Tearsheet

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $86.25 | Market Cap: $98.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Starbucks (SBUX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $86.25
Market Cap: $98.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Vegan & Alternative Foods, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SBUX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Starbucks (SBUX) experienced a mixed period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with its stock price fluctuating. The company reported its Q4 fiscal year 2025 results in late October, which included some positive developments alongside challenges that impacted investor sentiment and overall profitability. While precise daily movements for a -0.5% change require granular data, several key factors contributed to the stock's performance during this approximate timeframe.

1. Mixed Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Report: Starbucks reported a mixed performance for its fiscal Q4 2025, with consolidated net revenues increasing by 5% year-over-year to $9.6 billion, beating analyst estimates. However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.55, which was 31% less than the previous year and missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.55 by $0.03. The decline in EPS was a significant factor in investor apprehension.

2. Operating Margin Contraction: The company's GAAP operating margin contracted significantly, primarily due to restructuring costs associated with store closures and simplification of its support organization, inflation, and investments in its "Back to Starbucks" strategy. Non-GAAP operating margin also dropped by 500 basis points year-over-year to 9.4%. This margin squeeze raised concerns about near-term upside despite revenue growth.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SBUX Return24%11%-13%-1%-2%-4%11%
Peers Return25%20%-2%29%15%-3%111%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SBUX Win Rate67%50%42%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate65%53%43%60%55%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SBUX Max Drawdown-36%-10%-40%-8%-24%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-6%-23%-4%-8%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See SBUX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSBUXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven131 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven406.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven840 days1480 days

Compare to MCD, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH


In The Past

Starbucks's stock fell -44.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -44.4% loss requires a 79.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Starbucks (SBUX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SBUX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
SBUX_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022SBUXStarbucksDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.2%57.7%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Starbucks

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Growth & Margins

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Valuation

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Returns

SBUXMCDCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameStarbucksMcDonald.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity44,794,976
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202517.4%
Average Daily Volume12,543,488
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.57
Basic Shares Quantity1,136,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025729202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024128202510-Q 12/29/2024
93020241120202410-K 9/29/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023130202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 10/1/2023
6302023801202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023502202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022202202310-Q 1/1/2023
93020221118202210-K 10/2/2022
6302022802202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022503202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021201202210-Q 1/2/2022
93020211119202110-K 10/3/2021