Tearsheet

Stride (LRN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $61.0 | Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Stride (LRN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $61.0
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.8%
Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.8%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
5 Short seller report
Fuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LRN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -62.6% stock movement for Stride (LRN) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Muted Q1 Fiscal 2026 Outlook and Post-Earnings Plunge: Stride's stock experienced a significant drop, plunging over 54% in a single day following its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report on October 28, 2025. Despite beating analyst estimates for EPS and revenue, investors reacted negatively to the company's revenue guidance, which saw the higher end of its ranges fall below analyst expectations for both the upcoming quarter and the full fiscal year 2026, signaling a more subdued outlook compared to previous years.

2. Operational Issues and Failed Technology Platform Upgrade: Disclosures accompanying the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report revealed severe operational challenges stemming from a failed upgrade to Stride's technology platforms, affecting both its front-end learning and back-office systems. These issues, which began impacting operations in August 2025, led to poor customer experiences, login problems, increased withdrawal rates, and lower conversion rates, ultimately resulting in an estimated loss of 10,000 to 15,000 enrollments.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LRN Return4%57%-6%90%75%-41%200%
Peers Return24%0%-24%-12%-6%-10%-29%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LRN Win Rate42%42%58%58%83%50% 
Peers Win Rate15%0%4%10%10%10% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LRN Max Drawdown-22%-2%-19%0%-7%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-9%0%-24%-18%-16%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED. See LRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLRNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven299 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven145.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1079 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven136.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven564 days1480 days

Compare to FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED


In The Past

Stride's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/21/2022. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Stride (LRN)

Better Bets than Stride (LRN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Stride

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
Mkt Price61.020.341.4517.05-34.2717.05
Mkt Cap2.6-----2.6
Rev LTM2,475--1,948--2,212
Op Inc LTM441--224--333
FCF LTM312-----312
FCF 3Y Avg223-----223
CFO LTM379-----379
CFO 3Y Avg287-----287

Growth & Margins

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
Rev Chg LTM17.3%--13.3%--15.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.1%-----13.1%
Rev Chg Q12.7%--27.8%--20.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.9%--6.4%--4.6%
Op Mgn LTM17.8%--11.5%--14.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.1%--6.2%--10.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%--4.4%--2.4%
CFO/Rev LTM15.3%-----15.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%-----13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM12.6%-----12.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%-----10.1%

Valuation

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
Mkt Cap2.6-----2.6
P/S2.6-----2.6
P/EBIT15.3-----15.3
P/E20.5-----20.5
P/CFO17.0-----17.0
Total Yield4.9%-----4.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%-----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%-----6.1%
D/E0.1-----0.1
Net D/E-0.0------0.0

Returns

LRNFCHLGVMHMKTRPXEDMedian
NameStride Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H.Monkey T.Phoenix . 
1M Rtn-14.1%-16.8%-3.3%56.4%--1.7%-3.3%
3M Rtn-62.4%-92.0%-2.0%15.0%---32.2%
6M Rtn-57.8%--29.1%----43.5%
12M Rtn-44.9%-2.1%----21.4%
3Y Rtn83.7%--86.1%----1.2%
1M Excs Rtn-15.4%-18.0%-4.6%55.2%--2.9%-4.6%
3M Excs Rtn-67.8%-98.4%-11.0%7.9%---39.4%
6M Excs Rtn-73.3%--44.5%----58.9%
12M Excs Rtn-56.4%--18.0%----37.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-2.8%--158.8%----80.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Educational platform to deliver proprietary and third-party curriculum, software systems and2,040    
Adult 119915611
General Education 1,1311,2741,280934
Middle - High School 58732120196
Total2,0401,8371,6871,5371,041


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,716,505
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.5%
Average Daily Volume2,427,615
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.35
Basic Shares Quantity43,371,952
Short % of Basic Shares13.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024129202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023124202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023816202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022125202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022420202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021126202210-Q 12/31/2021