Shake Shack (SHAK)
Market Price (7/14/2026): $62.06 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Shake Shack (SHAK)
Market Price (7/14/2026): $62.06Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% Key risksSHAK key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy reliance on volatile beef prices and [2] difficulty driving consistent traffic growth due to its premium pricing model and market saturation in key urban areas. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Key risksSHAK key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy reliance on volatile beef prices and [2] difficulty driving consistent traffic growth due to its premium pricing model and market saturation in key urban areas. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 7/13/2026
Shake Shack (SHAK) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Results: Shake Shack reported a significant miss on both revenue and earnings per share for its fiscal first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026, with results announced on May 7, 2026. The company reported a net loss of $0.3 million, compared to a net income of $4.5 million in the prior year's fiscal Q1. Additionally, Shake Shack posted an operating loss of $2.6 million versus an operating income of $2.8 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Revenue came in at $366.7 million, falling short of analyst estimates by over $12 million, and reported earnings per share were $0.00, missing expectations of $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA also declined 9.3% year-over-year to $37.0 million.
2. Weakened Outlook and Subsequent Analyst Downgrades: Following the fiscal Q1 2026 results, the company's guidance, particularly a broadening of its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to reflect near-term volatility, contributed to a more cautious investor sentiment. This led to multiple analyst firms lowering their price targets for SHAK. For instance, Guggenheim reduced its price target to $100 from $120, DA Davidson cut its target to $85 from $125, and Mizuho adjusted its target to $100 from $120. By early June 2026, Baird lowered its price target to $60.00, and Raymond James downgraded its rating.
Show more
Shake Shack (SHAK) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Results: Shake Shack reported a significant miss on both revenue and earnings per share for its fiscal first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026, with results announced on May 7, 2026. The company reported a net loss of $0.3 million, compared to a net income of $4.5 million in the prior year's fiscal Q1. Additionally, Shake Shack posted an operating loss of $2.6 million versus an operating income of $2.8 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Revenue came in at $366.7 million, falling short of analyst estimates by over $12 million, and reported earnings per share were $0.00, missing expectations of $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA also declined 9.3% year-over-year to $37.0 million.
2. Weakened Outlook and Subsequent Analyst Downgrades: Following the fiscal Q1 2026 results, the company's guidance, particularly a broadening of its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to reflect near-term volatility, contributed to a more cautious investor sentiment. This led to multiple analyst firms lowering their price targets for SHAK. For instance, Guggenheim reduced its price target to $100 from $120, DA Davidson cut its target to $85 from $125, and Mizuho adjusted its target to $100 from $120. By early June 2026, Baird lowered its price target to $60.00, and Raymond James downgraded its rating.
Show more
Updated on 7/13/2026
Shake Shack (SHAK) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Results: Shake Shack reported a significant miss on both revenue and earnings per share for its fiscal first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026, with results announced on May 7, 2026. The company reported a net loss of $0.3 million, compared to a net income of $4.5 million in the prior year's fiscal Q1. Additionally, Shake Shack posted an operating loss of $2.6 million versus an operating income of $2.8 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Revenue came in at $366.7 million, falling short of analyst estimates by over $12 million, and reported earnings per share were $0.00, missing expectations of $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA also declined 9.3% year-over-year to $37.0 million.
2. Weakened Outlook and Subsequent Analyst Downgrades: Following the fiscal Q1 2026 results, the company's guidance, particularly a broadening of its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to reflect near-term volatility, contributed to a more cautious investor sentiment. This led to multiple analyst firms lowering their price targets for SHAK. For instance, Guggenheim reduced its price target to $100 from $120, DA Davidson cut its target to $85 from $125, and Mizuho adjusted its target to $100 from $120. By early June 2026, Baird lowered its price target to $60.00, and Raymond James downgraded its rating.
3. Broad Macroeconomic Headwinds and Increased Consumer Price Sensitivity: The restaurant industry, particularly the fast-casual segment in which Shake Shack operates, faced a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by increased consumer price sensitivity during fiscal Q2 2026. A survey from June 2026 indicated that 36% of consumers reported spending less at restaurants than in the previous quarter, with a growing trend towards value-driven behavior, including ordering fewer add-ons and choosing less expensive options. Fast-casual growth rates have also been moderating, as sustaining traffic growth becomes more difficult amidst rising menu prices.
4. Persistent Commodity Inflation and Elevated Operating Costs: Shake Shack's profitability was further pressured by elevated commodity prices, most notably beef inflation, as highlighted in the Q1 2026 earnings call and subsequent investor conferences. Coupled with higher pre-opening costs for new restaurant developments and increased general and administrative (G&A) investments, these factors contributed to the operating loss reported in fiscal Q1 2026 and continued to weigh on restaurant-level profit margins.
Show less
Shake Shack (SHAK) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Results: Shake Shack reported a significant miss on both revenue and earnings per share for its fiscal first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026, with results announced on May 7, 2026. The company reported a net loss of $0.3 million, compared to a net income of $4.5 million in the prior year's fiscal Q1. Additionally, Shake Shack posted an operating loss of $2.6 million versus an operating income of $2.8 million in fiscal Q1 2025. Revenue came in at $366.7 million, falling short of analyst estimates by over $12 million, and reported earnings per share were $0.00, missing expectations of $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA also declined 9.3% year-over-year to $37.0 million.
2. Weakened Outlook and Subsequent Analyst Downgrades: Following the fiscal Q1 2026 results, the company's guidance, particularly a broadening of its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to reflect near-term volatility, contributed to a more cautious investor sentiment. This led to multiple analyst firms lowering their price targets for SHAK. For instance, Guggenheim reduced its price target to $100 from $120, DA Davidson cut its target to $85 from $125, and Mizuho adjusted its target to $100 from $120. By early June 2026, Baird lowered its price target to $60.00, and Raymond James downgraded its rating.
3. Broad Macroeconomic Headwinds and Increased Consumer Price Sensitivity: The restaurant industry, particularly the fast-casual segment in which Shake Shack operates, faced a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by increased consumer price sensitivity during fiscal Q2 2026. A survey from June 2026 indicated that 36% of consumers reported spending less at restaurants than in the previous quarter, with a growing trend towards value-driven behavior, including ordering fewer add-ons and choosing less expensive options. Fast-casual growth rates have also been moderating, as sustaining traffic growth becomes more difficult amidst rising menu prices.
4. Persistent Commodity Inflation and Elevated Operating Costs: Shake Shack's profitability was further pressured by elevated commodity prices, most notably beef inflation, as highlighted in the Q1 2026 earnings call and subsequent investor conferences. Coupled with higher pre-opening costs for new restaurant developments and increased general and administrative (G&A) investments, these factors contributed to the operating loss reported in fiscal Q1 2026 and continued to weigh on restaurant-level profit margins.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.7% change in SHAK stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.47 | 62.18 | -29.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,445 | 1,491 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 2.8% | -12.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 77.9 | 60.8 | -21.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 40 | 40 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHAK | -29.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.5% | 23.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.4% change in SHAK stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.17 | 62.18 | -23.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,373 | 1,491 | 8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 2.8% | -10.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 76.7 | 60.8 | -20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 40 | 40 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHAK | -23.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 30.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.6% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -55.8% change in SHAK stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -86.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.60 | 62.18 | -55.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,283 | 1,491 | 16.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 2.8% | 185.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 454.5 | 60.8 | -86.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 40 | 40 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -55.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHAK | -55.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.3% | 32.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.4% | 35.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.0% change in SHAK stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.72 | 62.18 | -20.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 950 | 1,491 | 56.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 1.7 | -47.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 40 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHAK | -20.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.8% | 45.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHAK Return | -15% | -42% | 78% | 75% | -37% | -28% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -3% | 35% | -4% | -13% | 9% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHAK Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 25% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 43% | 60% | 45% | 48% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHAK Max Drawdown | -47% | -52% | -33% | -28% | -46% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -26% | -19% | -29% | -30% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, QSR, DRI, BLMN. See SHAK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHAK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 370 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Shake Shack's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | SHAK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 370 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 845 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 695 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Shake Shack's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Shake Shack (SHAK)
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Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is a prominent fast-casual restaurant company that owns, operates, and licenses its branded Shake Shack restaurants, known as "Shacks." The company primarily focuses on offering an elevated dining experience compared to traditional fast-food chains, featuring a curated menu and a modern, inviting atmosphere. Its business model includes both managing company-owned locations and expanding its global footprint through domestic and international licensing agreements.
The core offerings at Shake Shack restaurants revolve around popular American comfort food, including gourmet hamburgers, hot dogs, and chicken sandwiches, which are a cornerstone of its appeal. The menu is rounded out with signature crinkle-cut fries, a variety of shakes and frozen custard desserts, and a selection of beverages such as beer and wine. Shake Shack serves a broad customer base in both the United States and various international markets, catering to diners seeking a premium, yet casual, meal experience.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogies for Shake Shack (SHAK):
- A Chipotle for burgers
- The Starbucks of burgers
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Hamburgers: Classic beef patties served on buns with various toppings.
- Hot Dogs: Premium sausages typically served in buns with condiments.
- Chicken: A selection of chicken-based menu items, often including sandwiches.
- Crinkle Cut Fries: Distinctively shaped potato fries, known for their crispy texture.
- Shakes: Hand-spun, creamy milkshakes available in various flavors.
- Frozen Custard: A dense, rich frozen dessert similar to ice cream.
- Beer: Alcoholic malt beverages offered to complement meals.
- Wine: Alcoholic grape beverages available for purchase.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html
Shake Shack (SHAK) primarily sells food and beverage products directly to individual consumers through its restaurants.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Casual Diners & Food Enthusiasts: Individuals and families who prioritize high-quality ingredients, a modern dining experience, and a step above traditional fast-food options. This segment values Shake Shack's fresh offerings and premium positioning within the fast-casual sector.
- Urban & Suburban Professionals/Residents: Customers working or residing in the metropolitan areas, bustling commercial districts, and affluent suburbs where Shake Shack locations are typically found. These individuals seek convenient, reliable, and quality meal solutions for lunch, dinner, or snacks during their daily routines.
- Tourists & Visitors: People traveling to cities and popular destinations where Shake Shack operates. Many are drawn to the brand's reputation, especially given its iconic New York City origins, seeking a popular local experience or a trusted, quality meal while exploring.
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- Martin's Famous Pastry Shoppe, Inc. (Private Company)
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Rob Lynch, Chief Executive Officer
Rob Lynch has served as Shake Shack's Chief Executive Officer since May 2024. Prior to joining Shake Shack, Mr. Lynch was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Papa John's International, Inc., where he oversaw significant global sales growth. Before his time at Papa John's, he held the position of President at Arby's, leading operations, marketing, culinary, development, and digital transformation initiatives.
Katherine Fogertey, Chief Financial Officer
Katherine Fogertey was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Shake Shack, effective June 14, 2021. Before her role at Shake Shack, Ms. Fogertey spent over 15 years at Goldman Sachs in New York City. At Goldman Sachs, she served as a lead analyst covering the restaurant sector, with a focus on technology's impact on profitability and market share. She also held a position as a lead analyst for Derivatives and ETF research, overseeing single-stock options and global ETFs.
Stephanie Sentell, Chief Operations Officer
Stephanie Sentell serves as the Chief Operations Officer of Shake Shack. Details about her specific background and prior roles beyond Shake Shack are not explicitly detailed in the provided search results.
Michael Kark, President of Global Licensing
Michael Kark was promoted to President of Global Licensing, effective February 22, 2024. He joined Shake Shack in 2012 and has been a pivotal figure in the company's international expansion, growing its licensed shacks from four to over 225. Before Shake Shack, Mr. Kark gained extensive experience in the fast-food industry, working for Chipotle Mexican Grill for approximately seven years in roles such as Team Leader (Area Director) and General Manager.
Andrew McCaughan, Chief Development Officer
Andrew McCaughan holds the title of Chief Development Officer at Shake Shack. He joined the company in 2010. In his role, he is responsible for the overall growth of Shake Shack, leading the real estate strategy, design, construction, and facilities functions.
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The key risks to Shake Shack's business include:
- Rising Commodity Costs: Shake Shack's profitability is significantly exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly beef, which constitutes a substantial portion of its food costs. Persistent beef inflation directly pressures the cost of food and paper, impacting restaurant-level profit margins.
- Labor Costs and Retention Challenges: The company faces ongoing challenges with rising labor costs and the difficulty of recruiting and retaining skilled team members in a competitive restaurant industry. These pressures can impact operational efficiency and overall margins.
- Intense Competition and Economic Sensitivity: Shake Shack operates in a highly competitive fast-casual dining market. Its premium positioning makes it vulnerable to shifts in consumer spending during economic downturns and intense competition from both established chains and emerging concepts, which can hinder traffic growth, especially in established markets.
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Addressable Markets for Shake Shack's Main Products and Services
Shake Shack operates within the broader Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) and Fast Casual restaurant markets, offering a menu that includes hamburgers, chicken, shakes, and frozen custard. The addressable markets for these key product categories are substantial, both in the United States and globally.
Overall Restaurant Market
- Global Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) Market: The global quick service restaurant market was valued at approximately USD 1.06 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 2.55 trillion by 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% during this period. Another estimate indicates the global QSR market was valued at USD 1.04 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to USD 2.5 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.16%.
- U.S. Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) Market: The U.S. QSR market was valued at USD 1,064.44 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2,462.71 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 8.75%. North America held a dominant share of the global QSR market, accounting for approximately 34.65% in 2025.
- Global Fast Casual Restaurant Market: This market was valued at USD 190.51 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 451.04 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 11.56%. Other estimates place the global fast casual market at USD 144.8 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 230 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4%.
- U.S. Fast Casual Restaurant Market: North America's fast casual restaurant market accounted for 33.32% of the global market share and was valued at USD 63.48 billion in 2023. The U.S. fast casual segment is forecast to reach $84.1 billion in total annual sales in 2025.
Main Products and Services
-
Hamburgers:
- Global: The global burger restaurant market was approximately $647.4 billion in 2024. The global Hamburger Market is estimated to be valued at USD 759.45 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,168.48 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 7.9%.
- U.S.: The Burger Restaurants market in the U.S. was valued at $173.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% over the five years to 2025. In 2026, the market size is estimated at $177.7 billion. The hamburgers segment held the largest market share of 38.96% in the U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market in 2024.
-
Chicken:
- Global: The global fried chicken market was worth around USD 44.56 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 78.92 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.33%. Another report indicates the fried chicken market size will grow from $100.11 billion in 2025 to $107.19 billion in 2026, at a CAGR of 7.1%, and is projected to reach $139.66 billion in 2030.
- U.S. (Fast-Food Chicken Industry): The fast-food chicken industry in the U.S. has grown at an annual rate of 7.2%, reaching $61.1 billion in revenue.
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Frozen Custard (part of Frozen Desserts):
- Global: The global frozen dessert market was valued at USD 138.43 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 199.56 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.15%. Other estimates show the global frozen dessert market at USD 136.87 billion in 2025, forecasted to expand to approximately USD 206.53 billion by 2035.
- U.S.: The U.S. frozen dessert market size was valued at USD 35.42 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 53.09 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 4.6%. The U.S. frozen desserts market was estimated to be worth approximately USD 33.14 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 49.50 billion by 2032.
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Shakes (Packaged Milkshakes market as an indicator of demand):
- Global: The global packaged milkshakes market size was valued at USD 369.04 million in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 689.96 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.2%.
- Hot Dogs and Crinkle Cut Fries: Specific market sizes for these products as standalone categories were not explicitly identified in the provided search results. They are generally encompassed within the broader Quick Service Restaurant and Fast Casual dining market segments.
- Beer and Wine (in Restaurants): Specific market size data for beer and wine sales within the fast-casual or quick-service restaurant industry was not available from the search results.
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Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Aggressive Unit Expansion: Shake Shack plans significant expansion of its restaurant footprint, both domestically and internationally. The company has increased its long-term total addressable market forecast to over 1,500 company-operated Shacks and expects to open 55-60 new company-operated Shacks and 40-45 new licensed Shacks in fiscal year 2026. This unit-led growth is a central component of its strategy.
- Same-Shack Sales Growth through Culinary Innovation and Strategic Marketing: The company aims to increase sales at existing locations by continually introducing new menu items and leveraging targeted marketing campaigns. Initiatives such as the "Big Shack" burger and value-focused in-app promotions (e.g., "$1, $3, $5" offers) have been successful in driving traffic and engagement. Shake Shack also plans increased media investments to support brand visibility.
- Enhanced Digital Engagement and Loyalty Program Launch: Shake Shack is focusing on growing its digital channels and improving customer engagement. The success of its in-app promotions has led to significant increases in app downloads, and the company plans to launch a loyalty program in the coming year. These digital initiatives are designed to boost customer frequency and strengthen brand connection.
- Strategic International Licensed Expansion: International growth, primarily through licensed locations, is another driver of revenue. Shake Shack is being selective with its international partners, developing new, smaller formats to offer greater real estate flexibility, and tailoring menu items to suit specific regional preferences. This approach supports global expansion with minimal capital investment.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Shake Shack reported $0 in share repurchases for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
- The company's repurchase of stock for the trailing twelve months ended December 2025 was also $0 million.
Share Issuance
- As of December 31, 2025, Shake Shack had 40,254,281 shares of Class A common stock issued and outstanding, an increase from 40,068,068 shares as of December 25, 2024.
- As of December 31, 2025, there were 2,434,789 shares of Class B common stock issued and outstanding, a slight decrease from 2,455,713 shares as of December 25, 2024.
- The company maintains the authority to issue "blank check" preferred stock, which could increase the number of outstanding shares.
Capital Expenditures
- Shake Shack's capital expenditures in Q4 2025 were a "meaningful cash outflow" of approximately $59.15 million, reflecting ongoing investment in store openings and equipment.
- In fiscal year 2025, the average investment per new Shack was about $2.3 million, or $1.9 million net of landlord allowances, with the average net build cost for new Shacks reduced to under $2 million, representing a 20% reduction.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is an aggressive expansion strategy, with 45 new company-operated Shacks opened in 2025 and a plan to build another 55-60 Shacks in 2026. The company is also investing in digital channels, kiosks, personalized offers, and loyalty programs to enhance guest engagement.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.4 |
| Rev LTM | 10,864 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,723 |
| FCF LTM | 1,250 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,171 |
| CFO LTM | 1,779 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,612 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.4 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.1 |
| P/E | 30.1 |
| P/CFO | 13.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $62.18 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/30/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -55.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $64.14 | $84.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.1% | -26.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 76.6% | 54.7% |
| Downside Capture | 182.69 | 176.27 |
| Upside Capture | -75.91 | 40.87 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.7% | 32.9% |
SHAK Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.56 | 0.56 | 1.32 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.49 |
| Up Beta | 2.63 | 2.59 | 2.75 | 2.33 | 2.36 | 1.80 |
| Down Beta | 0.78 | -0.31 | 0.15 | 1.64 | 1.42 | 1.52 |
| Up Capture | -89% | -141% | -13% | 54% | 33% | 121% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 17 | 30 | 62 | 114 | 362 |
| Down Capture | 61% | 234% | 223% | 152% | 151% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 33 | 63 | 137 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHAK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHAK | -56.4% | 54.5% | -1.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.5% | 18.7% | 0.15 | 34.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.8% | 12.6% | 1.23 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.0% | 27.9% | 0.64 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.6% | 18.9% | 1.16 | -13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.9% | 0.66 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.8% | 42.7% | -1.28 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHAK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHAK | -9.7% | 51.6% | -0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.9% | 23.9% | 0.21 | 53.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.29 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 40.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.6% | 53.5% | 0.44 | 25.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHAK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHAK | 5.6% | 50.4% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 51.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.7% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 18.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -28.3% | -33.8% | -45.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 7.0% | 5.7% | -7.7% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.7% | 6.6% | -4.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | -14.6% | -19.8% | -24.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.1% | 16.2% | 47.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 11.1% | -1.0% | -18.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.8% | 11.6% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 16.9% | 10.9% | 15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 9.5% | 9.2% | 18.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -7.2% | -8.2% |
| Max Positive | 26.0% | 25.7% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -28.3% | -33.8% | -45.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -28.3% | -33.8% | -45.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 7.0% | 5.7% | -7.7% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.7% | 6.6% | -4.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | -14.6% | -19.8% | -24.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.1% | 16.2% | 47.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 11.1% | -1.0% | -18.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.8% | 11.6% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 16.9% | 10.9% | 15.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.6% | -0.6% | -8.2% |
| 2/15/2024 | 26.0% | 24.3% | 32.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | -1.4% | -1.8% | 7.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | 16.6% | 25.7% | 29.9% |
| 2/16/2023 | -3.4% | -3.6% | -6.4% |
| 11/3/2022 | -8.2% | -11.4% | 0.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | -6.2% | -6.4% | -13.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | -2.4% | -21.7% | -16.8% |
| 2/17/2022 | -4.1% | -4.3% | -12.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 16.5% | 7.4% | -4.3% |
| 8/5/2021 | -2.5% | -1.4% | -7.9% |
| 5/6/2021 | -15.3% | -24.7% | -10.0% |
| 2/25/2021 | -0.4% | -8.0% | -3.3% |
| 10/29/2020 | -2.1% | 3.2% | 18.4% |
| 7/30/2020 | -12.1% | -9.1% | 22.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 9.5% | 9.2% | 18.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -7.2% | -8.2% |
| Max Positive | 26.0% | 25.7% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -28.3% | -33.8% | -45.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/7/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silverman, Josh | Silverman-Ghotbi Revocable Trust | Buy | 5182026 | 60.38 | 8,290 | 500,525 | 500,525 | Form | |
| 2 | Flug, Jeffrey | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 61.30 | 1,000 | 61,296 | 335,286 | Form | |
| 3 | Chapman, Charles J Iii | CJC NP Solo Rollover 401K | Buy | 5182026 | 61.32 | 1,000 | 61,320 | 61,320 | Form | |
| 4 | Chapman, Charles J Iii | CJC NP Solo Roth 401K | Buy | 5182026 | 61.43 | 780 | 47,915 | 47,915 | Form | |
| 5 | Chapman, Charles J Iii | CJC Roth IRA | Buy | 5182026 | 61.32 | 220 | 13,490 | 13,490 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silverman, Josh | Silverman-Ghotbi Revocable Trust | Buy | 5182026 | 60.38 | 8,290 | 500,525 | 500,525 | Form | |
| 2 | Flug, Jeffrey | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 61.30 | 1,000 | 61,296 | 335,286 | Form | |
| 3 | Chapman, Charles J Iii | CJC NP Solo Rollover 401K | Buy | 5182026 | 61.32 | 1,000 | 61,320 | 61,320 | Form | |
| 4 | Chapman, Charles J Iii | CJC NP Solo Roth 401K | Buy | 5182026 | 61.43 | 780 | 47,915 | 47,915 | Form | |
| 5 | Chapman, Charles J Iii | CJC Roth IRA | Buy | 5182026 | 61.32 | 220 | 13,490 | 13,490 | Form | |
| 6 | Balbale, Sumaiya | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 61.42 | 4,068 | 249,866 | 823,489 | Form | |
| 7 | Lynch, Robert | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 60.39 | 5,000 | 301,940 | 4,700,904 | Form |
| 8 | Meyer, Daniel Harris | BY TRUST | Buy | 5182026 | 61.88 | 32,258 | 1,996,215 | 23,433,160 | Form | |
| 9 | Sentell, Stephanie Ann | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 102.21 | 258 | 26,370 | 1,541,736 | Form |
| 10 | Sentell, Stephanie Ann | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 93.60 | 225 | 21,060 | 1,436,011 | Form |
| 11 | Sentell, Stephanie Ann | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 99.19 | 200 | 19,838 | 942,999 | Form |
| 12 | Sentell, Stephanie Ann | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 85.78 | 200 | 17,156 | 832,666 | Form |
| 13 | Sentell, Stephanie Ann | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 85.14 | 1,100 | 93,657 | 843,509 | Form |
| 14 | Fogertey, Katherine Irene | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 140.03 | 670 | 93,817 | 4,550,122 | Form |
| 15 | Fogertey, Katherine Irene | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 141.28 | 2,023 | 285,808 | 4,685,523 | Form |
| 16 | Meyer, Daniel Harris | Trust | Sell | 7032025 | 140.31 | 14,200 | 1,992,455 | 47,423,786 | Form | |
| 17 | Meyer, Daniel Harris | Trust | Sell | 7032025 | 139.03 | 15,800 | 2,196,673 | 48,964,113 | Form | |
| 18 | Meyer, Daniel Harris | BY TRUST | Sell | 6302025 | 140.07 | 20,000 | 2,801,344 | 51,542,489 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 14, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 West Capital Management LP | $110.0 Mil | 18.6% | 20 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $90.4 Mil | 5.5% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $15.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | New | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $24.6 Mil | 1.8% | 36 | ADD +268.1% | 13F |
| Linonia Partnership LP | $8.4 Mil | 0.2% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 West Capital Management LP | $110.0 Mil | 18.6% | 20 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $90.4 Mil | 5.5% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $24.6 Mil | 1.8% | 36 | ADD +268.1% | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $15.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | New | 13F |
| Linonia Partnership LP | $8.4 Mil | 0.2% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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