First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.925 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.925Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 192x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 192x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FWRG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. First Watch Restaurant Group reported lower-than-expected earnings for the quarter. The company announced earnings results on November 4th, reporting $0.05 EPS, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.08 by $0.03.
2. A major shareholder, Advent International L.P., executed significant insider selling. On September 8th, Advent International L.P. sold 4,400,000 shares of FWRG stock, valued at approximately $77.7 million. This transaction exceeded the USD 5 million threshold for consideration.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FWRG Return | - | - | -19% | 49% | -7% | -2% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FWRG Win Rate | - | 0% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FWRG Max Drawdown | - | - | -29% | -1% | -34% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FWRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 696 days | 464 days |
Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
First Watch Restaurant's stock fell -47.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -47.5% loss requires a 90.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FWRG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for First Watch Restaurant
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 26 |
| FCF LTM | 34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 28 |
| CFO LTM | 107 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 80 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 40.5 |
| P/E | 192.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 14.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3232022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. | 9102025 | Sell | 17.67 | 4,400,000 | 77,748,000 | 93,470,483 | Form | |
| 1 | Tomasso Christopher Anthony | President and CEO | 8152025 | Sell | 18.00 | 100,000 | 1,800,000 | 13,795,776 | Form |
| 2 | ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. | 8122025 | Sell | 17.70 | 5,000,000 | 88,500,000 | 171,509,177 | Form | |
| 3 | ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. | 6052025 | Sell | 14.70 | 4,500,000 | 66,150,000 | 215,939,825 | Form | |
| 4 | Jemley Charles | 5142025 | Buy | 16.50 | 15,000 | 247,500 | 381,711 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |