mr. Lawrence also spent nearly 12 years working in various merchandising leadership roles at J.C. Penney after 10 years at Foley's/May Co. He obtained his Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance from the University of Notre Dame.
Earl Carlton (Carl) Ford IV Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Earl Carlton (Carl) Ford IV has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since July 2023. Mr. Ford joined Academy Sports and Outdoors in January 2019 and served as the Senior Vice President, Finance, leading the Financial Planning and Analysis function from January 2019 to July 2023, and the Loss Prevention and Inventory Control teams from February 2020 to July 2023. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Ford served as the Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis at Belk, Inc. He also held roles as Vice President of Internal Audit and other leadership positions in accounting and treasury during his 15 years at Belk, Inc. Before Belk, Inc., Mr. Ford worked for Deloitte & Touche in their Audit practice.
Samuel (Sam) J. Johnson President
Samuel J. Johnson has served as President since October 2023. He joined Academy Sports and Outdoors in April 2017 as Executive Vice President, Retail Operations. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Johnson spent seven years with hhgregg, Inc., where he most recently served as Chief Retail Officer, leading store operations, customer relations, commercial sales, real estate, and visual merchandising. Before hhgregg, Inc., he spent more than 20 years in various leadership roles with Sears Holdings Corporation, including Vice President of Small Stores. Mr. Johnson holds a Bachelor of Arts in History and Health from East Tennessee State University.
Chad Fox Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer
Chad Fox has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer at Academy Sports and Outdoors since January 2024. In this role, he oversees omnichannel, marketing, customer insights, and customer care. Prior to joining Academy, Mr. Fox served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer at Dollar General, Corp. from April 2019 to January 2024. Before Dollar General, he served as Vice President of Retail Marketing from October 2018 to March 2019 at Walmart and held other leadership roles during his more than 12 years at Walmart. His early career experiences include brand management at Tyson Foods and account supervision at TRG. Mr. Fox served in the United States Marine Corps Reserve for eight years and holds a Master of Business Administration degree and a Bachelor of Science from Texas Tech University.
Bill S. Ennis Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer
Bill S. Ennis has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer since January 2024. He joined Academy Sports and Outdoors in April 2008 as Vice President of Human Resources, later serving as Senior Vice President, Human Resources from October 2010 to March 2016, and Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer from March 2016 to December 2023. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Ennis spent over 19 years with Stage Stores, May Department Stores, and Federated Department Stores, holding various positions in human resources, stores, buying group, store operations, and finance. He graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Texas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to the business of Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO):
- Cyclical Demand and Consumer Spending Uncertainties: As a retailer of non-essential consumer discretionary products, Academy Sports and Outdoors is highly susceptible to macroeconomic trends, including inflation and shifts in consumer disposable income. The willingness and ability of consumers to purchase sporting and outdoor equipment can significantly decrease during periods of economic downturn or rising living costs, directly impacting sales and merchandise margins.
- Intense Market Competition: Academy Sports and Outdoors operates within a highly competitive retail landscape, facing pressure from both specialty sporting goods retailers and larger mass merchants. Maintaining market position and profitability necessitates continuous innovation in product offerings, effective pricing strategies, and strong customer engagement.
- Margin Compression and Operational Efficiency: The company faces challenges in maintaining profit margins due to rising operating costs, which can stem from strategic investments like new store expansion and technology upgrades, as well as the need for increased promotional activity in a competitive or soft demand environment. Difficulties in inventory management, potentially leading to excess inventory and markdowns, can further erode profit margins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The U.S. sporting goods market was valued at USD 204.82 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 447.05 billion by 2033. Another source indicates the sporting goods industry in the United States was worth an estimated USD 111 billion.
- The U.S. outdoor recreation products market is valued at USD 103.5 billion.
- The U.S. camping and hiking gear market size was estimated to be USD 8.61 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 11.45 billion by 2030. The camping equipment market in the United States was valued at USD 24.60 billion in 2023, with projections to reach USD 37.52 billion by 2030. Another report estimates the camping equipment market size at USD 88.91 billion in 2024, growing to USD 159.38 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. fishing goods market size was estimated at USD 8.78 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 10.95 billion by 2030. The fishing equipment market was estimated at USD 20.74 billion in 2024. Another report indicates the global fishing equipment market is valued at USD 13.4 billion in 2025, with North America leading with USD 6.3 billion revenue.
- The USA hunting equipment and accessories market is valued at USD 15 billion. The global hunting market size was valued at USD 18.09 million in 2025. The shooting sports equipment market in North America accounted for a revenue share of 36.4% of the global market in 2023. The global shooting sports equipment market size was estimated at USD 38.34 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. ball sports goods market size was estimated at USD 31.35 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 41.96 billion by 2030.
- The U.S. fitness equipment market was valued at USD 4.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 6.8 billion by 2032. The U.S. home fitness equipment market size was valued at USD 4.81 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to USD 8.50 billion by 2030. The United States fitness equipment market was valued at USD 19.83 billion in 2024. The U.S. connected fitness equipment market size was estimated at USD 1.17 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. athletic footwear market generated a revenue of USD 31,208.2 million in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 41,865.1 million by 2030. Other sources indicate the U.S. athletic footwear market was approximately USD 15 billion in 2023, and USD 33.3 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. sports apparel market generated a revenue of USD 3,569.0 million in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 5,425.0 million by 2030. The USA sports apparel market is valued at USD 4.2 billion. The North America athletic wear market size was valued at USD 26.28 billion in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for a 90.14% revenue share. The North America sports apparel market size was valued at USD 87.03 billion in 2025. North American retail sales of sports-related apparel and footwear are projected to reach USD 173 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
-
Aggressive New Store Expansion: Academy Sports and Outdoors considers new store expansion its primary long-term growth engine. The company plans to open 20-25 new stores annually, with a broader goal of 160-180 new stores by 2027. This expansion includes entering new markets, as evidenced by its recent entry into states like Pennsylvania and Maryland. New stores have demonstrated strong performance, contributing positive comparable sales.
-
Robust Omnichannel and E-commerce Growth: A significant focus for Academy Sports and Outdoors is developing a more powerful omnichannel business. The company has shown strong progress in this area, with e-commerce sales increasing by double digits and its online channel contributing over 10% of total sales.
-
Enhanced Product Assortment and In-Store Productivity: Academy Sports and Outdoors aims to increase productivity from its existing businesses by expanding its product offerings and optimizing in-store operations. This includes strategic initiatives such as launching major brands like the Jordan Brand in a significant number of stores and expanding its partnership with Nike. Additionally, the company is focused on growing its private label offerings, aiming to reach 25% of revenue by 2027, which typically carries higher margins. Efforts to improve in-store performance through better inventory management, RFID rollouts, and loyalty programs are also key to driving growth.
-
Leveraging Major Sporting Events: The company is poised to benefit from significant sporting events in the coming years. Analysts expect Academy Sports and Outdoors to capture increased demand for soccer-related merchandise, particularly from the 2026 World Cup, which has historically led to a measurable boost in sales for sporting goods retailers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) announced a new share repurchase program of up to $700 million, effective December 4, 2024, for a period of three years. This program replaced a previous one that had $423 million remaining.
- In fiscal year 2024 (ended January 2025), ASO repurchased 6,544,337 shares totaling $364.9 million under its share repurchase program.
- During fiscal year 2022 (ended January 2023), the company repurchased 1.9 million shares for $100 million. The company also repurchased and retired 11,903,636 shares for $489.5 million in fiscal year 2022 and 10,566,796 shares for $411.4 million in fiscal year 2021.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares for Academy Sports and Outdoors has generally decreased over the past few years, indicating a net reduction primarily due to share repurchases. Shares outstanding were 91.14 million at the end of 2021, 79.08 million at the end of 2022, 74.46 million at the end of 2023, 70.31 million at the end of 2024, and 66.64 million at the end of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2025, Academy Sports and Outdoors projects capital expenditures between $220 million and $250 million. The primary focus for these expenditures is new store openings, technology upgrades, and updates to existing stores.
- In fiscal year 2024 (ended January 2025), capital expenditures amounted to $199.6 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,435 |
| Op Inc LTM | 375 |
| FCF LTM | 219 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 344 |
| CFO LTM | 370 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 477 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $47.06 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/02/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $49.56 | $52.44 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.0% | -10.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.0% | 42.9% |
| Downside Capture | 141.93 | 122.43 |
| Upside Capture | 31.06 | 78.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.3% | 33.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 | 0.66 | 0.86 | 0.77 | 1.14 | 1.30 |
| Up Beta | 1.10 | 2.02 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.49 |
| Down Beta | 0.37 | -0.36 | -0.35 | 0.62 | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Up Capture | -102% | 0% | 26% | 39% | 83% | 121% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 67 | 126 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 19% | 119% | 154% | 73% | 107% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 32 | 58 | 126 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | -15.0% | 42.8% | -0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -3.0% | 19.3% | -0.28 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.5% | 12.7% | 1.06 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 28.1% | 0.57 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.2% | 19.1% | 1.45 | -12.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.9% | 0.55 | 22.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.1% | 42.9% | -1.28 | 21.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | 5.9% | 46.1% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.7% | 24.0% | 0.16 | 53.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 50.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.6% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 39.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 18.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ASO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | 14.2% | 46.7% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.5% | 22.1% | 0.48 | 50.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 46.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 17.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/9/2026 | -2.5% | -4.7% | -11.7% |
| 3/17/2026 | -11.7% | -6.5% | 4.9% |
| 12/9/2025 | 8.6% | 12.1% | 16.8% |
| 9/2/2025 | -7.6% | -5.8% | -6.0% |
| 6/10/2025 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 14.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -0.3% | 3.2% | -20.2% |
| 12/10/2024 | 4.3% | 9.1% | 14.7% |
| 9/10/2024 | 5.2% | 13.0% | 4.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -5.8% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.4% | 28.3% | 30.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.7% | -6.5% | -20.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/9/2026 | -2.5% | -4.7% | -11.7% |
| 3/17/2026 | -11.7% | -6.5% | 4.9% |
| 12/9/2025 | 8.6% | 12.1% | 16.8% |
| 9/2/2025 | -7.6% | -5.8% | -6.0% |
| 6/10/2025 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 14.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -0.3% | 3.2% | -20.2% |
| 12/10/2024 | 4.3% | 9.1% | 14.7% |
| 9/10/2024 | 5.2% | 13.0% | 4.7% |
| 6/11/2024 | -3.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 3/21/2024 | -9.6% | -4.5% | -19.6% |
| 11/30/2023 | 0.7% | 8.3% | 30.8% |
| 8/31/2023 | 9.3% | 3.2% | -5.2% |
| 6/6/2023 | 1.8% | 4.5% | 10.5% |
| 3/16/2023 | 8.4% | 6.4% | 12.1% |
| 12/7/2022 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 6.8% |
| 9/7/2022 | 14.0% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
| 6/7/2022 | 8.8% | -5.8% | 6.2% |
| 3/29/2022 | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| 9/9/2021 | 1.5% | 5.8% | -3.4% |
| 6/8/2021 | 4.9% | 10.3% | 6.8% |
| 3/30/2021 | 10.8% | 28.3% | 27.6% |
| 12/10/2020 | 3.8% | 11.9% | 29.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -5.8% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.4% | 28.3% | 30.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.7% | -6.5% | -20.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/11/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/11/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/29/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 04/07/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 10/02/2020 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 6/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales | 6.23 Bil | 6.29 Bil | 6.36 Bil | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 6.26 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Sales Growth | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Comparable sales | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.01 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross margin rate | 34.5% | 34.75% | 35.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 34.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP net income | 390.00 Mil | 402.50 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 397.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted net income | 420.00 Mil | 432.50 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 427.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP earnings per common share, diluted | 5.95 | 6.15 | 6.35 | 4.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per common share, diluted | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 6.35 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 240.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 220.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales | 6.17 Bil | 6.26 Bil | 6.36 Bil | 2.5% | Higher New | Actual: 6.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Sales growth | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | ||||
| 2026 Comparable sales | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: -0.01 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross margin rate | 34.5% | 34.75% | 35.0% | 0.4% | Higher New | Actual: 34.4% for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP net income | 380.00 Mil | 397.50 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 3.9% | Higher New | Actual: 382.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted net income | 410.00 Mil | 427.50 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 6.2% | Higher New | Actual: 402.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP earnings per common share, diluted | 5.65 | 5.9 | 6.15 | 5.4% | Higher New | Actual: 5.6 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per common share, diluted | 6.1 | 6.35 | 6.6 | 7.6% | Higher New | Actual: 5.9 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 240.00 Mil | 12.8% | Higher New | Actual: 195.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 275.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 New store openings | 20 | 22.5 | 25 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.5 for 2026 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/9/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net sales | 6.03 Bil | 6.11 Bil | 6.20 Bil | -0.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.13 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Comparable sales | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -0.01 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross margin rate | 34.3% | 34.4% | 34.5% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 34.25% for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP net income | 365.00 Mil | 382.50 Mil | 400.00 Mil | -0.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 385.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted net income | 385.00 Mil | 402.50 Mil | 420.00 Mil | -0.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 405.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP earnings per common share, diluted | 5.35 | 5.6 | 5.85 | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.65 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted earnings per common share, diluted | 5.65 | 5.9 | 6.15 | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.95 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 180.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted free cash flow | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | -3.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 285.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 New store openings | 20 | 22.5 | 25 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tweedy, Jeffrey C | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 48.00 | 1,200 | 57,600 | 507,216 | Form | |
| 2 | Tweedy, Jeffrey C | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 60.00 | 4,000 | 240,000 | 470,100 | Form | |
| 3 | Marley, Brian T | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 55.01 | 3,500 | 192,535 | 2,151,276 | Form | |
| 4 | Marley, Brian T | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 55.31 | 17,071 | 944,153 | 2,356,484 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tweedy, Jeffrey C | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 48.00 | 1,200 | 57,600 | 507,216 | Form | |
| 2 | Tweedy, Jeffrey C | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 60.00 | 4,000 | 240,000 | 470,100 | Form | |
| 3 | Marley, Brian T | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 55.01 | 3,500 | 192,535 | 2,151,276 | Form | |
| 4 | Marley, Brian T | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 55.31 | 17,071 | 944,153 | 2,356,484 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.