Tearsheet

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.98 | Market Cap: $45.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.98
Market Cap: $45.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CMG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock experienced a significant drop following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report released around October 29-30, 2025. The report indicated in-line earnings but a modest miss on revenue, and the company's share price fell by over 21% in less than a week due to disappointing performance and forward guidance. 2. Continued Weakness in Same-Store Sales: The company consistently lowered its same-store sales growth targets throughout 2025, with Q3 2025 showing only a 0.3% year-over-year increase, largely driven by new store openings rather than existing restaurant performance. Customer traffic trends worsened, with same-restaurant sales declining in October 2025 and projected to fall in Q4 2025, resulting in an anticipated low-single-digit percentage decline for annual same-store sales.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CMG Return66%26%-21%65%32%-43%104%
Peers Return17%17%-1%16%8%4%78%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMG Win Rate67%50%42%67%67%20% 
Peers Win Rate65%53%43%58%52%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CMG Max Drawdown-44%-6%-31%-2%-3%-51% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-7%-25%-6%-13%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See CMG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven316 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven100.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven54 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-49.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven183 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven293.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven572 days1480 days

Compare to MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH


In The Past

Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock fell -38.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -38.1% loss requires a 61.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Chipotle Mexican Grill

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Price-------
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Growth & Margins

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Rev Chg LTM-------
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QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
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Valuation

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
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P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
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Returns

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment9,8728,6357,5475,9855,586
Total9,8728,6357,5475,9855,586


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity30,670,482
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.0%
Average Daily Volume30,617,595
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity1,335,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024205202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Boatwright ScottChief Executive Officer6062025Sell52.4819,000997,13317,386,384Form
1McConnell JamieChief Accountg & Admin Officer5152025Sell52.423,087161,8291,471,193Form
2Gutierrez Mauricio 3072025Buy53.009,400498,2001,664,200Form
3Garner Curtis EChief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr2112025Sell57.3115,750902,56322,622,188Form
4Garner Curtis EChief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr1102025Sell58.2415,750917,26123,907,843Form