Wingstop (WING)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $247.62 | Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Wingstop (WING)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $247.62Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -11% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 68x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Key risksWING key risks include [1] its reliance on a single distributor and a limited group of suppliers and [2] its dependence on franchisee performance and their ability to successfully expand. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples). |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples). |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 68x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Key risksWING key risks include [1] its reliance on a single distributor and a limited group of suppliers and [2] its dependence on franchisee performance and their ability to successfully expand. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WING Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the negative movement of Wingstop (WING) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Decline in Q3 2025 Same-Store Sales and Revised Full-Year Outlook. Wingstop reported a 5.6% decline in same-store sales for the third quarter of 2025, announced on November 4, 2025. This was accompanied by a downgraded full-year 2025 outlook, with expectations shifting from 1% sales growth to a decline of 3% to 4%.
2. Broadening Consumer Softness and Economic Headwinds. The weaker performance in Q3 2025 was attributed to a challenging economic environment impacting a wider segment of consumers, particularly middle-income guests, who constitute a significant portion of Wingstop's customer base.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WING Return | 60% | 31% | -17% | 87% | 11% | -13% | 216% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 18% | -19% | 39% | 20% | -9% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WING Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 53% | 38% | 55% | 55% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WING Max Drawdown | -42% | -12% | -58% | -4% | -5% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -11% | -34% | -6% | -7% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DPZ, YUM, QSR, CMG, SHAK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WING | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 120 days |
Compare to TXRH, SFM, WEN, PZZA, GO
In The Past
Wingstop's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WING. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 05312022 | WING | Wingstop | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 95.3% | 151.7% | -9.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 05312022 | WING | Wingstop | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 95.3% | 151.7% | -9.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wingstop
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 117.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| Rev LTM | 6,455 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,462 |
| FCF LTM | 993 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 887 |
| CFO LTM | 1,159 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,021 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.5 |
| P/E | 31.6 |
| P/CFO | 21.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -42.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 10.9% | 11.2% | 23.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 26.9% | 16.6% | 17.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | 14.5% | 15.8% | 47.9% |
| 2/19/2025 | -13.4% | -21.9% | -29.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -21.4% | -16.3% | -10.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.7% | -2.3% | 3.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | -0.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| 2/21/2024 | -4.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 9.2% | 12.3% | 17.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -10.4% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 26.9% | 30.3% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -21.4% | -23.5% | -29.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |