Tearsheet

Wingstop (WING)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $264.59 | Market Cap: $7.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Wingstop (WING)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $264.59
Market Cap: $7.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -37%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 68x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples).
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples).
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -37%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 10x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 68x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WING Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Wingstop (WING) experienced a notable decline in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, attributable to several key factors.

1. Lowered Full-Year Same-Store Sales Guidance: The company revised its full-year domestic same-store sales outlook for 2025 to an anticipated decline of 3% to 4%, a significant reduction from its previous expectation of 1% growth. This downgrade signaled increasing economic pressures impacting consumer spending.

2. Decline in Domestic Same-Store Sales for Q3 2025: For the fiscal third quarter ended September 27, 2025, Wingstop reported a 5.6% decrease in domestic same-store sales. This decline suggested a weakening in customer traffic or average transaction size during the quarter.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WING Return60%31%-17%87%11%-3%252%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%8%-7%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WING Win Rate67%58%33%75%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%15%18%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WING Max Drawdown-42%-12%-58%-4%-5%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWINGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-62.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven314 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven150 days120 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

Wingstop's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Wingstop (WING)

Better Bets than Wingstop (WING)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WING. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
WING_5312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE05312022WINGWingstopDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
95.3%151.7%-9.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
WING_5312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE05312022WINGWingstopDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
95.3%151.7%-9.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Wingstop

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WINGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameWingstop Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Price268.64-308.6025.1824.68-146.91
Mkt Cap7.5-0.40.2--0.4
Rev LTM683-387282--387
Op Inc LTM180-2447--47
FCF LTM63-8134--63
FCF 3Y Avg92-5428--54
CFO LTM103-10751--103
CFO 3Y Avg133-8056--80

Growth & Margins

WINGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameWingstop Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Rev Chg LTM15.6%-6.9%-5.3%--6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg28.5%-1.7%4.2%--4.2%
Rev Chg Q8.1%-10.3%-6.6%--8.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%-2.5%-1.8%--2.0%
Op Mgn LTM26.3%-6.2%16.6%--16.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.0%-8.1%19.8%--19.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%-1.0%-1.3%--0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM15.2%-27.7%18.2%--18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.8%-21.3%19.4%--21.3%
FCF/Rev LTM9.2%-21.0%11.9%--11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.5%-14.2%9.7%--14.2%

Valuation

WINGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameWingstop Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Cap7.5-0.40.2--0.4
P/S10.3-1.11.2--1.2
P/EBIT26.1-61.29.3--26.1
P/E40.3-200.820.2--40.3
P/CFO67.8-3.96.5--6.5
Total Yield2.9%-0.5%5.7%--2.9%
Dividend Yield0.5%-0.0%0.7%--0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.1%-17.5%6.6%--6.6%
D/E0.2-0.80.8--0.8
Net D/E0.1--0.10.7--0.1

Returns

WINGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameWingstop Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
1M Rtn25.7%--13.3%4.9%1.7%-3.3%
3M Rtn-16.7%--0.4%-29.4%---16.7%
6M Rtn-26.4%-18.5%-37.8%---26.4%
12M Rtn-17.6%-37.8%-50.0%---17.6%
3Y Rtn66.7%-112.9%-71.6%--66.7%
1M Excs Rtn25.7%--13.2%4.9%1.7%-3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-18.2%--6.1%-35.6%---18.2%
6M Excs Rtn-41.1%-3.8%-52.5%---41.1%
12M Excs Rtn-31.5%-33.1%-65.2%---31.5%
3Y Excs Rtn5.2%-47.2%-143.8%--5.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Restaurant460    
Advertising fees 119827556
Company-owned restaurant sales 80706555
Royalty revenue, franchise fees and other 15913110988
Total460358283249200


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Restaurant70    
Total70    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,788,158
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202527.2%
Average Daily Volume1,348,927
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.81
Basic Shares Quantity27,899,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023503202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/24/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/25/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Caine Lynn Crump 6042025Sell345.60499172,4553,091,401Form
1Kapoor RajSVP, Pres. of International5072025Sell273.07637173,945141,176Form
2Kapoor RajSVP, Pres. of International12132024Sell324.3826686,28486,284Form