Tearsheet

ADT (ADT)


Market Price (2/1/2026): $7.98 | Market Cap: $6.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services

ADT (ADT)


Market Price (2/1/2026): $7.98
Market Cap: $6.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 21%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  Key risks
ADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 21%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118%
7 Key risks
ADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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ADT (ADT) stock has lost about 10% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Analyst Downgrades and Cautionary Outlook.

Zacks Research downgraded ADT from "Hold" to "Strong Sell" on December 19, 2025. This downgrade, along with Morgan Stanley lowering its price target from $9.50 to $9.00 on December 17, 2025, contributed to a cautious to negative sentiment among investors. The overall consensus rating from analysts remained "Hold," but several assessments indicated a less favorable view compared to other companies in the industrials sector.

2. Anticipated Lower Revenue Growth.

Analysts projected ADT Inc.'s revenue growth to be only 3.9% year-over-year, falling short of the consensus expectation of 4.7% for the first quarter of 2025. This anticipated underperformance was linked to challenges stemming from seasonal factors, ongoing debt management issues, and the timing of operational investments, indicating potential headwinds for future growth metrics and a negative outlook for the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -9.1% change in ADT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252012026Change
Stock Price ($)8.787.98-9.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,0595,1131.1%
Net Income Margin (%)12.3%12.5%1.8%
P/E Multiple11.710.2-13.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8328191.6%
Cumulative Contribution-9.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADT-8.9% 
Market (SPY)1.5%38.4%
Sector (XLI)6.7%44.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -3.2% change in ADT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252012026Change
Stock Price ($)8.247.98-3.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,0595,1131.1%
Net Income Margin (%)12.3%12.5%1.8%
P/E Multiple11.010.2-7.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8328191.6%
Cumulative Contribution-3.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADT-2.9% 
Market (SPY)9.8%43.4%
Sector (XLI)9.3%44.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 6.8% change in ADT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252012026Change
Stock Price ($)7.477.986.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,8105,1136.3%
Net Income Margin (%)18.4%12.5%-32.1%
P/E Multiple7.610.233.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)90581910.5%
Cumulative Contribution6.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADT7.0% 
Market (SPY)16.0%47.7%
Sector (XLI)20.8%49.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.6% change in ADT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232012026Change
Stock Price ($)8.117.98-1.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,7125,1138.5%
P/S Multiple1.61.3-17.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)90581910.4%
Cumulative Contribution-1.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADT-1.4% 
Market (SPY)76.6%39.4%
Sector (XLI)69.5%43.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ADT Return9%10%-23%5%20%0%15%
Peers Return19%-22%12%14%21%2%47%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%86%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADT Win Rate58%50%42%42%67%100% 
Peers Win Rate60%37%45%45%52%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADT Max Drawdown-12%-26%-43%-10%-1%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-9%-36%-14%-12%-19%-3% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI. See ADT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/30/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days148 days

Compare to JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI

In The Past

ADT's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/17/2021. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.1% gain to breakeven.

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About ADT (ADT)

ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, commercial, and multi-site customers. The company primarily offers monitored security and automation solutions, including the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion, control access, sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical emergencies, or incapacitation. It also provides interactive and smart home solutions that allow customers to use their smart phones, tablets, and laptops to arm and disarm their security systems, adjust lighting or thermostat levels, and view real-time video of their premises; and creates customized and automated schedules for managing lights, thermostats, appliances, garage doors, cameras, and other connected devices, as well as offers monitoring and maintenance services. The company offers its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, Protection 1, ADT Commercial, and Blue by ADT names. It operates through a network of approximately 250 sales and service offices, as well as three regional distribution centers, which are supported by 17 multi-use sales, customer, and field support locations housing its nine UL-listed monitoring centers and four national sales centers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

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  • The Verizon of home and business security systems.
  • The Comcast of home security and smart home services.

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  • Residential Security Monitoring: Provides professional monitoring services for home burglar alarms, fire, carbon monoxide, and other environmental sensors.
  • Smart Home Automation: Offers integration and control of smart home devices such as lighting, thermostats, and door locks, often tied into security systems.
  • Commercial Security Solutions: Delivers customized security systems and monitoring for businesses, including access control, video surveillance, and intrusion detection.
  • Solar Energy Solutions (ADT Solar): Specializes in the installation and maintenance of residential solar panels and related energy storage systems.

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ADT (Symbol: ADT) Major Customers

ADT primarily sells security, smart home, and monitoring services directly to end-users, encompassing both individuals and businesses. The company's major customer categories are:

  • Residential Customers: These are individuals and families who subscribe to ADT's services for their homes. This category includes homeowners and renters seeking professional monitoring, intrusion detection, fire and life safety, and smart home automation solutions for personal security and convenience.
  • Small to Medium Business (SMB) Customers: This category comprises businesses of various sizes, such as retail stores, offices, restaurants, and healthcare facilities. These customers utilize ADT's solutions for commercial property protection, including security systems, video surveillance, access control, and professional monitoring services to safeguard their assets, employees, and operations.

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  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

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Jim DeVries, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Jim DeVries is the Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer of ADT. He joined ADT in 2016 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, became President in September 2017, CEO in December 2018, and Chairman in 2023. Prior to ADT, he spent nearly a decade at Allstate Insurance Company, serving as Executive Vice President of Operations and Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer. He also held various executive and management roles at Principal Financial Group, Ameritech, Quaker Oats Company, and Andrew Corporation. DeVries currently serves on the board of directors of ABM and as Lead Director on the board of Amsted Industries Inc. ADT was taken private by Apollo in 2016, the same year DeVries joined, and later went public again.

Jeff Likosar, President, Corporate Development and Transformation, and Chief Financial Officer

Jeff Likosar serves as President, Corporate Development and Transformation, and was reappointed Chief Financial Officer in April 2024, a position he previously held from February 2017 to August 2022, and on an interim basis since December 2023. In this role, he is responsible for corporate development activities, including strategic planning, mergers and acquisitions, and transformation execution. Before joining ADT, Likosar was the CFO at Gardner Denver, a private equity-backed provider of industrial equipment. He also held various executive finance roles at Dell Technologies, where he managed key elements of a multibillion-dollar take-private transaction, and at GE.

Fawad Ahmad, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating and Customer Officer

Fawad Ahmad has served as ADT's Executive Vice President and Chief Operating and Customer Officer since April 2025. He oversees the company’s operations organization, including field technicians, remote service and call center teams, IT, and procurement. With over 20 years of experience in building global products and leading digital transformations, he previously served as Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer at State Farm.

Omar Khan, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer

Omar Khan was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer in March 2025. In this role, he leads ADT's product, innovation, business development, and engineering teams. Khan brings extensive expertise in product development, emerging technologies, and strategic growth, having previously worked as a senior advisor at Boston Consulting Group and holding leadership roles at Magic Leap, Samsung, Motorola, and HealthyMD.

DeLu Jackson, Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing and Communications Officer

DeLu Jackson is the Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing and Communications Officer at ADT, a position he joined in 2021. He leverages over 20 years of marketing and brand leadership experience to drive ADT's transformation. Prior to ADT, he was Vice President, Precision Marketing at Conagra Brands, and held senior roles at other recognizable brands such as Kellogg Company, McDonald's, Audi, Nissan, and Subaru.

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Key Risks to ADT Business

  1. High Debt Load: ADT carries a significant amount of debt, with net debt around $7.5 billion as of the third quarter of 2025. The company's debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 2.13 as of September 2025, which is nearly three times the industry average of about 0.7297, indicating aggressive financial leverage. Managing this heavy debt load requires consistent and strong cash flow from its operations.
  2. Customer Churn and Intense Competition: ADT operates in a highly competitive market, facing "fierce competition from Do-It-Yourself (DIY) and self-monitored smart home solutions." This competitive landscape contributes to persistent customer churn, with a trailing 12-month gross customer revenue attrition rate of 13.0% in Q3 2025. This attrition directly erodes ADT's recurring monthly revenue base. Key competitors include Vivint, Ring, Frontpoint, and SimpliSafe, each offering diverse security solutions and targeting various market segments.
  3. Cybersecurity Incidents: ADT has recently experienced multiple cybersecurity incidents. In October 2024, the company reported that an "unauthorized party stole encrypted internal data related to employee user accounts" by accessing ADT's network through compromised credentials from a third-party business partner. This followed an August 2024 disclosure where "unauthorized actors illegally accessed certain databases containing ADT customer order information," which included email addresses, phone numbers, and postal addresses. Such incidents pose legal, reputational, and financial risks for the company, potentially affecting customer relationships.

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1. Rise of DIY and Smart Home Security Systems:

Similar to Netflix disrupting Blockbuster, companies like Ring (Amazon), SimpliSafe, and Google Nest are offering user-friendly, self-installable, and often more affordable security systems with competitive features. These systems frequently provide lower-cost professional monitoring options or free self-monitoring, directly challenging ADT's traditional model of professional installation, long-term contracts, and higher monthly fees. The market shift towards consumer preference for flexibility, affordability, and ease of setup is evident in the rapid growth and widespread adoption of these solutions, forcing ADT to develop its own DIY offerings as a defensive measure.

2. Aggressive Entry and Bundling by Tech and Telecom Giants:

Comparable to how Uber leveraged technology to disrupt traditional taxi services, major tech and telecom companies are integrating comprehensive security solutions into their existing ecosystems. Amazon (with Ring and Blink), Google (with Nest), and Comcast (with Xfinity Home) are leveraging their massive customer bases, brand recognition, and advanced technology to offer security as part of broader smart home, internet, or mobile service bundles. This allows them to compete on pricing, advanced features, and seamless integration, directly threatening ADT's standalone security proposition and its ability to capture new customers who prefer integrated digital lifestyle solutions.

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ADT's main products and services encompass residential and small business electronic security, fire protection, and alarm monitoring services. They also offer smart home automation and health safety solutions. The addressable markets for these services are substantial, primarily within North America and the United States.

Residential Security (including Smart Home Security)

  • The global smart home security market was estimated at approximately USD 33.94 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 82.07 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.2%.
  • North America holds a significant share of the global smart home security market, accounting for over 37% in 2024 and an estimated 36% of the connected home security market in 2025.
  • The U.S. smart home security market alone represented over 80% of the U.S. market in 2024 and 80.5% of the North American home security market.
  • The overall global home security systems market was valued at USD 54.9 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 109.18 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.94%. Other estimates place the global market at over USD 59.75 billion in 2025, potentially exceeding USD 119.75 billion by 2035.
  • In North America, the home security system market was valued at USD 13.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 45.6 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 13.70%.
  • The DIY home security solutions market globally was estimated at approximately US$ 12.13 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 30.707 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 9.7%. This market is also projected to reach US$ 22.2 billion by 2030 from US$ 9.8 billion in 2023, at a CAGR of 12.3%.

Commercial Security

  • The global commercial security system market was estimated at USD 202.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 540.47 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 11.8%.
  • Other estimations for the global commercial security market include USD 250.82 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 640.84 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 8.90%, and USD 204.23 billion in 2024, expected to grow to USD 381.66 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 11.4%.
  • North America is a dominant region in the commercial security system market, holding the largest revenue share of 37.3% in 2024.

Medical Alert Systems

  • The global medical alert systems market was valued at USD 9.05 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 18.71 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 8.45%.
  • North America holds a substantial share of the medical alert systems market, accounting for 40% in 2024 and 38.6% in 2023. It is expected to dominate the global market with a 41.8% share in 2024.
  • The U.S. medical alert systems market was valued at USD 2.55 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 7.63 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 11.58%.

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for ADT

ADT is positioned for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market dynamics:

  1. Expansion and Adoption of the ADT+ Platform and Related Outright Sales: The ADT+ platform, launched in 2024, is a significant driver, integrating security, life safety, automation, and analytics functions with Google Nest devices. This platform is leading to a continued mix shift towards outright sales of equipment at higher average prices, significantly boosting installation revenue. As more customers choose ADT+ offerings, the company benefits from upfront revenue recognition for equipment sales.
  2. Strategic Partnerships and New Customer Acquisition Channels: Collaborations, particularly with Google and State Farm, are key to expanding ADT's market reach and diversifying revenue streams. The integration of Google Nest camera models into ADT's ecosystem enhances its competitive position and attracts customers seeking advanced smart home security features. Additionally, ADT is exploring a new digital approach with State Farm for customer acquisition, which aims to access new customer segments.
  3. Growth in Recurring Monthly Revenue (RMR) through Enhanced Product Mix and Pricing: Despite some fluctuations in gross subscriber additions, ADT has demonstrated consistent growth in its recurring monthly revenue (RMR). This growth is primarily fueled by increases in average pricing and an improved product mix, as customers opt for more comprehensive and higher-value ADT+ offerings. The company's focus on retaining customers is also crucial, with ongoing initiatives aimed at improving attrition rates.
  4. Launch and Growth of New Products and Services, including AI Initiatives: ADT continues to expand its product ecosystem with new offerings beyond the core ADT+ platform, such as the 'Trusted Neighbor' service, which enhances customer convenience and control. Furthermore, ADT's investments in AI and remote service technologies are improving operational efficiency, reducing in-home service calls, and enhancing overall customer service, which can indirectly support revenue by improving customer satisfaction and retention.
  5. Strategic Bulk Account Purchases: While the volume of bulk account purchases can vary quarter-to-quarter, these acquisitions remain a strategic tool for ADT to augment new subscriber growth and boost RMR. The company has historically closed on such purchases to directly increase its customer base.

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Share Repurchases

  • In February 2025, ADT's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase plan for up to $500 million of its common stock, expiring on April 30, 2026.
  • For the full year 2024, ADT repurchased 36 million shares for a total of $241 million.
  • Year-to-date in 2025, ADT has returned $746 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, including $112 million to repurchase 13 million shares in the third quarter of 2025 alone.

Share Issuance

  • ADT has not directly issued shares for capital raising in the last 3-5 years. Secondary public offerings of ADT common stock by affiliates of Apollo Global Management have occurred, where ADT did not sell shares or receive proceeds, such as 70 million shares in March 2025 and 71 million shares in July 2025.

Inbound Investments

  • In August 2020, Google invested $450 million in ADT in exchange for a 6.6% equity stake.
  • In September 2022, State Farm made a $1.5 billion investment in ADT, acquiring a 15% stake and committing $300 million to growth initiatives.
  • Google has committed $300 million towards marketing efforts, with ADT receiving $40 million in 2023 and $22.5 million in the first nine months of 2024.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2021, ADT acquired Sunpro Solar (later rebranded as ADT Solar) for approximately $825 million, which included $160 million in cash and 77.8 million shares of ADT common stock. ADT subsequently exited the solar business in January 2024.
  • In December 2023, ADT acquired approximately 57,000 subscriber accounts for $89 million.
  • In January 2024, ADT completed acquisitions of companies such as Apex Integrated Security Solutions and Portland Safe.

Capital Expenditures

  • For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total capital expenditures decreased by $104 million (19%) to $433 million.
  • This reduction was primarily due to a $99 million decrease in subscriber system asset expenditures, stemming from a strategic shift towards the ADT+ outright sales model.
  • ADT's capital expenditures include purchases of property and equipment, capitalized costs associated with security systems where the company retains ownership, and accounts acquired through authorized dealers or third parties.

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

ADTJCIHONALLEALRMREZIMedian
NameADT Johnson .Honeywel.Allegion Alarm.comResideo . 
Mkt Price7.98119.27227.50165.4948.7834.2784.03
Mkt Cap6.575.2144.514.22.45.110.4
Rev LTM5,11323,59640,6703,9809927,4356,274
Op Inc LTM1,3062,8287,6928341306251,070
FCF LTM1,3879656,164680153-1,334823
FCF 3Y Avg1,1631,4485,212585150-243874
CFO LTM1,9701,3997,485763174-1,2331,081
CFO 3Y Avg1,8731,9066,336671165-1381,272

Growth & Margins

ADTJCIHONALLEALRMREZIMedian
NameADT Johnson .Honeywel.Allegion Alarm.comResideo . 
Rev Chg LTM6.3%2.8%7.5%6.9%7.4%15.5%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.4%4.6%5.2%8.6%6.1%6.1%5.6%
Rev Chg Q4.4%3.1%7.0%10.7%6.6%2.0%5.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%0.8%1.7%2.7%1.6%0.5%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM25.5%12.0%18.9%21.0%13.1%8.4%16.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.1%11.1%19.5%20.4%10.2%8.8%15.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.4%-0.9%-0.1%0.2%-0.0%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM38.5%5.9%18.4%19.2%17.5%-16.6%18.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg40.1%8.3%16.4%17.7%17.7%-1.2%17.1%
FCF/Rev LTM27.1%4.1%15.2%17.1%15.4%-17.9%15.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg24.7%6.3%13.5%15.4%16.2%-2.8%14.5%

Valuation

ADTJCIHONALLEALRMREZIMedian
NameADT Johnson .Honeywel.Allegion Alarm.comResideo . 
Mkt Cap6.575.2144.514.22.45.110.4
P/S1.33.23.63.62.50.72.8
P/EBIT5.134.216.516.813.7-11.215.1
P/E10.222.923.622.219.0-8.020.6
P/CFO3.353.819.318.614.0-4.116.3
Total Yield12.7%5.7%6.3%5.7%5.3%-12.5%5.7%
Dividend Yield2.9%1.3%2.0%1.2%0.0%0.0%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg18.2%3.0%3.9%4.8%5.2%-2.1%4.3%
D/E1.20.10.30.10.40.60.3
Net D/E1.20.10.20.10.00.60.1

Returns

ADTJCIHONALLEALRMREZIMedian
NameADT Johnson .Honeywel.Allegion Alarm.comResideo . 
1M Rtn-0.4%-2.5%16.1%2.8%-4.8%-2.5%-1.4%
3M Rtn-9.1%4.6%13.7%0.1%-0.9%-19.9%-0.4%
6M Rtn-2.6%12.8%12.1%0.8%-9.8%34.8%6.4%
12M Rtn6.8%55.2%10.2%26.4%-19.6%52.2%18.3%
3Y Rtn-2.4%96.4%24.1%42.1%-16.2%73.7%33.1%
1M Excs Rtn-1.5%-2.0%15.2%2.1%-6.4%-3.8%-1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-7.2%4.9%13.3%-0.5%-1.4%-22.2%-0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-12.6%4.9%0.3%-9.1%-20.2%16.1%-4.4%
12M Excs Rtn-7.0%43.8%-3.4%13.2%-35.2%36.3%4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-71.1%13.4%-48.2%-20.2%-77.4%18.3%-34.2%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Monitoring and related services4,179   
Security installation, product, and other474   
Consumer and Small Business (CSB) 4,3824,1464,325
Solar 78647 
Commercial  1,114990
Total4,6535,1685,3075,315


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$8.00 
Market Cap ($ Bil)6.6 
First Trading Date09/10/2014 
Distance from 52W High-9.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$8.09$8.27
DMA Trendindeterminatedown
Distance from DMA-1.1%-3.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility24.7%26.7%
Downside Capture120.8582.67
Upside Capture56.1976.99
Correlation (SPY)38.2%47.8%
ADT Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.210.780.830.890.660.94
Up Beta2.871.670.200.900.620.77
Down Beta1.671.011.040.920.540.75
Up Capture23%37%54%66%68%102%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days9213059127380
Down Capture58%54%119%106%89%106%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days9172862117349

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADT
ADT8.2%26.6%0.27-
Sector ETF (XLI)21.4%19.0%0.8949.5%
Equity (SPY)16.1%19.2%0.6547.8%
Gold (GLD)76.5%23.4%2.38-2.4%
Commodities (DBC)11.1%15.9%0.4812.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%16.5%0.1447.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-18.9%39.9%-0.4325.3%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADT
ADT0.2%39.9%0.12-
Sector ETF (XLI)15.2%17.2%0.7147.3%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.1%0.6545.6%
Gold (GLD)20.8%16.5%1.034.9%
Commodities (DBC)12.2%18.8%0.5314.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1643.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)21.1%57.5%0.5619.2%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADT
ADT-1.1%48.7%0.15-
Sector ETF (XLI)15.0%19.8%0.6742.8%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7541.5%
Gold (GLD)15.6%15.3%0.852.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%17.6%0.4018.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.9%20.8%0.2537.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)71.5%66.4%1.1111.1%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 12312025-0.9%
Average Daily Volume5.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity819.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-8.1%-7.5%-7.1%
7/24/20252.8%-0.8%2.5%
2/27/20257.8%2.3%10.1%
10/24/202417.6%6.5%9.0%
8/1/2024-8.9%-8.9%-5.4%
2/28/202410.1%13.6%3.9%
11/2/202316.5%5.6%10.8%
8/8/20232.4%4.5%-2.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141211
# Negative578
Median Positive4.4%4.6%10.1%
Median Negative-8.1%-7.5%-6.3%
Max Positive56.6%41.7%23.7%
Max Negative-12.5%-23.0%-32.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202410/24/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202103/01/202210-K

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, LlcSee footnoteSell73020258.3171,000,000590,010,000936,124,541Form
2Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, LlcSee footnoteSell73020258.3171,000,000590,010,000936,124,541Form
3Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, LlcSee FootnoteSell60620258.2745,000,000372,150,0001,518,788,527Form
4Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, LlcSee FootnoteSell60620258.2745,000,000372,150,0001,518,788,527Form
5Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, LlcSee FootnoteSell51420258.0250,000,000401,000,0001,833,775,935Form