Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 19%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. ADT's Third Quarter 2025 Financial Outlook Disappointed Investors. On November 4, 2025, ADT reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results. Despite reporting revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that surpassed estimates, the company's full-year financial outlook for 2025 fell short of analyst expectations. The midpoint of its full-year revenue forecast was below what analysts had predicted, signaling slower anticipated growth.

2. Significant Stock Drop Following Q3 Earnings Report. The disappointing full-year guidance immediately impacted ADT's stock price, leading to a 6.2% decline in its shares on November 4, 2025, the day the third-quarter results were released. This overshadowing of positive quarterly performance by a weaker outlook was a key factor in the stock's movement.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADT Return1%9%10%-23%5%20%16%
Peers Return13%6%-30%0%-9%-4%-27%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADT Win Rate67%58%50%42%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%38%48%43%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADT Max Drawdown-53%-12%-26%-43%-10%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-16%-43%-31%-28%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CARR, REZI, CETX, ADT, BCO. See ADT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days148 days

Compare to CARR, REZI, CETX, ADT, BCO


In The Past

ADT's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/17/2021. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ADT (ADT)

Better Bets than ADT (ADT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
ADT_10312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312020ADTADTDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
40.8%28.7%0.0%
ADT_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE12312018ADTADTDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%45.9%-26.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
ADT_10312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312020ADTADTDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
40.8%28.7%0.0%
ADT_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE12312018ADTADTDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%45.9%-26.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ADT

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADTCARRREZICETXBCOMedian
NameADT Carrier .Resideo .Cemtrex Brink's  
Mkt Price8.1154.1834.273.05116.4934.27
Mkt Cap6.646.05.10.04.95.1
Rev LTM5,11322,0587,435765,1465,146
Op Inc LTM1,3062,2326252506625
FCF LTM1,3871,127-1,334-1418418
FCF 3Y Avg1,1631,481-243-5347347
CFO LTM1,9701,605-1,2332636636
CFO 3Y Avg1,8731,922-138-3558558

Growth & Margins

ADTCARRREZICETXBCOMedian
NameADT Carrier .Resideo .Cemtrex Brink's  
Rev Chg LTM6.3%1.9%15.5%16.5%3.1%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.4%3.3%6.1%16.6%5.1%5.1%
Rev Chg Q4.4%-6.8%2.0%15.5%6.1%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%-1.8%0.5%3.1%1.5%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM25.5%10.1%8.4%2.5%9.8%9.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.1%10.0%8.8%-4.5%9.9%9.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.8%-0.0%3.4%0.5%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM38.5%7.3%-16.6%2.0%12.4%7.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg40.1%9.6%-1.2%-5.2%11.2%9.6%
FCF/Rev LTM27.1%5.1%-17.9%-1.0%8.1%5.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg24.7%7.5%-2.8%-8.7%7.0%7.0%

Valuation

ADTCARRREZICETXBCOMedian
NameADT Carrier .Resideo .Cemtrex Brink's  
Mkt Cap6.646.05.10.04.95.1
P/S1.42.30.90.01.01.0
P/EBIT5.617.1-14.1-0.29.25.6
P/E11.112.7-10.1-0.128.811.1
P/CFO3.631.4-5.21.97.73.6
Total Yield11.7%9.3%-9.9%-732.3%3.5%3.5%
Dividend Yield2.7%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg18.2%2.9%0.5%-93.0%8.2%2.9%
D/E1.10.20.57.80.90.9
Net D/E1.10.20.45.40.60.6

Returns

ADTCARRREZICETXBCOMedian
NameADT Carrier .Resideo .Cemtrex Brink's  
1M Rtn0.4%-5.9%-17.3%-33.0%10.0%-5.9%
3M Rtn-8.0%-14.4%-2.5%-77.3%2.7%-8.0%
6M Rtn-0.4%-23.6%63.9%-78.1%40.4%-0.4%
12M Rtn9.9%-27.2%24.3%-92.9%23.8%9.9%
3Y Rtn-7.5%29.1%117.7%-100.0%104.2%29.1%
1M Excs Rtn-0.9%-7.1%-18.5%-34.3%8.8%-7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-12.6%-22.7%-9.9%-83.3%-4.0%-12.6%
6M Excs Rtn-15.9%-39.0%48.4%-94.1%25.0%-15.9%
12M Excs Rtn-4.1%-41.3%11.2%-107.3%7.8%-4.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-78.1%-43.0%43.0%-175.5%28.3%-43.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity27,273,238
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.7%
Average Daily Volume10,117,099
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.70
Basic Shares Quantity819,487,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC7302025Sell8.3171,000,000590,010,000936,124,541Form
1Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC7302025Sell8.3171,000,000590,010,000936,124,541Form
2Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC6062025Sell8.2745,000,000372,150,0001,518,788,527Form
3Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC6062025Sell8.2745,000,000372,150,0001,518,788,527Form
4Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC5142025Sell8.0250,000,000401,000,0001,833,775,935Form