Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Market Price (2/19/2026): $689.42 | Market Cap: $30.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Market Price (2/19/2026): $689.42Market Cap: $30.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Key risksULTA key risks include [1] eroding market share in the prestige beauty segment due to intense competition and [2] rising inventory shrink from organized retail crime. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Key risksULTA key risks include [1] eroding market share in the prestige beauty segment due to intense competition and [2] rising inventory shrink from organized retail crime. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock has gained about 35% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Financial Performance and Optimistic Guidance. Ulta Beauty significantly surpassed analyst expectations for its third quarter of fiscal 2025, reported on December 4, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $5.14, beating the forecast of $4.52 by 13.72%. Revenue also exceeded estimates, reaching $2.86 billion against a $2.7 billion forecast, a 5.93% positive surprise, and net sales increased by 12.9% year-over-year. This strong performance prompted Ulta to raise its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting net sales of approximately $12.3 billion, an increase from its prior target of $12.06 billion, and comparable store sales growth between 4.4% and 4.7%, up from a previous range of 2.5%-3.5%. The company also anticipated improved operating margins of 12.3% to 12.4%, from a previous 11.9% to 12.0%.
2. Successful Strategic Expansion in International Markets and Wellness. The company's "Ulta Beauty Unleashed" strategy proved effective through its international expansion and focus on the wellness category. Ulta debuted in Mexico in September 2025 and expanded into the Middle East with stores in Kuwait in November 2025 and the UAE in January 2026, signaling new avenues for growth beyond its established U.S. market. Domestically, Ulta tripled shelf space for wellness products in over 400 stores, which contributed to a remarkable 950% surge in comparable store sales within this category, significantly outperforming Wall Street expectations. Additionally, the launch of the UB Marketplace in October 2025, featuring over 100 new brands, enhanced customer choice and discovery.
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1. Exceptional Financial Performance and Optimistic Guidance. Ulta Beauty significantly surpassed analyst expectations for its third quarter of fiscal 2025, reported on December 4, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $5.14, beating the forecast of $4.52 by 13.72%. Revenue also exceeded estimates, reaching $2.86 billion against a $2.7 billion forecast, a 5.93% positive surprise, and net sales increased by 12.9% year-over-year. This strong performance prompted Ulta to raise its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting net sales of approximately $12.3 billion, an increase from its prior target of $12.06 billion, and comparable store sales growth between 4.4% and 4.7%, up from a previous range of 2.5%-3.5%. The company also anticipated improved operating margins of 12.3% to 12.4%, from a previous 11.9% to 12.0%.
2. Successful Strategic Expansion in International Markets and Wellness. The company's "Ulta Beauty Unleashed" strategy proved effective through its international expansion and focus on the wellness category. Ulta debuted in Mexico in September 2025 and expanded into the Middle East with stores in Kuwait in November 2025 and the UAE in January 2026, signaling new avenues for growth beyond its established U.S. market. Domestically, Ulta tripled shelf space for wellness products in over 400 stores, which contributed to a remarkable 950% surge in comparable store sales within this category, significantly outperforming Wall Street expectations. Additionally, the launch of the UB Marketplace in October 2025, featuring over 100 new brands, enhanced customer choice and discovery.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.6% change in ULTA stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 519.88 | 689.42 | 32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,655 | 11,982 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 9.9% | -3.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 25.9 | 33.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 20.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.5% | 25.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.9% change in ULTA stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 515.01 | 689.42 | 33.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,418 | 11,982 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.4% | 9.9% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.6 | 25.9 | 32.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 33.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 19.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.9% | 27.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 67.3% change in ULTA stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 412.15 | 689.42 | 67.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,362 | 11,982 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.6% | 9.9% | -6.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 25.9 | 61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 45 | 4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 67.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 67.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 44.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.5% | 46.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.1% change in ULTA stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 513.96 | 689.42 | 34.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,711 | 11,982 | 23.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 9.9% | -19.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.1 | 25.9 | 17.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 45 | 14.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 34.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 35.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 61.1% | 38.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ULTA Return | 44% | 14% | 4% | -11% | 39% | 17% | 146% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -14% | 26% | -18% | -6% | 15% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ULTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 45% | 55% | 47% | 45% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ULTA Max Drawdown | -3% | -17% | -21% | -35% | -28% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -45% | -34% | -33% | -43% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI. See ULTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ULTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 397 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 725.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 632 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI
In The Past
Ulta Beauty's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2023. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Ulta Beauty (ULTA):
- Like Sephora, but for all beauty budgets (mass market to high-end), with in-store salons.
- The Target of beauty, but with a broader selection of high-end brands and salon services.
- An Amazon for beauty products and services, but with physical stores.
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- Cosmetics & Makeup: A wide range of facial, eye, and lip makeup products from numerous brands.
- Skincare Products: Cleansers, moisturizers, serums, and treatments for various skin concerns.
- Haircare Products & Tools: Shampoos, conditioners, styling products, and appliances like hair dryers and straighteners.
- Fragrances: Perfumes and colognes from designer and prestige brands.
- Bath & Body Products: Lotions, washes, and treatments for personal care.
- In-Store Beauty Services: Professional hair styling, coloring, and treatments; brow and arch services; makeup applications; and facials provided in select store locations.
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Ulta Beauty (symbol: ULTA) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers, not to other companies. As such, it does not have major corporate customers in the traditional B2B sense.
Categories of Individual Customers Served by Ulta Beauty:
- The Beauty Enthusiast / Trend-Seeker: These customers are passionate about beauty, actively follow trends, and seek out new and innovative products, including prestige brands, indie labels, and exclusive launches. They often have a high engagement with Ulta's Ultamate Rewards loyalty program and are keen on exploring diverse product categories like makeup, skincare, haircare, and fragrance.
- The Everyday / Value-Conscious Shopper: This segment includes customers looking for their regular beauty staples, seeking convenience, and appreciating good value. They often shop across both mass-market and mid-tier brands, taking advantage of Ulta's competitive pricing, frequent sales, and the ability to find a wide range of essentials in one location.
- The Problem-Solver / Specific Need Shopper: These customers visit Ulta with a particular need or concern in mind, such as finding specialized skincare for acne, haircare for a specific hair type, or makeup that addresses unique preferences. They rely on Ulta's extensive product selection and the availability of specialized brands to find targeted solutions.
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- The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)
- L'Oréal S.A. (LRLCY)
- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- Unilever PLC (UL)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- Shiseido Company, Limited (SSDEF)
- Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX)
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```htmlKecia Steelman President and Chief Executive Officer
Kecia Steelman became Ulta Beauty's President and Chief Executive Officer in January 2025, after serving in various leadership roles since joining the company in July 2014. Before joining Ulta Beauty, Ms. Steelman held leadership positions at Target Corporation from 1993 to 2005, Home Depot from 2005 to 2009, and Family Dollar Stores from 2009 to 2014. As CEO, she has overseen Ulta Beauty's international expansion, including the July 2025 acquisition of UK retailer Space NK. Ms. Steelman also serves on the board of directors for The Bay Club Company, which is a KKR Portfolio Company, the Adler Planetarium, and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation.
Chris Lialios Interim Chief Financial Officer
Chris Lialios was named Interim Chief Financial Officer in June 2025, having served as Senior Vice President – Controller since 2018. Mr. Lialios joined Ulta Beauty in 1999 as assistant controller and has held increasingly responsible leadership positions within the company's accounting and finance organization since then.
Lauren Brindley Chief Merchandising and Digital Officer
Lauren Brindley was named Chief Merchandising and Digital Officer in June 2025. In this role, she is responsible for Ulta Beauty's merchandising, e-commerce, wellness, and marketplace functions. Ms. Brindley has over two decades of global beauty and retail expertise, and most recently served as Chief Executive Officer of Revolution Beauty, a UK-based beauty products company.
Amiee Bayer-Thomas Chief Retail Officer
Amiee Bayer-Thomas was named Chief Retail Officer in January 2025. She oversees all aspects of Ulta Beauty's store and services operations, including leading more than 1,400 store teams and the Ulta Beauty at Target partnership. Her responsibilities also include real estate growth and development, store design, and the company's loss prevention strategy.
Jodi Caro General Counsel, Chief Risk & Compliance Officer, and Corporate Secretary
Jodi Caro was named General Counsel and Corporate Secretary in August 2015. She leads strategic initiatives such as Ulta's ESG strategies and played a key role in negotiating the strategic partnership with Target. Ms. Caro's experience spans the retail, energy, and telecom industries. Prior to joining Ulta Beauty, she was Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary for Integrys Energy Group. Before Integrys, she owned her own law practice and was a co-founder and General Counsel of Looking Glass Networks, a privately held telecommunications company.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Ulta Beauty (ULTA) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the highly competitive beauty retail landscape, its susceptibility to consumer spending fluctuations, and challenges related to inventory and supply chain management.
- Intense Competition: Ulta Beauty operates in a highly competitive market with numerous players vying for market share. Key competitors include traditional beauty retailers like Sephora, which has expanded its presence through partnerships with stores like Kohl's, as well as online retailers such as Amazon, mass merchandisers, department stores, and emerging direct-to-consumer brands. This intense competition can lead to pressure on pricing, erosion of market share, and impact profitability, particularly in the prestige beauty segment where Ulta has reported a decline in market share. The shift towards online shopping further intensifies this competitive environment.
- Dependence on Consumer Spending and Economic Downturns: As a consumer cyclical company, Ulta Beauty's performance is closely tied to the overall economic climate and consumer discretionary spending habits. During periods of economic uncertainty, inflation, or elevated interest rates, consumers may reduce their purchases of non-essential items like beauty products, leading to softer demand and negatively impacting Ulta's sales and profitability. Management has noted a cooling demand in the beauty market, affecting various price points and categories.
- Inventory Management and Supply Chain Disruptions: Ulta Beauty is exposed to risks associated with effectively managing its inventory and maintaining a robust supply chain. High inventory levels can strain operating cash flow and profitability if products do not sell as anticipated. Furthermore, the company is vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical instabilities, natural disasters, or pandemics, which could result in product shortages, affect sales, and reduce customer satisfaction. Organized retail crime and theft also contribute to inventory shrink, posing a financial risk to the business.
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- The accelerating rise of social commerce platforms and the creator economy, which enables direct selling of beauty products from brands and influencers to consumers, bypassing traditional multi-brand retailers like Ulta. Platforms such as TikTok Shop are rapidly becoming significant direct shopping destinations.
- The increasing proliferation and strength of direct-to-consumer (DTC) beauty brands that primarily sell through their own websites and social channels, often choosing to limit or forego distribution through traditional retailers. This trend could diminish Ulta's unique product assortment and its role as a primary discovery hub for emerging brands.
- Amazon's growing focus and investment in expanding its presence within the premium and prestige beauty market. As Amazon works to onboard more high-end brands and address historical concerns around brand experience and authenticity, its unparalleled logistical capabilities and customer base could pose a significant long-term threat to Ulta's market share, particularly for replenishment purchases.
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Ulta Beauty (ULTA) operates in several key segments within the beauty industry, including cosmetics, skincare, haircare, fragrance, and salon services. The addressable markets for these main products and services, primarily within the U.S. region, are substantial.
Addressable Market Sizes for Ulta Beauty's Main Products and Services:
- Cosmetics (Makeup): The U.S. cosmetics market size was estimated at approximately 62.97 billion USD in 2023 and is projected to reach around 66.47 billion USD in 2024. Another estimate places the U.S. cosmetics market at 97.89 billion USD in 2024, with a projection to reach 149.53 billion USD by 2033. Globally, the cosmetics market was valued at an estimated 295.95 billion USD in 2023 and is forecast to grow to 445.98 billion USD by 2030.
- Skincare: The U.S. skincare products market was estimated at 22.90 billion USD in 2023, expected to reach 23.85 billion USD in 2024. Other data suggests the U.S. skincare market was valued at 30.01 billion USD in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to 39.81 billion USD by 2030. It is also estimated to be about 24 billion USD in 2025. The global skincare market is valued at approximately 162.11 billion USD in 2025, with projections to reach over 222 billion USD by 2030.
- Haircare: The U.S. hair care products market size was estimated at 20.84 billion USD in 2024 and is expected to reach 22.05 billion USD in 2025. Another source indicates the U.S. hair care market was valued at 17.01 billion USD in 2024, with an anticipation of growing to 20.86 billion USD by 2030.
- Fragrance: The U.S. fragrance market was valued at 6.9 billion USD in 2024 and is anticipated to reach 11.2 billion USD by 2032. Another report estimates the U.S. perfume market size at 9.3 billion USD in 2024, with an expectation to reach 18.6 billion USD by 2033.
- Salon Services: The U.S. hair salon services market was valued at approximately 60.6 billion USD in 2024 and 60.0 billion USD in 2025. For the broader U.S. professional beauty services market, it is expected to reach 75.87 billion USD by 2032. The global salon service market was estimated at 122 billion USD in 2024 and is expected to grow to 230.5 billion USD by 2034.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over the next 2-3 years:
- New Store Expansion: Ulta Beauty plans to accelerate its physical store presence, aiming to open 200 net new stores in the USA over the next three years, working towards a long-term target of over 1,800 stores. This expansion directly contributes to increased sales reach and customer access.
- Growth of Loyalty Program and Enhanced Guest Engagement: The company is focused on expanding its Ultamate Rewards loyalty program, with a goal of reaching 50 million members by 2028 from 44.4 million in Q3 2024. This growth, coupled with deeper guest engagement through community building and advanced personalization, is expected to drive repeat purchases and customer lifetime value.
- International Market Expansion: Ulta Beauty is actively pursuing international growth, with plans to debut in Mexico in 2025 through a franchising model. Additionally, the acquisition of Space NK in July 2025 signifies further pivotal growth initiatives in international markets.
- Expanded Product Assortment and Wellness Category Leadership: Ulta Beauty aims to drive revenue by curating a broader assortment of beauty and wellness products. Key initiatives include the launch of UB Marketplace in October 2024 to expand online product offerings, including exclusive and emerging brands, and establishing a leadership position in the wellness category with an expanded selection and enhanced customer experience. The company launched 19 new brands in Q1 2025.
- Omnichannel and Digital Acceleration: Investments in digital infrastructure are geared towards enhancing omnichannel capabilities, connecting physical and digital shopping experiences, and improving app engagement. E-commerce delivered mid-single-digit sales growth in Q3 2024, and continued digital acceleration is expected to be a critical engine for future growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In October 2024, Ulta Beauty's Board of Directors authorized a new $3.0 billion share repurchase program, replacing a prior authorization.
- The company expects to repurchase approximately $1.0 billion in shares for fiscal year 2024.
- Ulta Beauty repurchased 1.2 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $468.3 million during the first six months of fiscal 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In July 2025, Ulta Beauty acquired Space NK Limited, a British beauty retailer operating 83 stores in the UK and Ireland, as part of its international expansion strategy.
- The acquisition of Space NK was funded with cash on hand and capacity under Ulta Beauty's existing credit facility, with the financial terms undisclosed, though reported to be "well over £300 million" (approximately $408 million USD).
- Ulta Beauty is also pursuing international expansion initiatives in Mexico and the Middle East, with plans to open franchised stores and a joint venture.
Capital Expenditures
- Ulta Beauty anticipates capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 to range from $425 million to $500 million.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on new store openings, store remodels and relocations, investments in information technology systems, and supply chain optimization.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were reported at $435.3 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.8% |
| 01302026 | KSS | Kohl's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.6% | 13.6% | -1.0% |
| 01022026 | AAP | Advance Auto Parts | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 51.3% | 51.3% | -0.4% |
| 12192025 | KTB | Kontoor Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -10.3% |
| 12192025 | COUR | Coursera | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -21.8% | -21.8% | -24.2% |
| 02282025 | ULTA | Ulta Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.5% | 86.5% | -14.2% |
| 07312024 | ULTA | Ulta Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.5% | 41.1% | -13.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.0 |
| Rev LTM | 9,668 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,308 |
| FCF LTM | 994 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 528 |
| CFO LTM | 1,269 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,198 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.0 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 11.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce | 11,207 | ||||
| Cosmetics | 4,288 | 3,711 | 2,768 | 3,699 | |
| Fragrance | 1,429 | 1,208 | 738 | ||
| Haircare | 2,144 | 1,726 | 1,230 | 1,406 | |
| Other | 306 | 259 | 246 | ||
| Services | 306 | 259 | 185 | 370 | |
| Skincare | 1,735 | 1,467 | 984 | ||
| Other (nail products, accessories, and other) | 296 | ||||
| Skincare, Bath & Fragrance | 1,628 | ||||
| Total | 11,207 | 10,209 | 8,631 | 6,152 | 7,398 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce | 1,291 | ||||
| Total | 1,291 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $689.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 30.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/25/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $642.88 | $533.76 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.2% | 29.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.0% | 37.6% |
| Downside Capture | 1.04 | 62.98 |
| Upside Capture | 184.19 | 119.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 17.0% | 45.2% |
ULTA Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.25 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.87 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | 0.95 | -0.17 | -0.14 | 0.17 | 1.06 | 0.90 |
| Down Beta | -1.10 | -0.83 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| Up Capture | 84% | 171% | 170% | 104% | 108% | 42% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 61 | 129 | 371 |
| Down Capture | -69% | -11% | 37% | 60% | 79% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 31 | 64 | 121 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 88.8% | 37.6% | 1.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 3.8% | 24.2% | 0.10 | 46.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 44.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 73.5% | 25.5% | 2.13 | -3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 17.0% | 0.28 | 15.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 36.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.1% | 44.9% | -0.69 | 22.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 16.9% | 33.9% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.4% | 23.7% | 0.27 | 48.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.1% | 1.04 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.4% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 18.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 16.3% | 38.4% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 14.2% | 21.9% | 0.60 | 51.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.0% | 15.6% | 0.80 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 17.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.9% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/4/2025 | 12.7% | 11.1% | 22.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | -7.1% | -3.0% | 4.3% |
| 5/29/2025 | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
| 3/13/2025 | 13.7% | 8.4% | 14.9% |
| 12/5/2024 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | -4.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | 2.5% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.2% | -7.4% | -23.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.0% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 15.0% | 22.7% |
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -26.0% | -23.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10/31/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/25/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smith, Mike C | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 528.43 | 500 | 264,215 | 1,195,837 | Form | |
| 2 | Caro, Jodi J | GC, Chief Risk & Compl. Ofc. | Direct | Sell | 4022025 | 369.16 | 902 | 332,984 | 2,817,444 | Form |
| 3 | Steelman, Kecia | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 3242025 | 346.89 | 1,440 | 499,528 | 5,894,431 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.