First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $13.49 | Market Cap: $832.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $13.49Market Cap: $832.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 128% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% Key risksFWRG key risks include [1] profit margin compression from inflation in key commodities such as eggs and labor and [2] potential underperformance of its capital-intensive, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 128% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksFWRG key risks include [1] profit margin compression from inflation in key commodities such as eggs and labor and [2] potential underperformance of its capital-intensive, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Revenue Alignment.
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 for fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 27, 2026, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.04. Total revenues for the quarter increased 10.7% year-over-year to $349.9 million, aligning with Wall Street's expectations.
2. Upward Revision of Full-Year and Long-Term Financial Guidance.
Management demonstrated strong confidence in future performance by raising its fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to approximately $136.0 million, exceeding analyst forecasts of $133.5 million. Additionally, the company increased its long-term Adjusted EBITDA growth targets through fiscal year 2028 to greater than 15%, an increase from the prior range of 11% to 14%.
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First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Revenue Alignment.
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 for fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 27, 2026, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.04. Total revenues for the quarter increased 10.7% year-over-year to $349.9 million, aligning with Wall Street's expectations.
2. Upward Revision of Full-Year and Long-Term Financial Guidance.
Management demonstrated strong confidence in future performance by raising its fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to approximately $136.0 million, exceeding analyst forecasts of $133.5 million. Additionally, the company increased its long-term Adjusted EBITDA growth targets through fiscal year 2028 to greater than 15%, an increase from the prior range of 11% to 14%.
3. Strategic Restaurant Expansion and Resilient Sales Performance.
The company actively pursued growth by opening 16 new system-wide restaurants during fiscal Q3 2026. This expansion contributed to overall revenue growth and helped offset a 1.9% decline in same-restaurant traffic, a trend management attributed to planned sales transfers from new restaurant openings and broader industry challenges.
4. Sustained Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets.
Leading up to and following the Q3 2026 results, First Watch maintained a "Strong Buy" consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. The average price target for the stock stood at approximately $18.25, indicating a positive outlook from the investment community.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.1% change in FWRG stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.85 | 13.50 | 5.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,271 | 1,352 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.8 | 42.5 | -5.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 62 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FWRG | 5.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.4% | 24.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.9% change in FWRG stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.12 | 13.50 | 2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,223 | 1,352 | 10.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 1.5% | -8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.2 | 42.5 | 3.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 62 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FWRG | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.6% | 26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.1% change in FWRG stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -82.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.49 | 13.50 | -18.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,105 | 1,352 | 22.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.4% | 1.5% | 292.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 246.1 | 42.5 | -82.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 62 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FWRG | -18.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 18.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.6% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.2% change in FWRG stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.71 | 13.50 | -19.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 800 | 1,352 | 68.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.1% | 1.5% | -31.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 58.8 | 42.5 | -27.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 62 | -3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FWRG | -19.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 32.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.5% | 39.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FWRG Return | -24% | -19% | 49% | -7% | -19% | -10% | -39% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -16% | -5% | -5% | -7% | 12% | 12% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FWRG Win Rate | 0% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 38% | 40% | 43% | 45% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FWRG Max Drawdown | - | -32% | -19% | -48% | -33% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -33% | -38% | -39% | -42% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, REBN, MCD, SBUX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FWRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 427 days |
In The Past
First Watch Restaurant's stock fell -6.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | FWRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 427 days |
In The Past
First Watch Restaurant's stock fell -6.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) operates and franchises a chain of popular daytime restaurants under the "First Watch" brand name across the United States. The company's business model involves both directly managing company-owned locations and expanding its footprint through a network of franchised establishments. Founded in 1983, First Watch has grown to hundreds of restaurants across 28 states, establishing itself as a significant player in the casual dining sector.
The company's main products and services center around a diverse menu of freshly prepared breakfast, brunch, and lunch items. Offerings typically include signature omelets, pancakes, salads, sandwiches, and various health-conscious options. First Watch primarily serves individuals and families seeking a high-quality, made-to-order dining experience in a comfortable and welcoming atmosphere, making it a go-to destination for morning and midday meals.
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Here are a couple of analogies for First Watch Restaurant (FWRG):
Imagine a full-service Panera Bread, but primarily focused on breakfast, brunch, and lunch.
Think of it as a more contemporary IHOP or Denny's, exclusively serving breakfast, brunch, and lunch.
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- Restaurant Services: Provides dine-in and takeout breakfast, brunch, and lunch meals to customers through company-owned and franchised First Watch restaurant locations.
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other businesses. The company operates and franchises restaurants, serving meals directly to the public.
The up to three categories of customers that First Watch Restaurant serves include:
- Families and Social Groups: Customers dining together for breakfast, brunch, or lunch, often seeking a casual and fresh dining experience, particularly popular on weekends.
- Morning Commuters and Breakfast Eaters: Individuals or small groups looking for a quality breakfast before work, during a workday, or as a relaxed start to their day.
- Lunch Diners (Business and Leisure): Customers seeking lunch, whether for a business meeting, a casual break from work, or a leisurely meal during the midday hours.
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Chris Tomasso CEO & President
Chris Tomasso joined First Watch in 2006 as Chief Marketing Officer, becoming President in December 2015, and Chief Executive Officer in June 2018. He previously led strategic branding and marketing for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store and Hard Rock Café International. Chris led First Watch's initial public offering (IPO) in 2021.
Mel Hope Chief Financial Officer
Mel Hope joined First Watch in 2018 and has served as CFO for nearly eight years, guiding the company through its IPO process. Prior to First Watch, he was the CFO of Popeyes' Louisiana Kitchen and a partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC. He also held executive roles at several privately-owned organizations and startup ventures. Mel Hope plans to retire later this year but will remain CFO until his successor is in place.
Dan Jones Chief Operations Officer
Dan Jones joined First Watch as Chief Operations Officer in October 2021. Before joining First Watch, he served as Chief Operating Officer of CAVA since 2016. Dan also spent 14 years at Starbucks, eventually serving as Director of Operations for New York City.
Matt Eisenacher Chief Brand Officer
Matt Eisenacher joined First Watch in 2019 as Senior Vice President of Brand Strategy and Innovation and was promoted to Chief Brand Officer in 2023. Prior to First Watch, he served as Chief Operations Officer for Piada Italian Street Food and held various brand leadership positions at The Piada Group. He began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Jay Wolszczak Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel
Jay Wolszczak has served as General Counsel and Secretary of First Watch Restaurant Group since December 2019, and as chief legal officer, general counsel, and secretary of its subsidiary, First Watch Restaurants, Inc., since May 2018. Previously, Jay was General Counsel and Senior Vice President of Business Affairs for Hard Rock International, Inc. He also worked as an associate with Akerman Senterfitt and Holland & Knight.
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- Cost Inflation (Commodity and Labor): First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. faces significant pressure from commodity and labor inflation, which directly impacts its operating margins. The company has projected commodity cost inflation of approximately 6% for 2025, affecting core menu items such as eggs, bacon, and coffee beans, alongside a 4% labor inflation. This poses a substantial risk, as the company operates with a razor-thin net profitability, making it highly sensitive to rising costs.
- Execution Risk of Aggressive Expansion and Resulting Financial Strain: The company is pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy, with plans to open a significant number of new units annually (e.g., 63 to 64 new units in 2025). This rapid growth strategy carries inherent execution risks related to securing prime real estate, managing construction costs, and maintaining a quality workforce amidst labor inflation. This capital-intensive expansion contributes to low net profitability, high leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.59), and negative free cash flow, necessitating additional debt issuance and increasing interest expenses.
- Sensitivity to Economic Downturns and Competitive Pressures: Dining out at First Watch is considered a discretionary expense, making the company vulnerable to economic fluctuations and changes in consumer spending patterns. Economic downturns could lead to reduced customer traffic and lower same-store sales growth, as observed with recent negative traffic trends. Additionally, the restaurant industry is highly competitive, and First Watch must continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain its market position and attract customers.
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First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) operates within the U.S. daytime dining market, primarily offering breakfast, brunch, and lunch.
The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be 2,200 locations across the United States.
More broadly, the market sizes for relevant segments in the United States are:
- The U.S. breakfast restaurant market was valued at approximately $15.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $15.6 billion in 2025.
- The U.S. full-service restaurants market is predicted to be US$371.9 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to US$715.8 billion by 2032.
- The fast-casual restaurants market in the U.S. is valued at $191 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $230 billion by 2030. Another report estimates the U.S. fast casual restaurants market size to increase by USD 84.5 billion, at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2024 to 2029, and reach a value of USD 115.5 billion by 2026.
- The North American casual dining market is projected to increase from USD 70.12 billion in 2023 to USD 112.02 billion by 2033.
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First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- New Restaurant Openings and Unit Expansion: First Watch consistently emphasizes its robust pipeline and plans for opening new restaurants. The company expects low double-digit percentage unit growth annually and anticipates opening 59-63 new system-wide restaurants in 2026. New unit sales performance has consistently surpassed internal targets, with the 2025 class of new restaurants performing approximately 19% above underwriting targets. The company plans to expand in both new and core markets, including regions like the Sun Belt and Mid-Atlantic.
- Same-Restaurant Sales Growth: While facing some traffic challenges, First Watch aims for continued growth in same-restaurant sales, with a long-term target of around 3.5% and guidance of 1%-3% for 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by factors such as menu price increases, positive sales mix, and an ongoing focus on enhancing the overall guest experience. The company maintains a conservative pricing philosophy, primarily to cover permanent inflation and maintain value for customers.
- Strategic Acquisitions of Franchise-Owned Locations: Acquisitions play a role in First Watch's growth strategy by converting franchise-owned locations into company-owned restaurants. In 2023, the company converted 23 franchise restaurants to company-owned, which contributed to total revenue growth. Strategic acquisitions of franchise locations are projected to have a notable impact on total revenue growth.
- Menu Innovation and Expanded Digital Marketing Initiatives: First Watch is focusing on enhancing its menu and leveraging digital platforms to attract and retain customers. The company rolled out a new core menu in early 2026, marking its first significant redesign in almost a decade, and regularly introduces seasonal menus. Furthermore, First Watch is expanding its digital marketing initiatives to a wider base of restaurants in 2026, leveraging consumer and third-party data for more targeted campaigns, which has already shown positive returns.
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Share Repurchases
- No information is available regarding specific dollar amounts of share repurchases made by First Watch Restaurant Group within the last 3-5 years. The company's outstanding shares have generally shown a slight increase over this period.
Share Issuance
- Between 2024 and 2025, several secondary offerings of First Watch Restaurant Group's common stock were conducted by selling stockholders, primarily funds managed by Advent International. The company did not sell any shares in these offerings and did not receive any proceeds.
- In November 2024, 8,000,000 shares were offered to the public at a price of $19.95 per share by selling stockholders.
- Another secondary offering by selling stockholders in August 2025 involved 5,000,000 shares of common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2024, First Watch Restaurant Group agreed to acquire 16 franchise restaurants for $49 million.
- In April 2025, the company acquired three franchise-owned restaurants in Missouri, along with the development rights for the area.
- During Q2 CY2025, First Watch successfully acquired and integrated 19 franchise restaurants as part of its expansion strategy.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were approximately $156.91 million.
- The company projects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $150 million to $160 million.
- These capital expenditures are primarily focused on new restaurant projects and planned remodels, with an average net build-out cost of approximately $1.8 million per new restaurant.
Peer Outperformance in Restaurants
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | First Watch Restaurant | 17.5% | 42.5x | -23.3% | -21.5% | -33.7% | — |
| WING | Wingstop | 19.1% | 38.9x | -28.8% | -17.8% | 8.6% | +42pp |
| SHAK | Shake Shack | 16.1% | 74.0x | -22.9% | 22.4% | -6.7% | +27pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | 0.4% | 41.8% | 75.7% | CVSA 308% · GHC 120% · LRN 117% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 8.7% | 36.3% | 44.0% | PHM 190% · TOL 176% · GRBK 161% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 32.0% | 56.7% | 18.1% | RCL 288% · MAR 170% · HLT 159% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | 6.7% | 19.1% | 13.2% | MUSA 203% · ORLY 119% · PAG 117% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.6% | 20.2% | 6.6% | HD 8% · LOW 7% · FND -63% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 7.5% | 80.4% | 6.0% | SGI 63% · MHK -12% |
| Footwear | 9 | 103.1% | 90.4% | -9.9% | DECK 28% · SHOO 6% · CROX -10% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -3.7% | 43.2% | -12.4% | HRB 166% · FTDR 145% · ADT 30% |
| Restaurants ← | 36 | 5.3% | -2.4% | -12.4% | EAT 416% · CAKE 198% · TXRH 137% |
| Distributors | 4 | -3.1% | -13.8% | -22.8% | ARMK 102% · GPC 9% · POOL -55% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 33.6% | 74.6% | -27.5% | BBY 0% · GME -54% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -9.2% | -6.3% | -31.3% | GOLF 67% · HAS 56% · BC -9% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 26.5% | 24.4% | -34.9% | WHR -81% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | 2.6% | 25.4% | -41.5% | EBAY 79% · AMZN 53% · OLLI 34% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | 6.2% | 11.9% | -41.6% | ANF 264% · TJX 123% · ROST 121% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 0.6% | 5.8% | -43.2% | OSW 168% · LTH 160% · PLNT -38% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -9.0% | -25.5% | -45.6% | GTX 191% · PATK 78% · ALV 43% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 19.3% | 36.3% | -47.5% | RL 265% · TPR 239% · KTB 68% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -16.8% | -16.6% | -48.3% | MCRI 82% · BYD 27% · RRR 26% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | 2.5% | -10.2% | -55.5% | ULTA 73% · ASO 52% · DKS 28% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -68.6% | -41.3% | -68.3% | GM 64% · TSLA -6% · F -11% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.9% | -37.2% | -79.9% | GRMN 124% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| First Watch Restaurant Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Why First Watch Restaurant Stock Moved: FWRG Stock Has Gained 20% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | 08/08/2025 | |
| FWRG Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| null | 05/16/2025 | |
| First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 05/15/2025 | |
| First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) Operating Income Comparison | 02/14/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 03/31/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,352 |
| Op Inc LTM | 39 |
| FCF LTM | 50 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 49 |
| CFO LTM | 129 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 125 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -6.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.50 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.39 | $12.38 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 18.5% | 9.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.6% | 54.7% |
| Downside Capture | 46.50 | 103.38 |
| Upside Capture | 111.93 | 72.77 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 5.1% | 19.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.20 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | -1.68 | -2.33 | -1.71 | -0.05 | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| Down Beta | 2.00 | 1.21 | 0.55 | -0.33 | 0.39 | 1.01 |
| Up Capture | 104% | 1% | 54% | 32% | 52% | 48% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 25 | 35 | 62 | 117 | 366 |
| Down Capture | -270% | -3% | 67% | 54% | 105% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 29 | 64 | 132 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FWRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | -14.9% | 54.7% | -0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 1.6% | 19.6% | -0.05 | 29.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 10.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 24.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 9.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FWRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | -9.0% | 48.1% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.2% | 24.2% | 0.17 | 44.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 20.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FWRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | -4.7% | 48.0% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.1% | 22.3% | 0.53 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 39.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 19.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 5.3% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 2.4% | -3.8% | -3.4% |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.2% | -4.3% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -20.5% | -19.6% | -26.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | 11.0% | 11.5% | 14.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -17.6% | -10.0% | -16.4% |
| 3/11/2025 | -7.0% | -10.3% | -15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -7.0% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 19.5% | 31.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -21.7% | -26.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 5.3% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 2.4% | -3.8% | -3.4% |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.2% | -4.3% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -20.5% | -19.6% | -26.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | 11.0% | 11.5% | 14.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | -17.6% | -10.0% | -16.4% |
| 3/11/2025 | -7.0% | -10.3% | -15.7% |
| 1/13/2025 | -2.0% | -7.0% | 7.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 14.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | 11.1% | 13.6% | 11.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -14.4% | -21.7% | -23.3% |
| 3/5/2024 | -3.5% | -3.2% | -7.3% |
| 1/8/2024 | 2.8% | 4.6% | 16.8% |
| 11/1/2023 | 2.5% | 0.5% | 8.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | 7.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 5/2/2023 | 4.0% | 0.7% | 5.8% |
| 3/7/2023 | -1.7% | -7.3% | -4.8% |
| 1/9/2023 | 6.1% | 19.5% | 22.8% |
| 11/7/2022 | -8.2% | -3.9% | -14.5% |
| 8/9/2022 | -4.8% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| 5/10/2022 | 13.0% | 13.9% | 31.5% |
| 1/10/2022 | 2.5% | 1.5% | -1.2% |
| 11/8/2021 | -1.0% | -1.5% | -0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -7.0% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 19.5% | 31.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -21.7% | -26.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 10/04/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/4/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net New System-wide Restaurants | Reported | 60 | ||||||
| 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 2.0% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.25% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 13.5% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 13.25% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 136.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 134.50 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 145.00 Mil | -1.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 147.50 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | Reported | 1.5% | 2.25% | 3.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.5% | 13.25% | 14.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 13.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 133.00 Mil | 134.50 Mil | 136.00 Mil | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 136.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 145.00 Mil | 147.50 Mil | 150.00 Mil | -4.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 155.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net new system-wide restaurants | Reported | 59 | 61 | 63 | ||||
| 2026 Same-restaurant sales growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 133.00 Mil | 136.50 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 136.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 155.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 155.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Same-restaurant sales growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | -2.0% | Lower New | Actual: 4.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total revenue growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | -7.5% | Lower New | Actual: 20.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 132.00 Mil | 136.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 10.6% | Higher New | Actual: 123.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 155.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 3.3% | Higher New | Actual: 150.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/10/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones, John Daniel | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 1,697 | 21,246 | 1,060,757 | Form |
| 2 | Hartman, Eric Richard | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 1,819 | 22,774 | 3,061,516 | Form |
| 3 | Tomasso, Christopher Anthony | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 25,062 | 313,776 | 11,985,584 | Form |
| 4 | Sorensen, Laura Anne | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 1,697 | 21,246 | 2,971,660 | Form |
| 5 | Hope, H Melville Iii | CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 3,878 | 48,553 | 1,399,573 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones, John Daniel | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 1,697 | 21,246 | 1,060,757 | Form |
| 2 | Hartman, Eric Richard | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 1,819 | 22,774 | 3,061,516 | Form |
| 3 | Tomasso, Christopher Anthony | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 25,062 | 313,776 | 11,985,584 | Form |
| 4 | Sorensen, Laura Anne | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 1,697 | 21,246 | 2,971,660 | Form |
| 5 | Hope, H Melville Iii | CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 3,878 | 48,553 | 1,399,573 | Form |
| 6 | Wolszczak, Jay Anthony | Chief Legal Officer, GC & Secy | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 3,161 | 39,576 | 2,866,204 | Form |
| 7 | Eisenacher, Matthew | Chief Brand Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 12.52 | 2,760 | 34,555 | 841,632 | Form |
| 8 | Tomasso, Christopher Anthony | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 33,314 | 419,423 | 13,271,686 | Form |
| 9 | Hartman, Eric Richard | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 4,820 | 60,684 | 3,101,534 | Form |
| 10 | Hope, H Melville Iii | CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 7,358 | 92,637 | 1,456,222 | Form |
| 11 | Wolszczak, Jay Anthony | Chief Legal Officer, GC & Secy | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 6,998 | 88,105 | 2,922,026 | Form |
| 12 | Jones, John Daniel | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 4,600 | 57,914 | 1,088,053 | Form |
| 13 | Eisenacher, Matthew | Chief Brand Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 6,070 | 76,421 | 881,086 | Form |
| 14 | Sorensen, Laura Anne | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 12.59 | 4,732 | 59,576 | 3,009,640 | Form |
| 15 | Kussell, William A | Direct | Sell | 1262026 | 17.00 | 6,165 | 104,805 | 448,834 | Form | |
| 16 | Kussell, William A | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 17.00 | 6,165 | 104,805 | 448,834 | Form | |
| 17 | Advent, International, LP | See footnotes | Sell | 9102025 | 17.67 | 4,400,000 | 77,748,000 | 93,470,483 | Form | |
| 18 | Tomasso, Christopher Anthony | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 18.00 | 100,000 | 1,800,000 | 13,795,776 | Form |
| 19 | Advent, International, LP | See footnotes | Sell | 8122025 | 17.70 | 5,000,000 | 88,500,000 | 171,509,177 | Form | |
| 20 | Advent, International, LP | See footnotes | Sell | 6052025 | 14.70 | 4,500,000 | 66,150,000 | 215,939,825 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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