Shake Shack (SHAK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $83.44 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Shake Shack (SHAK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $83.44Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 88x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. | Key risksSHAK key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy reliance on volatile beef prices and [2] difficulty driving consistent traffic growth due to its premium pricing model and market saturation in key urban areas. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 57x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 88x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Key risksSHAK key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy reliance on volatile beef prices and [2] difficulty driving consistent traffic growth due to its premium pricing model and market saturation in key urban areas. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SHAK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining Shake Shack's (SHAK) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, during which the stock moved by approximately -22.4%:
1. Deteriorating Macroeconomic Environment and Consumer Spending Concerns
Concerns about the macroeconomic environment and its impact on consumer spending contributed to Shake Shack's stock decline. A weak November jobs report, which indicated a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to a three-year high of 4.6%, heightened worries that a weaker job market would lead consumers to reduce discretionary spending on items like dining out. This broader market skepticism affected the fast-casual sector, including Shake Shack.
2. Same-Store Sales Deceleration
Shake Shack experienced a deceleration in same-store sales in October, which was cited as a reason for the stock's decline from its peak levels in July. While third-quarter earnings (reported October 30, 2025) showed a pop in same-store sales, the underlying deceleration in October may have fueled investor concerns.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHAK Return | 42% | -15% | -42% | 78% | 75% | -37% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 19% | -3% | 35% | -4% | -11% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHAK Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 43% | 60% | 45% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHAK Max Drawdown | -45% | -18% | -47% | 0% | -12% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -7% | -23% | -3% | -21% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, QSR, DRI, BLMN. See SHAK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHAK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 120 days |
Compare to MCD, CMG, QSR, DRI, BLMN
In The Past
Shake Shack's stock fell -70.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -70.9% loss requires a 243.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SHAK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 10312019 | SHAK | Shake Shack | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -33.8% | -17.9% | -60.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 10312019 | SHAK | Shake Shack | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -33.8% | -17.9% | -60.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Shake Shack
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,447 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,733 |
| FCF LTM | 1,211 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,091 |
| CFO LTM | 1,678 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.6 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 25.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.7% | 6.6% | -4.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | -14.6% | -19.8% | -24.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.1% | 16.2% | 47.9% |
| 1/13/2025 | -5.3% | -10.1% | -17.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.8% | 11.6% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 16.9% | 10.9% | 15.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.6% | -0.6% | -8.2% |
| 2/15/2024 | 26.0% | 24.3% | 32.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 11.8% | 11.3% | 18.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -9.1% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 26.0% | 25.7% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -20.6% | -25.4% | -40.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/24/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/25/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/26/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/25/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/25/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/26/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/27/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/27/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/27/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/28/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/29/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/28/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/28/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/29/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/29/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Meyer Daniel Harris | 7032025 | Sell | 137.78 | 3,400 | 468,447 | 50,231,873 | Form | |
| 1 | Fogertey Katherine Irene | Chief Financial Officer | 6162025 | Sell | 126.80 | 1,106 | 140,238 | 4,894,391 | Form |
| 2 | Meyer Daniel Harris | 6092025 | Sell | 130.26 | 10,000 | 1,302,558 | 50,361,581 | Form | |
| 3 | Meyer Daniel Harris | 6032025 | Sell | 130.10 | 10,000 | 1,301,000 | 51,602,344 | Form | |
| 4 | Fogertey Katherine Irene | Chief Financial Officer | 5152025 | Sell | 115.05 | 180 | 20,708 | 4,567,977 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |