Tearsheet

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $535.865 | Market Cap: $24.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $535.865
Market Cap: $24.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ULTA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of Ulta Beauty's stock (ULTA) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Strong Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Performance: Ulta Beauty reported stronger-than-expected financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 on August 28, 2025, with earnings per share and revenue surpassing analyst estimates. This performance indicated effective cost management and robust consumer demand, contributing to the company's continued growth trajectory.

2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets: Analysts maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for ULTA and raised their price targets, reflecting optimism about the company's long-term potential. For instance, UBS reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a $680 price target, citing consistent beauty category demand and solid third-quarter results expectations.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ULTA Return13%44%14%4%-11%26%117%
Peers Return55%32%-18%-14%-3%23%74%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ULTA Win Rate50%67%67%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%63%45%50%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ULTA Max Drawdown-49%-3%-17%-21%-35%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-12%-39%-38%-32%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EL, SBH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY. See ULTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventULTAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven129 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven302 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven397 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven725.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven632 days1480 days

Compare to EL, SBH, TSCO, ULTA, CHWY


In The Past

Ulta Beauty's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2023. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ULTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
ULTA_2282025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282025ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.5%49.6%-14.2%
ULTA_7312024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312024ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%41.1%-13.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
ULTA_2282025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282025ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.5%49.6%-14.2%
ULTA_7312024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312024ULTAUlta BeautyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%41.1%-13.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ulta Beauty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ULTAELSBHTSCOCHWYMedian
NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Sally Be.Tractor .Chewy  
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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

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Returns

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NameUlta Bea.Estee La.Sally Be.Tractor .Chewy  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce11,20710,209   
Cosmetics  3,7112,7683,699
Fragrance  1,208738 
Haircare  1,7261,2301,406
Other  259246 
Services  259185370
Skincare  1,467984 
Other (nail products, accessories, and other)    296
Skincare, Bath & Fragrance    1,628
Total11,20710,2098,6316,1527,398


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce1,2911,242   
Total1,2911,242   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,282,503
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.9%
Average Daily Volume465,491
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.90
Basic Shares Quantity44,955,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025828202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025529202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025327202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241205202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024829202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024530202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024326202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231130202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023824202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023525202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221201202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022825202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022325202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211202202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Steelman KeciaPresident and CEO3242025Buy346.891,440499,5285,894,431Form