Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $305.74 | Market Cap: $69.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $305.74Market Cap: $69.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.3 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x Key risksHLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x |
| Key risksHLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hilton's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance fell below analyst expectations. Despite reporting adjusted EPS of $2.29 for fiscal Q2 2026, which beat analyst estimates of $2.27, the company's projected adjusted EPS for fiscal Q3 2026 was $2.28-$2.34, below the analyst consensus of $2.42.
2. There are indications of cooling RevPAR growth in the U.S. hotel sector and significant regional weakness. While weekly U.S. RevPAR gains averaged near 8.0% in June and early July 2026, this growth softened to 6.0%-7.0% in August. Furthermore, the Middle East and Africa region experienced an approximately 30% year-over-year decline in RevPAR during fiscal Q2 2026 due to regional conflict, with a full-year 2026 forecast projecting a high single to low double-digit decrease.
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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Hilton's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance fell below analyst expectations. Despite reporting adjusted EPS of $2.29 for fiscal Q2 2026, which beat analyst estimates of $2.27, the company's projected adjusted EPS for fiscal Q3 2026 was $2.28-$2.34, below the analyst consensus of $2.42.
2. There are indications of cooling RevPAR growth in the U.S. hotel sector and significant regional weakness. While weekly U.S. RevPAR gains averaged near 8.0% in June and early July 2026, this growth softened to 6.0%-7.0% in August. Furthermore, the Middle East and Africa region experienced an approximately 30% year-over-year decline in RevPAR during fiscal Q2 2026 due to regional conflict, with a full-year 2026 forecast projecting a high single to low double-digit decrease.
3. Rising hotel rates are a concern for corporate booking volumes, potentially impacting future demand. A survey of travel managers in June and July 2026 revealed that while 63% anticipate increased hotel spending for full-year 2026, only 53% expect an increase in booking volume, suggesting that higher rates are driving spending more than increased travel. The forecast for the U.S. hotel average daily rate (ADR) growth for full-year 2026 has tripled to 3.1% year-over-year, indicating potentially higher costs for consumers and businesses.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.7% change in HLT stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 327.51 | 305.73 | -6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,281 | 12,485 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 12.7% | 1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.6 | 43.8 | -9.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 229 | 227 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | -6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 8.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.1% | 18.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.9% change in HLT stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 311.49 | 305.73 | -1.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,039 | 12,485 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.1% | 12.7% | 4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 49.8 | 43.8 | -12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 233 | 227 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | -1.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.8% | 45.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.0% change in HLT stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 275.52 | 305.73 | 11.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,482 | 12,485 | 8.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 12.7% | -8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.1 | 43.8 | 6.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 237 | 227 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | 11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 32.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.6% | 40.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 107.2% change in HLT stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 147.56 | 305.73 | 107.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,765 | 12,485 | 27.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 12.7% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.2 | 43.8 | 45.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 264 | 227 | 16.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 107.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | 107.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 58.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 33.0% | 59.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLT Return | 40% | -19% | 45% | 36% | 16% | 5% | 176% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -13% | 28% | 19% | -7% | 6% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 57% | 58% | 52% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLT Max Drawdown | -14% | -33% | -14% | -12% | -26% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -32% | -19% | -18% | -35% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | HLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 300 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a leading global hospitality company that operates by owning, leasing, managing, developing, and franchising a vast portfolio of hotels and resorts. The company primarily generates revenue through two segments: managing properties for other owners and licensing its established brands to independent operators (Management and Franchise), and directly owning or leasing properties itself (Ownership).
The core products and services Hilton offers are lodging experiences across a wide range of hotel brands, catering to diverse traveler preferences and budgets. These include luxury brands like Waldorf Astoria, full-service options such as Hilton Hotels & Resorts and DoubleTree, and focused-service or extended-stay brands like Hampton by Hilton and Homewood Suites. Essentially, Hilton sells hotel stays and brand recognition, ensuring consistent quality and amenities across its nearly 7,000 properties.
Hilton's primary customers are individual and business travelers seeking accommodation for leisure, business trips, or extended stays. Its extensive global footprint covers North America, South America, Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific, serving a broad international market across 122 countries and territories.
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- Marriott International for hotels.
- McDonald's, but for hotel brands and properties.
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- Hotel Management Services: Hilton provides comprehensive management services for hotels and resorts owned by third parties, overseeing daily operations, marketing, and guest services.
- Hotel Franchising Services: Hilton licenses its diverse portfolio of hotel brands to independent owners and operators, providing them with brand recognition, reservation systems, and operational support.
- Lodging and Hospitality Services: Hilton directly operates and offers accommodation, dining, and various hospitality amenities to guests at its owned and leased hotels and resorts worldwide.
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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) primarily serves individuals and groups who utilize its hotel and resort properties.
The major categories of customers Hilton serves are:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families who stay at Hilton properties for vacations, personal travel, recreation, or weekend getaways.
- Business Travelers: Individuals who stay at Hilton properties for work-related purposes, including corporate meetings, conferences, training sessions, or individual business trips.
- Group Travelers & Event Planners: Organizations, companies, or individuals booking blocks of rooms or event spaces for conferences, conventions, social gatherings, weddings, and other organized events.
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Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer
Christopher J. Nassetta was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Hilton in December 2007. Before joining Hilton, he served as President and CEO of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. from 2000. He co-founded Bailey Capital Corporation in 1991, a private real estate investment and advisory firm where he oversaw operations. Prior to that, he spent seven years at The Oliver Carr Company, rising to Chief Development Officer. Nassetta played a key role in transforming Hilton after its 2007 acquisition by Blackstone, converting what was initially a challenging private equity investment into a highly profitable one. He is recognized in the finance and real estate business as a restructuring expert who can fix struggling companies.
Kevin Jacobs, Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development
Kevin Jacobs is the Chief Financial Officer for Hilton, leading the company's finance, real estate, and corporate strategy functions globally. He joined Hilton in 2008 as Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, was elected Treasurer in 2009, appointed Executive Vice President & Chief of Staff in 2012, and assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in 2013. From 2020 to 2025, Jacobs also held the position of President, Global Development. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc., an equity REIT.
Laura Fuentes, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Laura Fuentes joined Hilton in 2013 and was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer in 2020. In this role, she is responsible for human resources and leads Hilton Supply Management. Before her time at Hilton, Fuentes spent six years at Capital One Financial in various corporate strategy and human resources positions. Prior to Capital One, she worked at McKinsey & Company in their Madrid, New York, and Washington D.C. offices, advising clients in the financial services and non-profit sectors.
Danny Hughes, Executive Vice President and President, Americas
Danny Hughes is the Executive Vice President and President of the Americas for Hilton, where he is responsible for the company's operations across North, Central, and South America, encompassing over 6,600 hotels. With 35 years of experience in the hospitality industry, he previously served as SVP and Commercial Director in the Americas and SVP, Caribbean and Latin America at Hilton. His career in hospitality began as a chef in his parents' pub in the UK.
Chris Silcock, President, Global Brands and Commercial Services
Chris Silcock serves as President, Global Brands and Commercial Services for Hilton. He leads efforts to drive market-leading performance and innovation across Hilton's global portfolio. His responsibilities include global brand strategy and management, performance support, owner relations, technology, sales, revenue management, distribution, enterprise data and analytics, customer engagement, marketing, and loyalty.
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Here are the key risks to Hilton Worldwide (HLT):
-
Economic Sensitivity and Macroeconomic Factors
Hilton Worldwide's business is highly susceptible to the broader economic environment, as both leisure and corporate travel tend to decline during periods of economic downturn, recession, or reduced business activity, leading to lower occupancy rates and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Rising interest rates can also increase borrowing costs for Hilton and its third-party hotel owners, potentially hampering expansion efforts and profitability. Furthermore, inflationary pressures, particularly in labor, utilities, and food costs, can erode profit margins if the company cannot offset these increases with higher room rates. Global geopolitical events, such as wars or political instability, can also negatively impact travel patterns and consumer confidence. -
Cybersecurity Threats and Data Security
The hospitality industry, including Hilton, is a prime target for cyberattacks due to the extensive amount of sensitive customer data, including personally identifiable information and payment details, that it processes and stores. A significant cybersecurity breach could result in substantial legal liabilities, regulatory penalties, severe damage to the company's brand reputation, and operational disruptions. The necessity to continually update information technology systems and keep pace with technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, also presents ongoing risks to operations and competitive positioning. -
Dependence on Third-Party Hotel Owners and Franchisees
Hilton's "asset-light" business model relies heavily on management and franchise contracts with third-party hotel owners. This model introduces several risks, including the necessity of maintaining strong relationships with these owners and ensuring the renewal of contracts. Owners may also terminate contracts if specified financial or performance criteria are not met. Additionally, the growth of Hilton's management and franchise business is influenced by external market factors affecting real estate development, such as site availability and financing costs, and negative pricing trends in the industry for management and franchise fees could adversely affect its ability to negotiate favorable terms.
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The continued growth and diversification of short-term rental platforms, most notably Airbnb, poses an emerging threat. These platforms offer alternative lodging options that directly compete with Hilton's various hotel brands for leisure, family, and increasingly, business travelers. They provide different value propositions, such as unique local experiences, more space, or potentially lower costs for extended stays, thereby attracting customers who might otherwise opt for a traditional hotel stay.
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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) operates within the global hospitality industry, with its primary products and services encompassing hotel ownership, leasing, management, development, and franchising.
The addressable markets for Hilton Worldwide's main products and services are as follows:
- Global Hotels Market (Hotel Ownership and Operations): The global hotels market size was valued at USD 2,080.57 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow from USD 2,197.80 billion in 2026 to USD 3,931.42 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.54% during the forecast period.
- Global Hotel Franchising Market: The global hotel franchise market size was valued at USD 46.31 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 83.83 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.7% from 2025-2032.
- Global Hotel Management Market: The global hotel management market size was USD 3,625.2 million (USD 3.625 billion) in 2024. This market, valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2021, is projected to reach over USD 7.25 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 6.275%.
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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Aggressive Net Unit Growth and Global Expansion: Hilton is focused on expanding its global footprint, targeting a net unit growth of 6% to 7% for both 2025 and 2026. This expansion is supported by a record-breaking development pipeline, with approximately 60% of new rooms located outside the United States, particularly in high-growth markets such as Asia Pacific and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The company also leverages conversions, which accounted for roughly 40% of room openings in 2025, to accelerate growth and add fee-generating properties efficiently.
- Comparable System-Wide RevPAR Growth: Hilton projects continued growth in comparable system-wide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). For the full year 2024, growth was projected between 2% and 4% on a comparable currency basis, with 2025 estimates ranging from 0% to 2% and 2026 forecasts at 1% to 2%. This growth is expected to be fueled by strong international performance, robust group and leisure demand, and an increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR).
- Diversification of Brand Portfolio and Market Segments: The company is strategically expanding its brand portfolio to capture a broader market share and cater to evolving traveler needs. This includes a strong emphasis on growing the all-inclusive and extended-stay segments, with the introduction of brands like LivSmart Studios. Hilton is also expanding its luxury and lifestyle brands globally, including recent acquisitions like Graduate Hotels and partnerships such as NoMad and Small Luxury Hotels of the World (SLH), and launching new brands like the Apartment Collection and Outset Collection.
- Enhanced Hilton Honors Loyalty Program: Hilton continues to invest in and enhance its Hilton Honors loyalty program to drive repeat business and increase guest satisfaction. Approaching 226 million members, the program has seen updates like a faster path to elite status and a new premium tier, which are designed to improve member engagement and drive demand across its portfolio.
- Asset-Light Business Model Driving Fee Revenue: Hilton operates primarily on an asset-light model, where a significant portion of its revenue is derived from high-margin management and franchise fees. As the company aggressively expands its global presence and increases its net unit count, the recurring fee revenue from these new and existing properties is a direct driver of top-line growth. This model provides a strong buffer and consistent profitability, even amidst varying market conditions.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Hilton Worldwide (HLT) (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Hilton repurchased $2.3 billion of shares in 2023.
- In 2022, the company repurchased $1.608 billion of common stock.
- As of January 2026, Hilton's Board of Directors authorized an additional $3.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing the total amount authorized for future repurchases to approximately $4.6 billion.
Share Issuance
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings did not report any significant share issuances in the last 3-5 years. The number of shares outstanding has generally decreased, reflecting the impact of share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2024, Hilton announced an agreement to acquire the Graduate Hotels® brand for $210 million, with existing properties entering into long-term Hilton franchise agreements.
- In April 2024, Hilton announced the acquisition of a majority controlling interest in Sydell Group, the owner of NoMad Hotels, with plans to expand the luxury lifestyle brand globally.
Capital Expenditures
- Total capital expenditures were $247 million in 2023.
- In 2022, capital expenditures amounted to $102 million.
- For 2024, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $96 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes spending on technology, buildings and leasehold improvements to support sales and marketing, resort operations, and corporate activities, as well as renovations of existing assets to maintain competitiveness.
Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -15.6% | 76.9% | 68.6% | LINC 298% · PRDO 228% · UTI 224% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -13.4% | 25.9% | 47.3% | GRBK 187% · PHM 153% · TOL 123% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 1.5% | 39.8% | 4.9% | SIG 31% · FIVE 22% · ASO 14% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← | 22 | 12.0% | 42.6% | 1.5% | RCL 203% · MAR 146% · HLT 136% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -26.6% | -6.0% | 1.4% | HVT 13% · LOW 1% · HD 1% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -21.2% | -4.9% | -2.0% | MUSA 224% · PAG 149% · ORLY 112% |
| Distributors | 4 | -12.8% | -27.1% | -13.0% | ARMK 157% · GPC 21% · LKQ -47% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -7.7% | 19.8% | -14.9% | SGI 40% · LZB 1% · MHK -31% |
| Restaurants | 35 | -15.4% | -17.8% | -19.0% | EAT 292% · CAKE 141% · BH-A 126% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -17.7% | 18.1% | -21.0% | HRB 108% · FTDR 73% · SCI 37% |
| Footwear | 9 | 45.7% | 41.5% | -21.2% | WEYS 163% · SHOO 19% · DECK 8% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -26.9% | -22.9% | -36.0% | GOLF 70% · HAS 10% · BC -23% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -12.4% | 0.0% | -37.7% | RL 228% · TPR 223% · ELA 198% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -4.7% | 0.0% | -37.9% | OSW 124% · JAKK 110% · ESCA 25% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -15.4% | -15.6% | -39.9% | MOD 1579% · GTX 309% · BWA 80% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -14.1% | -30.6% | -41.9% | MCRI 106% · RRR 36% · BYD 25% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | -9.3% | 10.1% | -43.3% | ANF 264% · URBN 131% · ROST 109% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | -7.1% | 8.5% | -43.9% | KEQU 157% · FLXS 145% · HBB 128% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -12.5% | 29.2% | -55.8% | BBY 7% · GME -56% · UPBD -63% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | -8.1% | 12.7% | -57.5% | DDS 310% · EBAY 65% · AMZN 47% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -79.1% | -52.6% | -73.2% | GM 67% · TSLA 44% · F 33% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -14.6% | -17.8% | -76.6% | AXIL 2695% · GRMN 81% · SONO -58% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -37.7% | -48.9% | -78.8% | TLF 114% · BBW 65% · WINA 55% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,686 |
| Op Inc LTM | 713 |
| FCF LTM | 670 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 626 |
| CFO LTM | 1,024 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,011 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.8 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.9 |
| P/EBIT | 16.2 |
| P/E | 29.6 |
| P/CFO | 21.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost reimbursement revenues | 7,085 | 6,428 | 5,827 | ||
| Management and franchise | 3,575 | 3,339 | 3,055 | 2,619 | 1,809 |
| Ownership | 1,233 | 1,255 | 1,244 | 1,076 | 598 |
| Other revenues | 252 | 232 | 178 | 102 | 79 |
| Intersegment fees elimination | -49 | -30 | -26 | -23 | -10 |
| Amortization of contract acquisition costs | -57 | -50 | -43 | -38 | -32 |
| Other revenues from managed and franchised properties | 5,037 | 3,344 | |||
| Total | 12,039 | 11,174 | 10,235 | 8,773 | 5,788 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Management and franchise | 3,055 | 2,619 | 1,809 | 1,138 | 2,315 |
| Ownership | 77 | 54 | -91 | -202 | 125 |
| Other revenues, less other expenses | 66 | 42 | 34 | 13 | 29 |
| Gain\Loss on sale of assets, net | 0 | -7 | 81 | ||
| Impairment losses | -38 | 0 | -258 | ||
| Amortization of contract acquisition costs | -43 | -38 | -32 | -29 | -29 |
| Depreciation and amortization expenses | -147 | -162 | -188 | -331 | -346 |
| Net other expenses from managed and franchised properties | -337 | -39 | -110 | -397 | -77 |
| General and administrative expenses | -408 | -382 | -405 | -311 | -441 |
| Reorganization costs | -41 | ||||
| Total | 2,225 | 2,094 | 1,010 | -418 | 1,657 |
| $ Mil | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Management and franchise | 11,404 | 11,065 | 11,455 | 11,362 | 11,454 |
| Corporate and other | 2,976 | 4,448 | 1,892 | 1,706 | 1,890 |
| Ownership | 1,061 | 1,242 | 1,610 | 927 | 964 |
| Total | 15,441 | 16,755 | 14,957 | 13,995 | 14,308 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $305.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 69.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $319.58 | $313.92 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.3% | -2.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 22.5% | 23.5% |
| Downside Capture | 74.34 | 41.09 |
| Upside Capture | -3.25 | 50.06 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.6% | 33.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.66 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.69 | 0.61 | 0.88 |
| Up Beta | -1.62 | -1.06 | -0.51 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.15 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | -33% | 9% | 22% | 49% | 42% | 81% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 31 | 62 | 122 | 404 |
| Down Capture | -25% | 62% | 45% | 72% | 54% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 33 | 65 | 129 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | 15.0% | 23.4% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -7.6% | 19.5% | -0.53 | 40.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 32.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.9% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -32.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.5% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 9.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | 19.5% | 26.9% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.8% | 24.1% | 0.16 | 64.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 63.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 47.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.5% | 0.39 | 26.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | 20.8% | 28.7% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.8% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 62.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 61.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 17.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 49.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 14.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | -2.5% | -5.0% | -0.4% |
| 4/28/2026 | -2.7% | -6.3% | 1.3% |
| 2/11/2026 | 0.4% | -2.4% | -9.1% |
| 10/22/2025 | 3.4% | -1.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | -2.6% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.9% | 6.1% | -4.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -1.9% | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.4% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 15.0% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -14.2% | -10.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | -2.5% | -5.0% | -0.4% |
| 4/28/2026 | -2.7% | -6.3% | 1.3% |
| 2/11/2026 | 0.4% | -2.4% | -9.1% |
| 10/22/2025 | 3.4% | -1.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | -2.6% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.9% | 6.1% | -4.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -1.9% | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.7% | -0.9% | 4.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | 3.9% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.4% |
| 10/25/2023 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 14.4% |
| 7/26/2023 | -0.6% | 2.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/26/2023 | -3.4% | -0.3% | -6.4% |
| 2/9/2023 | 2.4% | 3.7% | -4.5% |
| 10/26/2022 | -0.5% | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| 5/3/2022 | -4.2% | -14.2% | -10.8% |
| 2/16/2022 | -1.1% | -9.3% | -4.3% |
| 10/27/2021 | 1.9% | -2.2% | 0.6% |
| 7/29/2021 | 3.8% | -4.0% | -3.0% |
| 5/5/2021 | -4.4% | -5.0% | -4.0% |
| 2/17/2021 | -1.9% | 7.3% | 11.9% |
| 11/4/2020 | 2.7% | 15.0% | 20.4% |
| 8/6/2020 | 3.4% | 7.4% | 14.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.4% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 15.0% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -14.2% | -10.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/11/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/29/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.5% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.03 Bil | 1.04 Bil | 1.05 Bil | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.02 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Net Income | Reported | 502.00 Mil | 509.00 Mil | 516.00 Mil | 2.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 498.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 EPS | Reported | 2.2 | 2.23 | 2.26 | ||||
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 3.50 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 3.25% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 4.04 Bil | 4.06 Bil | 4.08 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.04 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.88 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 1.91 Bil | -1.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.92 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 8.22 | 8.29 | 8.35 | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growth | Reported | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | ||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.01 Bil | 1.02 Bil | 1.03 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Net Income | Reported | 491.00 Mil | 498.00 Mil | 505.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growth | Reported | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Return | Reported | 3.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net unit growth | Reported | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 4.02 Bil | 4.04 Bil | 4.06 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.02 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.91 Bil | 1.92 Bil | 1.94 Bil | -3.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 300.00 Mil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growth | Reported | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 1.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 875.00 Mil | 885.00 Mil | 895.00 Mil | -3.9% | Lower New | Actual: 921.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Net Income | Reported | 436.00 Mil | 443.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | -1.9% | Lower New | Actual: 451.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.87 | 1.9 | 1.93 | -0.8% | Lower New | Actual: 1.92 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growth | Reported | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 0.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Return | Reported | 3.50 Bil | 6.1% | Higher New | Actual: 3.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Net Unit Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | -0.2% | Lower New | Actual: 6.75% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 4.00 Bil | 4.02 Bil | 4.04 Bil | 8.6% | Higher New | Actual: 3.70 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.98 Bil | 2.00 Bil | 2.01 Bil | 23.7% | Higher New | Actual: 1.61 Bil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 RevPAR Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: -0.5% for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 906.00 Mil | 921.00 Mil | 936.00 Mil | -2.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 945.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Net Income | Reported | 441.00 Mil | 451.50 Mil | 462.00 Mil | -1.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 460.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.87 | 1.92 | 1.96 | -0.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.92 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Diluted EPS Adjusted | Reported | 1.94 | 1.99 | 2.03 | ||||
| 2025 RevPAR Growth | Reported | 0.0% | 0.5% | -50.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Return | Reported | 3.30 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 410.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Net Unit Growth | Reported | 6.5% | 6.75% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 6.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 3.69 Bil | 3.70 Bil | 3.71 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.68 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income | Reported | 1.60 Bil | 1.61 Bil | 1.62 Bil | -2.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.66 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Diluted EPS | Reported | 6.71 | 6.75 | 6.8 | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.91 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Diluted EPS Adjusted | Reported | 7.97 | 8.02 | 8.06 | ||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fuentes, Laura | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 309.81 | 7,289 | 2,258,218 | 10,365,681 | Form |
| 2 | Carr, Chris | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 310.34 | 439 | 136,239 | 2,560,861 | Form | |
| 3 | Nassetta, Christopher J | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 317.47 | 114,289 | 36,283,559 | 11,570,268 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fuentes, Laura | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 309.81 | 7,289 | 2,258,218 | 10,365,681 | Form |
| 2 | Carr, Chris | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 310.34 | 439 | 136,239 | 2,560,861 | Form | |
| 3 | Nassetta, Christopher J | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 317.47 | 114,289 | 36,283,559 | 11,570,268 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray Foundation | $222.5 Mil | 56.1% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $92.1 Mil | 12.1% | 10 | ADD +35.5% | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $75.6 Mil | 10.3% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $324.4 Mil | 10.2% | 14 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $80.2 Mil | 7.7% | 16 | TRIM -22.1% | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $37.4 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | ADD +11.9% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $19.5 Mil | 3.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $127.7 Mil | 2.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $98.1 Mil | 2.0% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $15.4 Mil | 1.8% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $5.8 Mil | 1.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $224.0 Mil | 1.6% | 44 | TRIM -7.1% | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Hazelview Securities Inc. | $5.9 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | TRIM -55.7% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $27.1 Mil | 0.2% | 36 | ADD +54.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $75.6 Mil | 10.3% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $27.1 Mil | 0.2% | 36 | ADD +54.4% | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $92.1 Mil | 12.1% | 10 | ADD +35.5% | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $37.4 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | ADD +11.9% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $870.0 Mil | 5.6% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $293.3 Mil | 9.9% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SurgoCap Partners LP | $144.7 Mil | 4.0% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $86.2 Mil | 4.2% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hazelview Securities Inc. | $5.9 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | TRIM -55.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $80.2 Mil | 7.7% | 16 | TRIM -22.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $324.4 Mil | 10.2% | 14 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $224.0 Mil | 1.6% | 44 | TRIM -7.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $324.4 Mil | 10.2% | 14 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $224.0 Mil | 1.6% | 44 | TRIM -7.1% | 13F |
| Gray Foundation | $222.5 Mil | 56.1% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $127.7 Mil | 2.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $98.1 Mil | 2.0% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $92.1 Mil | 12.1% | 10 | ADD +35.5% | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $80.2 Mil | 7.7% | 16 | TRIM -22.1% | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $75.6 Mil | 10.3% | 24 | New | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $37.4 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | ADD +11.9% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $27.1 Mil | 0.2% | 36 | ADD +54.4% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $19.5 Mil | 3.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $15.4 Mil | 1.8% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Hazelview Securities Inc. | $5.9 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | TRIM -55.7% | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $5.8 Mil | 1.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
HLT Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on a best-in-class growth algorithm. While near-term revenue headwinds and rising debt are notable, the underlying expansion of the high-margin, fee-based network appears intact and is currently under-appreciated.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise & Royalty / Service Provider(Number of System-wide Rooms * RevPAR) + Licensing & Other Fees Mix shift towards the capital-light, high-margin Management and Franchise segment, which requires minimal incremental capital to grow.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Hilton's capital-light model is compounding rooms at a best-in-class rate, supported by a record development pipeline.
- Net Unit Growth was 6.1% for the year ended June 30, 2026.
- The development pipeline reached a record 541,300 rooms.
- U.S. new development construction starts increased over 40% YoY in Q2 2026.
- The Hilton Honors loyalty program grew to 260 million members.
PRIMARY RISK
The company is funding a massive shareholder return program with debt, increasing financial risk ahead of a potential cyclical slowdown.
- Net debt increased to $13 billion from $11.3 billion year-over-year.
- Full-year RevPAR in the Middle East is expected to decline by double-digits.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| System-wide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) Growth | 3.9% year-over-year growth for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth rate has accelerated for two consecutive quarters. Management attributed the latest quarter's strength to underlying demand recovery in the U.S. for business transient and group travel, in addition to a strong World Cup. |
| Net Unit Growth (NUG) | 6.1% year-over-year for the twelve months ended Q2 2026 - Stable | While the growth rate has slightly moderated, it remains robust and within management's full-year target range of 6% to 7%. The development pipeline reached a record 541,000 rooms, supporting future growth visibility. |
| Development Pipeline (Rooms) | 541,300 (As of 6/30/2026) | Indicates future net unit growth, as it represents hotels expected to be added to the system. Almost half of the pipeline is under construction. |
| Hilton Honors Members | 260 million (As of 6/30/2026) | The size and growth of the loyalty program, which generates significant repeat business and encourages members to allocate more travel spend to Hilton properties. |
Pipeline Growth vs. Guidance Fears
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the record 541,300-room pipeline and 6.1% unit growth, seeing a durable expansion story that will power earnings for years, regardless of quarterly RevPAR fluctuations.
CORE TENSION
Can the structural tailwind from a record pipeline offset the cyclical headwind from geopolitical conflict, which is expected to cause a double-digit RevPAR decline in the Middle East?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. System-wide RevPAR growth accelerated to 3.9% in Q2, and management raised its full-year 2026 RevPAR guidance, suggesting underlying strength outside of specific challenged regions.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see soft Q3 guidance and two negative earnings reactions as proof that cyclical headwinds are intensifying, making the company's high leverage and debt-funded buybacks increasingly risky.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/20/2026 | Slowing Revenue Momentum Watch: Q3 revenue growth rate versus the 6.5% reported for Q2 and management's Q3 guidance. |
10/20/2026 | Middle East Conflict Drag Watch: Updated MEA RevPAR results for Q3 and any change to the full-year regional outlook. |
10/20/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: Hilton Worldwide is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 20, 2026. |
11/3/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Choice Hotels International (CHH) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer RevPAR Outperformance Watch: Hyatt's Q3 RevPAR growth rate relative to Hilton's reported Q3 figure. |
November 15, 2026 | Senior Notes Interest Payment Watch: The first semi-annual interest payment is due for the 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-02 | Management Highlights Asia Growth Details: In early September, press reports highlighted management commentary calling one Asian country the 'most exciting market for travel and tourism globally' for the next decade. | +0.8% $311.99 -> $314.35 |
2026-07-28 | Q2 Earnings and Guidance Update Details: Hilton reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.29, exceeding expectations, and raised its full-year guidance for revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS. The stock's two-day reaction was -3.0%. | -2.8% $330.70 -> $321.57 |
2026-05-07 | Senior Notes Offering Priced Details: The company's subsidiary finalized terms for an offering of $1 billion in aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031. | -1.5% $321.21 -> $316.49 |
2026-04-28 | Q1 Earnings and Outlook Details: Hilton reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.01 and raised its full-year outlook. Despite the positive report, the stock had a two-day negative reaction of -5.0%. | -5.4% $332.14 -> $314.21 |
2026-03-10 | Hilton AI Planner Launched Details: The company introduced a new generative AI-powered digital concierge to help travelers plan stays. The tool was in beta testing as of the announcement. | -2.2% $303.18 -> $296.58 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: HLT trades at roughly 26% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market), around the 65th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MAR - Marriott International
Global Scale LeaderMarriott offers superior global scale, with revenue 2.2 times that of Hilton. This larger network is a key advantage for attracting large corporate travel accounts.
WH - Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
Focused Value PlayHilton is a capital-light brand licensor and service provider whose primary asset is its network effect, not its physical real estate.
The company's value is driven by the growth of its high-margin, fee-based Management and Franchise segment. By licensing its powerful brands and leveraging its 260 million-member loyalty program, Hilton adds new hotel rooms to its system with minimal capital investment. This creates a virtuous cycle, or 'flywheel,' where more hotels enhance the loyalty program's value, which in turn drives more guests to the hotels, increasing owner profitability and attracting more developers to Hilton's brands.
Sustained net unit growth at or above the 6-7% target, continued RevPAR premiums versus the industry, and strong growth in the development pipeline.
A significant slowdown in new hotel signings or construction starts, erosion of RevPAR premiums, or a material decline in Hilton Honors member engagement.
Short-term fluctuations in the small Ownership segment's performance due to renovations or specific market events.
Repricing Catalyst
Management's expectation for continued strong RevPAR growth driven by macro tailwinds in the U.S., including increased private sector investment in AI, public infrastructure spending, and historically low levels of new hotel supply.
Management and franchise
$3.7B TTM (30% of Total)What It Is
This segment provides hotel management services to third-party hotel owners and licenses its brands and operating systems to franchisees. It also earns licensing fees from strategic partners like co-branded credit card providers.
Who Pays & How
Third-party hotel owners and developers pay fees to affiliate with Hilton's brands, gaining access to its global reservation system, marketing programs, and the Hilton Honors loyalty program, which drives repeat business and enhances property performance.
Competition
Ownership
$1.2B TTM (10% of Total)What It Is
This segment includes hotels that Hilton owns or leases, deriving revenue primarily from the sale of hotel rooms, food and beverage, and other services directly to guests.
Who Pays & How
Hotel guests (business and leisure travelers) pay for lodging and other services. They choose Hilton's owned properties for their location, brand reputation, service quality, and ability to earn/redeem Hilton Honors points.
Competition
Hilton Worldwide — Investor Video Playlist






Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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