Tearsheet

McDonald's (MCD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $308.16 | Market Cap: $219.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

McDonald's (MCD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $308.16
Market Cap: $219.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MCD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why McDonald's (MCD) stock moved by approximately -0.7% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. McDonald's Q3 2025 Earnings Missed Analyst Forecasts for EPS and Revenue. For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, McDonald's reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.22, which fell short of the forecasted $3.35. Revenue also slightly missed expectations, coming in at $7.08 billion against an anticipated $7.10 billion.

2. Constant-Currency Earnings Declined Year-Over-Year in Q3 2025. Despite an increase in global comparable sales, McDonald's adjusted earnings per share on a constant-currency basis declined by 1% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025. This decline was primarily attributed to a significantly higher effective tax rate of 22.8%, which offset gains in adjusted operating income.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MCD Return11%28%1%15%0%6%75%
Peers Return28%17%-5%26%14%-5%93%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MCD Win Rate58%58%50%50%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate67%52%42%62%57%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MCD Max Drawdown-30%-4%-17%-5%-16%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-7%-27%-5%-10%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMCDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven172 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven20.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven242 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-21.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven517 days1480 days

Compare to SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH


In The Past

McDonald's's stock fell -17.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2022. A -17.7% loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About McDonald's (MCD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MCD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for McDonald's

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Growth & Margins

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Valuation

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Returns

MCDSBUXCMGYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameMcDonald.StarbucksChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
International Operated Markets12,38211,29712,2209,57111,480
United States (US)10,5689,5888,8657,8288,003
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate2,5432,2972,1381,8091,882
Total25,49323,18323,22319,20821,364


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
International Operated Markets5,8313,9265,1313,3154,789
United States (US)5,6945,1364,7553,7894,069
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate121309471220212
Total11,6469,37110,3567,3249,070


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
International Operated Markets23,94721,97924,18624,74422,848
United States (US)22,47721,79321,28021,01021,377
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate9,7236,6638,3886,8733,286
Total56,14750,43653,85452,62747,511


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,720,128
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.4%
Average Daily Volume3,572,161
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.16
Basic Shares Quantity712,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Erlinger Joseph M.President, McDonald's USA11182025Sell305.823,195977,0951,861,869Form