ADT (ADT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.14 | Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
ADT (ADT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.14Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Key risksADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 19% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108% |
| Key risksADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
ADT's stock experienced a notable movement in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this trend.
1. Morgan Stanley Reduced Price Target: On December 17, 2025, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for ADT from $9.50 to $9.00, while maintaining an "equal-weight" rating. This adjustment represented a -5.26% change in the price target, signaling a more cautious outlook from a prominent analytical firm and potentially influencing investor perception.
2. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report: ADT reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025. Although the company announced a 4% increase in revenue and a 15% rise in adjusted earnings per share, its revenue of $1.30 billion slightly missed analyst estimates of $1.31 billion. This mixed performance, where profits beat but revenue slightly lagged expectations, may have contributed to a tempered market reaction.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADT Return | 1% | 9% | 10% | -23% | 5% | 21% | 17% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 19% | -22% | 12% | 14% | 23% | 119% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADT Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 37% | 45% | 45% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADT Max Drawdown | -53% | -12% | -26% | -43% | -10% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -9% | -36% | -14% | -12% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI. See ADT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
Compare to CARR, REZI, CETX, ADT, BCO
In The Past
ADT's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/17/2021. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| ADT Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than ADT Stock: Pay Less Than ADT To Get More From CALM, SNEX | |||
| ADT (ADT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| ADT (ADT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ADT (ADT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ADT (ADT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| How ADT’s Stock Is Benefiting From Its Planned Divestment Of Canadian Business | October 23rd, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312020 | ADT | ADT | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.8% | 28.7% | 0.0% |
| 12312018 | ADT | ADT | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 45.9% | -26.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312020 | ADT | ADT | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.8% | 28.7% | 0.0% |
| 12312018 | ADT | ADT | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 45.9% | -26.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ADT
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,274 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,070 |
| FCF LTM | 823 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 874 |
| CFO LTM | 1,081 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,272 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.0 |
| P/E | 21.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -39.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -8.1% | -7.5% | -7.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 2.8% | -0.8% | 2.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | 7.8% | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | 17.6% | 6.5% | 9.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.9% | -8.9% | -5.4% |
| 2/28/2024 | 10.1% | 13.6% | 3.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 16.5% | 5.6% | 10.8% |
| 8/8/2023 | 2.4% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 4.7% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.1% | -7.5% | -6.3% |
| Max Positive | 56.6% | 41.7% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -23.0% | -32.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | 7302025 | Sell | 8.31 | 71,000,000 | 590,010,000 | 936,124,541 | Form | |
| 1 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | 7302025 | Sell | 8.31 | 71,000,000 | 590,010,000 | 936,124,541 | Form | |
| 2 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | 6062025 | Sell | 8.27 | 45,000,000 | 372,150,000 | 1,518,788,527 | Form | |
| 3 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | 6062025 | Sell | 8.27 | 45,000,000 | 372,150,000 | 1,518,788,527 | Form | |
| 4 | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | 5142025 | Sell | 8.02 | 50,000,000 | 401,000,000 | 1,833,775,935 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |