Hilton Worldwide (HLT)


Market Price (9/19/2026): $305.74 | Market Cap: $69.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Hilton Worldwide (HLT)


Market Price (9/19/2026): $305.74
Market Cap: $69.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.3 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x

Key risks
HLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more.

0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.3 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x
6 Key risks
HLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more.

HLT in ETFs

Weight = HLT's share of each fund

SPY0.11%
VOO0.11%
IVV0.11%
VTI0.10%
ITOT0.10%
IWB0.10%
RSP0.18%
VUG0.22%
+24 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/1/2026

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Hilton's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance fell below analyst expectations. Despite reporting adjusted EPS of $2.29 for fiscal Q2 2026, which beat analyst estimates of $2.27, the company's projected adjusted EPS for fiscal Q3 2026 was $2.28-$2.34, below the analyst consensus of $2.42.

2. There are indications of cooling RevPAR growth in the U.S. hotel sector and significant regional weakness. While weekly U.S. RevPAR gains averaged near 8.0% in June and early July 2026, this growth softened to 6.0%-7.0% in August. Furthermore, the Middle East and Africa region experienced an approximately 30% year-over-year decline in RevPAR during fiscal Q2 2026 due to regional conflict, with a full-year 2026 forecast projecting a high single to low double-digit decrease.

Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Hilton's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance fell below analyst expectations. Despite reporting adjusted EPS of $2.29 for fiscal Q2 2026, which beat analyst estimates of $2.27, the company's projected adjusted EPS for fiscal Q3 2026 was $2.28-$2.34, below the analyst consensus of $2.42.

2. There are indications of cooling RevPAR growth in the U.S. hotel sector and significant regional weakness. While weekly U.S. RevPAR gains averaged near 8.0% in June and early July 2026, this growth softened to 6.0%-7.0% in August. Furthermore, the Middle East and Africa region experienced an approximately 30% year-over-year decline in RevPAR during fiscal Q2 2026 due to regional conflict, with a full-year 2026 forecast projecting a high single to low double-digit decrease.

3. Rising hotel rates are a concern for corporate booking volumes, potentially impacting future demand. A survey of travel managers in June and July 2026 revealed that while 63% anticipate increased hotel spending for full-year 2026, only 53% expect an increase in booking volume, suggesting that higher rates are driving spending more than increased travel. The forecast for the U.S. hotel average daily rate (ADR) growth for full-year 2026 has tripled to 3.1% year-over-year, indicating potentially higher costs for consumers and businesses.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -6.7% change in HLT stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269182026Change
Stock Price ($)327.51305.73-6.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,28112,4851.7%
Net Income Margin (%)12.6%12.7%1.0%
P/E Multiple48.643.8-9.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2292270.9%
Cumulative Contribution-6.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT-6.7% 
Market (SPY)0.9%8.1%
Sector (XLY)-8.1%18.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.9% change in HLT stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820269182026Change
Stock Price ($)311.49305.73-1.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,03912,4853.7%
Net Income Margin (%)12.1%12.7%4.8%
P/E Multiple49.843.8-12.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2332272.6%
Cumulative Contribution-1.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT-1.9% 
Market (SPY)11.6%37.4%
Sector (XLY)-4.8%45.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 11.0% change in HLT stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)83120259182026Change
Stock Price ($)275.52305.7311.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,48212,4858.7%
Net Income Margin (%)13.8%12.7%-8.3%
P/E Multiple41.143.86.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2372274.4%
Cumulative Contribution11.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT11.0% 
Market (SPY)19.4%32.7%
Sector (XLY)-3.6%40.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 107.2% change in HLT stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239182026Change
Stock Price ($)147.56305.73107.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9,76512,48527.9%
Net Income Margin (%)13.2%12.7%-4.1%
P/E Multiple30.243.845.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)26422716.3%
Cumulative Contribution107.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT107.2% 
Market (SPY)75.6%58.2%
Sector (XLY)33.0%59.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
HLT Return40%-19%45%36%16%5%176%
Peers Return35%-13%28%19%-7%6%77%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HLT Win Rate50%50%67%75%67%56% 
Peers Win Rate58%40%57%58%52%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HLT Max Drawdown-14%-33%-14%-12%-26%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-32%-19%-18%-35%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventHLTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven85 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-11.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven108 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-28.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven387 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-50.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven101.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven279 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-16.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven35 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven312 days62 days

Compare to MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST

In The Past

Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventHLTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven85 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-28.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven387 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-50.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven101.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven279 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven312 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-31.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.5%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven300 days15 days

Compare to MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST

In The Past

Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a leading global hospitality company that operates by owning, leasing, managing, developing, and franchising a vast portfolio of hotels and resorts. The company primarily generates revenue through two segments: managing properties for other owners and licensing its established brands to independent operators (Management and Franchise), and directly owning or leasing properties itself (Ownership).

The core products and services Hilton offers are lodging experiences across a wide range of hotel brands, catering to diverse traveler preferences and budgets. These include luxury brands like Waldorf Astoria, full-service options such as Hilton Hotels & Resorts and DoubleTree, and focused-service or extended-stay brands like Hampton by Hilton and Homewood Suites. Essentially, Hilton sells hotel stays and brand recognition, ensuring consistent quality and amenities across its nearly 7,000 properties.

Hilton's primary customers are individual and business travelers seeking accommodation for leisure, business trips, or extended stays. Its extensive global footprint covers North America, South America, Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific, serving a broad international market across 122 countries and territories.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Marriott International for hotels.
  • McDonald's, but for hotel brands and properties.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Hotel Management Services: Hilton provides comprehensive management services for hotels and resorts owned by third parties, overseeing daily operations, marketing, and guest services.
  • Hotel Franchising Services: Hilton licenses its diverse portfolio of hotel brands to independent owners and operators, providing them with brand recognition, reservation systems, and operational support.
  • Lodging and Hospitality Services: Hilton directly operates and offers accommodation, dining, and various hospitality amenities to guests at its owned and leased hotels and resorts worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) primarily serves individuals and groups who utilize its hotel and resort properties.

The major categories of customers Hilton serves are:

  1. Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families who stay at Hilton properties for vacations, personal travel, recreation, or weekend getaways.
  2. Business Travelers: Individuals who stay at Hilton properties for work-related purposes, including corporate meetings, conferences, training sessions, or individual business trips.
  3. Group Travelers & Event Planners: Organizations, companies, or individuals booking blocks of rooms or event spaces for conferences, conventions, social gatherings, weddings, and other organized events.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer

Christopher J. Nassetta was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Hilton in December 2007. Before joining Hilton, he served as President and CEO of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. from 2000. He co-founded Bailey Capital Corporation in 1991, a private real estate investment and advisory firm where he oversaw operations. Prior to that, he spent seven years at The Oliver Carr Company, rising to Chief Development Officer. Nassetta played a key role in transforming Hilton after its 2007 acquisition by Blackstone, converting what was initially a challenging private equity investment into a highly profitable one. He is recognized in the finance and real estate business as a restructuring expert who can fix struggling companies.

Kevin Jacobs, Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development

Kevin Jacobs is the Chief Financial Officer for Hilton, leading the company's finance, real estate, and corporate strategy functions globally. He joined Hilton in 2008 as Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, was elected Treasurer in 2009, appointed Executive Vice President & Chief of Staff in 2012, and assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in 2013. From 2020 to 2025, Jacobs also held the position of President, Global Development. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc., an equity REIT.

Laura Fuentes, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer

Laura Fuentes joined Hilton in 2013 and was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer in 2020. In this role, she is responsible for human resources and leads Hilton Supply Management. Before her time at Hilton, Fuentes spent six years at Capital One Financial in various corporate strategy and human resources positions. Prior to Capital One, she worked at McKinsey & Company in their Madrid, New York, and Washington D.C. offices, advising clients in the financial services and non-profit sectors.

Danny Hughes, Executive Vice President and President, Americas

Danny Hughes is the Executive Vice President and President of the Americas for Hilton, where he is responsible for the company's operations across North, Central, and South America, encompassing over 6,600 hotels. With 35 years of experience in the hospitality industry, he previously served as SVP and Commercial Director in the Americas and SVP, Caribbean and Latin America at Hilton. His career in hospitality began as a chef in his parents' pub in the UK.

Chris Silcock, President, Global Brands and Commercial Services

Chris Silcock serves as President, Global Brands and Commercial Services for Hilton. He leads efforts to drive market-leading performance and innovation across Hilton's global portfolio. His responsibilities include global brand strategy and management, performance support, owner relations, technology, sales, revenue management, distribution, enterprise data and analytics, customer engagement, marketing, and loyalty.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Hilton Worldwide (HLT):

  1. Economic Sensitivity and Macroeconomic Factors

    Hilton Worldwide's business is highly susceptible to the broader economic environment, as both leisure and corporate travel tend to decline during periods of economic downturn, recession, or reduced business activity, leading to lower occupancy rates and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Rising interest rates can also increase borrowing costs for Hilton and its third-party hotel owners, potentially hampering expansion efforts and profitability. Furthermore, inflationary pressures, particularly in labor, utilities, and food costs, can erode profit margins if the company cannot offset these increases with higher room rates. Global geopolitical events, such as wars or political instability, can also negatively impact travel patterns and consumer confidence.
  2. Cybersecurity Threats and Data Security

    The hospitality industry, including Hilton, is a prime target for cyberattacks due to the extensive amount of sensitive customer data, including personally identifiable information and payment details, that it processes and stores. A significant cybersecurity breach could result in substantial legal liabilities, regulatory penalties, severe damage to the company's brand reputation, and operational disruptions. The necessity to continually update information technology systems and keep pace with technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, also presents ongoing risks to operations and competitive positioning.
  3. Dependence on Third-Party Hotel Owners and Franchisees

    Hilton's "asset-light" business model relies heavily on management and franchise contracts with third-party hotel owners. This model introduces several risks, including the necessity of maintaining strong relationships with these owners and ensuring the renewal of contracts. Owners may also terminate contracts if specified financial or performance criteria are not met. Additionally, the growth of Hilton's management and franchise business is influenced by external market factors affecting real estate development, such as site availability and financing costs, and negative pricing trends in the industry for management and franchise fees could adversely affect its ability to negotiate favorable terms.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The continued growth and diversification of short-term rental platforms, most notably Airbnb, poses an emerging threat. These platforms offer alternative lodging options that directly compete with Hilton's various hotel brands for leisure, family, and increasingly, business travelers. They provide different value propositions, such as unique local experiences, more space, or potentially lower costs for extended stays, thereby attracting customers who might otherwise opt for a traditional hotel stay.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) operates within the global hospitality industry, with its primary products and services encompassing hotel ownership, leasing, management, development, and franchising.

The addressable markets for Hilton Worldwide's main products and services are as follows:

  • Global Hotels Market (Hotel Ownership and Operations): The global hotels market size was valued at USD 2,080.57 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow from USD 2,197.80 billion in 2026 to USD 3,931.42 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.54% during the forecast period.
  • Global Hotel Franchising Market: The global hotel franchise market size was valued at USD 46.31 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 83.83 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.7% from 2025-2032.
  • Global Hotel Management Market: The global hotel management market size was USD 3,625.2 million (USD 3.625 billion) in 2024. This market, valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2021, is projected to reach over USD 7.25 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 6.275%.

AI Analysis | Feedback

```html

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Aggressive Net Unit Growth and Global Expansion: Hilton is focused on expanding its global footprint, targeting a net unit growth of 6% to 7% for both 2025 and 2026. This expansion is supported by a record-breaking development pipeline, with approximately 60% of new rooms located outside the United States, particularly in high-growth markets such as Asia Pacific and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The company also leverages conversions, which accounted for roughly 40% of room openings in 2025, to accelerate growth and add fee-generating properties efficiently.
  2. Comparable System-Wide RevPAR Growth: Hilton projects continued growth in comparable system-wide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). For the full year 2024, growth was projected between 2% and 4% on a comparable currency basis, with 2025 estimates ranging from 0% to 2% and 2026 forecasts at 1% to 2%. This growth is expected to be fueled by strong international performance, robust group and leisure demand, and an increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR).
  3. Diversification of Brand Portfolio and Market Segments: The company is strategically expanding its brand portfolio to capture a broader market share and cater to evolving traveler needs. This includes a strong emphasis on growing the all-inclusive and extended-stay segments, with the introduction of brands like LivSmart Studios. Hilton is also expanding its luxury and lifestyle brands globally, including recent acquisitions like Graduate Hotels and partnerships such as NoMad and Small Luxury Hotels of the World (SLH), and launching new brands like the Apartment Collection and Outset Collection.
  4. Enhanced Hilton Honors Loyalty Program: Hilton continues to invest in and enhance its Hilton Honors loyalty program to drive repeat business and increase guest satisfaction. Approaching 226 million members, the program has seen updates like a faster path to elite status and a new premium tier, which are designed to improve member engagement and drive demand across its portfolio.
  5. Asset-Light Business Model Driving Fee Revenue: Hilton operates primarily on an asset-light model, where a significant portion of its revenue is derived from high-margin management and franchise fees. As the company aggressively expands its global presence and increases its net unit count, the recurring fee revenue from these new and existing properties is a direct driver of top-line growth. This model provides a strong buffer and consistent profitability, even amidst varying market conditions.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions for Hilton Worldwide (HLT) (Last 3-5 Years)

Share Repurchases

  • Hilton repurchased $2.3 billion of shares in 2023.
  • In 2022, the company repurchased $1.608 billion of common stock.
  • As of January 2026, Hilton's Board of Directors authorized an additional $3.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing the total amount authorized for future repurchases to approximately $4.6 billion.

Share Issuance

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings did not report any significant share issuances in the last 3-5 years. The number of shares outstanding has generally decreased, reflecting the impact of share repurchase programs.

Outbound Investments

  • In March 2024, Hilton announced an agreement to acquire the Graduate Hotels® brand for $210 million, with existing properties entering into long-term Hilton franchise agreements.
  • In April 2024, Hilton announced the acquisition of a majority controlling interest in Sydell Group, the owner of NoMad Hotels, with plans to expand the luxury lifestyle brand globally.

Capital Expenditures

  • Total capital expenditures were $247 million in 2023.
  • In 2022, capital expenditures amounted to $102 million.
  • For 2024, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $96 million.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures includes spending on technology, buildings and leasehold improvements to support sales and marketing, resort operations, and corporate activities, as well as renovations of existing assets to maintain competitiveness.

Better Bets vs. Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

HLT has outperformed 90% of its 21 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peers over 5Y. Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ranks 4th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines constituents that HLT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
52%
of 21 industry peers · 15.0% return
3Y
86%
of 21 industry peers · 102.4% return
5Y
90%
of 21 industry peers · 136.3% return
No Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten HLT by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines is HLT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -15.6%76.9%68.6% LINC 298% · PRDO 228% · UTI 224%
Homebuilding 18 -13.4%25.9%47.3% GRBK 187% · PHM 153% · TOL 123%
Specialty Stores 7 1.5%39.8%4.9% SIG 31% · FIVE 22% · ASO 14%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← 22 12.0%42.6%1.5% RCL 203% · MAR 146% · HLT 136%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -26.6%-6.0%1.4% HVT 13% · LOW 1% · HD 1%
Automotive Retail 18 -21.2%-4.9%-2.0% MUSA 224% · PAG 149% · ORLY 112%
Distributors 4 -12.8%-27.1%-13.0% ARMK 157% · GPC 21% · LKQ -47%
Home Furnishings 4 -7.7%19.8%-14.9% SGI 40% · LZB 1% · MHK -31%
Restaurants 35 -15.4%-17.8%-19.0% EAT 292% · CAKE 141% · BH-A 126%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -17.7%18.1%-21.0% HRB 108% · FTDR 73% · SCI 37%
Footwear 9 45.7%41.5%-21.2% WEYS 163% · SHOO 19% · DECK 8%
Leisure Products 13 -26.9%-22.9%-36.0% GOLF 70% · HAS 10% · BC -23%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 -12.4%0.0%-37.7% RL 228% · TPR 223% · ELA 198%
Leisure Facilities 11 -4.7%0.0%-37.9% OSW 124% · JAKK 110% · ESCA 25%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -15.4%-15.6%-39.9% MOD 1579% · GTX 309% · BWA 80%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -14.1%-30.6%-41.9% MCRI 106% · RRR 36% · BYD 25%
Apparel Retail 25 -9.3%10.1%-43.3% ANF 264% · URBN 131% · ROST 109%
Household Appliances 18 -7.1%8.5%-43.9% KEQU 157% · FLXS 145% · HBB 128%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -12.5%29.2%-55.8% BBY 7% · GME -56% · UPBD -63%
Broadline Retail 15 -8.1%12.7%-57.5% DDS 310% · EBAY 65% · AMZN 47%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -79.1%-52.6%-73.2% GM 67% · TSLA 44% · F 33%
Consumer Electronics 11 -14.6%-17.8%-76.6% AXIL 2695% · GRMN 81% · SONO -58%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -37.7%-48.9%-78.8% TLF 114% · BBW 65% · WINA 55%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Mkt Price305.73338.92155.0468.0696.8521.84125.94
Mkt Cap69.489.414.65.14.415.014.8
Rev LTM12,48526,9047,1521,4181,6196,2196,686
Op Inc LTM2,9154,233510533413893713
FCF LTM1,9393,1322523231151,017670
FCF 3Y Avg1,9342,502346285141905626
CFO LTM2,1093,7284433712221,6061,024
CFO 3Y Avg2,1283,1335303302761,4911,011

Growth & Margins

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Rev Chg LTM8.7%4.7%5.8%-2.2%2.6%4.9%4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.6%5.5%3.2%0.1%1.8%6.0%4.3%
Rev Chg Q6.5%4.8%1.2%-5.5%3.4%3.4%3.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%1.2%0.3%-1.5%0.9%0.9%0.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM20.1%7.2%16.4%-9.2%-13.3%9.2%8.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg8.5%1.6%7.6%2.9%-3.6%3.5%3.2%
Op Mgn LTM23.3%15.7%7.1%37.6%25.5%14.4%19.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.1%15.7%6.3%38.6%27.6%13.9%18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.3%0.4%1.6%-1.5%0.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM16.9%13.9%6.2%26.2%13.7%25.8%15.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.4%12.2%7.8%23.2%17.5%25.4%17.9%
FCF/Rev LTM15.5%11.6%3.5%22.8%7.1%16.4%13.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.7%9.7%5.1%20.0%8.9%15.4%12.6%

Valuation

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Mkt Cap69.489.414.65.14.415.014.8
P/S5.63.32.03.62.72.43.0
P/Op Inc23.821.128.79.610.616.818.9
P/EBIT23.920.727.311.78.811.216.2
P/E43.834.6185.124.513.314.629.6
P/CFO32.924.033.013.819.79.321.9
Total Yield2.5%3.7%0.9%6.6%8.7%11.2%5.1%
Dividend Yield0.2%0.8%0.4%2.5%1.2%4.4%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%3.1%2.2%4.6%2.5%7.0%3.1%
D/E0.20.20.30.50.50.40.3
Net D/E0.20.20.30.50.50.20.3

Returns

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
1M Rtn-8.6%-5.7%-15.2%-9.7%-11.3%-5.7%-9.2%
3M Rtn-12.3%-14.3%-23.2%-18.7%-15.6%-9.3%-14.9%
6M Rtn4.6%6.4%9.3%-9.6%-0.3%23.2%5.5%
12M Rtn15.0%29.5%9.0%-16.2%-10.9%34.3%12.0%
3Y Rtn102.4%75.6%48.7%-1.4%-19.3%61.6%55.1%
1M Excs Rtn-7.9%-4.9%-14.5%-9.0%-10.6%-4.9%-8.4%
3M Excs Rtn-14.3%-16.3%-25.2%-20.7%-17.6%-11.3%-16.9%
6M Excs Rtn-13.1%-11.1%-8.2%-28.2%-18.0%4.2%-12.1%
12M Excs Rtn-0.9%14.5%-5.6%-32.6%-27.8%19.0%-3.3%
3Y Excs Rtn29.5%2.8%-21.2%-73.5%-90.9%-6.5%-13.9%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cost reimbursement revenues7,0856,4285,827  
Management and franchise3,5753,3393,0552,6191,809
Ownership1,2331,2551,2441,076598
Other revenues25223217810279
Intersegment fees elimination-49-30-26-23-10
Amortization of contract acquisition costs-57-50-43-38-32
Other revenues from managed and franchised properties   5,0373,344
Total12,03911,17410,2358,7735,788


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20232022202120202019
Management and franchise3,0552,6191,8091,1382,315
Ownership7754-91-202125
Other revenues, less other expenses6642341329
Gain\Loss on sale of assets, net0 -7 81
Impairment losses-38 0-258 
Amortization of contract acquisition costs-43-38-32-29-29
Depreciation and amortization expenses-147-162-188-331-346
Net other expenses from managed and franchised properties-337-39-110-397-77
General and administrative expenses-408-382-405-311-441
Reorganization costs   -41 
Total2,2252,0941,010-4181,657


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20212020201920182017
Management and franchise11,40411,06511,45511,36211,454
Corporate and other2,9764,4481,8921,7061,890
Ownership1,0611,2421,610927964
Total15,44116,75514,95713,99514,308


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$305.73 
Market Cap ($ Bil)69.4 
First Trading Date12/12/2013 
Distance from 52W High-12.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$319.58$313.92
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-4.3%-2.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility22.5%23.5%
Downside Capture74.3441.09
Upside Capture-3.2550.06
Correlation (SPY)8.6%33.0%
HLT Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.660.120.120.690.610.88
Up Beta-1.62-1.06-0.510.990.960.86
Down Beta1.001.220.150.560.600.92
Up Capture-33%9%22%49%42%81%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days8203162122404
Down Capture-25%62%45%72%54%94%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days13223365129346

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HLT
HLT15.0%23.4%0.53-
Sector ETF (XLY)-7.6%19.5%-0.5340.9%
Equity (SPY)16.9%12.9%0.9432.8%
Gold (GLD)19.1%29.3%0.6011.6%
Commodities (DBC)46.9%20.6%1.76-32.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%13.6%0.1038.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-34.5%43.9%-0.849.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HLT
HLT19.5%26.9%0.66-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.8%24.1%0.1664.4%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.2%0.5763.1%
Gold (GLD)19.1%18.8%0.833.7%
Commodities (DBC)11.3%19.5%0.456.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.1%18.8%-0.0547.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)11.2%52.5%0.3926.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HLT
HLT20.8%28.7%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLY)11.8%22.2%0.4962.9%
Equity (SPY)15.1%18.0%0.7261.1%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.4%0.610.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%18.1%0.3717.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%20.7%0.1849.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.7%66.1%1.0214.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 81520263.0%
Average Daily Volume1.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity227.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/28/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/28/2026-2.5%-5.0%-0.4%
4/28/2026-2.7%-6.3%1.3%
2/11/20260.4%-2.4%-9.1%
10/22/20253.4%-1.9%0.4%
7/23/2025-2.6%-0.3%-1.4%
4/29/20252.2%7.8%13.2%
2/6/20254.9%6.1%-4.1%
10/23/2024-1.9%0.4%5.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative121311
Median Positive2.5%3.7%5.4%
Median Negative-2.2%-2.4%-4.1%
Max Positive4.9%15.0%20.4%
Max Negative-4.4%-14.2%-10.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/28/2026-2.5%-5.0%-0.4%
4/28/2026-2.7%-6.3%1.3%
2/11/20260.4%-2.4%-9.1%
10/22/20253.4%-1.9%0.4%
7/23/2025-2.6%-0.3%-1.4%
4/29/20252.2%7.8%13.2%
2/6/20254.9%6.1%-4.1%
10/23/2024-1.9%0.4%5.1%
8/7/2024-1.7%-0.9%4.4%
4/24/20243.9%0.1%3.8%
2/7/20240.7%-2.3%5.4%
10/25/20230.7%1.3%14.4%
7/26/2023-0.6%2.3%-0.8%
4/26/2023-3.4%-0.3%-6.4%
2/9/20232.4%3.7%-4.5%
10/26/2022-0.5%2.4%6.2%
5/3/2022-4.2%-14.2%-10.8%
2/16/2022-1.1%-9.3%-4.3%
10/27/20211.9%-2.2%0.6%
7/29/20213.8%-4.0%-3.0%
5/5/2021-4.4%-5.0%-4.0%
2/17/2021-1.9%7.3%11.9%
11/4/20202.7%15.0%20.4%
8/6/20203.4%7.4%14.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative121311
Median Positive2.5%3.7%5.4%
Median Negative-2.2%-2.4%-4.1%
Max Positive4.9%15.0%20.4%
Max Negative-4.4%-14.2%-10.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/28/202610-Q
03/31/202604/28/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/22/202510-Q
06/30/202507/23/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/06/202510-K
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/09/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/28/202610-Q
03/31/202604/28/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/22/202510-Q
06/30/202507/23/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/06/202510-K
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/09/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202205/03/202210-Q
12/31/202102/16/202210-K
09/30/202110/27/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202105/05/202110-Q
12/31/202002/17/202110-K
09/30/202011/04/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/11/202010-K
09/30/201910/23/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/29/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Revenue GrowthReported 4.0%  1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 2.5% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported1.03 Bil1.04 Bil1.05 Bil2.0% Higher NewGuidance: 1.02 Bil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Net IncomeReported502.00 Mil509.00 Mil516.00 Mil2.2% Higher NewGuidance: 498.00 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 EPSReported2.22.232.26   
2026 DividendsReported 3.50 Bil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue GrowthReported3.0%3.25%  0.8%RaisedGuidance: 2.5% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.04 Bil4.06 Bil4.08 Bil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 4.04 Bil for 2026
2026 Net IncomeReported1.88 Bil1.90 Bil1.91 Bil-1.4% LoweredGuidance: 1.92 Bil for 2026
2026 EPSReported8.228.298.35   
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 300.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported2.0%2.5%3.0%   
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported1.01 Bil1.02 Bil1.03 Bil   
Q2 2026 Net IncomeReported491.00 Mil498.00 Mil505.00 Mil   
2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported2.0%2.5%3.0% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 1.5% for 2026
2026 Capital ReturnReported 3.50 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Net unit growthReported6.0%6.5%7.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 6.5% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.02 Bil4.04 Bil4.06 Bil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 4.02 Bil for 2026
2026 Net IncomeReported1.91 Bil1.92 Bil1.94 Bil-3.7% LoweredGuidance: 2.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 300.00 Mil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported1.0%1.5%2.0% 0.5%Higher NewActual: 1.0% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported875.00 Mil885.00 Mil895.00 Mil-3.9% Lower NewActual: 921.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Net IncomeReported436.00 Mil443.00 Mil450.00 Mil-1.9% Lower NewActual: 451.50 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Diluted EPSReported1.871.91.93-0.8% Lower NewActual: 1.92 for Q4 2025
2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported1.0%1.5%2.0% 1.0%Higher NewActual: 0.5% for 2025
2026 Capital ReturnReported 3.50 Bil 6.1% Higher NewActual: 3.30 Bil for 2025
2026 Net Unit GrowthReported6.0%6.5%7.0% -0.2%Lower NewActual: 6.75% for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.00 Bil4.02 Bil4.04 Bil8.6% Higher NewActual: 3.70 Bil for 2025
2026 Net IncomeReported1.98 Bil2.00 Bil2.01 Bil23.7% Higher NewActual: 1.61 Bil for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 RevPAR GrowthReported 1.0%  1.5%Higher NewGuidance: -0.5% for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDAReported906.00 Mil921.00 Mil936.00 Mil-2.5% Lower NewGuidance: 945.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Net IncomeReported441.00 Mil451.50 Mil462.00 Mil-1.8% Lower NewGuidance: 460.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Diluted EPSReported1.871.921.96-0.3% Lower NewGuidance: 1.92 for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Diluted EPS AdjustedReported1.941.992.03   
2025 RevPAR GrowthReported0.0%0.5% -50.0%-0.5%LoweredGuidance: 1.0% for 2025
2025 Capital ReturnReported 3.30 Bil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 3.30 Bil for 2025
2025 General and Administrative ExpensesReported410.00 Mil415.00 Mil420.00 Mil   
2025 Net Unit GrowthReported6.5%6.75%7.0%3.8%0.2%RaisedGuidance: 6.5% for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDAReported3.69 Bil3.70 Bil3.71 Bil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 3.68 Bil for 2025
2025 Net IncomeReported1.60 Bil1.61 Bil1.62 Bil-2.8% LoweredGuidance: 1.66 Bil for 2025
2025 Diluted EPSReported6.716.756.8-2.2% LoweredGuidance: 6.91 for 2025
2025 Diluted EPS AdjustedReported7.978.028.06   
2025 Capital ExpendituresReported250.00 Mil275.00 Mil300.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 275.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/15/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Fuentes, LauraSee RemarksDirectSell9152026309.817,2892,258,21810,365,681Form
2Carr, Chris DirectSell9152026310.34439136,2392,560,861Form
3Nassetta, Christopher JSee RemarksDirectSell2182026317.47114,28936,283,55911,570,268Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Fuentes, LauraSee RemarksDirectSell9152026309.817,2892,258,21810,365,681Form
2Carr, Chris DirectSell9152026310.34439136,2392,560,861Form
3Nassetta, Christopher JSee RemarksDirectSell2182026317.47114,28936,283,55911,570,268Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 19, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gray Foundation$222.5 Mil56.1%11Hold13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$92.1 Mil12.1%10ADD +35.5%13F
GFI Investment Counsel Ltd.$75.6 Mil10.3%24New13F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$324.4 Mil10.2%14TRIM -8.3%13F
Hudson Way Capital Management LLC$80.2 Mil7.7%16TRIM -22.1%13F
One Madison Group LLC$37.4 Mil4.3%28ADD +11.9%13F
Broad Run Investment Management, LLC$19.5 Mil3.4%24Hold13F
Skye Global Management LP$127.7 Mil2.8%44Hold13F
Kensico Capital Management Corp$98.1 Mil2.0%20Hold13F
Archon Partners LLC$15.4 Mil1.8%39Hold13F
Legacy CG, LLC$5.8 Mil1.6%45Hold13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$224.0 Mil1.6%44TRIM -7.1%13F
Stony Point Capital LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%31New13F
Hazelview Securities Inc.$5.9 Mil1.1%45TRIM -55.7%13F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$27.1 Mil0.2%36ADD +54.4%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
GFI Investment Counsel Ltd.$75.6 Mil10.3%24New13F
Stony Point Capital LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%31New13F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$27.1 Mil0.2%36ADD +54.4%13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$92.1 Mil12.1%10ADD +35.5%13F
One Madison Group LLC$37.4 Mil4.3%28ADD +11.9%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.$870.0 Mil5.6%11ExitedDec 31, 202513F
BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S$293.3 Mil9.9%12ExitedDec 31, 202513F
SurgoCap Partners LP$144.7 Mil4.0%17ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Consulta Ltd$86.2 Mil4.2%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Hazelview Securities Inc.$5.9 Mil1.1%45TRIM -55.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Hudson Way Capital Management LLC$80.2 Mil7.7%16TRIM -22.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$324.4 Mil10.2%14TRIM -8.3%Mar 31, 202613F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$224.0 Mil1.6%44TRIM -7.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$324.4 Mil10.2%14TRIM -8.3%13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$224.0 Mil1.6%44TRIM -7.1%13F
Gray Foundation$222.5 Mil56.1%11Hold13F
Skye Global Management LP$127.7 Mil2.8%44Hold13F
Kensico Capital Management Corp$98.1 Mil2.0%20Hold13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$92.1 Mil12.1%10ADD +35.5%13F
Hudson Way Capital Management LLC$80.2 Mil7.7%16TRIM -22.1%13F
GFI Investment Counsel Ltd.$75.6 Mil10.3%24New13F
One Madison Group LLC$37.4 Mil4.3%28ADD +11.9%13F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$27.1 Mil0.2%36ADD +54.4%13F
Broad Run Investment Management, LLC$19.5 Mil3.4%24Hold13F
Stony Point Capital LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%31New13F
Archon Partners LLC$15.4 Mil1.8%39Hold13F
Hazelview Securities Inc.$5.9 Mil1.1%45TRIM -55.7%13F
Legacy CG, LLC$5.8 Mil1.6%45Hold13F

HLT Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is constructive, centered on a best-in-class growth algorithm. While near-term revenue headwinds and rising debt are notable, the underlying expansion of the high-margin, fee-based network appears intact and is currently under-appreciated.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise & Royalty / Service Provider

(Number of System-wide Rooms * RevPAR) + Licensing & Other Fees Mix shift towards the capital-light, high-margin Management and Franchise segment, which requires minimal incremental capital to grow.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can the unit growth flywheel outpace cyclical fears?

Hilton's capital-light model is compounding rooms at a best-in-class rate, supported by a record development pipeline.

Mechanism:
Supporting Evidence:
  • Net Unit Growth was 6.1% for the year ended June 30, 2026.
  • The development pipeline reached a record 541,300 rooms.
  • U.S. new development construction starts increased over 40% YoY in Q2 2026.
  • The Hilton Honors loyalty program grew to 260 million members.
PRIMARY RISK
Aggressive Payouts Strain Balance Sheet

The company is funding a massive shareholder return program with debt, increasing financial risk ahead of a potential cyclical slowdown.

Mechanism: A downturn in travel demand would pressure cash flows, making it difficult to service the $13 billion in net debt.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Net debt increased to $13 billion from $11.3 billion year-over-year.
  • Full-year RevPAR in the Middle East is expected to decline by double-digits.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
System-wide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) Growth3.9% year-over-year growth for Q2 2026 - AcceleratingThe year-over-year growth rate has accelerated for two consecutive quarters. Management attributed the latest quarter's strength to underlying demand recovery in the U.S. for business transient and group travel, in addition to a strong World Cup.
Net Unit Growth (NUG)6.1% year-over-year for the twelve months ended Q2 2026 - StableWhile the growth rate has slightly moderated, it remains robust and within management's full-year target range of 6% to 7%. The development pipeline reached a record 541,000 rooms, supporting future growth visibility.
Development Pipeline (Rooms)541,300 (As of 6/30/2026)Indicates future net unit growth, as it represents hotels expected to be added to the system. Almost half of the pipeline is under construction.
Hilton Honors Members260 million (As of 6/30/2026)The size and growth of the loyalty program, which generates significant repeat business and encourages members to allocate more travel spend to Hilton properties.
Core Investment Debate

Pipeline Growth vs. Guidance Fears

BULL VIEW

Bulls focus on the record 541,300-room pipeline and 6.1% unit growth, seeing a durable expansion story that will power earnings for years, regardless of quarterly RevPAR fluctuations.

CORE TENSION

Can the structural tailwind from a record pipeline offset the cyclical headwind from geopolitical conflict, which is expected to cause a double-digit RevPAR decline in the Middle East?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls. System-wide RevPAR growth accelerated to 3.9% in Q2, and management raised its full-year 2026 RevPAR guidance, suggesting underlying strength outside of specific challenged regions.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see soft Q3 guidance and two negative earnings reactions as proof that cyclical headwinds are intensifying, making the company's high leverage and debt-funded buybacks increasingly risky.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
10/20/2026
Slowing Revenue Momentum
Watch: Q3 revenue growth rate versus the 6.5% reported for Q2 and management's Q3 guidance.
10/20/2026
Middle East Conflict Drag
Watch: Updated MEA RevPAR results for Q3 and any change to the full-year regional outlook.
10/20/2026
Next Earnings Report
Watch: Hilton Worldwide is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 20, 2026.
11/3/2026
Peer Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) is scheduled to report earnings.
11/3/2026
Peer Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Choice Hotels International (CHH) is scheduled to report earnings.
11/4/2026
Peer RevPAR Outperformance
Watch: Hyatt's Q3 RevPAR growth rate relative to Hilton's reported Q3 figure.
November 15, 2026
Senior Notes Interest Payment
Watch: The first semi-annual interest payment is due for the 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-09-02
Management Highlights Asia Growth
Details: In early September, press reports highlighted management commentary calling one Asian country the 'most exciting market for travel and tourism globally' for the next decade.
+0.8%
$311.99 -> $314.35
2026-07-28
Q2 Earnings and Guidance Update
Details: Hilton reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.29, exceeding expectations, and raised its full-year guidance for revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS. The stock's two-day reaction was -3.0%.
-2.8%
$330.70 -> $321.57
2026-05-07
Senior Notes Offering Priced
Details: The company's subsidiary finalized terms for an offering of $1 billion in aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031.
-1.5%
$321.21 -> $316.49
2026-04-28
Q1 Earnings and Outlook
Details: Hilton reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.01 and raised its full-year outlook. Despite the positive report, the stock had a two-day negative reaction of -5.0%.
-5.4%
$332.14 -> $314.21
2026-03-10
Hilton AI Planner Launched
Details: The company introduced a new generative AI-powered digital concierge to help travelers plan stays. The tool was in beta testing as of the announcement.
-2.2%
$303.18 -> $296.58
Risk Management
Position Sizing

5% - 7%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: HLT trades at roughly 26% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market), around the 65th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
MAR - Marriott International
Global Scale Leader

Marriott offers superior global scale, with revenue 2.2 times that of Hilton. This larger network is a key advantage for attracting large corporate travel accounts.

Core Thesis: An investment in the largest global hotel operator, benefiting from a powerful network effect and brand portfolio.
WH - Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
Focused Value Play

Core Thesis: A high-margin operator focused on the budget-conscious travel segment.
How Is The Market Pricing HLT?

Hilton is a capital-light brand licensor and service provider whose primary asset is its network effect, not its physical real estate.

The company's value is driven by the growth of its high-margin, fee-based Management and Franchise segment. By licensing its powerful brands and leveraging its 260 million-member loyalty program, Hilton adds new hotel rooms to its system with minimal capital investment. This creates a virtuous cycle, or 'flywheel,' where more hotels enhance the loyalty program's value, which in turn drives more guests to the hotels, increasing owner profitability and attracting more developers to Hilton's brands.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained net unit growth at or above the 6-7% target, continued RevPAR premiums versus the industry, and strong growth in the development pipeline.

What will damage the thesis

A significant slowdown in new hotel signings or construction starts, erosion of RevPAR premiums, or a material decline in Hilton Honors member engagement.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term fluctuations in the small Ownership segment's performance due to renovations or specific market events.

Repricing Catalyst

Management's expectation for continued strong RevPAR growth driven by macro tailwinds in the U.S., including increased private sector investment in AI, public infrastructure spending, and historically low levels of new hotel supply.

What HLT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Management and franchise
$3.7B TTM (30% of Total)
What It Is

This segment provides hotel management services to third-party hotel owners and licenses its brands and operating systems to franchisees. It also earns licensing fees from strategic partners like co-branded credit card providers.

Who Pays & How

Third-party hotel owners and developers pay fees to affiliate with Hilton's brands, gaining access to its global reservation system, marketing programs, and the Hilton Honors loyalty program, which drives repeat business and enhances property performance.

Management fees consist of a base fee (percentage of hotel's gross operating revenue) and an incentive fee (percentage of hotel's operating profits). Franchisees pay a royalty fee (percentage of gross room revenue) plus other program and service fees.
Competition
Primary competitors on a global scale include Marriott International, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, and Choice Hotels International.
Competitors may have greater commercial, financial, and marketing resources or more efficient technology platforms.
Hilton's moat is its portfolio of strong, well-defined brands, a global system-wide guest loyalty program (Hilton Honors), and a commercial platform that delivers industry-leading RevPAR premiums to owners.
Ownership
$1.2B TTM (10% of Total)
What It Is

This segment includes hotels that Hilton owns or leases, deriving revenue primarily from the sale of hotel rooms, food and beverage, and other services directly to guests.

Who Pays & How

Hotel guests (business and leisure travelers) pay for lodging and other services. They choose Hilton's owned properties for their location, brand reputation, service quality, and ability to earn/redeem Hilton Honors points.

Transactional, based on nightly hotel room rates (Average Daily Rate - ADR) and other service charges.
Competition
Competes with other hotels, resorts, and lodging services in jejich respective geographic markets, including facilities owned by local interests, individuals, and national/international chains.
The moat for owned properties is tied to the strength of the Hilton brand, location, and integration with the Hilton Honors loyalty program.
HLT Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2025 · Dominance of Fee-Based Model
+171%
Over the past several years, Hilton has solidified its capital-light strategy.
· Brand and Pipeline Expansion
The company has launched 20 new brands over the last two decades, which are expected to drive more than half of future net unit growth. This strategy has expanded its addressable market and fueled a record development pipeline of over 541,000 rooms as of mid-2026, positioning the company for sustained 6% to 7% annual net unit growth.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are clearly negative. OBV (on-balance volume) and volume character point to institutional exit. Earnings history is neutral. The market reaction and subsequent drift do not give a clear directional signal.
① Structure
-3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-5 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Broken In Short Term · -
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Emerging Resilience
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/18/2026