McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $308.16 | Market Cap: $219.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $308.16Market Cap: $219.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MCD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why McDonald's (MCD) stock moved by approximately -0.7% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. McDonald's Q3 2025 Earnings Missed Analyst Forecasts for EPS and Revenue.
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, McDonald's reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.22, which fell short of the forecasted $3.35. Revenue also slightly missed expectations, coming in at $7.08 billion against an anticipated $7.10 billion.
2. Constant-Currency Earnings Declined Year-Over-Year in Q3 2025.
Despite an increase in global comparable sales, McDonald's adjusted earnings per share on a constant-currency basis declined by 1% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025. This decline was primarily attributed to a significantly higher effective tax rate of 22.8%, which offset gains in adjusted operating income.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCD Return | 11% | 28% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 6% | 75% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 17% | -5% | 26% | 14% | -5% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCD Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 52% | 42% | 62% | 57% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCD Max Drawdown | -30% | -4% | -17% | -5% | -16% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -7% | -27% | -5% | -10% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 242 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 517 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SBUX, CMG, YUM, QSR, TXRH
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -17.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2022. A -17.7% loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MCD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for McDonald's
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 12,382 | 11,297 | 12,220 | 9,571 | 11,480 |
| United States (US) | 10,568 | 9,588 | 8,865 | 7,828 | 8,003 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 2,543 | 2,297 | 2,138 | 1,809 | 1,882 |
| Total | 25,493 | 23,183 | 23,223 | 19,208 | 21,364 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 5,831 | 3,926 | 5,131 | 3,315 | 4,789 |
| United States (US) | 5,694 | 5,136 | 4,755 | 3,789 | 4,069 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 121 | 309 | 471 | 220 | 212 |
| Total | 11,646 | 9,371 | 10,356 | 7,324 | 9,070 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 23,947 | 21,979 | 24,186 | 24,744 | 22,848 |
| United States (US) | 22,477 | 21,793 | 21,280 | 21,010 | 21,377 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 9,723 | 6,663 | 8,388 | 6,873 | 3,286 |
| Total | 56,147 | 50,436 | 53,854 | 52,627 | 47,511 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Erlinger Joseph M. | President, McDonald's USA | 11182025 | Sell | 305.82 | 3,195 | 977,095 | 1,861,869 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
