Tearsheet

First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.925 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.925
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 192x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 192x
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FWRG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. First Watch Restaurant Group reported lower-than-expected earnings for the quarter. The company announced earnings results on November 4th, reporting $0.05 EPS, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.08 by $0.03.

2. A major shareholder, Advent International L.P., executed significant insider selling. On September 8th, Advent International L.P. sold 4,400,000 shares of FWRG stock, valued at approximately $77.7 million. This transaction exceeded the USD 5 million threshold for consideration.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FWRG Return---19%49%-7%-2%8%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%8%-7%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FWRG Win Rate-0%33%67%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%15%18%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FWRG Max Drawdown---29%-1%-34%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFWRGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven696 days464 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

First Watch Restaurant's stock fell -47.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -47.5% loss requires a 90.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)

Better Bets than First Watch Restaurant (FWRG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FWRG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for First Watch Restaurant

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FWRGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameFirst Wa.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Price17.93-308.6025.1824.68-24.93
Mkt Cap1.1-0.40.2--0.4
Rev LTM1,169-387282--387
Op Inc LTM26-2447--26
FCF LTM-31-8134--34
FCF 3Y Avg-6-5428--28
CFO LTM130-10751--107
CFO 3Y Avg112-8056--80

Growth & Margins

FWRGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameFirst Wa.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Rev Chg LTM17.3%-6.9%-5.3%--6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.3%-1.7%4.2%--4.2%
Rev Chg Q25.6%-10.3%-6.6%--10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.8%-2.5%-1.8%--2.5%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%-6.2%16.6%--6.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.9%-8.1%19.8%--8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-1.0%-1.3%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.1%-27.7%18.2%--18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.1%-21.3%19.4%--19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%-21.0%11.9%--11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.3%-14.2%9.7%--9.7%

Valuation

FWRGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameFirst Wa.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Cap1.1-0.40.2--0.4
P/S0.8-1.11.2--1.1
P/EBIT40.5-61.29.3--40.5
P/E192.2-200.820.2--192.2
P/CFO7.3-3.96.5--6.5
Total Yield0.5%-0.5%5.7%--0.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%0.7%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%-17.5%6.6%--6.6%
D/E1.0-0.80.8--0.8
Net D/E1.0--0.10.7--0.7

Returns

FWRGGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameFirst Wa.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
1M Rtn13.1%--13.3%4.9%1.7%-3.3%
3M Rtn-2.4%--0.4%-29.4%---2.4%
6M Rtn15.2%-18.5%-37.8%--15.2%
12M Rtn-3.8%-37.8%-50.0%---3.8%
3Y Rtn14.1%-112.9%-71.6%--14.1%
1M Excs Rtn13.2%--13.2%4.9%1.7%-3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-9.3%--6.1%-35.6%---9.3%
6M Excs Rtn0.5%-3.8%-52.5%--0.5%
12M Excs Rtn-19.6%-33.1%-65.2%---19.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-56.1%-47.2%-143.8%---56.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,852,464
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.6%
Average Daily Volume1,638,541
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.96
Basic Shares Quantity61,027,278
Short % of Basic Shares8.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024311202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021323202210-K 12/26/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. 9102025Sell17.674,400,00077,748,00093,470,483Form
1Tomasso Christopher AnthonyPresident and CEO8152025Sell18.00100,0001,800,00013,795,776Form
2ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. 8122025Sell17.705,000,00088,500,000171,509,177Form
3ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. 6052025Sell14.704,500,00066,150,000215,939,825Form
4Jemley Charles 5142025Buy16.5015,000247,500381,711Form