Stride (LRN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $66.14 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Stride (LRN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $66.14Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Key risksLRN key risks include [1] securities lawsuits and an SEC investigation alleging the company inflated enrollment and made illegal staffing cuts, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, K-12 Virtual Education, and Workforce Development & Skilling. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Short seller reportFuzzy Panda Research report on 10/16/2024. |
| Key risksLRN key risks include [1] securities lawsuits and an SEC investigation alleging the company inflated enrollment and made illegal staffing cuts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LRN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Stride (LRN) stock moved by approximately -59.5% from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025:
1. Class Action Lawsuit and Fraud Allegations: In September 2025, reports emerged about a complaint filed against Stride alleging fraud, deceptive trade practices, and systemic legal violations, including inflating enrollment numbers by retaining "ghost students" to secure state funding. This news led to a stock drop of over 11% on September 15, 2025. A class action lawsuit was subsequently filed against Stride and its executives for securities fraud.
2. Weakened Financial Outlook and Operational Challenges: Following its Q1 fiscal year 2026 earnings report on October 28, 2025, Stride presented a financial outlook that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company cited issues with technology platform upgrades that resulted in a "poor customer experience," leading to higher student withdrawal rates and lower conversion rates. This impacted enrollment numbers, with an estimated decrease of 10,000-15,000 fewer enrollments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LRN Return | 4% | 57% | -6% | 90% | 75% | -37% | 223% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LRN Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LRN Max Drawdown | -22% | -2% | -19% | 0% | -7% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED. See LRN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LRN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,079 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 564 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR, PXED
In The Past
Stride's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/21/2022. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Stride Earnings Notes | |||
| Could Stride Stock's Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | Actionable | ||
| LRN: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating? | Actionable | ||
| Could LRN's Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally? | Actionable | ||
| LRN: Strong Cash Flow at a Discounted Valuation? | Actionable | ||
| Time To Buy Stride Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| With Stride Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Strong and Rising: LRN May Have More Upside | Actionable | ||
| Strong and Rising: LRN's May Have More Upside | |||
| Strong and Rising: LRN's May Have More Upside | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Cash Rich, Low Price – Stride Stock to Break Out? | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| Cash Rich, Low Price – Stride Stock to Break Out? | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| Stride: What the Numbers Say About the Road Ahead | October 31st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stride
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,285 |
| Op Inc LTM | 373 |
| FCF LTM | 267 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 223 |
| CFO LTM | 391 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 287 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.7 |
| P/E | -4.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -51.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -40.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -41.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -47.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -53.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -54.4% | -53.7% | -58.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 15.7% | 22.7% | 26.5% |
| 4/29/2025 | -0.2% | 10.9% | 4.4% |
| 1/28/2025 | 6.0% | 13.2% | 11.2% |
| 10/22/2024 | 39.1% | 41.2% | 59.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 9.3% | 15.3% | 13.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | 8.6% | 14.7% | 19.6% |
| 1/23/2024 | -2.0% | -3.2% | -10.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.2% | 13.2% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -16.2% | -13.2% |
| Max Positive | 39.1% | 41.2% | 59.4% |
| Max Negative | -54.4% | -53.7% | -58.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1292025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1242024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1252023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4202022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1262022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |