First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)


Market Price (9/18/2026): $10.29 | Market Cap: $634.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)


Market Price (9/18/2026): $10.29
Market Cap: $634.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 169%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%

Key risks
FWRG key risks include [1] profit margin compression from inflation in key commodities such as eggs and labor and [2] potential underperformance of its capital-intensive, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 169%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%
6 Key risks
FWRG key risks include [1] profit margin compression from inflation in key commodities such as eggs and labor and [2] potential underperformance of its capital-intensive, Show more.

FWRG in ETFs

Weight = FWRG's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.02%
IWN0.05%
VTWO0.03%
DFAS0.01%
SCHA0.01%
DFAC0.00%
+2 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/16/2026

First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) stock has lost about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) reported an earnings per share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 28, 2026. The company announced an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.04, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.05 by $0.01. Although total revenues for the quarter were $354.7 million, exceeding expectations, the earnings miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

2. Analysts lowered their price targets for FWRG in early August 2026. For instance, Guggenheim reduced its price target from $21.00 to $20.00 on August 7, 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Similarly, Citi adjusted its price target from $21.00 to $20.00 on August 5, 2026, also retaining a "Buy" rating. These downward revisions, despite continued positive ratings, signaled caution to investors.

Show more
Updated on 9/16/2026

First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) stock has lost about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) reported an earnings per share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 28, 2026. The company announced an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.04, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.05 by $0.01. Although total revenues for the quarter were $354.7 million, exceeding expectations, the earnings miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.

2. Analysts lowered their price targets for FWRG in early August 2026. For instance, Guggenheim reduced its price target from $21.00 to $20.00 on August 7, 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Similarly, Citi adjusted its price target from $21.00 to $20.00 on August 5, 2026, also retaining a "Buy" rating. These downward revisions, despite continued positive ratings, signaled caution to investors.

3. First Watch experienced negative same-restaurant traffic growth in fiscal Q2 2026. While same-restaurant sales increased by 3.4% for the thirteen weeks ended June 28, 2026, overall same-restaurant traffic for the quarter declined by 0.4%. This suggests that sales growth was primarily driven by menu pricing adjustments rather than an increase in the number of customer visits, which can be a point of concern for sustained growth.

4. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and increased consumer price sensitivity impacted the restaurant industry. During fiscal Q2 2026, the restaurant sector faced a challenging environment characterized by rising consumer caution and a pull-back in spending. A National Restaurant Association survey indicated that 36% of consumers reported spending less at restaurants compared to the previous quarter, with value becoming a key factor in dining decisions. These industry-wide pressures likely weighed on First Watch's performance and investor outlook.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.1% change in FWRG stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269172026Change
Stock Price ($)11.6310.11-13.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2711,3183.7%
Net Income Margin (%)1.4%1.4%-2.3%
P/E Multiple40.535.0-13.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6162-0.7%
Cumulative Contribution-13.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FWRG-13.1% 
Market (SPY)0.8%9.0%
Sector (XLY)-7.8%27.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -18.9% change in FWRG stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820269172026Change
Stock Price ($)12.4610.11-18.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2231,3187.8%
Net Income Margin (%)1.6%1.4%-15.0%
P/E Multiple39.135.0-10.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6162-1.0%
Cumulative Contribution-18.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FWRG-18.9% 
Market (SPY)11.5%24.4%
Sector (XLY)-4.5%38.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -46.4% change in FWRG stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -87.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120259172026Change
Stock Price ($)18.8410.11-46.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,1051,31819.3%
Net Income Margin (%)0.4%1.4%265.2%
P/E Multiple281.235.0-87.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6162-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution-46.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FWRG-46.4% 
Market (SPY)19.2%22.5%
Sector (XLY)-3.3%30.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -47.1% change in FWRG stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239172026Change
Stock Price ($)19.1210.11-47.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8001,31864.7%
Net Income Margin (%)2.1%1.4%-35.9%
P/E Multiple67.335.0-48.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5962-3.7%
Cumulative Contribution-47.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/17/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FWRG-47.1% 
Market (SPY)75.3%34.4%
Sector (XLY)33.5%39.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
FWRG Return-24%-19%49%-7%-19%-31%-53%
Peers Return41%1%1%10%-6%4%54%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FWRG Win Rate0%33%67%50%67%33% 
Peers Win Rate56%48%46%46%46%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FWRG Max Drawdown--32%-19%-48%-33%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-33%-30%-27%-33%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, JMKE, MCD, SBUX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/17/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventFWRGS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-11.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven46 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-32.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven147 days427 days

Compare to BH, RICK, JMKE, MCD, SBUX

In The Past

First Watch Restaurant's stock fell -6.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventFWRGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-32.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven147 days427 days

Compare to BH, RICK, JMKE, MCD, SBUX

In The Past

First Watch Restaurant's stock fell -6.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)

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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) operates and franchises a chain of popular daytime restaurants under the "First Watch" brand name across the United States. The company's business model involves both directly managing company-owned locations and expanding its footprint through a network of franchised establishments. Founded in 1983, First Watch has grown to hundreds of restaurants across 28 states, establishing itself as a significant player in the casual dining sector.

The company's main products and services center around a diverse menu of freshly prepared breakfast, brunch, and lunch items. Offerings typically include signature omelets, pancakes, salads, sandwiches, and various health-conscious options. First Watch primarily serves individuals and families seeking a high-quality, made-to-order dining experience in a comfortable and welcoming atmosphere, making it a go-to destination for morning and midday meals.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a couple of analogies for First Watch Restaurant (FWRG):

  • Imagine a full-service Panera Bread, but primarily focused on breakfast, brunch, and lunch.

  • Think of it as a more contemporary IHOP or Denny's, exclusively serving breakfast, brunch, and lunch.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Restaurant Services: Provides dine-in and takeout breakfast, brunch, and lunch meals to customers through company-owned and franchised First Watch restaurant locations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other businesses. The company operates and franchises restaurants, serving meals directly to the public.

The up to three categories of customers that First Watch Restaurant serves include:

  1. Families and Social Groups: Customers dining together for breakfast, brunch, or lunch, often seeking a casual and fresh dining experience, particularly popular on weekends.
  2. Morning Commuters and Breakfast Eaters: Individuals or small groups looking for a quality breakfast before work, during a workday, or as a relaxed start to their day.
  3. Lunch Diners (Business and Leisure): Customers seeking lunch, whether for a business meeting, a casual break from work, or a leisurely meal during the midday hours.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Chris Tomasso CEO & President

Chris Tomasso joined First Watch in 2006 as Chief Marketing Officer, becoming President in December 2015, and Chief Executive Officer in June 2018. He previously led strategic branding and marketing for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store and Hard Rock Café International. Chris led First Watch's initial public offering (IPO) in 2021.

Mel Hope Chief Financial Officer

Mel Hope joined First Watch in 2018 and has served as CFO for nearly eight years, guiding the company through its IPO process. Prior to First Watch, he was the CFO of Popeyes' Louisiana Kitchen and a partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC. He also held executive roles at several privately-owned organizations and startup ventures. Mel Hope plans to retire later this year but will remain CFO until his successor is in place.

Dan Jones Chief Operations Officer

Dan Jones joined First Watch as Chief Operations Officer in October 2021. Before joining First Watch, he served as Chief Operating Officer of CAVA since 2016. Dan also spent 14 years at Starbucks, eventually serving as Director of Operations for New York City.

Matt Eisenacher Chief Brand Officer

Matt Eisenacher joined First Watch in 2019 as Senior Vice President of Brand Strategy and Innovation and was promoted to Chief Brand Officer in 2023. Prior to First Watch, he served as Chief Operations Officer for Piada Italian Street Food and held various brand leadership positions at The Piada Group. He began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Jay Wolszczak Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel

Jay Wolszczak has served as General Counsel and Secretary of First Watch Restaurant Group since December 2019, and as chief legal officer, general counsel, and secretary of its subsidiary, First Watch Restaurants, Inc., since May 2018. Previously, Jay was General Counsel and Senior Vice President of Business Affairs for Hard Rock International, Inc. He also worked as an associate with Akerman Senterfitt and Holland & Knight.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to First Watch Restaurant's business are:
  1. Cost Inflation (Commodity and Labor): First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. faces significant pressure from commodity and labor inflation, which directly impacts its operating margins. The company has projected commodity cost inflation of approximately 6% for 2025, affecting core menu items such as eggs, bacon, and coffee beans, alongside a 4% labor inflation. This poses a substantial risk, as the company operates with a razor-thin net profitability, making it highly sensitive to rising costs.
  2. Execution Risk of Aggressive Expansion and Resulting Financial Strain: The company is pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy, with plans to open a significant number of new units annually (e.g., 63 to 64 new units in 2025). This rapid growth strategy carries inherent execution risks related to securing prime real estate, managing construction costs, and maintaining a quality workforce amidst labor inflation. This capital-intensive expansion contributes to low net profitability, high leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.59), and negative free cash flow, necessitating additional debt issuance and increasing interest expenses.
  3. Sensitivity to Economic Downturns and Competitive Pressures: Dining out at First Watch is considered a discretionary expense, making the company vulnerable to economic fluctuations and changes in consumer spending patterns. Economic downturns could lead to reduced customer traffic and lower same-store sales growth, as observed with recent negative traffic trends. Additionally, the restaurant industry is highly competitive, and First Watch must continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain its market position and attract customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) operates within the U.S. daytime dining market, primarily offering breakfast, brunch, and lunch.

The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be 2,200 locations across the United States.

More broadly, the market sizes for relevant segments in the United States are:

  • The U.S. breakfast restaurant market was valued at approximately $15.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $15.6 billion in 2025.
  • The U.S. full-service restaurants market is predicted to be US$371.9 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to US$715.8 billion by 2032.
  • The fast-casual restaurants market in the U.S. is valued at $191 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $230 billion by 2030. Another report estimates the U.S. fast casual restaurants market size to increase by USD 84.5 billion, at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2024 to 2029, and reach a value of USD 115.5 billion by 2026.
  • The North American casual dining market is projected to increase from USD 70.12 billion in 2023 to USD 112.02 billion by 2033.

AI Analysis | Feedback

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. New Restaurant Openings and Unit Expansion: First Watch consistently emphasizes its robust pipeline and plans for opening new restaurants. The company expects low double-digit percentage unit growth annually and anticipates opening 59-63 new system-wide restaurants in 2026. New unit sales performance has consistently surpassed internal targets, with the 2025 class of new restaurants performing approximately 19% above underwriting targets. The company plans to expand in both new and core markets, including regions like the Sun Belt and Mid-Atlantic.
  2. Same-Restaurant Sales Growth: While facing some traffic challenges, First Watch aims for continued growth in same-restaurant sales, with a long-term target of around 3.5% and guidance of 1%-3% for 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by factors such as menu price increases, positive sales mix, and an ongoing focus on enhancing the overall guest experience. The company maintains a conservative pricing philosophy, primarily to cover permanent inflation and maintain value for customers.
  3. Strategic Acquisitions of Franchise-Owned Locations: Acquisitions play a role in First Watch's growth strategy by converting franchise-owned locations into company-owned restaurants. In 2023, the company converted 23 franchise restaurants to company-owned, which contributed to total revenue growth. Strategic acquisitions of franchise locations are projected to have a notable impact on total revenue growth.
  4. Menu Innovation and Expanded Digital Marketing Initiatives: First Watch is focusing on enhancing its menu and leveraging digital platforms to attract and retain customers. The company rolled out a new core menu in early 2026, marking its first significant redesign in almost a decade, and regularly introduces seasonal menus. Furthermore, First Watch is expanding its digital marketing initiatives to a wider base of restaurants in 2026, leveraging consumer and third-party data for more targeted campaigns, which has already shown positive returns.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Share Repurchases

  • No information is available regarding specific dollar amounts of share repurchases made by First Watch Restaurant Group within the last 3-5 years. The company's outstanding shares have generally shown a slight increase over this period.

Share Issuance

  • Between 2024 and 2025, several secondary offerings of First Watch Restaurant Group's common stock were conducted by selling stockholders, primarily funds managed by Advent International. The company did not sell any shares in these offerings and did not receive any proceeds.
  • In November 2024, 8,000,000 shares were offered to the public at a price of $19.95 per share by selling stockholders.
  • Another secondary offering by selling stockholders in August 2025 involved 5,000,000 shares of common stock.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2024, First Watch Restaurant Group agreed to acquire 16 franchise restaurants for $49 million.
  • In April 2025, the company acquired three franchise-owned restaurants in Missouri, along with the development rights for the area.
  • During Q2 CY2025, First Watch successfully acquired and integrated 19 franchise restaurants as part of its expansion strategy.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were approximately $156.91 million.
  • The company projects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $150 million to $160 million.
  • These capital expenditures are primarily focused on new restaurant projects and planned remodels, with an average net build-out cost of approximately $1.8 million per new restaurant.
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Better Bets vs. First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)

Peer Outperformance in Restaurants

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Share of Restaurants constituents that FWRG has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
20%
of 44 industry peers · -38.9% return
3Y
32%
of 41 industry peers · -45.2% return
5Y
insufficient peer history
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Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is FWRG's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -16.7%81.0%70.1% LINC 299% · PRDO 230% · CVSA 219%
Homebuilding 18 -11.3%26.2%46.7% GRBK 189% · PHM 156% · MHO 125%
Specialty Stores 7 7.9%38.2%4.6% SIG 33% · FIVE 23% · ASO 18%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -26.0%-5.3%2.3% HVT 13% · LOW 2% · HD 2%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 12.0%42.6%2.2% RCL 208% · MAR 142% · HLT 134%
Automotive Retail 18 -19.7%-2.4%-0.6% MUSA 222% · PAG 151% · ORLY 112%
Distributors 4 -11.3%-25.1%-11.1% ARMK 159% · GPC 24% · LKQ -46%
Home Furnishings 4 -6.1%20.2%-14.7% SGI 44% · LZB 0% · MHK -29%
Restaurants ← 35 -15.5%-18.5%-18.5% EAT 298% · CAKE 139% · BH-A 131%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -16.1%21.0%-20.3% HRB 111% · FTDR 75% · SCI 39%
Footwear 9 49.6%42.3%-20.7% WEYS 162% · SHOO 18% · DECK 10%
Leisure Products 13 -25.9%-21.7%-35.1% GOLF 72% · HAS 11% · MCFT -21%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 -10.3%4.4%-37.5% ELA 227% · TPR 226% · RL 226%
Leisure Facilities 11 -1.6%-2.0%-38.7% OSW 124% · JAKK 112% · ESCA 26%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -14.7%-13.8%-39.1% MOD 1545% · GTX 309% · BWA 81%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -9.8%-28.1%-41.1% MCRI 108% · RRR 41% · RSI 31%
Apparel Retail 25 -8.7%12.3%-41.6% ANF 272% · URBN 133% · ROST 111%
Household Appliances 18 -5.9%4.8%-43.1% KEQU 173% · FLXS 144% · HBB 124%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -12.8%29.7%-55.6% BBY 9% · GME -56% · UPBD -62%
Broadline Retail 15 -18.7%14.6%-57.1% DDS 308% · EBAY 66% · AMZN 45%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -77.2%-50.6%-72.9% GM 76% · TSLA 45% · F 37%
Consumer Electronics 11 -12.1%-16.4%-76.6% AXIL 2673% · GRMN 82% · SONO -57%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -34.3%-50.5%-78.5% TLF 111% · BBW 71% · WINA 60%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FWRGBHRICKJMKEMCDSBUXMedian
NameFirst Wa.Biglari RCI Hosp.Jersey M.McDonald.Starbucks 
Mkt Price10.11352.9328.4820.13248.4896.6762.58
Mkt Cap0.61.10.2-176.2110.21.1
Rev LTM1,318406284-27,70238,3381,318
Op Inc LTM312439-12,6623,87339
FCF LTM-225035-7,7613,64250
FCF 3Y Avg-224931-7,2513,24149
CFO LTM1288443-11,3444,986128
CFO 3Y Avg1147849-10,2455,464114

Growth & Margins

FWRGBHRICKJMKEMCDSBUXMedian
NameFirst Wa.Biglari RCI Hosp.Jersey M.McDonald.Starbucks 
Rev Chg LTM19.3%7.5%1.0%-6.3%4.5%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.1%2.8%-0.6%-4.6%3.1%3.1%
Rev Chg Q15.2%7.9%3.9%-3.8%-1.4%3.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.7%2.0%1.0%-0.9%-0.3%1.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM41.3%21.7%-16.6%-5.3%1.0%5.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg6.4%-16.7%-17.2%-4.5%-6.9%-6.9%
Op Mgn LTM2.4%5.9%13.7%-45.7%10.1%10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%6.3%16.5%-45.8%11.9%11.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.4%0.6%--0.3%0.8%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM9.7%20.8%15.0%-41.0%13.0%15.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.2%20.3%16.9%-38.6%14.7%16.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.7%12.4%12.2%-28.0%9.5%12.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.0%12.7%10.7%-27.3%8.7%10.7%

Valuation

FWRGBHRICKJMKEMCDSBUXMedian
NameFirst Wa.Biglari RCI Hosp.Jersey M.McDonald.Starbucks 
Mkt Cap0.61.10.2-176.2110.21.1
P/S0.52.70.8-6.42.92.7
P/Op Inc20.146.35.6-13.928.420.1
P/EBIT21.5-70.912.2-13.830.313.8
P/E35.0-37.2-51.8-20.155.620.1
P/CFO4.913.15.1-15.522.113.1
Total Yield2.9%-2.7%-0.8%-8.0%4.4%2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.1%-3.0%2.6%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.4%10.8%10.9%-3.7%3.2%3.7%
D/E1.70.31.2-0.30.20.3
Net D/E1.70.01.1-0.30.20.3

Returns

FWRGBHRICKJMKEMCDSBUXMedian
NameFirst Wa.Biglari RCI Hosp.Jersey M.McDonald.Starbucks 
1M Rtn-15.9%-7.9%-7.7%-7.3%-6.3%-8.8%-7.8%
3M Rtn-14.4%6.1%1.0%-6.9%-10.2%-3.4%-5.2%
6M Rtn-18.4%13.1%31.0%-6.9%-18.6%2.1%-2.4%
12M Rtn-38.9%14.1%11.7%-6.9%-16.4%19.1%2.4%
3Y Rtn-45.2%108.7%-54.0%-6.9%-3.8%7.7%-5.4%
1M Excs Rtn-15.2%-7.2%-7.0%-6.6%-5.6%-8.1%-7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-14.9%2.3%0.9%-9.9%-14.8%-5.5%-7.7%
6M Excs Rtn-33.3%2.4%22.3%-22.2%-35.5%-9.8%-16.0%
12M Excs Rtn-54.9%-1.7%-15.5%-22.5%-31.6%1.9%-19.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-116.7%25.7%-125.3%-78.1%-76.0%-62.9%-77.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single Segment1,2231,016892730
Total1,2231,016892730


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Single Segment191925
Total191925


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$10.11 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.6 
First Trading Date10/01/2021 
Distance from 52W High-45.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$12.26$13.29
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA-17.6%-24.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility48.9%53.9%
Downside Capture167.33127.64
Upside Capture66.1347.38
Correlation (SPY)16.0%23.0%
FWRG Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.700.400.290.930.941.11
Up Beta-1.29-1.390.270.941.581.41
Down Beta-1.53-1.33-0.400.180.600.98
Up Capture157%120%73%105%38%51%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days10193056112357
Down Capture289%193%39%124%113%104%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days11233470137387

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FWRG
FWRG-39.4%53.8%-0.74-
Sector ETF (XLY)-7.5%19.5%-0.5231.1%
Equity (SPY)16.6%12.9%0.9222.6%
Gold (GLD)17.4%29.3%0.5510.8%
Commodities (DBC)45.8%20.7%1.72-15.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%13.5%0.1625.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-34.9%43.9%-0.8512.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FWRG
FWRG-14.4%47.9%-0.17-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.7%24.1%0.1644.2%
Equity (SPY)12.6%17.2%0.5640.6%
Gold (GLD)18.9%18.8%0.815.9%
Commodities (DBC)11.7%19.6%0.471.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.0%18.8%-0.0533.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.4%52.5%0.3819.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FWRG
FWRG-7.5%47.9%-0.17-
Sector ETF (XLY)11.8%22.2%0.4844.2%
Equity (SPY)15.1%18.0%0.7140.6%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.4%0.605.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%18.1%0.391.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%20.7%0.1733.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.0%66.1%1.0219.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 8152026-4.8%
Average Daily Volume0.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity61.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/4/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20262.4%-3.8%-3.4%
5/5/2026-0.2%-4.3%-13.8%
2/24/2026-20.5%-19.6%-26.1%
11/4/202511.0%11.5%14.1%
8/5/20253.5%3.0%6.6%
5/6/2025-17.6%-10.0%-16.4%
3/11/2025-7.0%-10.3%-15.7%
1/13/2025-2.0%-7.0%7.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121212
# Negative111111
Median Positive5.1%4.9%7.7%
Median Negative-4.8%-7.0%-13.8%
Max Positive14.1%19.5%31.5%
Max Negative-20.5%-21.7%-26.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/20262.4%-3.8%-3.4%
5/5/2026-0.2%-4.3%-13.8%
2/24/2026-20.5%-19.6%-26.1%
11/4/202511.0%11.5%14.1%
8/5/20253.5%3.0%6.6%
5/6/2025-17.6%-10.0%-16.4%
3/11/2025-7.0%-10.3%-15.7%
1/13/2025-2.0%-7.0%7.1%
11/7/202414.1%6.4%5.9%
8/6/202411.1%13.6%11.3%
5/7/2024-14.4%-21.7%-23.3%
3/5/2024-3.5%-3.2%-7.3%
1/8/20242.8%4.6%16.8%
11/1/20232.5%0.5%8.2%
8/1/20237.2%3.4%3.5%
5/2/20234.0%0.7%5.8%
3/7/2023-1.7%-7.3%-4.8%
1/9/20236.1%19.5%22.8%
11/7/2022-8.2%-3.9%-14.5%
8/9/2022-4.8%5.2%2.4%
5/10/202213.0%13.9%31.5%
1/10/20222.5%1.5%-1.2%
11/8/2021-1.0%-1.5%-0.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121212
# Negative111111
Median Positive5.1%4.9%7.7%
Median Negative-4.8%-7.0%-13.8%
Max Positive14.1%19.5%31.5%
Max Negative-20.5%-21.7%-26.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/24/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202403/11/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202303/05/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202203/07/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/24/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202403/11/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202303/05/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202203/07/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q
12/31/202103/23/202210-K
09/30/202111/08/202110-Q
06/30/202110/04/2021424B4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/5/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Same-Restaurant Sales GrowthReported1.5%2.25%3.0% 0.2%RaisedGuidance: 2.0% for 2026
2026 Total Revenue GrowthReported12.5%13.25%14.0% 0.2%RaisedGuidance: 13.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported133.00 Mil134.50 Mil136.00 Mil-1.5% LoweredGuidance: 136.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported145.00 Mil147.50 Mil150.00 Mil-4.8% LoweredGuidance: 155.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Net new system-wide restaurantsReported596163   
2026 Same-restaurant sales growthReported1.0%2.0%3.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 2.0% for 2026
2026 Total revenue growthReported12.0%13.0%14.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 13.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported133.00 Mil136.50 Mil140.00 Mil0.4% RaisedGuidance: 136.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital expendituresReported150.00 Mil155.00 Mil160.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 155.00 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Same-restaurant sales growthReported1.0%2.0%3.0% -2.0%Lower NewActual: 4.0% for 2025
2026 Total revenue growthReported12.0%13.0%14.0% -7.5%Lower NewActual: 20.5% for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported132.00 Mil136.00 Mil140.00 Mil10.6% Higher NewActual: 123.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Capital expendituresReported150.00 Mil155.00 Mil160.00 Mil3.3% Higher NewActual: 150.00 Mil for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Same-restaurant traffic growthReported 1.0%    
2025 New system-wide restaurantsReported6060.561-1.6% LoweredGuidance: 61.5 for 2025
2025 Same-restaurant sales growthReported 4.0%    
2025 Total revenue growthReported20.0%20.5%21.0%2.5%0.5%RaisedGuidance: 20.0% for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDAReported 123.00 Mil 1.7% RaisedGuidance: 121.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Blended tax rateReported 45.0%  7.5%RaisedGuidance: 37.5% for 2025
2025 Capital expendituresReported 150.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 150.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/10/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jones, John DanielChief Operations OfficerDirectSell319202612.521,69721,2461,060,757Form
2Hartman, Eric RichardChief Development OfficerDirectSell319202612.521,81922,7743,061,516Form
3Tomasso, Christopher AnthonyPresident and CEODirectSell319202612.5225,062313,77611,985,584Form
4Sorensen, Laura AnneChief People OfficerDirectSell319202612.521,69721,2462,971,660Form
5Hope, H Melville IiiCFO and TreasurerDirectSell319202612.523,87848,5531,399,573Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jones, John DanielChief Operations OfficerDirectSell319202612.521,69721,2461,060,757Form
2Hartman, Eric RichardChief Development OfficerDirectSell319202612.521,81922,7743,061,516Form
3Tomasso, Christopher AnthonyPresident and CEODirectSell319202612.5225,062313,77611,985,584Form
4Sorensen, Laura AnneChief People OfficerDirectSell319202612.521,69721,2462,971,660Form
5Hope, H Melville IiiCFO and TreasurerDirectSell319202612.523,87848,5531,399,573Form
6Wolszczak, Jay AnthonyChief Legal Officer, GC & SecyDirectSell319202612.523,16139,5762,866,204Form
7Eisenacher, MatthewChief Brand OfficerDirectSell319202612.522,76034,555841,632Form
8Tomasso, Christopher AnthonyPresident and CEODirectSell312202612.5933,314419,42313,271,686Form
9Hartman, Eric RichardChief Development OfficerDirectSell312202612.594,82060,6843,101,534Form
10Hope, H Melville IiiCFO and TreasurerDirectSell312202612.597,35892,6371,456,222Form
11Wolszczak, Jay AnthonyChief Legal Officer, GC & SecyDirectSell312202612.596,99888,1052,922,026Form
12Jones, John DanielChief Operations OfficerDirectSell312202612.594,60057,9141,088,053Form
13Eisenacher, MatthewChief Brand OfficerDirectSell312202612.596,07076,421881,086Form
14Sorensen, Laura AnneChief People OfficerDirectSell312202612.594,73259,5763,009,640Form
15Kussell, William A DirectSell126202617.006,165104,805448,834Form
16Kussell, William A DirectSell1211202517.006,165104,805448,834Form
17Advent, International, LP See footnotesSell910202517.674,400,00077,748,00093,470,483Form
18Tomasso, Christopher AnthonyPresident and CEODirectSell815202518.00100,0001,800,00013,795,776Form
19Advent, International, LP See footnotesSell812202517.705,000,00088,500,000171,509,177Form
20Advent, International, LP See footnotesSell605202514.704,500,00066,150,000215,939,825Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 18, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
BWCP, LP$14.2 Mil2.2%27New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
BWCP, LP$14.2 Mil2.2%27New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
12 West Capital Management LP$16.1 Mil1.9%18Exited13F
Deepwater Asset Management, LLC$8.7 Mil2.5%46Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
BWCP, LP$14.2 Mil2.2%27New13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/17/2026