Stride (LRN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $61.0 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Stride (LRN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $61.0Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.8% | Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.8% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LRN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -62.6% stock movement for Stride (LRN) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Muted Q1 Fiscal 2026 Outlook and Post-Earnings Plunge: Stride's stock experienced a significant drop, plunging over 54% in a single day following its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report on October 28, 2025. Despite beating analyst estimates for EPS and revenue, investors reacted negatively to the company's revenue guidance, which saw the higher end of its ranges fall below analyst expectations for both the upcoming quarter and the full fiscal year 2026, signaling a more subdued outlook compared to previous years.
2. Operational Issues and Failed Technology Platform Upgrade: Disclosures accompanying the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report revealed severe operational challenges stemming from a failed upgrade to Stride's technology platforms, affecting both its front-end learning and back-office systems. These issues, which began impacting operations in August 2025, led to poor customer experiences, login problems, increased withdrawal rates, and lower conversion rates, ultimately resulting in an estimated loss of 10,000 to 15,000 enrollments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LRN Return | 4% | 57% | -6% | 90% | 75% | -41% | 200% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 0% | -24% | -12% | -6% | -10% | -29% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LRN Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 0% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LRN Max Drawdown | -22% | -2% | -19% | 0% | -7% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | 0% | -24% | -18% | -16% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED. See LRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1079 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 564 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED
In The Past
Stride's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/21/2022. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Could Stride Stock's Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | Actionable | ||
| LRN: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating? | Actionable | ||
| Could LRN's Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | Actionable | ||
| LRN: Strong Cash Flow at a Discounted Valuation? | Actionable | ||
| Time To Buy Stride Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Stride Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Strong and Rising: LRN May Have More Upside | Actionable | ||
| Strong and Rising: LRN's May Have More Upside | |||
| Strong and Rising: LRN's May Have More Upside | |||
| High Cash Flow Yield And Solid Fundamentals, You Might Want To Look At LRN | Actionable | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Cash Rich, Low Price – Stride Stock to Break Out? | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| Cash Rich, Low Price – Stride Stock to Break Out? | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| Stride: What the Numbers Say About the Road Ahead | October 31st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stride
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,212 |
| Op Inc LTM | 333 |
| FCF LTM | 312 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 223 |
| CFO LTM | 379 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 287 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 20.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -32.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -43.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -39.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -58.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1292025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1242024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1252023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4202022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1262022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |