Starbucks (SBUX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $86.25 | Market Cap: $98.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Starbucks (SBUX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $86.25Market Cap: $98.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SBUX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Starbucks (SBUX) experienced a mixed period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with its stock price fluctuating. The company reported its Q4 fiscal year 2025 results in late October, which included some positive developments alongside challenges that impacted investor sentiment and overall profitability. While precise daily movements for a -0.5% change require granular data, several key factors contributed to the stock's performance during this approximate timeframe.
1. Mixed Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Report: Starbucks reported a mixed performance for its fiscal Q4 2025, with consolidated net revenues increasing by 5% year-over-year to $9.6 billion, beating analyst estimates. However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.55, which was 31% less than the previous year and missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.55 by $0.03. The decline in EPS was a significant factor in investor apprehension.
2. Operating Margin Contraction: The company's GAAP operating margin contracted significantly, primarily due to restructuring costs associated with store closures and simplification of its support organization, inflation, and investments in its "Back to Starbucks" strategy. Non-GAAP operating margin also dropped by 500 basis points year-over-year to 9.4%. This margin squeeze raised concerns about near-term upside despite revenue growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SBUX Return | 24% | 11% | -13% | -1% | -2% | -4% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 20% | -2% | 29% | 15% | -3% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SBUX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 53% | 43% | 60% | 55% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SBUX Max Drawdown | -36% | -10% | -40% | -8% | -24% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -23% | -4% | -8% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See SBUX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SBUX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 406.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 840 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH
In The Past
Starbucks's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SBUX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302022 | SBUX | Starbucks | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.2% | 57.7% | -6.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 04302022 | SBUX | Starbucks | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.2% | 57.7% | -6.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Starbucks
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1282025 | 10-Q 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11202024 | 10-K 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1302024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 10-K 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11182022 | 10-K 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2012022 | 10-Q 1/2/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11192021 | 10-K 10/3/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
