Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.98 | Market Cap: $45.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.98Market Cap: $45.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CMG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock experienced a significant drop following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report released around October 29-30, 2025. The report indicated in-line earnings but a modest miss on revenue, and the company's share price fell by over 21% in less than a week due to disappointing performance and forward guidance. 2. Continued Weakness in Same-Store Sales: The company consistently lowered its same-store sales growth targets throughout 2025, with Q3 2025 showing only a 0.3% year-over-year increase, largely driven by new store openings rather than existing restaurant performance. Customer traffic trends worsened, with same-restaurant sales declining in October 2025 and projected to fall in Q4 2025, resulting in an anticipated low-single-digit percentage decline for annual same-store sales.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMG Return | 66% | 26% | -21% | 65% | 32% | -43% | 104% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 17% | -1% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 53% | 43% | 58% | 52% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMG Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -31% | -2% | -3% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -7% | -25% | -6% | -13% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See CMG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 293.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 572 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH
In The Past
Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock fell -38.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -38.1% loss requires a 61.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Chipotle Mexican Grill
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Boatwright Scott | Chief Executive Officer | 6062025 | Sell | 52.48 | 19,000 | 997,133 | 17,386,384 | Form |
| 1 | McConnell Jamie | Chief Accountg & Admin Officer | 5152025 | Sell | 52.42 | 3,087 | 161,829 | 1,471,193 | Form |
| 2 | Gutierrez Mauricio | 3072025 | Buy | 53.00 | 9,400 | 498,200 | 1,664,200 | Form | |
| 3 | Garner Curtis E | Chief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr | 2112025 | Sell | 57.31 | 15,750 | 902,563 | 22,622,188 | Form |
| 4 | Garner Curtis E | Chief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr | 1102025 | Sell | 58.24 | 15,750 | 917,261 | 23,907,843 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
