Life Time (LTH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.01 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities
Life Time (LTH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.01Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Key risksLTH key risks include [1] substantial debt leverage and liquidity pressure indicating a possibility of financial distress, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Integrated Premium Wellness Services. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Integrated Premium Wellness Services. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Key risksLTH key risks include [1] substantial debt leverage and liquidity pressure indicating a possibility of financial distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LTH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Life Time (LTH) stock experienced a decline of approximately 6.9% due to several factors:
**1. Negative Market Reaction Following Q2 2025 Earnings:** Despite Life Time Group Holdings reporting strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, surpassing EPS and revenue forecasts and raising its 2025 outlook on August 5, 2025, the stock price declined by 6.58% in premarket trading. This unexpected negative market reaction to otherwise positive news may have set a cautious tone for the stock leading into the specified period.
**2. Analyst Price Target Reduction:** On November 12, 2025, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for LTH shares from $39.00 to $37.00, while still maintaining an "overweight" rating. A reduction in price targets from prominent analyst firms can contribute to negative investor sentiment and put downward pressure on a stock.
**3. Concerns Regarding Financial Leverage and Liquidity:** An analysis published on December 15, 2025, highlighted potential areas of concern in Life Time's financial health, specifically noting a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38, which suggests a significant reliance on debt financing. Additionally, the company's current ratio of 0.67 and quick ratio of 0.55 indicated potential liquidity challenges, which could weigh on investor confidence.
**4. Insufficient Sustained Positive Impact from Q3 2025 Earnings Beat:** Life Time announced strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations for both revenue and EPS, and subsequently raised its 2025 outlook. However, the stock's pre-market advance of approximately 1.3% following this positive announcement was not enough to reverse prior negative momentum, with the stock having experienced declines in the weeks leading up to the release.
**5. Absence of Overpowering Positive Catalysts:** While Life Time announced a new club opening in Otay Ranch, California, on December 15, 2025, and was named to the 2025 Fortune 100 Fastest-Growing Companies list on October 17, 2025, these positive developments did not generate sufficient sustained upward momentum to counteract other market pressures or underlying concerns during the period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LTH Return | � | � | -31% | 26% | 47% | 17% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -25% | 6% | 24% | -21% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LTH Win Rate | � | 50% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 53% | 40% | 58% | 50% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LTH Max Drawdown | � | � | -46% | -6% | -21% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -47% | -32% | -34% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLNT, PTON, LULU, GRMN, XPOF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 637 days | 464 days |
Compare to FUN, NOMA, NTV, TRON, AS
In The Past
Life Time's stock fell -58.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/26/2021. A -58.4% loss requires a 140.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LTH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Life Time
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,685 |
| Op Inc LTM | 409 |
| FCF LTM | 292 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 113 |
| CFO LTM | 593 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 463 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 24.1 |
| P/E | 16.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -63.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 5.3% | 0.5% | 6.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -9.7% | -2.6% | -2.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -6.7% | -11.3% | -12.0% |
| 1/16/2025 | 6.2% | 14.0% | 29.0% |
| 10/15/2024 | 1.4% | 0.5% | -5.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 6.0% | 9.7% | 13.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | 10.4% | 12.1% | 24.1% |
| 10/25/2023 | -15.2% | -17.3% | 7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 9.7% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.7% | -10.5% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 29.4% | 34.2% |
| Max Negative | -15.2% | -17.3% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10282024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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