Tearsheet

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $36.11 | Market Cap: $48.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $36.11
Market Cap: $48.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54%
 
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CMG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The decline in Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) stock by -14.2% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors: **1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Comparable Sales Growth.** Chipotle reported a marginal 0.3% increase in comparable restaurant sales for Q3 2025, which was largely flat year-on-year. This was driven by a 1.1% increase in average check but was partially offset by a 0.8% drop in transactions, indicating a slowdown in customer traffic.

**2. Persistent Macroeconomic Pressures and Consumer Headwinds.** Management cited ongoing macroeconomic challenges as a significant factor, observing a sharp decline in transaction trends. This downturn was particularly noted among low- and middle-income guests and those aged 25 to 35, who were affected by inflation, unemployment, and increased student loan repayments, leading them to reduce their dining frequency.

**3. Downward Revision of Full-Year Sales Guidance.** Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, Chipotle's management lowered their guidance for full-year comparable sales growth. They now expected a low-single-digit decline, a significant revision from their previous forecast of flat comparable restaurant sales.

**4. Operating Margin Contraction Due to Inflationary Pressures.** The company experienced a decrease in its operating margin from 16.9% to 15.9%, and its restaurant-level operating margin contracted from 25.5% to 24.5% in Q3 2025. This was largely due to accelerating inflationary pressures, particularly rising beef costs and new tariffs, which management deliberately chose not to fully offset with price increases in the short term to prioritize customer value.

**5. Significant Insider Selling Exceeding $5 Million.** Curtis E. Garner, the President of Chipotle, engaged in multiple stock sales over the six months preceding December 12, 2025, totaling an estimated $8,945,095 from the sale of 208,288 shares. This included a sale of 67,646 shares on December 12, 2025, valued at approximately $2,438,421.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CMG Return66%26%-21%65%32%-42%108%
Peers Return17%17%-1%16%8%5%78%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMG Win Rate67%50%42%67%67%33% 
Peers Win Rate65%53%43%58%52%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CMG Max Drawdown-44%-6%-31%-2%-3%-51% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-7%-25%-6%-13%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See CMG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven316 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven100.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven54 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-49.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven183 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven293.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven572 days1480 days

Compare to MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH


In The Past

Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock fell -38.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -38.1% loss requires a 61.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Better Bets than Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
14.5%14.5%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
14.5%14.5%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Chipotle Mexican Grill

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Price36.14316.7285.35151.0670.87168.24118.20
Mkt Cap48.2225.896.242.023.211.245.1
Rev LTM11,78726,26337,1848,0619,1065,83410,447
Op Inc LTM1,99612,1133,5812,4852,3485172,416
FCF LTM1,5737,3722,4421,5641,3543411,569
FCF 3Y Avg1,4047,0493,1451,4131,2402911,408
CFO LTM2,21510,4854,7481,9061,5887472,060
CFO 3Y Avg1,9939,7045,6171,7121,4056481,853

Growth & Margins

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Rev Chg LTM7.3%1.2%2.8%11.6%21.8%14.4%9.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.9%4.2%5.0%6.4%14.2%14.4%9.2%
Rev Chg Q7.5%3.0%5.5%8.4%15.9%12.8%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%0.8%1.3%1.9%3.8%2.9%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM16.9%46.1%9.6%30.8%25.8%8.9%21.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.0%45.9%13.0%31.7%28.8%8.6%22.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-0.0%-0.8%-0.0%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM18.8%39.9%12.8%23.6%17.4%12.8%18.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.6%37.7%15.4%23.0%18.1%12.6%18.3%
FCF/Rev LTM13.3%28.1%6.6%19.4%14.9%5.8%14.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%27.4%8.7%18.9%16.0%5.6%14.6%

Valuation

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
Mkt Cap48.2225.896.242.023.211.245.1
P/S4.48.22.65.22.31.93.5
P/EBIT26.217.7-16.99.821.317.7
P/E34.025.751.829.224.525.227.5
P/CFO23.620.720.322.213.214.820.5
Total Yield2.9%6.2%4.8%5.3%9.2%4.8%5.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%2.9%1.8%5.1%0.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.4%3.4%-3.6%5.8%3.0%3.4%
D/E0.10.3-0.30.80.10.3
Net D/E0.10.2-0.20.70.10.2

Returns

CMGMCDSBUXYUMQSRTXRHMedian
NameChipotle.McDonald.StarbucksYum Bran.Restaura.Texas Ro. 
1M Rtn15.4%3.8%-2.2%1.6%2.5%0.8%2.1%
3M Rtn-6.4%4.3%5.0%1.5%13.7%1.3%2.9%
6M Rtn-28.1%6.1%-7.2%5.9%7.4%-7.0%-0.5%
12M Rtn-45.4%9.3%-10.4%11.1%6.3%-10.0%-1.8%
3Y Rtn16.7%23.8%-10.1%22.9%16.5%80.5%19.8%
1M Excs Rtn15.7%4.1%-1.8%2.0%2.8%1.1%2.4%
3M Excs Rtn-9.5%2.3%0.8%-1.3%8.8%-0.9%-0.1%
6M Excs Rtn-42.3%-8.1%-21.4%-8.3%-6.8%-21.2%-14.8%
12M Excs Rtn-57.4%-5.4%-23.9%-1.7%-8.1%-24.7%-16.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-53.8%-48.0%-83.4%-48.8%-54.7%8.4%-51.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment9,8728,6357,5475,9855,586
Total9,8728,6357,5475,9855,586


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31,463,273
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.6%
Average Daily Volume21,566,166
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.46
Basic Shares Quantity1,335,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-18.2%-19.6%-13.9%
7/23/2025-13.3%-17.1%-18.7%
4/23/20251.6%3.6%4.1%
2/4/2025-2.6%-4.8%-12.8%
10/29/2024-7.9%-7.1%2.6%
7/24/2024-1.9%4.9%3.2%
4/24/20246.3%7.2%7.2%
2/6/20247.2%4.5%8.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101312
# Negative141112
Median Positive8.7%7.2%7.7%
Median Negative-4.9%-6.7%-10.7%
Max Positive14.7%17.7%30.9%
Max Negative-18.2%-19.6%-18.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024205202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Boatwright ScottChief Executive Officer6062025Sell52.4819,000997,13317,386,384Form
1McConnell JamieChief Accountg & Admin Officer5152025Sell52.423,087161,8291,471,193Form
2Gutierrez Mauricio 3072025Buy53.009,400498,2001,664,200Form
3Garner Curtis EChief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr2112025Sell57.3115,750902,56322,622,188Form
4Garner Curtis EChief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr1102025Sell58.2415,750917,26123,907,843Form