Tearsheet

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (5/17/2026): $6.83 | Market Cap: $5.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (5/17/2026): $6.83
Market Cap: $5.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 27%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 136%

Key risks
ADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data.

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 27%
1	Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
3	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 27%
4	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.
5	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%
6	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 136%
7	Key risks ADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	5/17/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price CYE	$6.83	$8.07	$6.91	$6.82	$9.07
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	5.6	6.6	6.1	6.2	8.2
Total Debt ($ Bil)	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.8	9.8
Total Cash ($ Bil)	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	13.1	14.3	13.8	14.0	18.0
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	1.1	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.7
P/EBIT TTM	4.3	5.1	4.9	6.8	12.1
P/E TTM	8.9	11.1	12.2	13.4	62.0
P/FCF TTM	3.7	5.0	5.1	7.3	8.4
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.8
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.9	7.9	8.2	7.7	5.8
P/E TTM (Sector)	11.0	11.5	11.0	10.3	7.7
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	9.2	10.9	12.0	9.3	6.0

	5/17/26	2025	2024
Share Price CYE	$6.83	$8.07	$6.91
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	5.6	6.6	6.1
Total Debt ($ Bil)	7.7	7.7	7.7
Total Cash ($ Bil)	0.1	0.1	0.1
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	13.1	14.3	13.8
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	1.1	1.3	1.3
P/EBIT TTM	4.3	5.1	4.9
P/E TTM	8.9	11.1	12.2
P/FCF TTM	3.7	5.0	5.1
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.7	0.9	0.9
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.9	7.9	8.2
P/E TTM (Sector)	11.0	11.5	11.0
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	9.2	10.9	12.0

	ADT	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	5.1
Rev Chg Q	0.9%	8.7%
Rev Chg LTM	3.3%	7.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	3.1%	5.8%
PROFITABILITY	GOOD
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	1.3
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	2.1
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.6
Op Mgn LTM	25.6%	18.4%
CFO/Rev LTM	40.0%	21.1%
Net Inc Mgn	12.1%	13.0%
VALUATION	LOW
P/S	1.1	3.1
P/CFO	2.7	14.7
P/FCF	3.7	18.8
P/E	8.9	23.3
STABILITY	VERY POOR
Debt/Equity	1.38	0.22
Cash/Assets	0.01	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Recurring Monthly Revenue (RMR)	362 million	9302025	Link
Gross Customer Revenue Attrition	13.0%	9302025	Link
Revenue Payback	2.3 years	9302025	Link
Number of Subscribers	6.3 million	9302025	Link
Gross Subscriber Additions	210,000	9302025	Link
Average Customer Tenure	approximately 8 years	11042025	Link
ADT+ Platform Penetration (New Customers)	25%	9302025	Link

Upcoming
6/11/2026	Dividend	Amount: $0.06 Payment On: 7/07/2026
7/30/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $1.0 Bil (E) EPS: $0.22 (E)

Price Chart

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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ADT (ADT) stock has lost about 15% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Q4 2025 Revenue Miss and Flat 2026 Outlook. ADT reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on March 2, 2026, with revenue of $1.28 billion, missing analyst estimates of $1.31 billion by 2.29%. This revenue shortfall contributed to a significant pre-market stock decline of 14.96% on that day, bringing the share price down to $6.82. Furthermore, management projected that 2026 revenue and Adjusted EPS would be approximately flat compared to 2025, with anticipated tariff-related subscriber acquisition cost pressure of roughly $45 million.

2. Cybersecurity Data Breach and Reputational Risk. On April 24, 2026, ADT publicly disclosed that it had detected unauthorized access to customer and prospective customer data on April 20, 2026. While no payment information was accessed, the breach involved names, phone numbers, and addresses, and in a smaller number of cases, dates of birth and the last four digits of Social Security numbers or Tax IDs. A hacking group claimed responsibility, alleging over 10 million records were compromised, with a confirmed victim count of approximately 5.5 million people by a breach notification service. This event, particularly for a security provider, raised concerns about customer trust and brand reputation.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.9% change in ADT stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	1312026	5162026	Change
Stock Price ($)	7.93	6.83	-13.9%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5,113	5,140	0.5%
Net Income Margin (%)	12.5%	12.1%	-3.1%
P/E Multiple	10.1	8.9	-12.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	819	814	0.6%
Cumulative Contribution			-13.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	-13.9%
Market (SPY)	7.1%	47.0%
Sector (XLY)	-3.6%	50.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -21.6% change in ADT stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	10312025	5162026	Change
Stock Price ($)	8.71	6.83	-21.6%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5,059	5,140	1.6%
Net Income Margin (%)	12.3%	12.1%	-1.3%
P/E Multiple	11.6	8.9	-23.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	832	814	2.2%
Cumulative Contribution			-21.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	-21.6%
Market (SPY)	9.0%	44.1%
Sector (XLY)	-2.5%	46.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.4% change in ADT stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	4302025	5162026	Change
Stock Price ($)	7.80	6.83	-12.4%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	4,976	5,140	3.3%
Net Income Margin (%)	11.0%	12.1%	9.9%
P/E Multiple	12.2	8.9	-27.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	863	814	5.9%
Cumulative Contribution			-12.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	-12.4%
Market (SPY)	34.8%	44.6%
Sector (XLY)	19.1%	44.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 10.9% change in ADT stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 354.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	4302023	5162026	Change
Stock Price ($)	6.16	6.83	10.9%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	4,966	5,140	3.5%
Net Income Margin (%)	2.7%	12.1%	354.6%
P/E Multiple	42.1	8.9	-78.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	906	814	11.3%
Cumulative Contribution			10.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	10.9%
Market (SPY)	84.7%	38.2%
Sector (XLY)	61.5%	39.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
ADT Return	9%	10%	-23%	5%	20%	-14%	-0%
Peers Return	19%	-22%	12%	14%	21%	-3%	40%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	10%	100%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADT Win Rate	58%	50%	42%	42%	67%	40%
Peers Win Rate	60%	37%	45%	45%	52%	36%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	60%
Max Drawdowns [4]
ADT Max Drawdown	-33%	-28%	-47%	-17%	-12%	-22%
Peers Max Drawdown	-20%	-37%	-24%	-18%	-23%	-20%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-5%	-25%	-10%	-8%	-19%	-9%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI. See ADT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)

Event	ADT	S&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
% Loss	-11.3%	-9.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	12.8%	10.5%
Time to Breakeven	1 days	24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
% Loss	-38.2%	-6.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	61.8%	7.1%
Time to Breakeven	539 days	31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
% Loss	-26.2%	-24.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	35.5%	32.4%
Time to Breakeven	82 days	427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
% Loss	-48.1%	-33.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	92.5%	50.9%
Time to Breakeven	70 days	140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
% Loss	-31.5%	-19.2%
% Gain to Breakeven	45.9%	23.8%
Time to Breakeven	333 days	105 days

Compare to JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI

In The Past

ADT's stock fell -1.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 1.2% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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Event	ADT	S&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
% Loss	-38.2%	-6.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	61.8%	7.1%
Time to Breakeven	539 days	31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
% Loss	-26.2%	-24.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	35.5%	32.4%
Time to Breakeven	82 days	427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
% Loss	-48.1%	-33.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	92.5%	50.9%
Time to Breakeven	70 days	140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
% Loss	-31.5%	-19.2%
% Gain to Breakeven	45.9%	23.8%
Time to Breakeven	333 days	105 days

Compare to JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI

In The Past

ADT's stock fell -1.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 1.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ADT (ADT)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, commercial, and multi-site customers. The company primarily offers monitored security and automation solutions, including the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion, control access, sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical emergencies, or incapacitation. It also provides interactive and smart home solutions that allow customers to use their smart phones, tablets, and laptops to arm and disarm their security systems, adjust lighting or thermostat levels, and view real-time video of their premises; and creates customized and automated schedules for managing lights, thermostats, appliances, garage doors, cameras, and other connected devices, as well as offers monitoring and maintenance services. The company offers its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, Protection 1, ADT Commercial, and Blue by ADT names. It operates through a network of approximately 250 sales and service offices, as well as three regional distribution centers, which are supported by 17 multi-use sales, customer, and field support locations housing its nine UL-listed monitoring centers and four national sales centers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

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A professionally installed and monitored version of Ring or Nest.

The Xfinity Home or AT&T Digital Life of dedicated security and smart home solutions.

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Monitored Security Solutions: Provides continuous surveillance and alerts for intrusion, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, and personal emergencies.
Smart Home & Automation Solutions: Enables remote control and automated scheduling of lighting, thermostats, appliances, and other connected devices via smart devices.
Video Surveillance Systems: Offers real-time video monitoring capabilities for premises.
Access Control Systems: Manages entry and exit points for enhanced security.
Fire Suppression Systems: Provides equipment and services to detect and extinguish fires.
Maintenance Services: Ensures the ongoing functionality and reliability of installed security and automation systems.

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ADT Inc. sells primarily to individuals and serves the following major customer categories:

Residential Security Customers: Individuals and families seeking comprehensive security solutions for their homes, including systems designed to detect intrusion, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, and other environmental hazards.
Smart Home Users: Consumers who leverage ADT's interactive and smart home solutions to integrate security with home automation, allowing them to control various connected devices like lighting, thermostats, appliances, and cameras via smartphones, tablets, and laptops.
Personal Emergency Response Service Users: Individuals who rely on ADT's systems for immediate assistance in case of personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical incidents, or incapacitation within their premises.

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

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Jim DeVries, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Jim DeVries joined ADT in 2016 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, was appointed President in September 2017, CEO in December 2018, and Chairman in 2023. Prior to joining ADT, he spent nearly a decade at Allstate Insurance Company, serving as Executive Vice President of Operations as well as Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer. He has also held senior leadership roles in the financial services and telecommunications industries, including Senior Vice President of Human Resources at Principal Financial Group and Vice President for Corporate Services and Human Resources at Ameritech's Monitoring and Security Services Division.

Jeff Likosar, President, Corporate Development and Transformation, and Chief Financial Officer

Jeff Likosar was reappointed Chief Financial Officer in April 2024, having served as interim CFO since December 2023. He previously held the CFO position at ADT from 2017 to 2022. He has been an integral part of ADT's leadership team since 2016. Along with his CFO responsibilities, Likosar remains responsible for corporate development, strategy, and transformation execution.

Fawad Ahmad, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating and Customer Officer

Fawad Ahmad was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating and Customer Officer in April 2025. He is responsible for leading ADT's operations organization, including field technicians, remote service, call center teams, IT, and procurement. Ahmad brings over 20 years of experience in building global products and leading digital transformations. Before joining ADT, he served as Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer at State Farm.

Omar Khan, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer

Omar Khan was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer in March 2025. In this role, he leads ADT's product, innovation, business development, and engineering teams. Prior to ADT, Khan served as a Senior Advisor at Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and held leadership roles at Magic Leap, Samsung, Motorola, and Healthy MD. He has a background in strategic planning, business development, and emerging technologies.

David Smail, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary

David Smail has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary since February 2019. He possesses over 30 years of legal experience both in the U.S. and internationally, including 10 years of law firm corporate and securities transactional practice and more than 20 years in public company general counsel roles. From August 2015 to September 2018, he served as Executive Vice President & Chief Legal Officer for Scientific Games Corporation. His previous roles also include Executive Vice President & General Counsel at Morgans Hotel Group and Executive Vice President and Group General Counsel of Havas S.A.

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Here are the key risks to ADT's business:

Key Risks to ADT Inc.

Intense Competition and the Rise of DIY Solutions: ADT operates in a highly competitive security and smart home industry, facing pressure from both traditional rivals and an increasing number of new entrants, particularly those offering self-monitored and do-it-yourself (DIY) security alternatives. This competitive landscape can limit ADT's pricing power, threaten its market position, and contribute to customer attrition, challenging its traditional installation and fee-based monitoring model.
Technological Innovation and Integration Challenges: The rapid pace of technological change in the security and smart home sector necessitates continuous investment in research and development and the delivery of next-generation products. ADT's ability to successfully innovate, keep its technology current, and integrate new solutions—such as AI, IoT devices, and its strategic partnership with Google—is crucial for maintaining competitiveness and future growth. Delays or failures in IT modernization and product development could disrupt operations and negatively impact financial performance.
High Levels of Indebtedness: ADT carries a substantial amount of debt, which can restrict its financial and operational flexibility. This high debt load limits the company's ability to respond swiftly to market changes or invest aggressively in growth opportunities, and requires a significant portion of its cash flow for debt servicing.

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The proliferation and increasing consumer adoption of DIY (Do-It-Yourself) smart home security systems offered by companies like Ring (owned by Amazon), SimpliSafe, and Arlo. These systems often provide more affordable equipment, easier self-installation, and flexible or lower-cost monitoring options, directly competing with ADT's traditional professionally installed and monitored, often higher-cost, solutions.

The increasing integration of smart home security functionalities into broader consumer technology ecosystems by major tech companies (e.g., Amazon with Ring and Alexa, Google with Nest and Google Home). These tech giants leverage their extensive customer bases, brand recognition, and platforms to offer comprehensive smart home solutions that include security features, potentially sidelining traditional security providers.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for ADT's main products and services in the U.S. region:

Residential Security Market (U.S.): The US interactive residential security market is forecast to increase by USD 2.97 billion between 2023 and 2028, with a CAGR of 10.26%. The residential security market is projected to grow at a 7.9% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. Approximately 94 million U.S. households utilize some form of security system, including cameras, alarms, or access control tools.
Commercial Security System Market (U.S.): The U.S. Commercial Security System Market is projected to grow from USD 78.32 billion in 2025 to USD 145.91 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 8.12%. Another report states the U.S. market is projected to reach USD 93.38 billion by 2030. The global commercial security system market size was estimated at USD 202.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 540.47 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 11.8% from 2025 to 2033. North America dominated the commercial security system market with over 30% share in 2022.
Smart Home Market (U.S.): The U.S. smart home market size was estimated at USD 23.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23.4% from 2025 to 2030, reaching USD 84.20 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. smart home market size at USD 36.38 billion in 2024, projected to reach approximately USD 403.09 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 27.19% from 2025 to 2034. The U.S. Smart Home Market is valued at approximately USD 25 billion. The United States Smart Home Security Market reached USD 3.26 billion in 2024 and is estimated to attain USD 8.26 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.83% from 2025 to 2033.
Fire Protection System Market (U.S.): The U.S. fire protection system market size was estimated at USD 25.94 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2025 to 2030. The U.S. fire suppression system market is valued at USD 6.4 billion. Another source reported the U.S. fire suppression system market size was valued at USD 6.49 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2030. The US Fire Protection Systems Market is predicted to reach USD 84 billion by 2035, at a 12.34% CAGR.
Video Surveillance Market (U.S.): The U.S. Video Surveillance Market is valued at USD 10.99 billion. Other reports indicate the U.S. video surveillance market is expected to be valued at USD 11.27 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 18.06 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.2%. Another projection for the United States Video Surveillance Market size in 2026 is USD 15.53 billion, growing to USD 27.45 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 12.07%. The United States Video Surveillance Market will reach US$ 50.54 billion by 2032, up from US$ 18.57 billion in 2023.
Access Control Market (U.S.): The U.S. access control market generated a revenue of USD 2.62 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.68 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6% from 2025 to 2030. Another report states the United States access control market size reached USD 2.72 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3.86 billion by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 3.83% during 2026-2034. One source estimates the US access control market size at USD 3.28 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 8.34 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.8% during the forecast period 2025-2035. The US access control market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 3.94 billion, with projections showing USD 4.81 billion by 2031, growing at 4.05% CAGR over 2026-2031.

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ADT (symbol: ADT) is focused on several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, despite anticipating flat revenue and earnings per share in 2026 as it transitions and invests in these initiatives. The company aims for a multi-year financial framework targeting 5% annual revenue growth. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth: * Expansion of ADT+ and next-generation smart home security platforms: ADT is investing in and developing ADT+, a next-generation smart home security platform, along with new features such as Live Light and My Safety. The acquisition of Origin AI is also intended to integrate ambient intelligence into its proprietary platform, enhancing its smart home offerings. * Growth in commercial and solar segments: The company's long-term strategy emphasizes expanding its reach across consumer and small business, commercial, and solar segments. This strategy leverages the existing momentum from its partnership with Google and its commercial and solar ventures. * Introduction of bundled services and innovative offerings: ADT plans to introduce more flexible and comprehensive bundled services. These new offerings will integrate smart home security with energy management, as well as mobile, vehicle security, and smart aging products, providing greater customer choice and potentially increasing average revenue per user. * Investments in customer acquisition efficiency and new sales channels: ADT is focusing on improving its customer acquisition efficiency through targeted marketing to new segments and refining its channel strategy. This includes expanding into e-commerce and do-it-yourself (DIY) channels, with DIY already showing significant growth. * Leveraging AI and automation for an enhanced customer experience: While primarily aimed at efficiency and improved alarm handling, the strategic expansion of AI in customer service and sales/marketing is expected to be transformational, leading to better customer retention and potentially attracting new customers through a superior service experience.

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Share Repurchases

In 2025, ADT repurchased and retired 78 million shares of its common stock for an aggregate price of $604 million.
Since January 2024, ADT repurchased $846 million in shares.
In March 2026, ADT authorized a new three-year share repurchase program of $1.5 billion.


Share Issuance

While no large-scale share issuances for capital raising were identified, employee stock options were granted in March 2026, including 4,793,066 options to the CEO and 445,103 options to an EVP.
The number of shares outstanding declined by 8.72% year-over-year to 0.883 billion by Q3 2025, indicating that share repurchases have largely offset any issuances.


Inbound Investments

No significant third-party inbound investments (such as a private equity firm or strategic partner injecting equity) with specific dollar amounts were found in the last 3-5 years, beyond a strategic partnership with State Farm.


Outbound Investments

In February 2026, ADT acquired Origin AI to integrate ambient sensing capabilities into its offerings.
In December 2023, ADT completed a strategic bulk purchase of approximately 57,000 customer accounts for $89 million cash.
ADT anticipates allocating more capital to mergers and acquisitions in the future.


Capital Expenditures

In Q4 2025, ADT Inc. invested $50.1 million in capital expenditures.
For 2026, ADT plans to invest roughly $50 million across product, service, and go-to-market initiatives.
Capital expenditures are defined to include accounts purchased through dealer networks or third parties, subscriber system asset expenditures, and purchases of property and equipment.



	
		
			
				
					
					 Interactive Breakdown
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				 Better Bets vs. ADT (ADT)
				
					By Industry
					By Sector
					All Other Sectors
					Sector Best Bets
				
				
					
				
					
						INDUSTRY: Specialized Consumer Services
					
			
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S 
							(Values for ADT: 3.1% | 1.1x)
						
						
				
						
							ASPS (4.9% | 0.4x)
							Altisource Portfolio Solutions
						
					
						
							TRNR (205.0% | 0.0x)
							Interactive Strength
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 3.3%)
						
						
				
						
							DASH (31.0%)
							DoorDash
						
					
						
							FTDR (12.1%)
							Frontdoor
						
					
						
							BFAM (9.2%)
							Bright Horizons Family Solutions
						
					
						
							HRB (5.4%)
							H&R Block
						
					
						
							MCW (5.0%)
							Mister Car Wash
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 3.1%)
						
						
				
						
							DASH (27.2%)
							DoorDash
						
					
						
							BFAM (12.2%)
							Bright Horizons Family Solutions
						
					
						
							FTDR (8.1%)
							Frontdoor
						
					
						
							MCW (6.6%)
							Mister Car Wash
						
					
						
							HRB (3.9%)
							H&R Block
						
					
					
						
							Higher Total Yield 
							(Value for ADT: 14.5%)
						
						
				
						
							RGS (165.7%)
							Regis
						
					
						
							HRB (19.0%)
							H&R Block
						
					
					
				
					
						SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary
					
			
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S 
							(Values for ADT: 3.1% | 1.1x)
						
						
				
						
							GM (4.8% | 0.4x)
							General Motors
						
					
						
							F (4.8% | 0.3x)
							Ford Motor
						
					
						
							CPNG (18.3% | 0.8x)
							Coupang
						
					
						
							ARMK (12.6% | 0.7x)
							Aramark
						
					
						
							GPC (3.1% | 0.5x)
							Genuine Parts
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc 
							(Values for ADT: 3.1% | 4.2x)
						
						
				
						
							GPI (10.9% | 3.9x)
							Group 1 Automotive
						
					
						
							ABG (6.0% | 3.6x)
							Asbury Automotive
						
					
						
							UPBD (5.0% | 4.1x)
							Upbound
						
					
						
							KLC (13.4% | 3.1x)
							KinderCare Learning Companies
						
					
						
							XPOF (5.1% | 3.4x)
							Xponential Fitness
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 3.3%)
						
						
				
						
							BKNG (15.0%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							AMZN (14.2%)
							Amazon.com
						
					
						
							HD (7.5%)
							Home Depot
						
					
						
							TJX (7.1%)
							TJX Companies
						
					
						
							MCD (6.8%)
							McDonald's
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 3.1%)
						
						
				
						
							BKNG (15.2%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							AMZN (12.3%)
							Amazon.com
						
					
						
							TJX (6.5%)
							TJX Companies
						
					
						
							MCD (5.5%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							TSLA (4.5%)
							Tesla
						
					
					
						
							Higher Op Mgn LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 25.6%)
						
						
				
						
							MCD (46.0%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							BKNG (34.3%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							YUM (30.5%)
							Yum Brands
						
					
						
							RCL (27.9%)
							Royal Caribbean
						
					
						
							GRMN (26.5%)
							Garmin
						
					
					
						
							Higher CFO/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 40.0%)
						
						
				
						
							WINA (49.1%)
							Winmark
						
					
						
							VENU (42.7%)
							Venu
						
					
						
							MELI (41.9%)
							MercadoLibre
						
					
						
							VIK (40.8%)
							Viking
						
					
					
						
							Higher FCF/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 29.1%)
						
						
				
						
							MELI (37.3%)
							MercadoLibre
						
					
						
							DUOL (36.9%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							ABNB (36.1%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							BKNG (32.6%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							SYM (29.7%)
							Symbotic
						
					
					
						
							Higher Total Yield 
							(Value for ADT: 14.5%)
						
						
				
						
							DAN (33.0%)
							Dana
						
					
						
							BYD (30.5%)
							Boyd Gaming
						
					
						
							BBWI (23.6%)
							Bath & Body Works
						
					
						
							HRB (19.0%)
							H&R Block
						
					
						
							M (17.2%)
							Macy's
						
					
					
				
					
						All Other Sectors
					
			
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S 
							(Values for ADT: 3.1% | 1.1x)
						
						
				
						
							UNH (10.2% | 0.8x)
							UnitedHealth
						
					
						
							CVS (7.2% | 0.3x)
							CVS Health
						
					
						
							MCK (13.4% | 0.2x)
							McKesson
						
					
						
							ELV (7.7% | 0.4x)
							Elevance Health
						
					
						
							CI (15.2% | 0.3x)
							Cigna
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc 
							(Values for ADT: 3.1% | 4.2x)
						
						
				
						
							RCI (13.1% | 3.8x)
							Rogers Communications
						
					
						
							JEF (17.2% | 2.4x)
							Jefferies Financial
						
					
						
							SNEX (35.1% | 3.4x)
							StoneX
						
					
						
							BTG (31.3% | 3.7x)
							B2Gold
						
					
						
							BIPC (25.5% | 2.2x)
							Brookfield Infrastructure
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 3.3%)
						
						
				
						
							NVDA (65.5%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							AVGO (25.2%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							MSFT (17.9%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							GOOGL (17.5%)
							Alphabet
						
					
						
							AAPL (12.8%)
							Apple
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 3.1%)
						
						
				
						
							NVDA (101.8%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							AVGO (26.2%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							MSFT (15.3%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							GOOGL (14.1%)
							Alphabet
						
					
						
							AAPL (5.6%)
							Apple
						
					
					
						
							Higher Op Mgn LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 25.6%)
						
						
				
						
							NVDA (60.4%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							MSFT (46.8%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							AVGO (41.5%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							GOOGL (32.7%)
							Alphabet
						
					
						
							AAPL (32.6%)
							Apple
						
					
					
						
							Higher CFO/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 40.0%)
						
						
				
						
							META (57.7%)
							Meta Platforms
						
					
						
							MSFT (53.5%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							NVDA (47.6%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							AVGO (43.5%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							GOOGL (41.3%)
							Alphabet
						
					
					
						
							Higher FCF/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 29.1%)
						
						
				
						
							MA (50.3%)
							Mastercard
						
					
						
							V (49.2%)
							Visa
						
					
						
							NVDA (44.8%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							AVGO (42.3%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							ABBV (31.8%)
							AbbVie
						
					
					
						
							Higher Total Yield 
							(Value for ADT: 14.5%)
						
						
				
						
							CMCSA (26.6%)
							Comcast
						
					
						
							ALL (23.4%)
							Allstate
						
					
						
							PGR (16.8%)
							Progressive
						
					
						
							CNQ (15.7%)
							Canadian Natural Resources
						
					
						
							VZ (14.8%)
							Verizon Communications
						
					
					
				
					
						Best Bets in Consumer Discretionary
					
			What You Pay
					
						
							P/EBIT 
							(Value for ADT: 4.3x)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (30.6x)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (33.5x)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (13.4x)
							Booking
						
					
						
							ETSY (13.5x)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							PRDO (9.1x)
							Perdoceo Education
						
					
						
							LOPE (13.4x)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							MCRI (15.3x)
							Monarch Casino & Resort
						
					
						
							GRMN (22.0x)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							DECK (10.0x)
							Deckers Outdoor
						
					
						
							ALSN (11.6x)
							Allison Transmission
						
					
					
						
							P/E 
							(Value for ADT: 8.9x)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (31.6x)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (12.4x)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (19.8x)
							Booking
						
					
						
							ETSY (19.6x)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							PRDO (12.5x)
							Perdoceo Education
						
					
						
							LOPE (19.2x)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							MCRI (19.3x)
							Monarch Casino & Resort
						
					
						
							GRMN (25.1x)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							DECK (13.0x)
							Deckers Outdoor
						
					
						
							ALSN (17.9x)
							Allison Transmission
						
					
What You Get
					
						
							Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 3.1%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (13.3%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (39.6%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (15.2%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							ETSY (2.9%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							PRDO (6.8%)
							Perdoceo Education
						
					
						
							LOPE (7.1%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							MCRI (4.6%)
							Monarch Casino & Resort
						
					
						
							GRMN (15.6%)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							DECK (14.7%)
							Deckers Outdoor
						
					
						
							ALSN (8.9%)
							Allison Transmission
						
					
					
						
							Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 3.3%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (12.6%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (35.5%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (15.0%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							ETSY (3.2%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							PRDO (17.7%)
							Perdoceo Education
						
					
						
							LOPE (7.4%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							MCRI (5.8%)
							Monarch Casino & Resort
						
					
						
							GRMN (15.7%)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							DECK (9.2%)
							Deckers Outdoor
						
					
						
							ALSN (14.0%)
							Allison Transmission
						
					
					
						
							Rev Chg Q 
							(Value for ADT: 0.9%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (17.9%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (26.5%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (16.2%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							ETSY (3.1%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							PRDO (4.1%)
							Perdoceo Education
						
					
						
							LOPE (6.7%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							MCRI (8.9%)
							Monarch Casino & Resort
						
					
						
							GRMN (14.2%)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							DECK (7.1%)
							Deckers Outdoor
						
					
						
							ALSN (83.6%)
							Allison Transmission
						
					
					
						
							FCF/Rev 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 25.3%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (38.7%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (35.0%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (32.9%)
							Booking
						
					
						
							ETSY (24.3%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							PRDO (23.9%)
							Perdoceo Education
						
					
						
							LOPE (22.6%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							MCRI (21.4%)
							Monarch Casino & Resort
						
					
						
							GRMN (21.0%)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							DECK (20.8%)
							Deckers Outdoor
						
					
						
							ALSN (19.4%)
							Allison Transmission
						
					
			
				[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 14%, alpha of 2.9%, and sharpe of 0.61
			
		
				
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Latest Trefis Analyses
				 Title Date
0 DASHBOARDS  
1 ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance 03/10/2026
2 ADT Stock (-11%): Flat 2026 Guidance Misses Wall Street Expectations 03/03/2026
3 ADT Earnings Notes 12/28/2026
4 How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go? 10/17/2025
5 ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment? 08/18/2025
6 ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment? 08/18/2025
7 How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? 08/13/2025
8 ARTICLES  
9 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low 03/05/2026
10 Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High 07/25/2025
11 How ADT’s Stock Is Benefiting From Its Planned Divestment Of Canadian Business 10/23/2019
 Title
0 DASHBOARDS
1 ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance
2 ADT Stock (-11%): Flat 2026 Guidance Misses Wall Street Expectations
3 ADT Earnings Notes
4 How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?
5 ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment?
6 ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment?
7 How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
8 ARTICLES
9 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low
10 Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
11 How ADT’s Stock Is Benefiting From Its Planned Divestment Of Canadian Business
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ADT.
Unique Key Date Ticker Company Category Trade Strategy 6M Fwd Rtn 12M Fwd Rtn 12M Max DD
FUN_4302026_Short_Squeeze 04302026 FUN Six Flags Entertainment Special Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MGM_4242026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2 04242026 MGM MGM Resorts International Insider Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap -1.5% -1.5% -1.5%
WEN_4242026_Short_Squeeze 04242026 WEN Wendy's Special Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. -2.5% -2.5% -5.3%
WHR_4102026_Short_Squeeze 04102026 WHR Whirlpool Special Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. -0.8% -0.8% -4.8%
SKY_4022026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield 04022026 SKY Champion Homes Dip Buy DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin 3.1% 3.1% -1.2%
ADT_5312023_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2 05312023 ADT ADT Insider Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap 3.7% 27.4% -0.8%
ADT_10312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE 10312020 ADT ADT Dip Buy DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap 40.8% 28.7% 0.0%
ADT_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE 12312018 ADT ADT Dip Buy DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap 4.0% 45.9% -26.8%
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
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GAU Galiano Gold 0.6 -11.8% -8.3%
FRMI Fermi 4.0 -11.7% -18.6%
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Ticker Company Mkt Cap (B) 1W Rtn YTD Rtn
FCEL FuelCell Energy 1.0 55.9% 192.2%
AEVA Aeva Technologies 1.2 50.9% 54.2%
SEDG SolarEdge Technologies 3.7 49.5% 114.1%
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LMRI Lumexa Imaging 0.7 -32.5% -62.0%
YSS York Space Systems 3.0 -31.0% -28.5%
BTGO BitGo 1.0 -29.3% -51.9%
CERT Certara 0.7 -29.0% -49.1%
OPTU Optimum Communications 0.4 -28.8% -51.3%
REZI Resideo Technologies 4.2 -28.7% -19.3%
NABL N-able 0.6 -27.7% -54.7%
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MXL MaxLinear 8.1 295.5% 429.8%
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XMTR Xometry 4.4 83.5% 44.8%
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EMBC Embecta 0.2 -67.0% -73.2%
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FWRD Forward Air 0.3 -58.0% -65.0%
CABO Cable One 0.3 -54.6% -56.8%
PSIX Power Solutions International 0.9 -53.0% -32.2%
TRDA Entrada Therapeutics 0.3 -52.9% -37.9%
OPTU Optimum Communications 0.4 -47.4% -51.3%
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				 Peer Comparisons
Peers to compare with: 
				
				Financials
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
Mkt Price 6.83 143.08 213.24 125.65 42.52 28.35 84.09
Mkt Cap 5.6 87.6 135.3 10.8 2.1 4.3 8.2
Rev LTM 5,140 24,433 36,763 4,159 1,038 7,614 6,377
Op Inc LTM 1,315 3,373 6,319 858 136 633 1,087
FCF LTM 1,495 1,366 - 683 168 -1,338 683
FCF 3Y Avg 1,257 1,873 - 606 169 -237 606
CFO LTM 2,056 1,738 - 781 180 -1,217 781
CFO 3Y Avg 1,919 2,295 - 697 183 -131 697
				Growth & Margins
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
Rev Chg LTM 3.3% 5.1% 6.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg 3.1% 4.8% 0.9% 6.2% 7.0% 6.1% 5.5%
Rev Chg Q 0.9% 8.2% 2.4% 9.7% 11.0% 8.0% 8.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 2.3% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM 6.5% 2.7% -3.4% 6.6% 13.5% 9.7% 6.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg 14.3% 29.1% -2.5% 10.3% 40.0% 1.2% 12.3%
Op Mgn LTM 25.6% 13.8% 17.2% 20.6% 13.1% 8.3% 15.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg 25.5% 11.8% 18.3% 20.5% 11.4% 8.7% 15.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM 0.1% 0.6% -0.1% -0.5% -0.1% -0.3% -0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM 40.0% 7.1% - 18.8% 17.3% -16.0% 17.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg 38.8% 10.1% - 18.0% 19.1% -1.1% 18.0%
FCF/Rev LTM 29.1% 5.6% - 16.4% 16.2% -17.6% 16.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg 25.3% 8.2% - 15.6% 17.6% -2.7% 15.6%
				Valuation
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
Mkt Cap 5.6 87.6 135.3 10.8 2.1 4.3 8.2
P/S 1.1 3.6 3.7 2.6 2.0 0.6 2.3
P/Op Inc 4.2 26.0 21.4 12.6 15.5 6.8 14.1
P/EBIT 4.3 32.3 23.0 12.5 11.9 -16.5 12.2
P/E 8.9 24.8 33.0 17.1 16.4 -8.6 16.8
P/CFO 2.7 50.4 - 13.9 11.7 -3.5 11.7
Total Yield 14.5% 4.6% 4.7% 7.5% 6.1% -11.6% 5.4%
Dividend Yield 3.3% 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg 20.8% 3.4% - 5.1% 6.2% -1.6% 5.1%
D/E 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3
Net D/E 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.2
				Returns
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
1M Rtn -3.7% 4.0% -6.5% -11.2% -6.8% -27.7% -6.6%
3M Rtn -11.0% 3.1% -10.7% -29.7% -8.3% -20.9% -10.9%
6M Rtn -16.0% 21.3% 8.3% -21.5% -15.5% -14.1% -14.8%
12M Rtn -18.2% 48.1% 3.7% -12.6% -28.7% 34.1% -4.4%
3Y Rtn 23.8% 144.7% 23.1% 20.4% -15.7% 65.4% 23.4%
1M Excs Rtn -8.9% -1.2% -11.7% -16.4% -12.0% -32.9% -11.9%
3M Excs Rtn -19.4% -5.3% -19.1% -38.1% -16.7% -29.2% -19.2%
6M Excs Rtn -24.7% 9.3% -0.6% -33.0% -23.4% -19.0% -21.2%
12M Excs Rtn -41.9% 24.8% -18.8% -35.5% -54.8% 7.5% -27.1%
3Y Excs Rtn -57.5% 64.4% -56.2% -57.8% -90.3% -6.4% -56.8%
				Comparison Analyses
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				 FDIC Bank Data
				Capital & Deposits
Assets
Loans
				
					Bank Capital
nullBank Deposits
null
					Bank Assets
null
					Bank Loans
null
				
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 FDA Approved Drugs Data
				Expand for Morenull
				Collapse to Previewnull
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Financials
				Annual
Quarterly
				$ Mil | FY: 12/31 LTM 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
Period End 3/31/2026 12/31/2025 12/31/2024 12/31/2023 12/31/2022 12/31/2021 12/31/2020
Filing Date 4/30/2026 3/2/2026 2/27/2025 2/28/2024 2/28/2023 3/1/2022 2/25/2021

Key Financials              
Total Revenue 5,140 5,129 4,898 4,653 4,382 4,203 5,315
EBITDA 2,678 2,660 2,601 2,563 2,361 1,896 1,843
Operating Income 1,315 1,309 1,208 1,179 735 49 161
Net Income 624 596 501 463 133 -341 -632
EPS 0.77 0.72 0.56 0.51 0.15 -0.41 -0.82

Growth Rates              
Total Revenue Growth 3.3% 4.7% 5.3% 6.2% 4.3% -20.9% 3.7%
EBITDA Growth 2.5% 2.3% 1.5% 8.5% 24.5% 2.9% -11.7%
Operating Income Growth 6.5% 8.3% 2.5% 60.4% 1401.6% -69.6% -52.7%
Net Income Growth 13.5% 18.9% 8.2% 249.0% 138.9% 46.1% -49.0%

Margins              
EBITDA Margin 52.1% 51.9% 53.1% 55.1% 53.9% 45.1% 34.7%
Operating Income Margin 25.6% 25.5% 24.7% 25.3% 16.8% 1.2% 3.0%
Net Income Margin 12.1% 11.6% 10.2% 10.0% 3.0% -8.1% -11.9%

Cash & Debt              
Total Cash 119 81 96 15 257 24 205
Total Debt 7,669 7,690 7,707 7,826 9,825 9,730 9,523
Net Debt / (Cash) 7,550 7,609 7,611 7,811 9,568 9,706 9,318

Cash Flows              
Net Cash from Operations 2,056 1,884 1,885 1,658 1,888 1,650 1,367
Free Cash from Operations 1,495 1,312 1,198 851 977 787 791

Returns to Shareholders              
Dividends 183 187 182 129 127 116 109
Share Repurchases 326 607 241 -0 1,200 -0 0
$ Mil | FY: 12/31 2026Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2024Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2023Q4 2023Q3 2023Q2
Period End 3/31/2026 12/31/2025 9/30/2025 6/30/2025 3/31/2025 12/31/2024 9/30/2024 6/30/2024 3/31/2024 12/31/2023 9/30/2023 6/30/2023
Filing Date 4/30/2026 3/2/2026 11/4/2025 7/24/2025 4/24/2025 2/27/2025 10/24/2024 8/1/2024 4/25/2024 2/28/2024 11/2/2023 8/8/2023

Key Financials Quarterly                        
Total Revenue 1,279 1,276 1,298 1,287 1,267 1,260 1,244 1,205 1,190 1,172 1,180 1,168
Ebitda 671 666 659 682 654 649 679 630 642 633 637 678
Operating Income 325 333 315 342 319 305 326 284 292 275 316 340
Net Income 168 145 145 165 140 190 127 92 92 576 -86 92
EPS 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.16 0.21 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.63 -0.09 0.10

Key Financials TTM                        
Total Revenue TTM 5,140 5,129 5,113 5,059 4,976 4,898 4,810 4,747 4,710 4,798 4,156 4,266
Ebitda TTM 2,678 2,660 2,644 2,664 2,613 2,601 2,584 2,542 2,590 2,304 2,629 2,244
Operating Income TTM 1,315 1,309 1,282 1,293 1,235 1,208 1,178 1,168 1,224 1,163 1,146 1,038
Net Income TTM 624 596 641 623 550 501 887 674 673 463 38 -37

Growth Rates Quarterly                        
Total Revenue Growth 0.9% 1.2% 4.4% 6.8% 6.5% 7.5% 5.4% 3.1% -6.9% 120.8% -8.5% -27.0%
EBITDA Growth 2.7% 2.5% -3.0% 8.2% 1.8% 2.6% 6.6% -7.1% 80.2% -33.9% 152.0% 11.0%
Operating Income Growth 1.9% 8.9% -3.5% 20.3% 9.3% 11.1% 3.2% -16.5% 26.1% 6.8% 51.9% 64.7%
Net Income Growth 20.1% -23.5% 14.1% 78.8% 53.2% -67.0% 247.4% 0.2% 177.0% 282.0% 46.5% 0.8%

Margins Quarterly                        
EBITDA Margin 52.5% 52.2% 50.8% 53.0% 51.6% 51.5% 54.6% 52.3% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 58.1%
Operating Income Margin 25.5% 26.1% 24.3% 26.6% 25.2% 24.2% 26.2% 23.6% 24.6% 23.4% 26.8% 29.1%
Net Income Margin 13.2% 11.4% 11.2% 12.8% 11.1% 15.1% 10.2% 7.7% 7.7% 49.1% -7.3% 7.9%

Cash & Debt                        
Total Cash 119 81 63 45 4 96 95 38 4 15 239 146
Total Debt 7,669 7,690 7,806 7,815 7,819 7,707 7,721 7,744 7,906 7,826 9,684 9,697
Net Debt / (Cash) 7,550 7,609 7,743 7,770 7,816 7,611 7,626 7,706 7,902 7,811 9,445 9,550

Cash Flows Quarterly                        
FCF from Operations 638 374 480 564 467 460 498 563 364 412 446 493

Cash Flows TTM                        
FCF from Operations TTM 2,056 1,884 1,970 1,988 1,988 1,885 1,837 1,785 1,715 1,658 1,813 1,865

Returns to Shareholders Quarterly                        
Dividends 45 45 46 47 49 50 50 50 32 32 32 32
Share Repurchases 116 -0 112 99 397 147 -0 -0 93 -0 -0 -0

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly                        
ROIC 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 7.0% 6.4% 7.2% 6.3% 5.1% 5.7% 5.0% 5.9% 5.9%

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM                        
ROIC TTM 6.7% 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.6% 6.0% 6.1% 5.9% 5.5%
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Monitoring and related services 4,293 4,179      
Security installation, product, and other 605 474      
Consumer and Small Business (CSB)     4,382 4,146 4,325
Solar     786 47  
Commercial       1,114 990
Total 4,898 4,653 5,168 5,307 5,315



			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Price Behavior
				Behavior Stats
Betas Matrix
Behavior vs Other Asset Classes
				
					Price Behavior
Market Price $6.83  
Market Cap ($ Bil) 5.6  
First Trading Date 09/10/2014  
Distance from 52W High -21.6%  
    50 Days 200 Days
DMA Price $6.83 $7.84
DMA Trend down down
Distance from DMA -0.0% -12.9%
  3M 1YR
Volatility 36.0% 27.1%
Downside Capture 151.02 129.75
Upside Capture 61.06 70.38
Correlation (SPY) 46.5% 44.8%
					
ADT Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026


  1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y
Beta 0.97 1.12 1.10 0.97 0.94 0.92
Up Beta 0.99 1.70 1.54 1.16 1.07 0.80
Down Beta 0.65 1.13 0.93 0.87 0.84 0.72
Up Capture 105% 44% 69% 62% 62% 102%
Bmk +ve Days 15 22 31 66 141 428
Stock +ve Days 12 21 34 64 128 387
Down Capture 257% 129% 121% 114% 110% 105%
Bmk -ve Days 4 18 30 56 108 321
Stock -ve Days 9 21 28 56 117 343


[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
					
						
							1Y
							5Y
							10Y
						
						
							Based On 1-Year Data
 Annualized
Return Annualized
Volatility Sharpe
Ratio Correlation
with ADT
ADT -16.2% 27.1% -0.67 -
Sector ETF (XLY) 8.7% 18.1% 0.32 45.4%
Equity (SPY) 27.4% 12.1% 1.71 45.3%
Gold (GLD) 42.5% 26.8% 1.30 6.0%
Commodities (DBC) 45.4% 18.5% 1.88 -23.3%
Real Estate (VNQ) 11.5% 13.5% 0.56 39.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) -23.7% 41.8% -0.54 15.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
							Based On 5-Year Data
 Annualized
Return Annualized
Volatility Sharpe
Ratio Correlation
with ADT
ADT -4.1% 37.9% -0.02 -
Sector ETF (XLY) 6.8% 23.8% 0.25 46.0%
Equity (SPY) 13.6% 17.1% 0.63 46.8%
Gold (GLD) 19.4% 17.9% 0.88 3.6%
Commodities (DBC) 10.9% 19.4% 0.45 10.5%
Real Estate (VNQ) 2.9% 18.8% 0.06 45.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 7.2% 55.9% 0.34 19.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
							Based On 10-Year Data
 Annualized
Return Annualized
Volatility Sharpe
Ratio Correlation
with ADT
ADT -2.5% 48.3% 0.11 -
Sector ETF (XLY) 12.6% 22.0% 0.52 40.5%
Equity (SPY) 15.5% 17.9% 0.74 41.6%
Gold (GLD) 13.0% 16.0% 0.67 2.4%
Commodities (DBC) 8.3% 17.9% 0.38 16.8%
Real Estate (VNQ) 5.0% 20.7% 0.21 37.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 67.4% 66.9% 1.06 11.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
						
					
				
			
		
		
			
				
				 Short Interest
Short Interest: As Of Date 4302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity 30.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 4152026 4.2%
Average Daily Volume 7.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest 4.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity 814.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares 3.7%
			
		
	

	
		
			
				 Returns Analyses
 Title
0 How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?
1 ADT Stock Return Comparison
2 [10/14/2021] ADT (ADT) Stock Price Forecast: AI Forecasts ADT Stock Price To Be Around $8.75 In A Month (Up 2.4%)
3 ADT (ADT) Stock Return: AI Predicts ADT Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Earnings Returns History
				Expand for More  Forward Returns
Earnings Date 1D Returns 5D Returns 21D Returns
3/2/2026 -11.2% -18.3% -18.6%
11/4/2025 -8.1% -7.5% -7.7%
7/24/2025 2.8% -0.8% 2.5%
2/27/2025 7.8% 2.3% 10.1%
10/24/2024 17.6% 6.5% 9.0%
8/1/2024 -8.9% -8.9% -5.4%
2/28/2024 10.1% 13.6% 3.9%
11/2/2023 16.5% 5.6% 10.8%
... 
SUMMARY STATS      
# Positive 14 12 11
# Negative 5 7 8
Median Positive 4.4% 4.6% 10.1%
Median Negative -8.9% -7.5% -6.6%
Max Positive 56.6% 41.7% 23.7%
Max Negative -12.5% -18.3% -18.6%
				Collapse to Preview  Forward Returns
Earnings Date 1D Returns 5D Returns 21D Returns
3/2/2026 -11.2% -18.3% -18.6%
11/4/2025 -8.1% -7.5% -7.7%
7/24/2025 2.8% -0.8% 2.5%
2/27/2025 7.8% 2.3% 10.1%
10/24/2024 17.6% 6.5% 9.0%
8/1/2024 -8.9% -8.9% -5.4%
2/28/2024 10.1% 13.6% 3.9%
11/2/2023 16.5% 5.6% 10.8%
8/8/2023 2.4% 4.5% -2.3%
2/28/2023 -4.1% -1.8% -10.1%
10/13/2022 1.2% 4.7% 10.8%
8/4/2022 5.3% 8.6% -1.0%
3/1/2022 2.2% 0.1% 7.9%
11/9/2021 12.1% -0.6% -3.8%
8/4/2021 -12.5% -13.6% -17.3%
5/5/2021 3.4% 3.1% 19.9%
1/19/2021 1.0% 1.4% 7.2%
11/5/2020 0.0% 1.4% 12.6%
8/3/2020 56.6% 41.7% 23.7%
SUMMARY STATS      
# Positive 14 12 11
# Negative 5 7 8
Median Positive 4.4% 4.6% 10.1%
Median Negative -8.9% -7.5% -6.6%
Max Positive 56.6% 41.7% 23.7%
Max Negative -12.5% -18.3% -18.6%
			
		
		
			
				
				 SEC Filings
				Expand for MoreReport Date Filing Date Filing
03/31/2026 04/30/2026 10-Q
12/31/2025 03/02/2026 10-K
09/30/2025 11/04/2025 10-Q
06/30/2025 07/24/2025 10-Q
03/31/2025 04/24/2025 10-Q
12/31/2024 02/27/2025 10-K
09/30/2024 10/24/2024 10-Q
06/30/2024 08/01/2024 10-Q
03/31/2024 04/25/2024 10-Q
12/31/2023 02/28/2024 10-K
09/30/2023 11/02/2023 10-Q
06/30/2023 08/08/2023 10-Q
03/31/2023 05/02/2023 10-Q
12/31/2022 02/28/2023 10-K
09/30/2022 11/03/2022 10-Q
06/30/2022 08/04/2022 10-Q
				Collapse to PreviewReport Date Filing Date Filing
03/31/2026 04/30/2026 10-Q
12/31/2025 03/02/2026 10-K
09/30/2025 11/04/2025 10-Q
06/30/2025 07/24/2025 10-Q
03/31/2025 04/24/2025 10-Q
12/31/2024 02/27/2025 10-K
09/30/2024 10/24/2024 10-Q
06/30/2024 08/01/2024 10-Q
03/31/2024 04/25/2024 10-Q
12/31/2023 02/28/2024 10-K
09/30/2023 11/02/2023 10-Q
06/30/2023 08/08/2023 10-Q
03/31/2023 05/02/2023 10-Q
12/31/2022 02/28/2023 10-K
09/30/2022 11/03/2022 10-Q
06/30/2022 08/04/2022 10-Q
03/31/2022 05/06/2022 10-Q
12/31/2021 03/01/2022 10-K
09/30/2021 11/09/2021 10-Q
06/30/2021 08/04/2021 10-Q
03/31/2021 05/05/2021 10-Q
12/31/2020 02/25/2021 10-K
09/30/2020 11/05/2020 10-Q
06/30/2020 08/05/2020 10-Q
03/31/2020 05/07/2020 10-Q
12/31/2019 03/10/2020 10-K
09/30/2019 11/12/2019 10-Q
06/30/2019 08/06/2019 10-Q
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
				Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
				Forward Guidance Guidance Change
Metric Low Mid High % Chg % Delta Change Prior
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth   20.0%       Higher New 
2026 Revenue Growth   0.0%       Same New 
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth   0.0%       Same New 
				Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
				Forward Guidance Guidance Change
Metric Low Mid High % Chg % Delta Change Prior
2025 Total Revenue 5.08 Bil 5.12 Bil 5.17 Bil 0.5%   Raised Guidance: 5.10 Bil for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDA 2.67 Bil 2.69 Bil 2.71 Bil 1.5%   Raised Guidance: 2.65 Bil for 2025
2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow 800.00 Mil 850.00 Mil 900.00 Mil 30.8%   Raised Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2025
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Insider Activity
				Expand for More# Owner Title Holding Action Filing Date Price Shares Transacted
Value Value of
Held Shares Form
1 Ahmad, Fawad EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off. Direct Buy 5122026 6.75 7,500 50,625 2,040,752 Form
2 Khan, Omar EVP, Chief Business Officer Direct Buy 5122026 6.88 7,280 50,080 50,080 Form
3 Houston, Daniel Joseph   Direct Buy 5122026 6.87 36,450 250,412 513,960 Form
4 Scott, David A EVP, Chief People & Admin. Off Direct Buy 3092026 6.72 7,300 49,056 49,056 Form
5 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See footnote Sell 7302025 8.31 71,000,000 590,010,000 936,124,541 Form
				Collapse to Preview# Owner Title Holding Action Filing Date Price Shares Transacted
Value Value of
Held Shares Form
1 Ahmad, Fawad EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off. Direct Buy 5122026 6.75 7,500 50,625 2,040,752 Form
2 Khan, Omar EVP, Chief Business Officer Direct Buy 5122026 6.88 7,280 50,080 50,080 Form
3 Houston, Daniel Joseph   Direct Buy 5122026 6.87 36,450 250,412 513,960 Form
4 Scott, David A EVP, Chief People & Admin. Off Direct Buy 3092026 6.72 7,300 49,056 49,056 Form
5 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See footnote Sell 7302025 8.31 71,000,000 590,010,000 936,124,541 Form
6 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See footnote Sell 7302025 8.31 71,000,000 590,010,000 936,124,541 Form
7 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See Footnote Sell 6062025 8.27 45,000,000 372,150,000 1,518,788,527 Form
8 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See Footnote Sell 6062025 8.27 45,000,000 372,150,000 1,518,788,527 Form
9 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See Footnote Sell 5142025 8.02 50,000,000 401,000,000 1,833,775,935 Form
10 Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc See Footnote Sell 5142025 8.02 50,000,000 401,000,000 1,833,775,935 Form
			
		
	
	
	
		
			
				
				 ADT Trade Sentinel
				
				
					
						
					
					
						
					
					
						
					
					
						
					
				
				
				
				
				
					
						
							
								
									
										Stock Conviction									
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									 	CONVICTION RATIONALE
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								Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the 
								Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
							

							
								
									
										INVESTMENT THESIS
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											Supporting Evidence:
											
												
											
										
									
								
								
								
									
										PRIMARY RISK
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								 Key KPI Watchlist
								 
									
										
											
												
													KPI
													Threshold
													Rationale
												
											
											
												
											
										
									
								 
							

						
					

					
						
							
								Core Investment Debate
								
							

							
								
									
										BULL VIEW
										
									
								
								
									
										CORE TENSION
										
										
										PREVAILING SENTIMENT
										
										
									
								
								
									
										BEAR VIEW
										
									
								
							

							
								Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
								
									
										
											
												
													Timeline
													Event & Metric To Watch
												
											
											
												
											
										
									
								
							

							
								Key Events in Last 6 Months
								
									
										
											
												
													Date
													Event
													Stock Impact
												
											
											
												
											
										
									
								
							

							
								Risk Management
								
									
										
											 Position Sizing
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											 Diversification Alternatives
											
												
											
										
									
								
							
						
					

					
						
							How Is The Market Pricing ADT?

							
								
									
								
							

							
								
									
								
							

							
								
									
										 What will confirm the thesis
										
									
								

								
									
										 What will damage the thesis
										
									
								

								
									
										 Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
										
									
								
							

							
								Repricing Catalyst
								
							

							
								What ADT Makes & Who Pays

								
									
										TTM figures based on 
									
								
								
								
									
								
							

							
								ADT Evolution: Price Return by Era
								
								
								

								
									
										
									
								
							

						
					

					
						
						
							
							
								
								

								
									
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									Price Structure & Trend
									 · 
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											Current
											$
											
											
										
										
											20D SMA
											$
											
											Below
										
										
											50D SMA
											$
											Slope: %
											Below
										
										
											200D SMA
											$
											Slope: %
											Below
										
									

									
										✕
										 —  trading days ago
									

									
										
											52W High
											$
										
										
											From 52W High
											%
										
										
											All-Time High
											$
										
										
											From ATH
											%
										
									
									
										
											52W Low
											$
										
										
											From 52W Low
											%
										
									
								
							

							
								
									2
									Momentum
									
									▾
								
								
									
										↑
										
									

									
										
											5D
											%
											
										
										
											20D
											%
											
										
										
											63D
											%
											
										
										
											126D
											%
											
										
										
											252D
											%
											
										
									
								
							

							
								
									3
									Relative Strength vs. SPY
									
									▾
								
								
									
										↑
										
									

									
										
											20D
											
											%
										
										
											63D
											
											%
										
										
											126D
											
											%
										
										
											252D
											
											%
										
									

									
										
											RS Trend
											%
										
										
											RS Character
											
										
									
								
							

							
								
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									Institutional Footprint & Volume
									
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									How the Verdict Is Derived
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								Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.
							
						
					
					
				
			
		
	
	
	
		
			
				
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Pillar	Score
① Structure	0
② Vol / Mom	0
③ Catalyst	0

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance	03/10/2026
2	ADT Stock (-11%): Flat 2026 Guidance Misses Wall Street Expectations	03/03/2026
3	ADT Earnings Notes	12/28/2026
4	How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?	10/17/2025
5	ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment?	08/18/2025
6	ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment?	08/18/2025
7	How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?	08/13/2025
8	ARTICLES
9	Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low	03/05/2026
10	Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High	07/25/2025
11	How ADT’s Stock Is Benefiting From Its Planned Divestment Of Canadian Business	10/23/2019

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
FUN_4302026_Short_Squeeze	04302026	FUN	Six Flags Entertainment	Special	Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MGM_4242026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2	04242026	MGM	MGM Resorts International	Insider	Insider Buys \| Low D/EStrong Insider Buying Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	-1.5%	-1.5%	-1.5%
WEN_4242026_Short_Squeeze	04242026	WEN	Wendy's	Special	Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.	-2.5%	-2.5%	-5.3%
WHR_4102026_Short_Squeeze	04102026	WHR	Whirlpool	Special	Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.	-0.8%	-0.8%	-4.8%
SKY_4022026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	04022026	SKY	Champion Homes	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	3.1%	3.1%	-1.2%
ADT_5312023_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2	05312023	ADT	ADT	Insider	Insider Buys \| Low D/EStrong Insider Buying Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	3.7%	27.4%	-0.8%
ADT_10312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE	10312020	ADT	ADT	Dip Buy	DB \| CFO/Rev \| Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap	40.8%	28.7%	0.0%
ADT_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE	12312018	ADT	ADT	Dip Buy	DB \| CFO/Rev \| Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap	4.0%	45.9%	-26.8%

	ADT	JCI	HON	ALLE	ALRM	REZI	Median
Name	ADT	Johnson .	Honeywel.	Allegion	Alarm.com	Resideo .
Mkt Price	6.83	143.08	213.24	125.65	42.52	28.35	84.09
Mkt Cap	5.6	87.6	135.3	10.8	2.1	4.3	8.2
Rev LTM	5,140	24,433	36,763	4,159	1,038	7,614	6,377
Op Inc LTM	1,315	3,373	6,319	858	136	633	1,087
FCF LTM	1,495	1,366	-	683	168	-1,338	683
FCF 3Y Avg	1,257	1,873	-	606	169	-237	606
CFO LTM	2,056	1,738	-	781	180	-1,217	781
CFO 3Y Avg	1,919	2,295	-	697	183	-131	697

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Monitoring and related services	4,293	4,179
Security installation, product, and other	605	474
Consumer and Small Business (CSB)			4,382	4,146	4,325
Solar			786	47
Commercial				1,114	990
Total	4,898	4,653	5,168	5,307	5,315

Market Price	$6.83
Market Cap ($ Bil)	5.6
First Trading Date	09/10/2014
Distance from 52W High	-21.6%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$6.83	$7.84
DMA Trend	down	down
Distance from DMA	-0.0%	-12.9%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	36.0%	27.1%
Downside Capture	151.02	129.75
Upside Capture	61.06	70.38
Correlation (SPY)	46.5%	44.8%

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	0.97	1.12	1.10	0.97	0.94	0.92
Up Beta	0.99	1.70	1.54	1.16	1.07	0.80
Down Beta	0.65	1.13	0.93	0.87	0.84	0.72
Up Capture	105%	44%	69%	62%	62%	102%
Bmk +ve Days	15	22	31	66	141	428
Stock +ve Days	12	21	34	64	128	387
Down Capture	257%	129%	121%	114%	110%	105%
Bmk -ve Days	4	18	30	56	108	321
Stock -ve Days	9	21	28	56	117	343

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ADT
ADT	-16.2%	27.1%	-0.67	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	8.7%	18.1%	0.32	45.4%
Equity (SPY)	27.4%	12.1%	1.71	45.3%
Gold (GLD)	42.5%	26.8%	1.30	6.0%
Commodities (DBC)	45.4%	18.5%	1.88	-23.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)	11.5%	13.5%	0.56	39.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-23.7%	41.8%	-0.54	15.4%

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ADT
ADT	-4.1%	37.9%	-0.02	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	6.8%	23.8%	0.25	46.0%
Equity (SPY)	13.6%	17.1%	0.63	46.8%
Gold (GLD)	19.4%	17.9%	0.88	3.6%
Commodities (DBC)	10.9%	19.4%	0.45	10.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)	2.9%	18.8%	0.06	45.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	7.2%	55.9%	0.34	19.5%

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ADT
ADT	-2.5%	48.3%	0.11	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	12.6%	22.0%	0.52	40.5%
Equity (SPY)	15.5%	17.9%	0.74	41.6%
Gold (GLD)	13.0%	16.0%	0.67	2.4%
Commodities (DBC)	8.3%	17.9%	0.38	16.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.0%	20.7%	0.21	37.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	67.4%	66.9%	1.06	11.1%

Short Interest: As Of Date	4302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	30.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 4152026	4.2%
Average Daily Volume	7.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	4.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity	814.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	3.7%

	Title
0	How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?
1	ADT Stock Return Comparison
2	[10/14/2021] ADT (ADT) Stock Price Forecast: AI Forecasts ADT Stock Price To Be Around $8.75 In A Month (Up 2.4%)
3	ADT (ADT) Stock Return: AI Predicts ADT Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
3/2/2026	-11.2%	-18.3%	-18.6%
11/4/2025	-8.1%	-7.5%	-7.7%
7/24/2025	2.8%	-0.8%	2.5%
2/27/2025	7.8%	2.3%	10.1%
10/24/2024	17.6%	6.5%	9.0%
8/1/2024	-8.9%	-8.9%	-5.4%
2/28/2024	10.1%	13.6%	3.9%
11/2/2023	16.5%	5.6%	10.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	14	12	11
# Negative	5	7	8
Median Positive	4.4%	4.6%	10.1%
Median Negative	-8.9%	-7.5%	-6.6%
Max Positive	56.6%	41.7%	23.7%
Max Negative	-12.5%	-18.3%	-18.6%

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
03/31/2026	04/30/2026	10-Q
12/31/2025	03/02/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/04/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	07/24/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	04/24/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/27/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	10/24/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/01/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	04/25/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	02/28/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/02/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	08/08/2023	10-Q
03/31/2023	05/02/2023	10-Q
12/31/2022	02/28/2023	10-K
09/30/2022	11/03/2022	10-Q
06/30/2022	08/04/2022	10-Q

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth		20.0%				Higher New
2026 Revenue Growth		0.0%				Same New
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth		0.0%				Same New

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Ahmad, Fawad	EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off.	Direct	Buy	5122026	6.75	7,500	50,625	2,040,752	Form
2	Khan, Omar	EVP, Chief Business Officer	Direct	Buy	5122026	6.88	7,280	50,080	50,080	Form
3	Houston, Daniel Joseph		Direct	Buy	5122026	6.87	36,450	250,412	513,960	Form
4	Scott, David A	EVP, Chief People & Admin. Off	Direct	Buy	3092026	6.72	7,300	49,056	49,056	Form
5	Apollo, Management Holdings Gp, Llc		See footnote	Sell	7302025	8.31	71,000,000	590,010,000	936,124,541	Form

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7	FinViz

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (5/17/2026): $6.83 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (5/17/2026): $6.83Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

How Low Can It Go

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

About ADT (ADT)

Key Risks to ADT Inc.

Share Repurchases

Share Issuance

Inbound Investments

Outbound Investments

Capital Expenditures

Interactive Breakdown

Better Bets vs. ADT (ADT)

INDUSTRY: Specialized Consumer Services

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ADT: 3.1% | 1.1x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 3.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 3.1%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ADT: 14.5%)

SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ADT: 3.1% | 1.1x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ADT: 3.1% | 4.2x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 3.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 3.1%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ADT: 25.6%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 40.0%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 29.1%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ADT: 14.5%)

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ADT: 3.1% | 1.1x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ADT: 3.1% | 4.2x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 3.3%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 3.1%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ADT: 25.6%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 40.0%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 29.1%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ADT: 14.5%)

Best Bets in Consumer Discretionary

P/EBIT (Value for ADT: 4.3x)

P/E (Value for ADT: 8.9x)

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 3.1%)

Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 3.3%)

Rev Chg Q (Value for ADT: 0.9%)

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 25.3%)

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Market Price (5/17/2026): $6.83 | Market Cap: $5.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Market Price (5/17/2026): $6.83
Market Cap: $5.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialized Consumer Services