Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $530.7 | Market Cap: $23.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $530.7Market Cap: $23.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Key risksULTA key risks include [1] eroding market share in the prestige beauty segment due to intense competition and [2] rising inventory shrink from organized retail crime. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Key risksULTA key risks include [1] eroding market share in the prestige beauty segment due to intense competition and [2] rising inventory shrink from organized retail crime. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Weak Fiscal 2026 Guidance for EPS and Sales.
Ulta Beauty's fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance of $28.05 to $28.55 fell slightly below Wall Street's expectations of approximately $28.40 to $28.57. Furthermore, the projected net sales growth of 6% to 7% and comparable sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% for fiscal 2026 represented a noticeable deceleration compared to the 9.7% net sales growth and 5.4% comparable sales growth achieved in fiscal 2025. This conservative outlook, despite a Q4 2025 revenue beat, triggered investor concern.
2. Significant Increase in Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses.
For Q4 fiscal 2025, SG&A expenses surged by 23% to $1.0 billion, reaching 25.7% of net sales, an increase from 23.4% in the prior year. This rise in operating costs, attributed to strategic enterprise investments, higher advertising spend, and increased incentive compensation, led to margin compression.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.7% change in ULTA stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 647.36 | 532.53 | -17.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,982 | 12,393 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.9% | 9.3% | -6.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 20.5 | -15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 44 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | -17.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.4% | 25.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.4% change in ULTA stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 519.88 | 532.53 | 2.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,655 | 12,393 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 9.3% | -9.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 20.5 | 5.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 44 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 2.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 23.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.2% | 27.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.6% change in ULTA stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 395.64 | 532.53 | 34.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,296 | 12,393 | 9.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.6% | 9.3% | -12.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 20.5 | 34.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 44 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 34.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.7% | 28.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.4% change in ULTA stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 551.43 | 532.53 | -3.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,209 | 12,393 | 21.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 9.3% | -23.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 20.5 | -8.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 44 | 14.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA | -3.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 35.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 63.7% | 38.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ULTA Return | 44% | 14% | 4% | -11% | 39% | -14% | 80% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -14% | 26% | -18% | -6% | -4% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ULTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 45% | 55% | 47% | 45% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ULTA Max Drawdown | -3% | -17% | -21% | -35% | -28% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -45% | -34% | -33% | -43% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EL, TGT, SBH, ELF, BBWI. See ULTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ULTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Ulta Beauty's stock fell -12.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ULTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 304.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Ulta Beauty's stock fell -12.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 14.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
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- Sephora, but with drug store brands and in-store salons.
- The Home Depot of beauty.
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- Cosmetics: A wide range of makeup products for face, eyes, and lips.
- Fragrances: Perfumes and colognes from various brands.
- Skincare Products: Products designed for facial and body skin care.
- Haircare Products: Shampoos, conditioners, treatments, and styling products.
- Bath and Body Products: Items for bathing, body cleansing, and moisturizing.
- Salon Styling Tools: Professional and consumer-grade tools for hair styling.
- Professional Hair Products: Hair products specifically formulated for professional use or professional-grade.
- Private Label Products: Cosmetics, skincare, bath products, and gifts sold under Ulta Beauty's own brands.
- Hair Services: Professional salon services including cuts, styling, and coloring.
- Skin Services: Treatments and consultations for facial and body skin.
- Makeup Services: Professional makeup application and artistic services.
- Brow Services: Services for shaping, tinting, and maintaining eyebrows.
- Nail Services: Manicures, pedicures, and other nail care treatments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) primarily sells its beauty products and services directly to individual consumers. The company operates as a retailer through its physical stores, e-commerce website (ulta.com), and mobile applications. Here are three categories of customers that Ulta Beauty serves:- Everyday Beauty Shoppers: This broad category includes individuals seeking a wide array of beauty products for their daily routines, ranging from cosmetics and skincare to haircare and fragrances. These customers appreciate Ulta's extensive selection of both mass-market and prestige brands, often looking for convenience and value.
- Beauty Enthusiasts & Trend Followers: These customers are more deeply engaged with the beauty industry. They frequently seek out new product launches, professional-grade items, and trending brands. They are often influenced by social media and beauty content, making more frequent purchases and often exploring higher-end or specialized products.
- Salon & Service-Oriented Customers: This category encompasses individuals who visit Ulta Beauty for its in-store salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services, as well as nail services. While they may also purchase products, their primary motivation for visiting is often to receive professional beauty treatments and consultations.
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- L'Oréal S.A. (LRLCY)
- The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)
- Coty Inc. (COTY)
- e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)
- Shiseido Company, Limited (SSCDF)
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Kecia Steelman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Kecia Steelman was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Ulta Beauty in January 2025. She joined Ulta Beauty in July 2014 and has held various leadership roles, including Senior Vice President of Store Operations, Chief Store Operations Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and President and COO. Before her tenure at Ulta Beauty, Steelman served in leadership positions at Family Dollar Stores from 2009 to 2014 and Home Depot from 2005 to 2009. Her career in retail began in 1993 at Target Corporation, where she held roles in retail operations and merchandising. Steelman started her career as a single mom working an $8-an-hour job at Target.
Scott Settersten, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary
Scott Settersten has served as Ulta Beauty's Chief Financial Officer since March 2013. He joined the company in January 2005 as Director of Financial Reporting. Prior to joining Ulta Beauty, Settersten spent 15 years with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as a certified public accountant, working in assurance and risk management practices. He oversees core accounting, finance, tax, treasury, risk and control, financial planning and analysis (FP&A), and investor relations activities, in addition to procurement, loss prevention, and real estate functions. Settersten also serves on the board of directors as the audit committee chair for Kimble International Inc.
Amiee Bayer-Thomas, Chief Retail Officer
Amiee Bayer-Thomas was named Chief Retail Officer in January 2025. In this role, she is responsible for all aspects of Ulta Beauty's store and services operations, leading 1,500 store teams nationwide, and overseeing real estate growth and development, store design, and the company's loss prevention strategy. She joined Ulta Beauty in September 2016 and previously held positions including Chief Store Operations Officer and Chief Supply Chain Officer. Before Ulta Beauty, Bayer-Thomas held leadership roles at various retail companies, including JCPenney and The Limited.
Jodi Caro, General Counsel, Chief Risk & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary
Jodi Caro has served as Ulta Beauty's General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer since August 2015. She also holds the titles of Chief Risk & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary, and Chief Privacy Officer. Prior to joining Ulta Beauty, Caro was Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary, and Chief Compliance and Ethics Officer for Integrys Energy Group for over seven years. She also founded and operated her own law practice, providing general counsel and corporate services to a range of companies. Caro was a co-founder and General Counsel of Looking Glass Networks, a privately held telecommunications company. She played a significant role in negotiating Ulta Beauty's strategic partnership with Target.
Monica Arnaudo, Chief Merchandising Officer
Monica Arnaudo has served as Ulta Beauty's Chief Merchandising Officer since joining the company in 2017, initially as Senior Vice President of Merchandising. She possesses over three decades of experience in the beauty industry. Arnaudo has held prior leadership roles at retailers and beauty companies such as Sephora, L'Oréal, Smashbox Cosmetics, Bare Escentuals, Estee Lauder Companies, and Chanel. She has been instrumental in diversifying Ulta Beauty's product assortment. Monica Arnaudo announced her plans to retire in the spring of 2025.
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```htmlKey Risks to Ulta Beauty's Business
- Intensified Competition and Potential Market Share Erosion: Ulta Beauty operates within a highly competitive beauty retail landscape, facing significant pressure from direct rivals such as Sephora (which has expanded its reach through partnerships with Kohl's), other specialty beauty retailers, and a growing presence of online platforms like Amazon. The company reported a loss of market share in the beauty category for the first time in 2024, indicating a heightened competitive environment and potential challenges in maintaining its market position. This intense competition, coupled with a "beauty normalization" period (a slowdown from post-pandemic highs), puts continuous pressure on Ulta to innovate and retain customers.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Shifting Consumer Spending: Ulta Beauty is susceptible to macroeconomic pressures, including persistent inflation and elevated interest rates, which can impact its core middle-income customers. These economic factors may lead consumers to reduce discretionary spending on beauty products or "trade down" to more affordable alternatives, directly affecting Ulta's sales, particularly in its prestige beauty segments. This represents a core external risk for the business, as fluctuating consumer sentiment and a more cautious consumer base could result in slower comparable sales growth.
- Operational Pressures and Margin Compression: The company faces several operational challenges that contribute to margin compression. Persistent retail theft, often referred to as "shrink," continues to be a notable drain on profitability, despite Ulta's investments in security measures. Additionally, as a business with a significant service component, Ulta is sensitive to rising labor costs and wage inflation for its skilled salon associates. Furthermore, the scheduled winding down of its "shop-in-shop" partnership with Target by August 2026 carries execution risk and will eliminate a royalty revenue stream, presenting a challenge that management aims to offset with other growth initiatives. Increased selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses due to strategic investments also contribute to pressure on operating margins.
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The rapid growth and integration of direct purchasing capabilities within major social media platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping), which allows consumers to discover and purchase beauty products directly through these apps, potentially bypassing traditional multi-brand retailers like Ulta Beauty for product transactions.
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Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates in several large addressable markets within the United States, offering a wide range of beauty products and salon services.
United States Beauty and Personal Care Products Market
The overall U.S. beauty and personal care products market was estimated at approximately $136.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand to about $195.83 billion by 2033. Other estimates place the market at $109.56 billion in 2025, expected to reach $196.33 billion by 2033. This broader market, including cosmetics, skincare, and haircare, was valued at around $107 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach $155 billion by 2033.
United States Cosmetics Market
The U.S. cosmetics market, which encompasses skincare, haircare, makeup, and fragrances, was valued at approximately $97.89 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $149.53 billion in 2033. Another report estimates the market at $67.54 billion in 2025, growing to $101.59 billion by 2032.
United States Skincare Market
The U.S. skincare market was valued at around $30.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $39.81 billion by 2030. Other data indicates the market was worth approximately $25.04 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about $36.56 billion by 2034. The skincare segment held the largest share of the U.S. beauty and personal care products market in 2023.
United States Haircare Market
In 2025, the U.S. haircare market was valued at approximately $23.21 billion, with projections showing growth to about $32.31 billion by 2034. Other figures show the market at $20.84 billion in 2024, expected to reach $22.05 billion in 2025. By 2035, the U.S. hair care product market is anticipated to reach $41.65 billion.
United States Fragrance Market
The U.S. fragrance market was valued at roughly $15.69 billion in 2024 and is estimated to attain $23.8 billion by 2033. Another report indicates a market size of $13.04 billion in 2024, projected to reach $17.18 billion by 2030.
United States Salon Services Market
The U.S. beauty salon market is projected to reach $95.99 billion by 2033, increasing from $53.19 billion in 2024. The hair salon market specifically in the U.S. and Canada was $57.4 billion in 2025, with an expectation to reach $91.1 billion in 2035. For hair salons in the U.S., the market size was $60.6 billion in 2024 and $60.0 billion in 2025.
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Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- New Store Expansion and International Growth: Ulta Beauty plans to continue its physical footprint expansion with 50 to 60 net new store openings projected for fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the company is embarking on international expansion, notably through a joint venture with Axo to launch and operate Ulta Beauty in Mexico in 2025. This is complemented by the acquisition of Space NK, which aids its presence in the UK market.
- Enhanced Product Assortment and Brand Launches: The company is focused on strengthening its product offerings by introducing new and exclusive brands and expanding strategic cross-category platforms. Recent successful brand launches, including Sol de Janeiro, Charlotte Tilbury, WYN by Serena Williams, and Kylie Jenner fragrance, have contributed to sales growth and new member acquisition. Ulta Beauty is also expanding its online marketplace with a wide array of established and emerging brands.
- Omnichannel Development and Digital Innovation: Ulta Beauty is investing in its digital platforms and "buy-anywhere and fulfill-anywhere" capabilities to enhance the customer experience. The company is increasing marketing investments across various digital platforms and recently announced an expanded strategic integration with TikTok Shop. Investments in AI and automation are also aimed at improving guest services and inventory management.
- Loyalty Program Enhancement and Customer Engagement: The Ultamate Rewards loyalty program is a significant driver of repeat business for Ulta Beauty. The company plans to enhance this program by offering more personalized rewards and experiences to its growing base of active members, which numbered 46.7 million as of fiscal 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- In fiscal 2025, Ulta Beauty returned $890.5 million to shareholders through share repurchases.
- As of January 31, 2026, $1.8 billion remained available under a $3.0 billion share repurchase program authorized in October 2024. This authorization replaced a previous program from March 2024.
- For fiscal 2026, Ulta Beauty plans to return approximately $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In fiscal 2025, Ulta Beauty strategically acquired luxury retailer Space NK.
- Ulta Beauty established a joint venture with Grupo Axo to expand internationally, opening its first store in Mexico City in August 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Ulta Beauty invested $434.8 million in capital expenditures during fiscal 2025. These investments focused on new stores, relocations, remodels, information technology systems, and supply chain optimization.
- For fiscal 2026, projected capital expenditures are expected to range from $400 million to $450 million.
- The primary focus for capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 includes opening 50 to 60 net new stores, optimizing the supply chain, and investing in information technology.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | MGM | MGM Resorts International | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | ELF | e.l.f. Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -6.2% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 02282025 | ULTA | Ulta Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.5% | 86.9% | -14.2% |
| 07312024 | ULTA | Ulta Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.5% | 41.1% | -13.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.7 |
| Rev LTM | 9,842 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,337 |
| FCF LTM | 966 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 545 |
| CFO LTM | 1,302 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.7 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.3 |
| P/EBIT | 13.2 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce | 11,296 | 11,207 | |||
| Cosmetics | 4,288 | 3,711 | 2,768 | ||
| Fragrance | 1,429 | 1,208 | 738 | ||
| Haircare | 2,144 | 1,726 | 1,230 | ||
| Other | 306 | 259 | 246 | ||
| Services | 306 | 259 | 185 | ||
| Skincare | 1,735 | 1,467 | 984 | ||
| Total | 11,296 | 11,207 | 10,209 | 8,631 | 6,152 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce | 1,201 | 1,291 | |||
| Total | 1,201 | 1,291 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $532.53 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/25/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $567.83 | $567.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.2% | -6.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.2% | 34.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.88 | 0.34 |
| Upside Capture | 23.98 | 81.51 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.7% | 25.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Up Beta | 0.97 | 0.76 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| Down Beta | -0.31 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 0.58 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| Up Capture | 34% | -5% | 32% | 89% | 73% | 40% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 18 | 30 | 61 | 128 | 366 |
| Down Capture | -56% | 159% | 118% | 87% | 69% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 25 | 34 | 64 | 123 | 386 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 34.4% | 34.9% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 18.2% | 18.7% | 0.76 | 28.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 25.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 15.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 6.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 10.2% | 34.3% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.8% | 0.24 | 48.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 45.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 7.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 9.8% | 38.3% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 51.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 16.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/12/2026 | -14.2% | -14.5% | -15.7% |
| 12/4/2025 | 12.7% | 11.1% | 22.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | -7.1% | -3.0% | 4.3% |
| 5/29/2025 | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
| 3/13/2025 | 13.7% | 8.4% | 14.9% |
| 12/5/2024 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | -4.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | 2.5% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.0% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 15.0% | 22.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.2% | -14.5% | -23.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales growth | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 42.9% | 2.0% | Higher New | Actual: 4.55% for 2025 |
| 2026 Comparable sales growth | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | -34.1% | -1.6% | Lower New | Actual: 4.55% for 2025 |
| 2026 Operating income growth | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 28.1 | 28.3 | 28.6 | 11.6% | Higher New | Actual: 25.4 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 400.00 Mil | 425.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 12.30 Bil | 2.1% | Raised | Guidance: 12.05 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 4.4% | 4.55% | 4.7% | 51.7% | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Operating Margin | 12.3% | 12.35% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 11.95% for 2025 |
| 2025 EPS | 25.2 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 5.3% | Raised | Guidance: 24.1 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mrkonic, George R JR | Direct | Sell | 4072026 | 539.29 | 452 | 243,759 | 1,285,128 | Form | |
| 2 | Smith, Mike C | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 528.43 | 500 | 264,215 | 1,195,837 | Form | |
| 3 | Caro, Jodi J | GC, Chief Risk & Compl. Ofc. | Direct | Sell | 4022025 | 369.16 | 902 | 332,984 | 2,817,444 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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