Wingstop (WING)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $264.59 | Market Cap: $7.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Wingstop (WING)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $264.59Market Cap: $7.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 68x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples). |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples). |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 68x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WING Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Wingstop (WING) experienced a notable decline in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, attributable to several key factors.
1. Lowered Full-Year Same-Store Sales Guidance: The company revised its full-year domestic same-store sales outlook for 2025 to an anticipated decline of 3% to 4%, a significant reduction from its previous expectation of 1% growth. This downgrade signaled increasing economic pressures impacting consumer spending.
2. Decline in Domestic Same-Store Sales for Q3 2025: For the fiscal third quarter ended September 27, 2025, Wingstop reported a 5.6% decrease in domestic same-store sales. This decline suggested a weakening in customer traffic or average transaction size during the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WING Return | 60% | 31% | -17% | 87% | 11% | -3% | 252% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WING Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WING Max Drawdown | -42% | -12% | -58% | -4% | -5% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WING | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 120 days |
Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
Wingstop's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WING. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 05312022 | WING | Wingstop | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 95.3% | 151.7% | -9.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 05312022 | WING | Wingstop | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 95.3% | 151.7% | -9.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wingstop
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 146.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47 |
| FCF LTM | 63 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 54 |
| CFO LTM | 103 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 80 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 26.1 |
| P/E | 40.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -26.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -41.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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