Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE)
Market Price (8/6/2026): $23.25 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE)
Market Price (8/6/2026): $23.25Market Cap: $-Sector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Key risksJMKE key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the operational and financial stability of its vast franchisee network, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Key risksJMKE key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the operational and financial stability of its vast franchisee network, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE) stock has gained about 5% since it went public on 7/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Institutional Demand Overwhelmed Initial Supply.
During its initial public offering, institutional demand for Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) shares was approximately 15 times oversubscribed, leading to rationing where roughly 20% of institutional accounts received no initial allocation. This intense demand contributed to renewed buying interest in the secondary market once early allocations settled, helping drive the stock price recovery after its initial trading day dip below the IPO price.
2. Favorable Analyst Ratings and Price Targets.
Immediately following its IPO, Jersey Mike's received "Buy" ratings from Wall Street analysts, notably Melius Research, which initiated coverage with a $30 price target. This target implied a potential upside of over 30% from the $23 IPO price. Analysts highlighted the company's premium fast-casual positioning, high customer satisfaction metrics, and strong demand from Gen Z and millennial demographics as key drivers for long-term outperformance.
Show more
Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE) stock has gained about 5% since it went public on 7/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Institutional Demand Overwhelmed Initial Supply.
During its initial public offering, institutional demand for Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) shares was approximately 15 times oversubscribed, leading to rationing where roughly 20% of institutional accounts received no initial allocation. This intense demand contributed to renewed buying interest in the secondary market once early allocations settled, helping drive the stock price recovery after its initial trading day dip below the IPO price.
2. Favorable Analyst Ratings and Price Targets.
Immediately following its IPO, Jersey Mike's received "Buy" ratings from Wall Street analysts, notably Melius Research, which initiated coverage with a $30 price target. This target implied a potential upside of over 30% from the $23 IPO price. Analysts highlighted the company's premium fast-casual positioning, high customer satisfaction metrics, and strong demand from Gen Z and millennial demographics as key drivers for long-term outperformance.
3. Robust Franchise Expansion and Proven Business Model.
Jersey Mike's operates as a leading fast-casual restaurant franchisor with over 3,300 locations across the United States and Canada. The company boasts a significant growth pipeline, with more than 1,600 additional domestic stores planned, over 90% of which are committed by existing franchise owners. Furthermore, the company reported an impressive 20 consecutive years of positive same-store sales growth, alongside a revenue of $724 million and net income of $55 million for fiscal year 2025.
4. Strategic Debt Reduction with IPO Proceeds.
The company plans to utilize approximately $301 million in net proceeds from the IPO's newly issued shares to repay a portion of its substantial pre-IPO indebtedness, which exceeded $1.5 billion and resulted in a net debt leverage ratio above 5x EBITDA. This strategic deleveraging is projected to reduce the leverage ratio toward 4x EBITDA, thereby lowering annual interest expenses and enhancing net income conversion.
5. Strong Market Positioning and Competitive Advantages.
Jersey Mike's has differentiated itself in the competitive fast-casual segment through its "A Sub Above" positioning, emphasizing fresh-sliced meats and cheeses and a distinctive customer experience, earning it recognition as the "#1 Best Sandwich Chain in America in 2025." This strong brand identity, coupled with the company's asset-light franchise model, which generated approximately 47% adjusted EBITDA margins in fiscal year 2025, positions it favorably within the restaurant industry, especially as competitors face challenges.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JMKE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | -11.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.2% | 88.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JMKE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | -11.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 88.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JMKE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.8% | -11.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.8% | 88.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JMKE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | -11.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.7% | 88.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JMKE Return | - | - | - | - | - | 8% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -34% | 45% | 48% | -38% | -14% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JMKE Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 29% | 60% | 62% | 33% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JMKE Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -51% | -30% | -32% | -56% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, SHAK, WING, CAVA, PTLO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
JMKE has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
JMKE has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE)
Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE) is a rapidly growing franchisor in the fast-casual restaurant segment, specializing in authentic, hand-crafted submarine-style sandwiches. The company emphasizes high-quality ingredients, with every sub featuring hand-sliced meats and cheeses, served fresh or grilled to order. A signature element of their offering is the "Mike's Way" finish, which includes fresh onions, crisp lettuce, juicy tomatoes, and a unique blend of red wine vinegar and oil, creating a distinctive and craveable flavor profile for its customers.
Operating primarily through an asset-light franchise model, Jersey Mike’s has established a significant presence with 3,300 locations across all 50 U.S. states and two countries, almost entirely franchised. The company serves a deeply loyal and growing customer base while supporting its franchise owners with a robust operating platform encompassing marketing, digital capabilities, efficient supply chain management, and proprietary technology. This infrastructure is purpose-built to enhance store-level margins and drive exceptional returns for its franchise owners, with a substantial development pipeline largely driven by existing franchisees, positioning JMKE for continued expansion.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
1. A premium, faster-growing rival to Subway.
2. The Chipotle of submarine sandwiches, built on a robust franchise system.
3. Like a McDonald's for high-quality subs, known for rapid growth and exceptional franchisee returns.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Submarine Sandwiches: Hand-crafted, authentic submarine-style sandwiches made with high-quality, hand-sliced ingredients, served fresh or grilled to order.
- Franchising Services: The licensing and support of its restaurant concept, enabling entrepreneurs to operate Jersey Mike’s Subs locations using its established brand, operating platform, and supply chain.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For the public company Jersey Mike’s Subs (symbol: JMKE), its major customers are its franchise owners.
As a franchisor, Jersey Mike’s Subs Inc. (JMKE) primarily sells its franchising model, brand rights, operational support, and supply chain access to these independent business entities. These franchise owners are the operators of the individual Jersey Mike's restaurants across the 50 states and two countries.
While these franchisees are businesses (other companies), they are typically privately owned entities or small corporations rather than large public companies with stock symbols. Therefore, specific names of customer companies and their symbols cannot be provided.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) business include:
-
Dependence on Franchisees: Jersey Mike's operates primarily through a franchised model, with nearly all of its 3,300 stores and over 90% of its robust development pipeline managed by independent franchise owners. The company's success, brand reputation, and financial performance are heavily reliant on the operational execution, financial stability, and adherence to brand standards by its franchisees. Any failure by a significant number of franchisees to maintain product quality, customer service, or financial viability could negatively impact the brand's overall image, customer loyalty, and royalty revenues.
-
Maintaining Supply Chain Integrity and Product Quality at Scale: The company emphasizes its commitment to "high-quality, hand-sliced ingredients" and boasts "best-in-class supply chain efficiencies." As Jersey Mike's continues its rapid expansion, maintaining consistent product quality across a growing number of locations (over 3,300 stores with a pipeline of 1,600 additional stores) and managing its complex supply chain effectively become increasingly challenging. Disruptions in the supply chain, fluctuations in ingredient costs, or an inability to consistently deliver the advertised product quality could erode customer trust and brand loyalty.
-
Intense Competition: Operating in the fast-casual, submarine-style sandwich market, Jersey Mike's faces significant competition. While the company is recognized as one of the largest and fastest-growing limited-service restaurant brands, it competes with numerous other established national and regional sandwich chains, local eateries, and a broad array of fast-casual and quick-service restaurants. This competitive landscape could impact Jersey Mike's ability to attract and retain customers, maintain pricing power, and continue its growth trajectory.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market for Jersey Mike's Subs' main products and services is the fast-casual restaurant market in the U.S..
The United States fast-casual restaurant market size reached approximately USD 48.50 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.40% between 2026 and 2035, reaching an estimated value of USD 90.19 billion by 2035. Another report indicates the U.S. fast-casual restaurants market size is valued to increase by USD 97.2 billion, at a CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030. The "Burgers & Sandwiches" segment constituted the largest share by restaurant type within the global fast-casual dining market in 2025, accounting for 34.2%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE)
- New Unit Development and Store Openings: Jersey Mike's Subs anticipates significant revenue growth from the expansion of its physical footprint. The company has a robust development pipeline of over 1,600 new stores as of June 30, 2026. This expansion is largely fueled by existing franchise owners, who are undertaking over 90% of this pipeline, indicating strong confidence in the brand's model and a clear runway for asset-light growth.
- Enhanced Customer Acquisition and Frequency: The company's robust marketing engine, coupled with growing digital capabilities, is designed to accelerate customer acquisition and deepen customer frequency. These initiatives are expected to expand the customer base and encourage repeat visits, thereby increasing overall sales.
- International Market Expansion: With 3,300 stores across all 50 U.S. states and only two international countries, Jersey Mike's Subs has substantial untapped potential for growth in new international markets. Expanding into additional countries represents a significant opportunity to drive future revenue growth.
- Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG): Jersey Mike's focuses on protecting and enhancing store-level margins through supply chain efficiencies, proprietary technology, and instructional know-how. Efforts to deepen customer frequency and elevate the overall customer experience are aimed at increasing sales at existing locations, contributing to robust same-store sales growth. The high cash-on-cash returns for franchisees also indicate strong existing store performance that encourages continued investment and growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are primarily directed towards developing best-in-class supply chain efficiencies and proprietary technology.
- Investments are also made in instructional know-how to safeguard and enhance Store-level Margin.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,286 |
| Op Inc LTM | 92 |
| FCF LTM | 39 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 22 |
| CFO LTM | 192 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 160 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 24.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Up Beta | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Down Beta | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Up Capture | 95% | 40% | 25% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Down Capture | -0% | -0% | -0% | -0% | -0% | -0% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JMKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMKE | 7.0% | 87.7% | 5.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.2% | 19.4% | 0.33 | 88.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.1% | 12.9% | 1.34 | -11.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.4% | 28.3% | 0.79 | -53.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.5% | 19.8% | 1.19 | 20.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.7% | 0.74 | -18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.6% | 42.9% | -1.25 | -47.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JMKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMKE | 1.4% | 87.7% | 5.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 24.1% | 0.22 | 88.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.2% | 0.60 | -11.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.6% | 0.79 | -53.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 20.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | -18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.9% | 53.0% | 0.37 | -47.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JMKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMKE | 0.7% | 87.7% | 5.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 88.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | -11.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.2% | 0.60 | -53.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.31 | 20.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | -18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | -47.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 07/02/2026 | S-1 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 07/02/2026 | S-1 |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Submarine, Buyer Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 8042026 | 21.85 | 29,695,652 | 648,849,996 | 3,139,823 | Form | |
| 2 | Blackstone, Holdings II LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 8042026 | 21.85 | 29,695,652 | 648,849,996 | 3,139,823 | Form | |
| 3 | Mercado, Betsy | Chief People Officer | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 800 | 18,400 | 18,400 | Form |
| 4 | Mercado, Betsy | Chief People Officer | Significant Other | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 3,265 | 75,095 | 75,095 | Form |
| 5 | Whalen, James J | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 2,500 | 57,500 | 57,500 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Submarine, Buyer Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 8042026 | 21.85 | 29,695,652 | 648,849,996 | 3,139,823 | Form | |
| 2 | Blackstone, Holdings II LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 8042026 | 21.85 | 29,695,652 | 648,849,996 | 3,139,823 | Form | |
| 3 | Mercado, Betsy | Chief People Officer | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 800 | 18,400 | 18,400 | Form |
| 4 | Mercado, Betsy | Chief People Officer | Significant Other | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 3,265 | 75,095 | 75,095 | Form |
| 5 | Whalen, James J | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 2,500 | 57,500 | 57,500 | Form |
| 6 | Travis, Nigel | Son | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 650 | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form | |
| 7 | Travis, Nigel | Daughter | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 434 | 9,982 | 9,982 | Form | |
| 8 | Skehan, Andrew G | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 10,000 | 230,000 | 230,000 | Form |
| 9 | Peterson, Stacy | President and COO | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 15,000 | 345,000 | 345,000 | Form |
| 10 | Allen, Michele | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 10,000 | 230,000 | 230,989 | Form |
| 11 | Allen, Michele | Chief Financial Officer | Son | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 1,500 | 34,500 | 34,500 | Form |
| 12 | Allen, Michele | Chief Financial Officer | Daughter | Buy | 8042026 | 23.00 | 1,500 | 34,500 | 34,500 | Form |
| 13 | Abu, Dhabi Investment Authority | See Explanation | Sell | 8042026 | 21.85 | 4,411,064 | 96,381,748 | 789,096,843 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.